Introduction to NCEP's time lagged North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble Forecast System (NARRE-TL)
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1 Introduction to NCEP's time lagged North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble Forecast System (NARRE-TL) Binbin Zhou 1,2, Jun Du 2, Geoff Manikin 2 & Geoff DiMego 2 1. I.M. System Group 2. EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA 15th Conference on ARAM, Aug 1-4, 2011, Los Angles, CA
2 Content Background NARRE-TL configuration Products Evaluation (compared to VSREF) Future work Summary
3 Background RR will be implemented at NCEP in fall of 2011 to replace RUC RR: same purpose for aviation, same hourly cycles, same 18 forecast hours, and same resolution as RUC (13km), but with more advanced WRF-ARW model and GSI analysis system, covers larger N.A. domains plus Alaska NCEP and GSD agreement: 3 WRF-ARW and 3 WRF-NMMB members will be combined to generate N.A. RR Ensemble (6 member NARRE) Before 6-membered NARRE emerging, first build a Time-lagged NARRE system based on current RR and operational NAM. Benefits: (1) Fully utilize existing hourly output RR data (2) Replace VSREF to provide probabilistic guidance to aviation weather (3) Very low computing resource demand (just post processing) (4) Provide a baseline to future NARRE/HRRRE development/evaluation
4 Configuration 10 weighted time-lagged members collected: 6 NCEP s parallel RR members (9 months parallel RR: March ~ Nov 2011) 4 operational NAM members NARRE-TL Alaska, ( grid#242 ) Output grids: Grid#130 over CONUS (same as RUC/VSREF) Grid#242 over Alaska Forecast hours: 12 hours (same as VSREF) NARRE-TL (grid#130) March/2011 RUC, VSREF Nov/2011 RUC, VSREF stopped RR native domain RR, NARRE-TL parallel RR, NARRE-TL operation
5 Member Weighting = 1 - forecast age (hr)/30: 1 for current fcst and 0 for 30hr-old fcst (NAM always older than RR gives more weight to RR members) RR s first 6 hr forecasts are used up for time-lag Example for 06Z cycle s NARRE-TL: NAM RR hr TL 12hr FCST
6 Ensemble product generation (post processing) Member 1 Member 2 Member 3 Member 4 Member 5 Member 6 Member 7 Member 8 Member 9 Member 10 Unified ensemble product generator User defined product list table Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 Product 4 Product 5 Product 6
7 Product Ensemble VSREF NARRE-TL Icing Occurrence prob on 8 FL Y Y Turbulence (CAT) 3 severity occurrence Prob on 9 FL Y Y Ceiling (cloud base) Mean/spread/prob of 4 ranges Y Y Visibility Mean/spread/prob of 4 ranges Y Y Low level Wind shear Mean/spread/occurrence prob Y Y Jet stream Prob on 3 levels Y Y Fog (light/dense) Mean/spread/prob (Zhou & Ferrier) Y Y Convection Prob of occurrence (Steve W.) Y Y Reflectivity Prob of 4 thresholds (Ferrier) Y Y Freezing height Mean/spread Y Y Precipitation type Prob of rain and snow types Y Y Accumulate Precip Prob of 3 and 6hr acc. precip Y Y Lightning Prob of occurrence (D. Bright) N Y Severe thunderstorm Prob of occurrence (D. Bright) N Y
8 Click link to download all NARRE-TL Hourly products in grib2
9
10 3hr. Accu. Prcp > 0.25 inch (6.35 mm) probability 6hr forecast, validated 15Z, Jun 22, 2011 VSREF NARRE-TL Stage4 Analysis
11 Reflectivity >30 dbz Probability 6hr forecast, Jun 22, 2011 VSREF NARRE-TL MOSAIC
12 Icing probability 6hr forecast at FL240, Jun 22, 2011 VSREF NARRE
13 Severe CAT probability 6hr forecast at FL300, Jun 22, 2011 VSREF NARRE
14 Ceiling < 1000 feet probability 6hr forecast, Jun 22, 2011 VSREF NARRE
15 Vis < 1 mile probability 6hr forecast, Jun 22, 2011 VSREF NARRE
16 Low level wind shear occurrence prob 6hr forecast, Jun 22, 2011 VSREF NARRE
17 Convection occurrence probability 6hr forecast, Jun 22, 2011 (both use Steve W. method) VSREF NARRE
18 Probabilistic verification example (accumulated Apr 28 ~ Jun 29, 2011) Icing probability forecasts of NARRE-TL and VSREF against ADDS-CIP Icing Reliability at FL090 (725mb) Against ADDS-CIP Icing Reliability at FL180 (500mb) Against ADDS-CIP Ovserved frequenc NARRE-TL VSREF Ovserved frequenc NARRE-TL VSREF Forecast frequency Forecast frequency
19 Next Steps Keep NARRE-TL running and data flow after RR operational More verifications HRRRE-TL over CONUS (Geoff D. Suggested) 4km NAM-nest, 4km HRW-ARW, 4km HRW-NMM, 4km Pyle (for SPC runs), 3km HRRR (GSD runs)
20 Summary Based on NAM and NCEP s parallel RR runs, a 10-member time-lagged ensemble system NARRE-TL was first experimentally developed NARRE-TL has similar configuration in file structure and timing as VSREF, similar aviation products, but added 2 more products (lightning and severe thunderstorm probabilities) After parallel RR transits to operational RR in Nov 2011, NARRE-TL will continue run but VSREF will be stopped. Primary evaluations show a little bit stronger fields, better POD for NARRE-TL than VSREF. More evaluations will be focused.
21 THANKS!
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