Exascale I/O challenges for Numerical Weather Prediction

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Exascale I/O challenges for Numerical Weather Prediction"

Transcription

1 Exascale I/O challenges for Numerical Weather Prediction A view from ECMWF Tiago Quintino, B. Raoult, S. Smart, A. Bonanni, F. Rathgeber, P. Bauer, N. Wedi ECMWF tiago.quintino@ecmwf.int SuperComputing 16, Workshop on Exascale IO Challenges, Innovations and Solutions ECMWF November 28, 2016

2 ECMWF An independent intergovernmental organisa.on 21 Member States 13 Co-opera.ng States 2

3 Who are we and what do we do? Produce global weather forecasts Medium-Range, up to 15 days ahead Also monthly and seasonal forecasts Collect and store meteorological data on perpetual archive Reading, United Kingdom What do we have to achieve this? 260 staff, specialists and contractors State-of-the-art supercomputers and data handling system 3

4 Numerical Weather ECMWF 4

5 ECMWF s HPC Targets What do we do? Operations Time Critical Operational runs 2 hours from observation cut-off to deliver forecast products 10 day forecast twice per day, 00Z and 12Z Boundary Conditions 06Z and 18Z, monthly, seasonal, etc. Research Non Time Critical Improving our models Climate reanalysis, etc Tension HPC Facility Targets Capability, minimise the time to solution of Model runs Capacity, maximise the throughput of research jobs per day Time Critical vs. Non Time Critical Capacity vs. Capability Challenge: design our HPC system to optimise these goals, minimising TCO? 5

6 ECMWF s Production Workflow Global Observations Acquisition IFS Model Product Generation Dissemina tion Obs Fields Products Member States & Customers MARS Perpetual Archive 6

7 ECMWF HPC Job profile 7

8 Operational workload: Job allocation (1 cycle) 8

9 Le Petit Prince, Antoine de Saint-Exupéry 9

10 Operational workload: Job allocation (1 cycle) 10

11 Operational workload: Files opened (1 cycle) Target Files = # Users x # Steps x # Ranks 11

12 Operational workload: Input Read (1 cycle) 12

13 Operations workload: Output written (1 cycle) 13

14 ECMWF s Production Workflow IFS Model Product Generation ECPDS Member States & Customers Raw Output Fields 42TiB Read (70%) Products Parallel Filesystem Storage (Lustre) FDB PDB Time critical path MARS Perpetual Archive 14

15 Estimated Growth in Model IO km, 137 levels Time critical 21 TB/day written 22 Million fields 85 Million products 11 TB/day send to customers 2020 Increase: 2 horizontal, 1 upper air Time critical 128 TB/day written 90 Million fields 450 Million products 60 TB/day send to customers Non-time critical 100 TB/day archived 400 research experiments 400,000 jobs / day Non-time critical 1 PB/day archived 1000 research experiments 15

16 Big Data Challenge The 3 V s of Big Data Big Data is high volume, high velocity, and/or high variety information assets that require new forms of processing to enable enhanced decision making, insight discovery and process optimization. 3D Data Management: Controlling Data Volume, Velocity and Variety, D. Laney, Gartner,

17 V is for Volume: Observations Increase of satellite data usage 17

18 V is for Volume: Archive Deletion of 1 PB 18

19 V is for Velocity ECMWF s archive grows exponentially: Initial volume Time Volume of the archive Rate of growth r is around 0.5, which is a 50% increase per year The rate of added data also grows exponentially at the same rate! In 1995, the size of the archive was increasing at a rate of 14 TB/year Nov 2016, the size of the archive increases at a rate of 150 TB/day 19

