Narragansett Bay ROMS: Model-Data Comparisons of Currents and Hydrography
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1 Narragansett Bay ROMS: Model-Data Comparisons of Currents and Hydrography Dave Ullman Graduate School of Oceanography URI Collaborators: Chris Kincaid, Christelle Balt, Deanna Bergondo, Justin Rogers NBC Workshop: Just Another Day on the Upper-Upper Bay August 5, 2015
2 Background on Modeling Effort Model development has been an ongoing process over past 5-10 years. Major impetus: CHRP Narragansett Bay Hypoxia project (Funded by NOAA-CHRP and RI-BRWCT). ROMS model used to parameterize material transports in ecological box model of the Bay. For this application, require a realistically forced model that captures the variability in circulation and mixing occurring in NB in response to timevariable forcing (river inflows, wind, heat fluxes, tides, oceanic variability). Present version of model run for 2006, 2007, 2010, and 2014.
3 Use of Field Observations to Assess the Skill of the Numerical Model Numerical circulation model is a Computer Program, and as people used to say in the early days of computers regarding programs: Garbage in, Garbage out. Before using model output for any application, it is crucial to verify the performance of the model. In this presentation, I will evaluate the skill of our ROMS Narragansett Bay model in simulating water surface elevation, currents, hydrography (temperature and salinity), and vertical density stratification using observations.
4 ROMS N-Bay Circulation Model Model Domains: Low resolution Nested high resolution River/WWTF discharges Forcing from low resolution model Forcing from regional model output (UMASS)+ADCIRC tides
5 Skill Assessment: Site Locations Observations: Surface elevation (NOAA tide gauges). Currents (URI ADCPs). Temperature and Salinity (URI/DEM buoys)
6 Skill Assessment: Site Locations Tide Gauges (surface elevation): Providence (Prov.) Conimicut (Conim.) Quonset (Quon.) Newport (Newp.) ADCPs (current profiles): West Passage Channel 2006 (WP) East Passage Channel 2006 (EPc) East Passage Shoal 2006 (EPs) East Passage Channel 2007 (EP07) Betw. Prudence and Conanicut 2007 (MD07) Monitoring Buoys (T and S, surf & bott): Bullock Reach (BR) Conimicut (CP) North Prudence (NP) Mount View (MV) Quonset (QP) Popasquash Point (PP) T-Wharf (TW) Greenwich Bay Marina (GB) Mount Hope Bay (MH)
7 Evaluation of Model Skill Use Willmott (1982) Index of Agreement (or Skill): Skill=1: perfect model Skill=0: useless model T obs = observed value T mod = model-predicted value For surface elevation and currents, skill evaluated for: A. Raw data. B. Subtidal signal (low pass filtered, cutoff period =36 h). C. Tidal signal (Raw-Subtidal). Reference: Willmott, C. J., Some comments on the evaluation of model performance, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 63,
8 ROMS Model-Data Comparison: Sea Level at Providence ( ) Skill Raw: Subtidal: Tidal: 0.967
9 Skill Definition: Model Skill: Sea Level Site Raw Subtidal Tidal Providence Conimicut Quonset Newport
10 ROMS Model-Data Comparison: Depth-averaged Current at EP Channel (2006) Skill (major axis current) Raw: Subtidal: Tidal: 0.906
11 Skill Definition: Model Skill: Depth-Averaged Major Axis Currents Site year Site ID Raw Subtidal Tidal West Passage Channel 2006 WP East Passage Channel 2006 EPc East Passage Shoal 2006 EPs East Passage Channel 2007 EP Between Prudence and Conanicut Islands 2007 MD07E
12 Evaluation of Model Skill (Hydrography) For T, S, Δρ compute the mean difference (bias) at each location and then examine skill of demeaned variables (fluctuations about the mean). Mean of Model - Mean of Obs. Use Taylor Diagram as visual aid in evaluating model.
