CMIP5 Overview. Karl E. Taylor. Presented to the. Barcelona, Spain 26 May Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)

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1 CMIP5 Overview Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison () Presented to the Barcelona, Spain 26 May 2010

2 Outline CMIP5 timeline and participating groups CMIP5 experiments Requirements for participation in CMIP5 Forcing Model and simulation documentation Defined vocabulary for uniquely identifying CMIP5 output Model output From model output producers to end users: The ESG Federation Observations in support of CMIP5 Model evaluation

3 CMIP5 timeline CMIP5 model simulations commence 2009/2010 Model output starts becoming available mid-2010 Model output that will likely be considered in time for IPCC available end of 2011 IPCC considers journal articles submitted 31 July 2012 IPCC considers journal articles accepted 15 March 2013 IPCC AR5 accepted by governments September 2013

4 CMIP5 participating groups (21?) Primary Group Country Primary Contact NERSC Norway M. Bentsen, H. Drange Hadley Centre U.K. M. Collins, C. Jones GFDL U.S.A. T. Delworth, I. Held, L. Horowitz, R. Stouffer IPSL & LMD France J-L. Dufresne, S. Bony NIES & U. Tokyo, Japan S. Emori, M. Kawamiya, M. Kimoto, CCCMA Canada G. Flato MPI Germany M. Giorgetta INGV Italy S. Gualdi EC-Earth consortium CSIRO & BMRC Europe Australia W. Hazeleger T. Hirst, K. Puri Primary Group CSIRO & QCCCE Country Australia Primary Contact L. Rotstayn, J. Syktus, S. Jeffrey NCAR U.S.A. J. Hurrell, J. Meehl MRI Japan M. Kimoto METRI (with Hadley Centre) Korea W-T. Kwon LASG IAP China T. Zhou, B. Wang NASA GISS U.S.A. G. Schmidt BCC China Q. Li, Y. You, Z. Wang, T. Wu, Y. Xu, INM Russia E. Volodin CERFACS & CNRM France L. Terray, D. Salas-Melia U. Reading U.K. L. Shaffrey NASA GSFC U.S.A. M. Suarez

5 CMIP5: Three Suites of Experiments Near-Term (decadal prediction) hindcasts & forecasts CORE (initialized ocean state) TIER 1 evaluation & projection CORE diagnosis TIER 1 TIER 2 Long-Term (century & longer) AMIP CORE time-slice TIER 1 TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 2 Atmosphere-Only (for computationally demanding and NWP models) Taylor et al. 2008,

6 An important focus is model evaluation and understanding... Example: CMIP5 long-term suite of experiments Model Evaluation Climate Projections ensembles: AMIP & 20 C last aqua planet (clouds) Control, AMIP, & 20 C E-driven control & 20 C RCP4.5, RCP8.5 E-driven millennium Mid-Holocene & LGM RCP8.5 1%/yr CO 2 (140 yrs) abrupt 4XCO 2 (150 yrs) fixed SST with 1x & 4xCO 2 Green subset is for coupled carbon-cycle climate models only Understanding radiation code sees 1xCO 2 (1%/yr or 20C+RCP4.5) carbon cycle sees 1XCO 2 (1%/yr or 20C+RCP4.5) Core: 1718 yrs Tier 1: 1727 yrs Tier 2: 2038 yrs

CMIP now involves many WCRP/IGBP partners Example: CMIP5 long-term suite of experiments Detection-Attribution (IDAG) Paleo (PMIP, IGBP- PAGES) Integrated Assessment Consortium (IAM), connection to

7 CMIP now involves many WCRP/IGBP partners Example: CMIP5 long-term suite of experiments Detection-Attribution (IDAG) Paleo (PMIP, IGBP- PAGES) Integrated Assessment Consortium (IAM), connection to WG-III + Dynamical and statistical regional downscaling (CORDEX) Cloud and moist processes (CFMIP-GCSS WGNE) Carbon-climate feedbacks (C4MIP, IGBP-AIMES) Chemistry, aerosols (SPARC, AC&C, CCMVal, aerocom)

8 CMIP5 Decadal Prediction Experiments additional predictions Initialized in 01, 02, prediction with 2010 Pinatubolike eruption 10-year hindcast & prediction ensembles: initialized 1960, 1965,, year hindcast and prediction ensembles: initialized 1960, 1980 & 2005 alternative initialization strategies AMIP Core: 480 yrs Tier 1: 1700 yrs

9 CMIP5 Atmosphere-Only Experiments (targeted for computationally demanding and NWP models) AMIP ( ) future time-slice ( ) patterned SST (clouds) uniform SST (clouds) Core: 40 yrs Tier 1: 185 yrs Tier 2: 30 yrs

10 CMIP5 website now in place (credit to Renata McCoy)

11 CMIP5 Modeling Info page

12 Forcing data available on CMIP website (or via links) Solar (based primarily? on Lean but spectrally resolved, or not) Historical and RCP emissions and concentrations (IIASA: different model used to produce each RCP; also available in different form from Juelich) Land-use (U. of New Hampshire Chini, Hurtt, Frolking) Ozone time-evolving 3D historical concentrations (AC&C/SPARC ozone) AMIP SSTs and sea ice () CFMIP Aqua-planet and idealized future pattern of SST (Hadley Centre) PMIP ice sheet reconstruction and other conditions (LSCE)

13 Compared with CMIP3, CMIP5 model documentation will be much more comprehensive and accessible. Three steps are involved: Develop a standardized vocabulary for describing models and model simulations Develop an interactive web-based questionnaire that makes it easier for modeling groups to provide the model and simulation documentation Place the information in a searchable database linked to the model output

14 Two collaborative and interacting groups have taken the lead on this Metafor a primarily European consortium led by Eric Guilyardi (2.2M over 3 years) Developing the schema and controlled vocabulary that will be used. Received exclusive endorsement from the CMIP panel to gather documentation. putting together the questionnaire Earth System Curator a primarily U.S. team led by V. Balaji and Cecelia DeLuca Providing tools for ingesting the information in the questionnaire. Designing web-based discovery tools for interrogating the documentation. Integrating these tools into the ESG framework.