20 V is for Variety 10T 1T X-MP/4 Y-MP/8 C90/12 C90/16 T106L19 T213L31 T106L16 VPP VPP T319L50 T319L31 VPP5000 IBM-P4 IBM-P5 IBM-P5+ IBM-P6 T319L60 T511L60 00Z EPS T799L91 Weekly Monthly T1279L91 Ensemble data assimilation 00Z 10 day FC Overlap, CalVal Vareps/Monthy 4d-Var Model errors 100G 4D-var increments SCDA 4D-Var DCDA Wave EFIs EPS PT levels DCDA Wave 10G Weekend EPS Extra fields, new gaussian grid End sensitivity Wave proba. SCDA Waves SCDA Forecast Wave 4V PT and PV levels SCDA Forecast EFIs Multi-Analysis 4D-Var Wave EPS SCDA Analysis Errors if FG, surface 1G 00Z Run 00Z Run Errors in FG Sensitivity Other centers Clusters EPS Waves FG Probabilities OI Tubes Errors in AN and FG NCEP EPS Ensemble means & stdev 1/3 growth is resolu9on increase 2/3 growth is increase of product types 100M FC Model levels SSTs Waves Chernobyl TOGA FC 3DVar 4DVar 12 Hour 4DVar DCDA Vareps/Monthy EDA FC Pressure levels 50 Members EPS EPS 15 days 10M

21 Meteorological Fields Fields: 6.6M grid points x 137 levels 904M values, per variable Daily Operational Cycle: 18M fields 27 TiB output Time critical window: 1h!!! 21

22 Archive growth versus HPC performances Log scale 22

23 Evolu.on of Forecast scores, comparison northern and southern hemispheres ~16km ~39km ~25km ~125km ~63km ~210km 23

24 Benefits of High Resolution AN 30 Oct Mean sea-level pressure 5d FC T3999 5d FC T1279 5d FC T639 Sandy 28 Oct 2012 Precipitation: NEXRAD 27 Oct 3d FC Wave height Mean sea-level pressure 4d FC T639 4d FC T1279 4d FC T

25 TCo1279 (~9km) a World s 6.6 Megapixel highest resolution camera global NWP today TCo1279 orography (12h forecast, hydrostatic, with deep convection parametrization, 450s time-step, 240 Broadwell nodes, ~0.75s per timestep) 25

26 TCo7999 (~1.25km) 256 Megapixel camera with predictive skill! (12 h forecast, hydrostatic, no deep convection parametrization, 120s time-step, 960 Broadwell nodes, ~10s per timestep) 26

27 History and Future of Resolution Upgrades Resolution Grid size Grid Points Field Size (in memory) T km 204 k 1.6 MB T km 524 k 4 MB T km 1.2 M 9.6 MB T km 2.1 M 16.8 MB Tco km 6.6 M 50.4 MB Tco km 16.1 M MB Tco km 64 M 490 MB Tco km 256 M 1909 MB The tendency of memory per core diminishing is likely to have serious implications on the post-processing workflows! 27

28 10-Year Challenge 30x more data sent to customers per day in critical path RMDCN Data acquisition Dissemination Internet 10x more observational data per day Forecast run Product generation Web services Internet 2000x more model data per time step 25x more forecast product data per day in critical path 100x more data archived per day Archive Data Handling System 28

29 Conclusions & Questions NWP has had I/O exponential growth for many years. What is different? Moving from compute centric to data centric paradigm Minimise data movement and bring compute to data Update our legacy codes and workflows to this new paradigm How to adapt upcomming technologies for complex workflows? Burst Buffers NVRAM Storage-side compute Object stores Can we move beyond the filesystem? How intrusive should that be? Interpreting scientific data as objects Challenges in data modelling and data curation 29

Scalability Programme at ECMWF

Scalability Programme at ECMWF Scalability Programme at ECMWF Picture: Stan Tomov, ICL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Peter Bauer, Mike Hawkins, George Mozdzynski, Tiago Quintino, Deborah Salmond, Stephan Siemen, Yannick Trémolet

More information

ECMWF Computing & Forecasting System

ECMWF Computing & Forecasting System ECMWF Computing & Forecasting System icas 2015, Annecy, Sept 2015 Isabella Weger, Deputy Director of Computing ECMWF September 17, 2015 October 29, 2014 ATMOSPHERE MONITORING SERVICE CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE

More information

Numerical Weather prediction at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Numerical Weather prediction at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Numerical Weather prediction at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Time series curves 500hPa geopotential Correlation coefficent of forecast anomaly N Hemisphere Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon

More information

Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future

Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future Sarah Keeley Education Officer Erland Källén Director of Research ECMWF An independent intergovernmental organisation established in 1975

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2008

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2008 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2008 RHMS of Serbia 1. Summary of major highlights ECMWF products are operationally used in Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from the beginning of 2003.

