Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track in GEFS
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1 Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track in GEFS Yuejian Zhu, Xiaqiong Zhou, Dingcheng Hou, Jiayi Peng Presented by Xiaqiong Zhou EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Hurricane Ensemble Workshop Miami 17 Nov. 2015
2 Outline GEFS upgrade -configuration -overall performance -TC track forecast Sensitivity study for degraded cases -cross test Conclusions
3 GEFS Upgrade V (OPR) (PARA) GFS Model Euler, 2012 Semi-Lagrangian, 2015 Resolution h T254 (52km) L42 (hybrid) T L 574 (34km) L64 (hybrid) Resolution h T190 (70km) L42 (hybrid) T L 382 (52km) L64 (hybrid) Initialization Scheme ETR EnKF Computational Cost 84 nodes (+ post process) 300 nodes 1 st segment 250 nodes 2 nd segment Execution time 55 min 35 min 1 st segment 30 min 2 nd segment Output resolution 1 O x 1 O 0.5 O x 0.5 O for 0-8 days 1 O x 1 O the rest Output frequency 6h 3h the first 8 days; 6h the rest 3
4 Initial Perturbations from ETR and EnKF NH SH Tropics Zonal wind EnKF implementation EnKF Major upgrades: T254L42 to T574L64 Use SPPT suite 2012 implementation
5 TC Initial Perturbations in GEFS (Liu et al. 2000, 2006) 6 hour forecast ensemble (ETR-> EnKF) TC is separated from Environment flow TC component is centered to the observed location TC perturbations are added to analysis PP = CC (XX XXXX) XXXX / XX XXXX C=0.05, Xc is the control, X is the square root of the sum of X over the whole hurricane area
6 685 cases 77% 2% improvement of 7-day forecast AC score 75% 9.20d 9.52d About 8 hours improvement of skillful forecast On average, model will take about 10 years to extend one day skillful forecast 6
7 TS track errors for seasons Statistics for all basins GEFS PARA Errors (miles) % error reduction for 72 hours track forecast Based on last 4 seasons Forecast (hours) Cases
8 TS track errors for seasons Atlantic Courtesy of Andrew Penny (NHC) EP EP NWP
9 The deviation of TC location from the OBS over Atlantic ( ) 6 day FCST Hurricane Nadine (2012) accounts for 30 in 77 total cases 1500 PROD 1500 PARA Series1 Nadine Michael Edouand Series1 Nadine Michael Edouand
10 PROD PARA Nadine (2012 Michael (2012) Edouard (2014)
11 Atlantic 2015 AL03-12, 07/08-11/09 GEFS-T574 in AVNO----GFS-T1534 AEMN----GEFS-T254 PARA ----GEFS-T574 AVNO AEMN PARA Track error(nm) Forecast hours CASES
12 Cross testing (initial.vs model) PROD PARA Models T254L42 (EU) T574L64 (SL) Analysis PROD PARA (Initial Pert.) (BV-ETR) (EnKF) Test one: Prod (BV-ETR) and T254L42 (EU) - Opr Test two: Prod (BV-ETR) and T574L64 (SL) Test three: Para (EnKF) and T254L64 (EU) Test four: Para (EnKF) and T574L64 (SL) - Para
13 Same initial Diff. model GEFS opr INI: Opr-BV-ETR MDL: T254EU INI: Opr-BV-ETR MDL: T574SL Diff. initial Same model EDOUARD Ini: Diff. initial Same model Same initial Diff. model INI: Para-ENKF MDL: T254EU GEFS para INI: Para-ENKF MDL: T574SL
14 Same initial. Diff model GEFS opr INI: Opr-BV-ETR MDL: T254EU INI: Opr-BV-ETR MDL: T574SL Diff. initial Same model EDOUARD Ini: Diff. initial Same model INI: Para-ENKF MDL: T254EU Same initial Diff. model GEFS para INI: Para-EnKF MDL: T574SL
15 Same initial Diff. model GEFS opr INI: Opr-BV-ETR MDL: T254EU INI: Opr-BV-ETR MDL: T574SL Diff. initial Same model ISAAC Ini: Diff. initial Same model Same initial Diff. model INI: Para-EnKF MDL: T254EU GEFS para INI: Para-EnKF MDL: T574SL
16 Summaries and Discussions New GEFS improves large-scale weather pattern forecasts New GEFS overall improves TC track forecast ( ). Significant improvement is seen in WNP. Slight better forecasts in EP and Atlantic up to day 4,but a slight degradation in 6-7 day track forecast The model and analysis cross testing of the production and parallel shows that the degradation of 6-7 day track forecast in Atlantic is likely related to the initial conditions. Further study is needed in the future Positive in the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season On-going study: 1) Higher resolution 2) Larger ensemble size? 3) Tuning TC perturbations 4) To find why 6-7 day track forecasting degraded
17 00/12Z, Atlantic TC track verifications (7-days) AVNO PRHS AEMN T574 Track error(nm) AVNO----GFS oper. PRHS----GFS paral. AEMN----GEFS oper. T GEFS paral Forecast hours CASEs
18 AL03-11, CP01-08, EP04-17, WP09-23, 07/08-10/06, AVNO AEMN PARA summer Track error(nm) Forecast hours CASES
19 Previous work ETR vs EnKF w/o relocation 2011 hurricane season Euler T254L42 GFS Blue bar: Bootstrap test EnKF 2012 version Case No
20 Why TC relocated Without relocation From Yochiro Ota With relocation
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