15 Questionnaire screenshot: Summary page Centres can describe Input files and references. Centres can describe multiple models Courtesy of B. Lawrence & V. Balaji Every simulation in the CMIP5 archive needs to be described.

16 Requirements imposed on CMIP5 model output Key to CMIP3 success: modeling groups devoted resources to making output consistent across models CMIP5 builds on CMIP3, but with even more strictly controlled specifications and additional metadata: Adhere to defined vocabulary to ensure uniform unambiguous interpretation of metadata. Store in netcdf files with abundant metadata consistent with the CF conventions Construct consistent filenames across models

17 Requirements: Adhere to defined vocabulary for identifying CMIP5 output This is called the CMIP5 Data Reference Syntax (DRS) Specifies vocabulary for identifying models, simulations and the model output itself. This will facilitate data discovery and automated processing of CMIP5 output. For example, it will make the following filename understandable and unique: tas_amon_hadcm3_ historical_r1i1p1_ nc For more information, see:

18 Forcing short identifiers

19 CMIP5 output request is responsive to needs of a wide community of users Started with CMIP3 output list Suggestions received from dozens of scientists and groups, including WG2 scientists Lists developed by experts from various communities and other MIPs. Domains (number of monthly variables*) Atmosphere (60) Aerosols (77) Ocean (69) Ocean biogechemistry (74) Land surface & carbon cycle (58) Sea ice (38) Land ice (14) CFMIP output (~100) *Not all variables will be saved for all experiments and time-periods

20 Data sampled from annual to sub-daily timescales Temporal sampling (number of variables*) Climatology (22) Annual (57) Monthly (390) Daily (53) 6-hourly (6) 3-hourly (23) *Not all variables will be saved for all experiments and time-periods

21 Requirements: Model metadata in netcdf files includes Global attributes: for example experiment, modeling_realm, model_id, forcing (following DRS) tracking_id, creation_date ensemble member identifier (initial conditions, initialization_method, physics_version parent run and branch point. Variable attributes: for example Standard name and units CMOR software enforces and facilitates adherence to the CMIP5 requirements cell measures, cell methods, and coordinates attributes Coordinate attributes: for example Standard name and units bounds, axis

22 How will output be delivered to the scientific community? Sample model output produced and sent to for QC checks Model output produced and checked for compliance with some output requirements (by CMOR or CMOR-checker) METAFOR questionnaire completed generating model and simulation documentation Make data available via Earth System Grid Federation DOI s assigned to model output for reference by published literature Data served by ESG gateways via web interfaces

23 ESG Federation Archive Size Published ~2 petabytes Replicated ~1 petabyte

24 Released CMIP5 software CMOR2 for (re-)writing model output ESG data node software for archiving and publishing output ESG gateway software to deliver data to end users and provide portal services Registration Security Search and discovery Subsetting and server-side calculations Automated capability to inform users of database withdrawals/additions Use statistics (e.g., number of downloads categorized by model/expt./ variable)

25 Status of other CMIP5 software In development Metafor questionnaire Software integrating questionnaire results with ESG Replication software Link between ESG data archive and DOI references Some QC software Lacking/lagging Software to simplify production of gridspec files Functions needed for common server-side computations (framework exists) Framework and hooks in place for doing distributed computing, but this work is just beginning.

26 Parallel effort to serve observational data in support of CMIP5 JPL/NASA and are working together to provide access to observational data useful to CMIP5 The focus is on NASA satellite data sets that have model equivalents: AIRS, MLS, TES, QuikSCAT, CloudSat, Topex/Poseidon, CERES, TRMM, AMSR-E. The data structure and format will be identical to the model output. Documentation will be provided clearly describing the data and its limitations. The data will be made available via ESG The WGCM and WOAP are generally supportive of this and similar efforts. NOAA has initiated a parallel effort for their own data.

27 Model Evaluation A WGNE/WGCM Metrics Panel (Peter Gleckler, chair) is proposing a set of standard metrics for climate model evaluation. These should provide an overview of strengths and shortcomings of individual models. Eventually, the plan is to create a hierarchy of metrics and diagnostics, that will provide a more comprehensive picture of model performance. will calculate the standard metrics for CMIP5 models. will work with WCRP and IGBP panels to expand the breadth and depth of the performance metric hierarchy. A coordinated community effort will be required to write software for performing the calculations needed to populate the hierarchy.

28 Closing remarks CMIP5 is an ambitious step forward. Success depends on lots of new software, developed as part of an informally coordinated effort, working well together. Future progress depends on how well projects that are funded independently can communicate and maintain coordination. Suggestion to IS-ENES: Rely on those project members already contributing to the CMIP5 effort and the ESG Federation to identify areas where the current efforts can be fruitfully augmented.

NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC. Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD

NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD NCAR s climate model data A bit of history... 1960s - 1990s Self-designed self-implemented binary formats 1990s-2000s netcdf-3