13 ROMS Model-Data Comparison: T/S at Conimicut Bias Tsurf: -0.6 C Tbott: -0.7 C Ssurf: 0.3 Sbott: -0.2 Skill Tsurf: 0.98 Tbott: 0.98 Ssurf: 0.95 Sbott: 0.81
14 ROMS Model-Data Comparison: T/S at Bullock Bias Tsurf: -0.9 C Tbott: 0.5 C Ssurf: -0.2 Sbott: -2.5 Skill Tsurf: 0.99 Tbott: 0.97 Ssurf: 0.95 Sbott: 0.68
15 Temp./Salinity Model Bias,
16 Taylor Diagrams, A = observations B = Bullock C = Conimicut D = North Prudence E = Mount View F = Quonset G = Popasquash H = T-Wharf I = Greenwich Bay J = Mount Hope Bay Tsurf Tbott Ssurf Sbott
17 Skill Definition: Model Skill: Hydrography Site Tsurf Tbott Ssurf Sbott Bullock Conimicut North Prudence Mount View Quonset Popasquash T-Wharf Greenwich Bay Mount Hope Bay
18 ROMS Model-Data Comparison: Vertical Density Difference at Bullock, Bias = -2 kg/m 3 Skill = 0.75
19 Vertical Density Difference, Bias Taylor Diagram A = observations B = Bullock C = Conimicut D = North Prudence E = Mount View F = Quonset G = Popasquash H = T-Wharf I = Greenwich Bay J = Mount Hope Bay
20 Model Skill: Vertical Density Difference Skill Definition: Site Skill (vertical density diff.) Bullock 0.75 Conimicut 0.91 North Prudence 0.90 Mount View 0.90 Quonset 0.86 Popasquash 0.91 T-wharf 0.88 Greenwich Bay 0.36 Mount Hope Bay 0.95
21 2010 Hydrography Model Evaluation
22 Model Bias, Temperature/Salinity 2010
23 Taylor Diagrams, Temperature/Salinity 2010 A = observations B = Bullock C = Conimicut D = North Prudence E = Mount View F = Quonset G = Popasquash H = T-Wharf I = Greenwich Bay J = Mount Hope Bay Tsurf Tbott Ssurf Sbott
24 Skill Definition: Model Skill: Hydrography 2010 Site Tsurf Tbott Ssurf Sbott Bullock Conimicut North Prudence Mount View Quonset Popasquash T-Wharf Greenwich Bay Mount Hope Bay
25 ROMS Model-Data Comparison: Vertical Density Difference at Bullock, 2010 Bias = 0.5 kg/m 3 Skill = 0.89
26 Vertical Density Difference, 2010 Bias Taylor Diagram A = observations B = Bullock C = Conimicut D = North Prudence E = Mount View F = Quonset G = Popasquash H = T-Wharf I = Greenwich Bay J = Mount Hope Bay
27 Model Skill: Vertical Density Difference 2010 Skill Definition: Site Skill (vertical density diff.) Bullock 0.89 Conimicut 0.79 North Prudence 0.81 Mount View 0.72 Quonset 0.78 Popasquash 0.73 T-wharf 0.66 Greenwich Bay 0.47 Mount Hope Bay 0.71
28 Model Skill Assessment, Summary Sea Level and Currents Tidal timescales: Elevation skills > 0.9 Current skills > 0.8 Slight under-prediction of tides. Subtidal timescales: Elevation skills > 0.8 Current skills > 0.6 (except at EPs s~0.5) Subtidal fluctuations under-predicted. Hydrography and Stratification Temperature generally simulated well. o Significant bias (1-3 deg) during some years. o Skills generally > 0.9. Model performance for salinity more variable (spatially). o Biases of 1-3 psu at some sites. o Skills > Density stratification simulated well at some sites/fair at others. o Skill generally > 0.7 o Model underestimates stratification during high discharge.
29 Model Skill Assessment, Summary Model provides a reasonably accurate simulation of time variable circulation and hydrography. Iterative process underway to improve model fidelity: o Need to prescribe vertical structure of river inflows? o Background vertical mixing too high? o Problems with Bay mouth boundary conditions?
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