Discussion about validation and diagnostics An introduction
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1 Discussion about validation and diagnostics An introduction Kalle Eerola FMI
2 Introduction Traditionally we have verified models against Conventional observations (synop, soundings) Against analysis (field verification) Computes statistical numbers Rms-error, bias Anomaly, tendency correlation This is still reasonable, when we are in synoptic scale What to do when going to higher resolution? Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
3 Mesoscale verification and validation working group During the Oslo HIRLAM-ALADIN mini-workshop on 12 and 13 December 2005 it was decided to create a small working group on the verification of special cases for physics development. A comprehensive set of representative test cases Covering the average weather types for which it is important for our models to perform well. Test cases can be used for testing schemes in a more general way and for a larger variety of circumstances than is usually done in validation exercises. The cases to be selected are not the most extreme ones, but average day to day weather that is also important to forecast correctly sometimes overlooked in the testing and validation of new or updated schemes. Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
4 Workplan Website the cases and their descriptions a description of the verification data and where to find this data set up a verification data database collect proposals for weather types that need to be validated/verified collect one or two cases per weather type and describe these cases Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
5 Workplan (2) Collect one or two cases per weather type and describe these cases general weather with some maps, satellite images or any relevant special data the specific weather type of interest importance for which part of the physics Decide what data to collect in the verification database depending on the case Synops, radiosondes, precipitation data, radar (if relevant), boudary layer data radar data or high resolution precipitation network data satellite data data from special observation sites like Sodankylä or other masts radiation measurements ceilometer network measurements regular data but with high temporal resolution, cloud radar data, wind profiler data etc. etc. Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
6 Workplan (3) make an inventory of the validation/verification tools available within the different consortia collect the tools and make them available for the working group and other persons interested develope new tools validation/verification of the cases with the different models, make a comparison of the different models to learn from each others strengths and weaknesses. Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
7 Possible cases Orographic precipitation and precipitation shadows behind mountains Shallow, fiar weather cumulus under high pressure conditions Stable boundary layers, very low temperatures over snow in winter (Mariska Derkova, Kalle Eerola) The decrease of convection over land (Sander Tijm) Daily cycle of precipitation Low clouds and fog development (Sander Tijm, Gwennaelle Hello) Persistent low clouds Rapid cyclogenesis Anticyclonic situations over Central Europe Onset of (severe) summer convection Squall line evolution Cold fronts with heavy rainfall Mesoscale convective systems/complexes Sea/lake breezes, possibly initiating deep convection, mountain and/or valley winds Wind in front of, over, between and behind mountains Coastal fronts Organised convection due to land/sea distribution Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
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14 Examples: Convection dying down inland Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
15 Examples: Convection dying down inland Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
16 Example of a new tool: radar reflectivity Niemela and Fortelius (2004) Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
17 Questions What is a minimum set for the sanity check of future models How can we show additional value of mesoscale model? What data can we use in the validation & verification of current and future models? What (new) tools/output do we need to make good/optimal use of mesoscale model? What are the important weather types? Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
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