More information

JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR 2007

JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR 2007 JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR 2007 [TURKEY/Turkish State Meteorological Service] 1. Summary

More information

The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting

The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting Erik Andersson Slide 1 ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 ECMWF s global forecasting system High resolution forecast

More information

ECMWF Forecasting System Research and Development

ECMWF Forecasting System Research and Development ECMWF Forecasting System Research and Development Jean-Noël Thépaut ECMWF October 2012 Slide 1 and many colleagues from the Research Department Slide 1, ECMWF The ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 RHMS of Serbia 1. Summary of major highlights ECMWF products are operationally used in Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from the beginning of 2003.

More information

Recent ECMWF Developments

Recent ECMWF Developments Recent ECMWF Developments Tim Hewson (with contributions from many ECMWF colleagues!) tim.hewson@ecmwf.int ECMWF November 2, 2017 Outline Last Year IFS upgrade highlights 43r1 and 43r3 Standard web Chart

More information

The ECMWF Extended range forecasts

The ECMWF Extended range forecasts The ECMWF Extended range forecasts Laura.Ferranti@ecmwf.int ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Slide 1 TC January 2014 Slide 1 The operational forecasting system l High resolution forecast: twice per day 16 km 91-level,

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 Met Eireann, Glasnevin Hill, Dublin 9, Ireland. J.Hamilton 1. Summary of major highlights The verification of ECMWF products has continued as in previous

More information

State of the art of wind forecasting and planned improvements for NWP Helmut Frank (DWD), Malte Mülller (met.no), Clive Wilson (UKMO)

State of the art of wind forecasting and planned improvements for NWP Helmut Frank (DWD), Malte Mülller (met.no), Clive Wilson (UKMO) State of the art of wind forecasting and planned improvements for NWP Helmut Frank (DWD), Malte Mülller (met.no), Clive Wilson (UKMO) thanks to S. Bauernschubert, U. Blahak, S. Declair, A. Röpnack, C.

More information

Improving ECMWF s IFS model by Nils Wedi

Improving ECMWF s IFS model by Nils Wedi Improving ECMWF s IFS model by Nils Wedi wedi@ecmwf.int Anna Agusti-Panareda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Peter Bauer, Peter Bechtold, Willem Deconinck, Mikhail Diamantakis, Mats Hamrud, Christian Kuehnlein, Martin

More information

Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes

Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. 1 Outline 30 years ago: the start of ensemble, extended-range predictions

More information

JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR 2006

JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR 2006 JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR 2006 [TURKEY/Turkish State Meteorological Service] 1. Summary

More information

ECMWF Scalability Programme

ECMWF Scalability Programme ECMWF Scalability Programme Picture: Stan Tomov, ICL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Peter Bauer, Mike Hawkins, Deborah Salmond, Stephan Siemen, Yannick Trémolet, and Nils Wedi Next generation science

More information

ECMWF and the roadmap to extreme-scale computing in weather and climate prediction

ECMWF and the roadmap to extreme-scale computing in weather and climate prediction ECMWF and the roadmap to extreme-scale computing in weather and climate prediction http://www.lanl.gov/newsroom/picture-of-the-week/pic-week-2.php European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Independent

More information

Enhanced Predictability During Extreme Winter Flow Regimes

Enhanced Predictability During Extreme Winter Flow Regimes Enhanced Predictability During Extreme Winter Flow Regimes Ryan N. Maue (WeatherBELL Analytics - Atlanta) maue@weatherbell.com ECMWF UEF 2016 Reading, UK June 6 9, 2016 Where does forecast verification

