Plan of The EAMEX Field Experiment (East Asian Monsoon Experiment)

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1 Plan of The EAMEX Field Experiment (East Asian Monsoon Experiment) I.. Summer Rainstorm Experiment II. Winter Rainfall Experiment 1 Scientific goal: 1) To explore genesis mechanisms, and structure/ dynamics of weather disturbances generating heavy rainfall in East Asia during the summer and winter monsoon seasons. 2) To improve forecasts of weather disturbances in East Asia during both seasons, particularly heavy rainfall events for reducing flood damage. 2

2 I.. Summer Rainstorm Experiment GMS IR A 1998 SCSMEX case JMA-sfc? 3 Climatology Contribution to rainfall onset onset 4

Scientific issues (Pilot Studies) 1) Importance of

Environmental flow b. Genesis mechanism c.

Structure & downscale development e. Dynamics f.

Dissipation process 3) Rainstorm Forecastability by

3 Scientific issues (Pilot Studies) 1) Importance of Rainstorms 2) Rainstorm Genesis Mechanism a. Environmental flow b. Genesis mechanism c. Diurnal variation d. Structure & downscale development e. Dynamics f. ydrological cycle g. Dissipation process 3) Rainstorm Forecastability by NCEP GFS 4) Intraseasonal Variation 5) Interannual Variation 5 1. Importance of rainstorms Rainstorm impact on Vietnam anoi anoi 13Z 5/27/2006

4 Disastrous impact on Taiwan 高雄縣寶來 ( 荖農溪 ) 6/9/06 The Flood of /9/06 嘉義南投縣仁愛鄉 6/9/06 6/9/06 嘉義 7 Rainstorm impact on southwest Japan June 1999 rainstorms June 1999 湯本地区 (southwest Japan) 2005 年 6 月 14~18 日までの間沖縄本島地方は観測史上最高の豪雨に見舞われましたの異常豪雨による土石流被害 (Southwest Japan)

5 Rainfall cycle season -1 Rainy season mmd -1 P Taiwan Break Active Taiwan rainfall Revival season -1 5/15-6/15 6/16-7/15 7/16-9/15 Rainstorm TC (Chen et al. 2004) (Wang and Chen 2007) 9 2) Rainstorm Genesis Mechanism a. Environmental Flows 200mb 400mb double- jets 600mb 850mb 10

6 θ/ y 11 b. Genesis mechanism African easterly waves Charney-Stern baroclinic instability 15 May ~ 15 June, Jet Jet m s -1 Instability 5ms mbms -1 12

7 c. Diurnal variation Early morning ate evening 00Z (07),Terrain 12Z (19) 300mb 925mb 13 d. Structure & downscale development

8 May, mb MTSAT & GFS 15 X X m 2 types of genesis atitude varies with time following the RS 2005 Northern Vietnam Northern Vietnam Northern SCS Northern SCS s -1 GFS initial analysis 16

9 from N. Vietnam Type 1 6/11-15/05, IR from N. SCS Type 2 6/14-17/05 V(600mb), IR 00Z 6/14/05 ζ, Z E CI:2x10-5 s -1 m 22 N 12Z 6/14/05 22 N 18Z 6/15/05 23 N 06Z 6/17/05 25 N

10 e. Rainstorm propagation The vorticity budget equation: ζ t = V (ζ + f ) (ζ + f ) V Vorticity tendency Vorticity advection Vortex stretching Case Jun,

11 f. Dissipation D process RS midlat. cyclone RS dissipated : MJ climate removed RS geneses g. ydrological cycle W t χ ψ + Q = E P Q = 2 [ Q D 2 Q = [ Q R, ] ] Q = Q R + Q D 2 ( P)

12 3) Rainstorm Forecastability by the NCEP GFS Case 2 (R7; June 11-15, 2005) Analysis Forecast (actual trajectory) (actual trajectory) 23, IR Analysis Case June 11-15, 2005 Forecast from 00Z 6/12/05 24

GFS forecast performance (MJ, 2005-2006) For the mid-tropospheric perturbation: (actual

RMS of dx between real & forecast trough locations depicted in v(600mb) ms -1 t=0 24 48 72

duration to reach Taiwan determined by trough location at 600mb 25 4) Intraseasonal

13 GFS forecast performance (MJ, ) For the mid-tropospheric perturbation: (actual forecasted) km (x-direction) Error of position 1 standard deviation RMS of dx between real & forecast trough locations depicted in v(600mb) ms -1 t= hr Error of propagation speed 1 standard deviation t= hr Average duration to reach Taiwan determined by trough location at 600mb 25 4) Intraseasonal Variation day mode day mode Variance of U-wind total day day SCS monsoon index 26

