Weather management what s new?

Transcription

1 Weather management what s new? Giovanni LENTI Head of Network Operations 28/01/2016 Weather management -what's new?

2 VOSTOK ice cores: a history of the planet atmosphere 387ppm temperature change carbon dioxide level in atmosphere -400,000 years -300, , ,000 today today Courtesy of Doug Johnson - MET OFFICE

3 VOSTOK ice cores: a history of the planet atmosphere 387ppm temperature change carbon dioxide level in atmosphere 300 parts per million 200 ppm -400,000 years -300, , ,000 today today Courtesy of Doug Johnson - MET OFFICE

4 Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (ppmv): parts per million volume Temperature and CO 2 concentrations are linked Past: Natural changes in climate led to cooling (ice ages), CO 2, reduced greenhouse effect Present: Each 100 ppm = billion tonnes of CO 2 between ocean/land sinks and the atmosphere Human-induced CO 2, driving greenhouse effect, increasing warming Courtesy of Doug Johnson - MET OFFICE

5 Climate Change Is Happening Annual global average temperature, plotted relative to average (14 C) Courtesy of Doug Johnson - MET OFFICE

6 Potential impact on our Network Winter seasons will be shorter with decrease in number of snow/frost days Northern movement of snow line The expected temperature rises (summer in South Europe and in winter in North Europe) could impact take-off distances, fuel efficiency, de-icing and holiday traffic demand. Indications of poleward shift of the jet stream (no certain data on future intensity): impact on NAT entry points, airport prevailing winds and cross-winds, increase in storm intensity. More extreme convection is expected in Central Europe (less frequent, but greater intensity) and severe turbulence in terminal areas - increase in en-route delays Sea level rise could be greater than global projections causing flooding and coastal erosion - 40 major airports at significant hazard level

7 Weather delay evolution Airport Enroute Total (ap + e/r) ,208, ,262 2,922, ,400, ,280 3,284, ,845,673 1,022,456 3,868,129

8 2015 Aerodrome delays all reasons

9 2015 En-route delays all reasons Weather Strike in France ERATO LFRR

10 Aerodrome: top 10 weather delay locations in 2015 EGLL EHAM LTBA LSZH LTFJ EDDF LSGG EGKK LOWW EBBR

11 Objective of the Eurocontrol Weather Resilience Programme To counter ATM & airports reluctance to respond to anticipated wx threat. To articulate ATM service improvement in managing capacity impacting weather threats. To define capacity impacting wx phenomena & criteria. To develop an inclusive aviation response process. To define when a wx threat becomes a capacity issue. To source & share anticipation of a threat.

12 The Weather Forum: an obvious statement It is not possible (and very likely it will never be) to run airport or enroute operations (for ATC and Airports subject to a weather threat) without an impact in terms of delays for airspace users and passengers

13 It is possible to mitigate delays - 1 The conditions: WX threat anticipation (forecast, flow restrictions), moving from reactive to managed responses Common and agreed strategy and procedures among the actors: Airports, ATC, NM, AO, MET Understanding and sharing the processes/programme about impact of weather on ATM/airfield capacity Define (reduced) capacity values vs specific meteo phenomena

14 It is possible to mitigate delays - 2 The conditions: Tailored MET products to support Airport operators and ATC decision making Airports and ATC to use their own tools to assess threat and make all decisions Define recovery (exit) strategy Real time wx info in cockpits Presence of a MET expert in ACCs, TWR, AOCC would be an advantage The communication tools to share the MET info Post Operations with NM

15 The role of NM Impossible for the NM to reduce delays without your collaboration Develop NMOC wx procedures - completed To assist airports and ATC to develop, coordinate and execute response strategies (APT and NOS Units) - ongoing Impact assessment of a weather threat (strategic, pretact, tact) - ongoing NRT provides an alert to airfields and ATC for weather threats potentially impacting capacity currently available but under evaluation Pretactical, tactical and post operation support to FMPs/Airports to manage weather threats (ATFCM) - ongoing Airport positions in NMOC (trial to continue in summer 2016) - ongoing

16 What we expect from stakeholders Without a common strategy delays will increase Airport slot coordinators to respect the runway capacity to allocate airport slots Airport authorities to apply mandatory reduction of schedule in case of long lasting disruptive weather threats FMPs/Airport frequent decision changes often indicate a reactive mode rather than a planned strategy: the price to pay is CTOT instability and more ATFM delay to passengers Anticipate the threat and take a decision with local actors (Airport, MET, AOs) Contact in advance NMOC experts (AOLO, ATFCM) and keep close contact Follow their indications on the ATFCM strategy (avoid do as you are told )

17 Questions?