More information

TIGGE at ECMWF. David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section Slide 1. Slide 1

TIGGE at ECMWF. David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section Slide 1. Slide 1 TIGGE at ECMWF David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section david.richardson@ecmwf.int Slide 1 Slide 1 ECMWF TIGGE archive The TIGGE database now contains five years of global EPS data Holds

More information

Application and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007

Application and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007 Application and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007 National Meteorological Administration Romania 1. Summary of major highlights The medium range forecast activity within the National Meteorological

More information

Weather Forecasting. March 26, 2009

Weather Forecasting. March 26, 2009 Weather Forecasting Chapter 13 March 26, 2009 Forecasting The process of inferring weather from a blend of data, understanding, climatology, and solutions of the governing equations Requires an analysis

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 Icelandic Meteorological Office (www.vedur.is) Bolli Pálmason and Guðrún Nína Petersen 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range weather forecasts

More information

Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes

Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Using ECMWF forecasts, 4-6 June 2014 1 Outline Recent progress and plans

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products in Serbia

Application and verification of ECMWF products in Serbia Application and verification of ECMWF products in Serbia Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia 1. Summary of major highlights ECMWF products are operationally used in Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia

More information

Deutscher Wetterdienst

Deutscher Wetterdienst Deutscher Wetterdienst The Enhanced DWD-RAPS Suite Testing Computers, Compilers and More? Ulrich Schättler, Florian Prill, Harald Anlauf Deutscher Wetterdienst Research and Development Deutscher Wetterdienst

More information

The ECMWF Hybrid 4D-Var and Ensemble of Data Assimilations

The ECMWF Hybrid 4D-Var and Ensemble of Data Assimilations The Hybrid 4D-Var and Ensemble of Data Assimilations Lars Isaksen, Massimo Bonavita and Elias Holm Data Assimilation Section lars.isaksen@ecmwf.int Acknowledgements to: Mike Fisher and Marta Janiskova

More information

An Overview of HPC at the Met Office

An Overview of HPC at the Met Office An Overview of HPC at the Met Office Paul Selwood Crown copyright 2006 Page 1 Introduction The Met Office National Weather Service for the UK Climate Prediction (Hadley Centre) Operational and Research

More information

Recent experience at Météo-France on the assimilation of observations at high temporal frequency Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre

Recent experience at Météo-France on the assimilation of observations at high temporal frequency Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre Recent experience at Météo-France on the assimilation of observations at high temporal frequency Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre J.-F. Mahfouf, P. Brousseau, P. Chambon and G. Desroziers Météo-France/CNRS

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products in Norway 2008

Application and verification of ECMWF products in Norway 2008 Application and verification of ECMWF products in Norway 2008 The Norwegian Meteorological Institute 1. Summary of major highlights The ECMWF products are widely used by forecasters to make forecasts for

More information

Kristian Mogensen, Philip Browne and Sarah Keeley

Kristian Mogensen, Philip Browne and Sarah Keeley NWP gaps and needs Kristian Mogensen, Philip Browne and Sarah Keeley Workshop on observations and analysis of sea-surface temperature and sea ice for NWP and Climate Applications ECMWF 22-25 January 2018

More information

Speedwell High Resolution WRF Forecasts. Application

Speedwell High Resolution WRF Forecasts. Application Speedwell High Resolution WRF Forecasts Speedwell weather are providers of high quality weather data and forecasts for many markets. Historically we have provided forecasts which use a statistical bias

More information

The role of GPS-RO at ECMWF" ! COSMIC Data Users Workshop!! 30 September 2014! !!! ECMWF

The role of GPS-RO at ECMWF ! COSMIC Data Users Workshop!! 30 September 2014! !!! ECMWF The role of GPS-RO at ECMWF"!!!! COSMIC Data Users Workshop!! 30 September 2014! ECMWF WE ARE Intergovernmental organisation! 34 Member and Cooperating European states! 270 staff at ECMWF, in Reading,