Case 1993 bandpass filtered Total rainstorm 3030-60 day 1212-24

14 Case 1993 bandpass filtered Total rainstorm day day 27 5) Interannual Variation Population of rainstorm (genesis) 28

15 Suggested Research Areas (1) Multiple-scale processes Interannual MJO day mode (cold surge) Synoptic disturbance (2) Tropics-midlatitude interaction East Asian monsoon life cycle Rainstorm genesis/development Monsoon onset (3) Regional hydrological cycle Contribution of rainstorm to hydrological cycle of northern Vietnam, Taiwan, and southern Japan prior to the East Asian monsoon break 29 Scientific objectives 1. ate spring/early summer rainstorms climatology, structure, basic dynamics, propagating mechanism 2. ydrological processes late spring/early summer flooding disasters over southwestern Taiwan 3. Impact of multiple-scale process on rainstorm activity Interannual, MJO, day mode, Synoptic disturb. 4. Effect of the midlatitude-tropical tropical interaction on rainstorm activity EAM life cycle, Genesis/development, Monsoon onset 30

Amplification Regional hydrological cycle NWP/Simulation 31 Summer Monsoon

16 Science plan Observation/ Initialization Multiple-scale interaction Tropical-midlatitude interaction Upstream Genesis 9Z 5/28/06 Downstream Amplification Regional hydrological cycle NWP/Simulation 31 Summer Monsoon Rainstorm Experiment CJC Project EAMEX RS (afternoon / evening) RS (night / morning) May-June,

17 II.. Winter Rainfall Experiment istoric perspective (au and au 1984) 33 (au and Chang 1987) 34

18 Winter climatology of East/Southeast Asia CMAP / ERA B Indochina C A East Asia Midlatitude Tropical Southeast Asia ºE 135ºE P CMAP C B C A tropical Southeast Asia East Asia tropical Southeast Asia midlatitude 36

Genesis mechanisms of winter synoptic disturbances 3.

Interannual variation Pilot Studies: Importance of Winter

East Asia b. Midlatitude c. Indochina d.

19 Taiwan ow Scientific issues 1. Importance of synoptic disturbances in winter rainfall 2. Genesis mechanisms of winter synoptic disturbances 3. Multiple-scale process 4. Interannual variation Pilot Studies: Importance of Winter Rainfall Impact of Cold Surge on Winter Monsoon Rainfall a. East Asia b. Midlatitude c. Indochina d. Tropical Southeast Asia 37 1) Importance of synoptic disturbances in winter rainfall Impact on Japan Taiwan low-induced winter cyclones Similar events Snow accumulation

20 Impact on Taiwan Cold surge Taiwan low: rainfall 18Z 1/13/05 2/26/05 3/8/05 3/5/05 11/28/03 39 Impact on Vietnam Cold-surge vortices Oct-Nov, 2007 Floods kill 46 in Vietnam November 05, 2007 (Canada.com) Vietnam floods kill 67, as new storm threatens November 06, 2007 (Agence France-Presse) Vietnamese officials say floods have killed at least 77 people in central Vietnam since late last month

21 Impact on Vietnam Cold-surge vortices V(925mb) eavy rains add to SE Asia floods (16 October, 2000) (BBC news) Vietnam: at least 600 dead UK Sangha Vietnam Flood Appeal November 1999, torrential downpour rains have devastated Central Vietnam. Record floods in 7 coastal provinces have killed more than 600 people. 41 Impact on Malaysia Cold-surge vortices South Malaysia flooding kills six V(925mb) (December 22, 2006)(BBC news, UK) (BBC news, UK) A second wave of flooding in southern Malaysia forced more than 90,000 people to flee their homes.

22 Impact on Indonesia Cold-surge vortices 2 12 February, 2007, Jakarta (Photo credit: Gajah Mada) V(925mb) (BBC news, UK) 2) Impact of Cold Surge on Winter Monsoon Rainfall Multiple-scale process Tropics-midlatitude interaction (different perspective) Regional hydrological cycle 44

South China front 45 Genesis mechanisms of winter

23 a. East Asia Example cases Taiwan low no front Taiwan low Taiwan front GFS 2005 Taiwan low redevelopment of South China front 45 Genesis mechanisms of winter synoptic disturbances Taiwan trough and Taiwan lows DJF 46

24 Impact on Taiwan Contribution of rainfall from different types of perturbation Rainfall rate Rainy day 47 Multiple-scale interaction: P

25 b. Midlatitude 49 North Pacific Short-Wave Train during the Extreme Phase of ENSO ( Chen 2002; JCI) 50

