University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez Campus Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying

Transcription

1 University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez Campus Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Dwight D. Eisenhower Fellowship Program Proposal Mayagüez s Dynamic Demand / Supply Model in the Aftermath of an Extreme Event Submitted by: Josué A. Plúguez, Master student josueap@gmail.com Advisor: Didier Váldes, PhD dvaldes@uprm.edu Submitted to: Benjamín Colucci, PhD, PE, PTOE bcolucci@uprm.edu September 14, 2006

2 Table of Content Table of Content... i 1.0 Introduction Problem Justification Objective General Background Mayagüez Hurricane Earthquake and Tsunami Simulation Methodology Gantt chart Reference Appendices i

3 1.0 Introduction The events of Hurricane Katrina and September 11, 2001 brought to focus the necessity to improve the Homeland Security Department, local government agencies and private agencies to tackle the ongoing efforts in the affected area. Modeling and simulating offers the opportunity of effectively improving the emergency response. In addition it provides the tools that response agencies may use to plan their response to specific situations. The development of dynamic supply chain models in conjunction with a transportation network will create a framework in which the agencies can foresee their way to respond and be prepared. Modeling the dynamics between the needs and supplies of critical resources in the aftermath of an extreme event is the goal of this research. The model accounts for both dynamic demand and supplies and is solved efficiently using specialized versions of network flow algorithms. Extreme events will be defined as natural disasters (e.g., Hurricanes, Tsunamis, earthquake, floods, etc) and those that are man-made (e.g., terrorism attacks). For each one of them the preparation may be different because in some instances there will be some time of preparation and yet others will be totally unexpected, but in of all them there is a need to know for the more effective way to handle the situation. 1.1 Problem Justification The importance of establishing a coordinated plan in which you get into view all the framework of the emergency response give to any agencies the tools to move in a better effective way the needs and supplies. The impact of the warehouses, shelters, hospitals and other facilities involve with the performance of these facilities by means of specialized open queuing networks. The synchronization of flows in and out of these facilities is fundamental for get a more effective response. 1.2 Objective Model the dynamics between the needs and supplies of critical resources in the aftermath of an extreme event is the goal of this research. 1

4 To simulate and analyze the best way to respond to an extreme event. The creation of a dynamic supply chain model. The integration of emergencies facilities with the transportation framework related to critical supplies of the city or territory. 2

5 2.0 General Background For this case the research project will be focus in modeling and simulating dynamics demands/supplies and the needs for a study area. The study area will be the Mayagüez jurisdiction. This gives to the research a scenario in which you will have an urban-metropolitan area, a rural area, and a place in which has a good probability that happen an extreme natural disaster. 2.1 Mayagüez Mayagüez is the fifth-largest city of the island of Puerto Rico and the most important city for the western side of the island. Its land area is km 2 in which includes the uninhabited Mona Island as a subdivision. In its jurisdiction have a water area of km² for a total of km². Mayagüez has a population of 98,434 by the 2000 census with a density of persons / km². The population is spread over 21 wards and Mayagüez Pueblo (The downtown area and the administrative center of the city). The Mayagüez coordinates are N, W (see Appendices 1). Mayagüez have the in its jurisdiction the University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez Campus (UPRM), the Caribbean s leading science and engineering institution. Mayagüez has the only zoo of the island as other attractive places. Mayagüez has a port and an airport as part of the infrastructures of the city. And is the only jurisdiction that has a tsunami zone. 2.2 Hurricane The Atlantic hurricane season start in June 1 to November 30, this gives to Mayagüez 6 months of probabilities to be affected by this natural phenomenon. The location of Puerto Rico put it as a good target because is located in the north-eastern side of the Caribbean. The hurricane is natural phenomenon that has an evolution process to reach the hurricane status. For this reason, citizen within the hurricane route have the opportunity to be prepare. To become a hurricane first this tropical cyclone must first passes through two intermediate stages known as tropical depression and tropical 3

6 storm. They start over the oceans as a collection of storms in the tropics. The deepening low-pressure center takes in moist air and thermal energy from the ocean surface, convection lifts the air, and high pressure higher in the atmosphere pushes it outward. Rotation of the wind currents tends to spin the clouds into a tight curl; as the winds reach gale force, the depression becomes a tropical storm. The mature hurricane is nearly circularly symmetrical, and its influence often extends over an area 500 mi (805 km) in diameter. A hurricane has a low central pressure (often around in / 960 millibars) and has a surface air spirals inward cyclonically (counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere), it converge on a circle of about 20 mi diameter call hurricane s eye. The circumference of the eye wall, where the inward-spiraling, moisture-laden air is forced aloft, causing condensation and the concomitant release of latent heat; after reaching altitudes of tens of thousands of feet above the surface, this air is finally expelled toward the storm's periphery and eventually creates the spiral bands of clouds easily identifiable in satellite photographs. The eye have the characterization to have the maximum wind speed, this is because the outward increase in pressure is greatest there. Because the island of Puerto Rico has a dimension of 100 mi 35 mi, when a hurricane hit the island, every corner of Puerto Rico (including Mayagüez) is affected by this natural phenomenon (see figure 1). Figure 1: Frequency of Hurricanes that touch land portion 4

7 2.3 Earthquake and Tsunami The Seismic Network of Puerto Rico says: Puerto Rico is located in a zone of contact between the North America the Caribbean tectonic plate, this contact has generated a series of faults around and across the island some superficial (5-10 kilometers) and others deep (up to 180 km). Tremors therefore occur in all areas of the island. The southwestern region is most active and the faults are more superficial which lies why the movements feel stronger in this area. Regarding the danger of earthquakes, at this moment the building code of construction of Puerto Rico (UBC, 1997) establishes two zones of danger (on a scale from 0 to 4, where 4 indicates the maximum danger), the Virgin Islands, Culebra and Vieques are in a "4" zone and the island of Puerto Rico in a zone 3. This put a Puerto Rico and all of the cities in a dangerous place, because is located in the limit between the plates of North America and the Caribbean. There is evidence of oblique subduction and lateral displacement between the two plates. The seismic activity is concentrated in eight zones (see figure 2): 1. Puerto Rico Trench 2. Slope faults in the North and South of Puerto Rico 3. Northeast of "Zona del Sombrero" 4. To the west, at the Mona Canyon 5. Mona Passage 6. To the east, in the depressions of Virgin Islands and Anegada 7. Muertos Depression to the South 8. Southeast of Puerto Rico. 5

8 Figure 2: Puerto Rico Seismic Zones In addition because is an active zone of seismic as can be seen in figure 3. Figure 3: Seismic Detected 6

9 A new investigation with the sponsor of the USGS says: While the seismic hazard appears to be less severe than was previously estimated from generic models, tsunami hazards may be more severe. The occurrence of continuous retrograde slumping (with new slumps occurring progressively farther upslope) on the Caribbean plate, the observation of large cracks on the slope north of Puerto Rico, and the discovery of giant landslides on the down going North American plate all highlight the potential for future submarine landslides, which could trigger damaging tsunamis. Mayagüez became the first city of Puerto Rico to have a Tsunami Evacuation Map (see figure 4), giving the leadership in the Caribbean to have such tool. Figure 4: Mayagüez Tsunami Evacuation Map 7

10 2.4 Simulation Simulation is one of the most powerful analysis tools available to those responsible for the design and operation of complex processes or systems. (C.D. Pegden, Introduction to Simulation Using SIMAN) Simulation model are created to accomplish the description of the system behavior, to establish hypotheses and to predict future behavior. In the process of creating a model the first step is to specify its purpose. There are two main types of models, one is the iconic and the other is symbolic. The ionic simulation model looks in a way like the real system, and its principal purpose is used for training personnel. The symbolic simulation model is the one that you get the mathematical and/or symbolic form of the properties and characteristics of the real system. The simulation that is going to be focus is one with a dynamic model; this is that the behavior of the system is going to be through time. The process of simulating is divided in the following steps: 1. Problem definition 2. Project Planning 3. System Definition 4. Conceptual Model Formulation 5. Preliminary Experimental design 6. Input Data Preparation 7. Model Translation 8. Verification and Validation 9. Final Experiment Design 10. Experimentation 11. Analysis and Interpretation 12. Implementation and Documentation This work will focus to the formulation of the model in appropriated simulation language, the data needed will not be the main topic of this research, but this information is needed to verify and validate the simulation model. This input will be provided by historical records or similar systems, but establishing new data is 8

11 needed to get an actual performance of the current system. The other part needed is to establish a framework in which all the simulation will go around it. 3.0 Methodology The first part of this research will have a time frame of ten month of work. The following actions will be established to the development of the dynamic supply model: 1. Interviews with stakeholders in charge of emergency response. 2. Identify the warehouse, hospitals, shelters, etc within the transportation framework. 3. Develop the various extreme event scenarios and the possible affected areas. 4. Create the network flow algorithms 5. Develop a dynamic simulation model of the system with simplified demands/supplies models. 6. Incorporate dynamic demand and supply models into the simulation. 7. Analyze various extreme event scenarios using this simulation model. 9

12 3.1 Gantt chart 10

13 4.0 Reference Puerto Rico Seismic Network: Online via < uprm.edu/english> Jain, Sanjay, McLean Charles. 2003, A framework for modeling and simulation of emergency response. Available online via < -cs.org/wsc03papers/132.pdf#search=%22simulation%20of%20emergency% 20respond%22> Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program: Online via < poseidon. uprm.edu/ Pegden, C. D., Shannon, R. E., and Sadowski, R.P., 1995, Introduction to Simulation Using SIMAN, McGraw-Hill Corp, Chapter 1 pages

14 5.0 Appendices 12

15 Appendices 1: Mayagüez Transportation Infrastructure 13