More information

LATE REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT

LATE REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT LATE REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT 2016 2018 MEMBER STATE: Italy Principal Investigator 1 : Affiliation: Address: E-mail: Other researchers: Project Title: Valerio Capecchi LaMMA Consortium - Environmental

More information

Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF

Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF Objectives Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF Learn about the recent developments in the forecast system and its impact on the Tropical Cyclone forecast Learn

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012 Met Eireann, Glasnevin Hill, Dublin 9, Ireland. J.Hamilton 1. Summary of major highlights The verification of ECMWF products has continued as in previous

More information

Deutscher Wetterdienst

Deutscher Wetterdienst Deutscher Wetterdienst NUMEX Numerical Experiments and NWP-development at DWD 14th Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems ECMWF 18-20 November 2013 Thomas Hanisch GB Forschung und Entwicklung (FE)

More information

Recent Data Assimilation Activities at Environment Canada

Recent Data Assimilation Activities at Environment Canada Recent Data Assimilation Activities at Environment Canada Major upgrade to global and regional deterministic prediction systems (now in parallel run) Sea ice data assimilation Mark Buehner Data Assimilation

More information

Data Intensive Computing meets High Performance Computing

Data Intensive Computing meets High Performance Computing Data Intensive Computing meets High Performance Computing Kathy Yelick Associate Laboratory Director for Computing Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Professor of Electrical Engineering and

More information

István Ihász, Máté Mile and Zoltán Üveges Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary

István Ihász, Máté Mile and Zoltán Üveges Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary Comprehensive study of the calibrated EPS products István Ihász, Máté Mile and Zoltán Üveges Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary 1. Introduction Calibration of ensemble forecasts is a new

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012 National Meteorological Administration 1. Summary of major highlights The objective verification of all deterministic models forecasts in use have been

More information

Computational Challenges in Big Data Assimilation with Extreme-scale Simulations

Computational Challenges in Big Data Assimilation with Extreme-scale Simulations May 1, 2013, BDEC workshop, Charleston, SC Computational Challenges in Big Data Assimilation with Extreme-scale Simulations Takemasa Miyoshi RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science Takemasa.Miyoshi@riken.jp

More information

Stochastic methods for representing atmospheric model uncertainties in ECMWF's IFS model

Stochastic methods for representing atmospheric model uncertainties in ECMWF's IFS model Stochastic methods for representing atmospheric model uncertainties in ECMWF's IFS model Sarah-Jane Lock Model Uncertainty, Research Department, ECMWF With thanks to Martin Leutbecher, Simon Lang, Pirkka

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2015

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2015 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2015 METEO- J. Stein, L. Aouf, N. Girardot, S. Guidotti, O. Mestre, M. Plu, F. Pouponneau and I. Sanchez 1. Summary of major highlights The major event is

More information

How to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective

How to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective How to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective Paolo Ruti, Chief World Weather Research Division Sarah Jones, Chair Scientific Steering Committee Improving the skill big resources ECMWF s forecast

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 RHMS of Serbia 1 Summary of major highlights ECMWF forecast products became the backbone in operational work during last several years. Starting from

More information

István Ihász, Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary

István Ihász, Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary Experiences using VarEPS products at the Hungarian Meteorological Service István Ihász, Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary 1 Introduction ECMWF 15 day Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction

More information

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECMWF FORECASTING SYSTEM

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECMWF FORECASTING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECMWF FORECASTING SYSTEM Jean-Noël Thépaut European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF Acknowledgements: Lars Isaksen, Mike Fisher, Yannick Trémolet, Peter Bauer, Adrian

More information

Assimilating only surface pressure observations in 3D and 4DVAR

Assimilating only surface pressure observations in 3D and 4DVAR Assimilating only surface pressure observations in 3D and 4DVAR (and other observing system impact studies) Jean-Noël Thépaut ECMWF Acknowledgements: Graeme Kelly Workshop on atmospheric reanalysis, 19

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 Hungarian Meteorological Service 1. Summary of major highlights The objective verification of ECMWF forecasts have been continued on all the time ranges