26 Interannual variation Cold surge ( Chen et al. 2004; JCI) 51 c. Indochina: late-fall heavy rainfall in Vietnam October Climatology November Climatology 52

400mb 925mb Oct Oct 1988~2005 Nov Nov Topo > 400m cold surge

vortex to Vietnam Dec Dec 53 P Ensemble precipitation: TRMM:

1980~1988 surface station P index location V(925mb),

27 400mb 925mb Oct Oct 1988~2005 Nov Nov Topo > 400m cold surge vortex cold surge vortex to Vietnam Genesis of cold surge vortex to Vietnam Dec Dec 53 P Ensemble precipitation: TRMM: 1998~2003 GPCP: 1997, 2004~2005 GPI: 1979, 1989~1996 MSU+GTS: 1980~1988 surface station P index location V(925mb), Variances( P) Oct~Nov 1988~2005 V(925mb), Variances( SST) NINO3.4 WTP 54

28 Warm cold surge vortex Cold Cold Case1 20ms-1 55 Propagation mechanism Example case 56

29 Cold-surge vortices d. Tropical Southeast Asia Cold surge 57 Cold-surge vortex example case: 58

30 Multiple-scale interaction: EQ-5 N (a)p(97/98) (b)p(99/00) (a) P(DJF) (b) P(DJF)(EQ-5 N) (c) P(DJF)(EQ-5 N) 97/98 99/00 59 mm d Multiple-scale interaction: 99/00 (Cold)

31 Rainfall variability in tropical Southeast Asia is caused by a multiple-scale interaction among: ENSO MJO (30-60 day mode) Cold surge (12-24 day mode) Synoptic disturbance: cold-surge vortices 61 Suggested Research Areas (1) Multiple-scale processes Interannual MJO day mode (cold surge) Synoptic disturbance: Taiwan low, cold-surge vortices, heavy rainfall in Vietnam (2) Tropics-midlatitude interaction Cold surge / day mode Taiwan low South-China front Cold-surge vortices eavy rainfall events in Vietnam (3) Regional hydrological cycle Contributions from synoptic disturbances of Taiwan low, cold-surge vortices, and heavy rainfall events in Vietnam 62

Scientific objectives 1. Taiwan lows: genesis, structure, propagation mechanism 2. AMTEX storm: development from Taiwan low transition from Taiwan low to midlatitude cyclone 3.

32 Scientific objectives 1. Taiwan lows: genesis, structure, propagation mechanism 2. AMTEX storm: development from Taiwan low transition from Taiwan low to midlatitude cyclone 3. Impact of multiple-scale process on genesis of Taiwan low Interannual, MJO, day mode, Synoptic disturb. 4. Midlatitude-tropics tropics interaction Cold surge, Taiwan low, South-China front Cold-surge vortices, eavy rainfall events in Vietnam 5. Regional hydrological cycle: particularly the winter rainfall over northern Taiwan 63 Science Plan Observation/ Initialization V(925mb), p S Multiple-scale interaction VIS Tropics-midlatitude interaction NWP/Simulation Regional hydrological cycle 64

33 Winter Rainfall Experiment Cold Surge Vortex / eavy Rainfall Events in ate Fall October- November, 2008 Google 65 Winter Rainfall Experiment Taiwan Senkaku Okinawa Ishigaki 0 0 December, February,

34 3. International Collaborations A. MAASRI MAASRI domain MAASRI activity related to EAMEX B. Facilities available from international collaborations 1) Indonesia 4) Philippine 2) Japan 5) Thailand 3) Malaysia 6) Vietnam C. Domestic facilities (Taiwan) 67 A. MAASRI (Monsoon Asian ydro-atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative) J. Matsumoto MAASRI Chairman / Group leader of Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Domain E. Asia Winter Rainfall Exp. Summer Rainstorm Exp. 68

Disaster Reduction (Tibetan Plateau) Thailand GaME-T Vietnam Taiwan

35 B. Facilities available from international collaborations 69 Participating countries China-Japan Cooperative Project on Weather Disaster Reduction (Tibetan Plateau) Thailand GaME-T Vietnam Taiwan EAMEX Philippine Japan Cold surge research Malaysia Indonesia ARIMAU (with Japan) Google 70

36 4. Time Table (with international projects) CJ 71 (a) ate Spring-Early Summer Rainstorm Experiment: May 15-June 30, 2008 (b) Winter Rainfall Experiment: Central Vietnam eavy Rainfall: October-November 2008 Taiwan ow-cold Surge: December 2008-Feburary

37 Thank you 73

KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT

T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical