Filippo MAIMONE Climate Department CNMCA (Operational Meteorological and Climate Center) Italian National Meteorological Service.

Transcription

1 WMO Workshop on Climate Monitoring including implementation of Climate Watch Systems in RA VI Offenbach, Germany, from October 2010 Filippo MAIMONE Climate Department CNMCA (Operational Meteorological and Climate Center) Italian National Meteorological Service. Presentation Actual status and priority needs of Italian Climatological Service in monitoring and predicting climate anomalies and extremes.

2 Mountains, Land..Sea..a good place to test climate models!!

3 ELECTRONIC ARCHIVE: 60 YEARS-LONG DATA + homogenization WEB interface

4 Anomalies with respect to CliNo Monitoring of intense climatic events : the monthly bulletin Thunderstorm supercell (December 2009) December 2009 Extremes update

5 Analisys of case studies of extreme events (multi-purpose activity)

6 Strong wind events over the area of Rome (period: July 2008 February 2009) Convective event Frontal system passage

7 A mesoscale convective system : the event of 04/11/08 over ROME Wearther station Pratica Di Mare Direction Max wind intensity (Km/h) S Fiumicino SW Ciampino SW Roma Urbe SW Guidonia SW Local time

8 Strong wind associated with the passage of a frontal system (18/02/2009) Frontal system over Europe station measurements Satellite images (IR and water vapour)

9 Studies on climatic extreme events in models and obs. problems : 1) change detection in the extremes statistics; 2) how to cope with non-stationary climatic time series? # of extremes updates Time-dependent distribution of a single station PEPS project (France-Italy) on mathematical methods of climate theory, including extremes in GFD dynamical systems.

10 THE ACTION OF WIND ON THE STRUCTURES : CONSTRUCTION OF NEW EXTREME WIND MAPS FOR ENGINEERING NORMATIVE PURPOSES AND CIVIL PROTECTION. current map of extreme wind zones

11 SYNOPs, SYREPs, METARs SYNOP 3-hours message SYREP daily message / / 6090/ 7060/ 8//// 9//// /// METAR 1-hour message METAR LCLK Z 11009KT 9000 NSC 20/16 Q1016 NOSIG= wind as a vector visibility Temperature and dew-point QNH METAR: low numerical information but 24 times in a day!! IS IT USEFUL FOR CLIMATOLOGY?

12 WIND: AUTUMN GUSTS > 30 KT ν ν

13 Seasonal projections: THE PROTHEUS SYSTEM (ENEA) project at CNMCA Components RegCM3 18 vertical sigma levels 30 Km horizontal resolution BATS + IRIS BATS: Biosph. Atmosph. Transfer Scheme IRIS: interactive RIvers Scheme SST OASIS 3 Freq. 6h MedMIT Vento-Flussi di calore ed acqua 42 zeta vertical levels (partial cell) 1/8 x 1/8 horizontal resolution Model domain

14 Current work: - validation of the model; - statistical/stochastic downscaling. Stations subset used for validation Clusterization of climatic zones Stochastic downscaling for rainfall

15 WMO Workshop on Climate Monitoring including implementation of Climate Watch Systems in RA VI Offenbach, Germany, from October 2010 Summary of needs and priorities For monitoring : efforts to collect and integrate more climatic databases, from different instrumental measurements (satellite, radar, refined stations measurements, Lampinet system, etc.), and elaborated using several statistical/modeling techniques (reanalysis, non-linear statistical tools, etc.). For prediction : implementation of a system of seasonal forecasts giving projections of possible intense weather conditions (like, e.g., 2003 summer) and related probabilities, with a spatial scale as refined as possible(!)

16 Thank you for attention!