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2011

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2011 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2011 Icelandic Meteorological Office (www.vedur.is) Guðrún Nína Petersen 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range weather forecasts issued at IMO are mainly

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate

More information

Exploring and extending the limits of weather predictability? Antje Weisheimer

Exploring and extending the limits of weather predictability? Antje Weisheimer Exploring and extending the limits of weather predictability? Antje Weisheimer Arnt Eliassen s legacy for NWP ECMWF is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states. ECMWF produces

More information

CERA-SAT: A coupled reanalysis at higher resolution (WP1)

CERA-SAT: A coupled reanalysis at higher resolution (WP1) CERA-SAT: A coupled reanalysis at higher resolution (WP1) ERA-CLIM2 General assembly Dinand Schepers 16 Jan 2017 Contributors: Eric de Boisseson, Per Dahlgren, Patrick Lalolyaux, Iain Miller and many others

More information

Experiments of clustering for central European area specially in extreme weather situations. István Ihász. Hungarian Meteorological Service

Experiments of clustering for central European area specially in extreme weather situations. István Ihász. Hungarian Meteorological Service Experiments of clustering for central European area specially in extreme weather situations István Ihász Hungarian Meteorological Service 1 1. ECMWF clustering 2. Clustering for central European area Forecasters

More information

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE. Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE. Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles AUGUST 2006 N O T E S A N D C O R R E S P O N D E N C E 2279 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles JEFFREY S. WHITAKER AND XUE WEI NOAA CIRES Climate

More information

onboard of Metop-A COSMIC Workshop 2009 Boulder, USA

onboard of Metop-A COSMIC Workshop 2009 Boulder, USA GRAS Radio Occultation Measurements onboard of Metop-A A. von Engeln 1, Y. Andres 1, C. Cardinali 2, S. Healy 2,3, K. Lauritsen 3, C. Marquardt 1, F. Sancho 1, S. Syndergaard 3 1 2 3 EUMETSAT, ECMWF, GRAS

More information

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping, Sweden 1. Summary of highlights HIRLAM at SMHI is run on a CRAY T3E with 272 PEs at the National Supercomputer Centre (NSC) organised together

More information

AMPS Update June 2016

AMPS Update June 2016 AMPS Update June 2016 Kevin W. Manning Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO 11 th Antarctic Meteorological Observation,

More information

ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty

ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty Using ECMWF s Forecasts, 2015 David Richardson Head of Evaluation, Forecast Department David.Richardson@ecmwf.int ECMWF June 12,

More information

Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science. Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK

Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science. Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK NCEO Early Career Science Conference 16th 18th April 2012 Introduction to data assimilation Page 2 of 20

More information

Introduction to Data Assimilation

Introduction to Data Assimilation Introduction to Data Assimilation Alan O Neill Data Assimilation Research Centre University of Reading What is data assimilation? Data assimilation is the technique whereby observational data are combined

More information

The ECMWF coupled data assimilation system

The ECMWF coupled data assimilation system The ECMWF coupled data assimilation system Patrick Laloyaux Acknowledgments: Magdalena Balmaseda, Kristian Mogensen, Peter Janssen, Dick Dee August 21, 214 Patrick Laloyaux (ECMWF) CERA August 21, 214

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2010

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2010 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2010 Icelandic Meteorological Office (www.vedur.is) Guðrún Nína Petersen 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range weather forecasts issued at IMO are mainly

More information

2. Outline of the MRI-EPS

2. Outline of the MRI-EPS 2. Outline of the MRI-EPS The MRI-EPS includes BGM cycle system running on the MRI supercomputer system, which is developed by using the operational one-month forecasting system by the Climate Prediction

More information

ESiWACE. A Center of Excellence for HPC applications to support cloud resolving earth system modelling

ESiWACE. A Center of Excellence for HPC applications to support cloud resolving earth system modelling ESiWACE A Center of Excellence for HPC applications to support cloud resolving earth system modelling Joachim Biercamp, Panagiotis Adamidis, Philipp Neumann Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) Motivation:

More information

Current Issues and Challenges in Ensemble Forecasting

Current Issues and Challenges in Ensemble Forecasting Current Issues and Challenges in Ensemble Forecasting Junichi Ishida (JMA) and Carolyn Reynolds (NRL) With contributions from WGNE members 31 th WGNE Pretoria, South Africa, 26 29 April 2016 Recent trends

More information

ECMWF product development

ECMWF product development ECMWF product development David Richardson Head of Evaluation Section, Forecast Department, ECMWF David.richardson@ecmwf.int ECMWF June 6, 2018 Outline Review the efforts made by ECMWF to address feedback

More information

O.M Smedstad 1, E.J. Metzger 2, R.A. Allard 2, R. Broome 1, D.S. Franklin 1 and A.J. Wallcraft 2. QinetiQ North America 2. Naval Research Laboratory

O.M Smedstad 1, E.J. Metzger 2, R.A. Allard 2, R. Broome 1, D.S. Franklin 1 and A.J. Wallcraft 2. QinetiQ North America 2. Naval Research Laboratory An eddy-resolving ocean reanalysis using the 1/12 global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) scheme O.M Smedstad 1, E.J. Metzger 2, R.A. Allard 2,

More information

25 years of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF

25 years of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF from Newsletter Number 153 Autumn 2017 METEOROLOGY 25 years of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF 25 YEARS OF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION doi:10.21957/bv418o This article appeared in the Meteorology section of ECMWF

More information

How to Prepare Weather and Climate Models for Future HPC Hardware

How to Prepare Weather and Climate Models for Future HPC Hardware How to Prepare Weather and Climate Models for Future HPC Hardware Peter Düben European Weather Centre (ECMWF) Peter Düben Page 2 The European Weather Centre (ECMWF) www.ecmwf.int Independent, intergovernmental

More information

A simple method for seamless verification applied to precipitation hindcasts from two global models

A simple method for seamless verification applied to precipitation hindcasts from two global models A simple method for seamless verification applied to precipitation hindcasts from two global models Matthew Wheeler 1, Hongyan Zhu 1, Adam Sobel 2, Debra Hudson 1 and Frederic Vitart 3 1 Bureau of Meteorology,

More information

Global NWP Index documentation

Global NWP Index documentation Global NWP Index documentation The global index is calculated in two ways, against observations, and against model analyses. Observations are sparse in some parts of the world, and using full gridded analyses

More information

Fernando Prates. Evaluation Section. Slide 1

Fernando Prates. Evaluation Section. Slide 1 Fernando Prates Evaluation Section Slide 1 Objectives Ø Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF Ø Learn the recent developments in the forecast system and its impact

More information

High resolution regional reanalysis over Ireland using the HARMONIE NWP model

High resolution regional reanalysis over Ireland using the HARMONIE NWP model High resolution regional reanalysis over Ireland using the HARMONIE NWP model Emily Gleeson, Eoin Whelan With thanks to John Hanley, Bing Li, Ray McGrath, Séamus Walsh, Motivation/Inspiration KNMI 5 year

More information

Progress in Numerical Methods at ECMWF

Progress in Numerical Methods at ECMWF Progress in Numerical Methods at ECMWF EWGLAM / SRNWP October 2016 W. Deconinck, G. Mengaldo, C. Kühnlein, P.K. Smolarkiewicz, N.P. Wedi, P. Bauer willem.deconinck@ecmwf.int ECMWF November 7, 2016 2 The

More information

Reflecting on the Goal and Baseline of Exascale Computing

Reflecting on the Goal and Baseline of Exascale Computing Reflecting on the Goal and Baseline of Exascale Computing Thomas C. Schulthess!1 Tracking supercomputer performance over time? Linpack benchmark solves: Ax = b!2 Tracking supercomputer performance over

More information

Using Innovative Displays of Hydrologic Ensemble Traces

Using Innovative Displays of Hydrologic Ensemble Traces Upper Colorado River Basin Water Forum November 7, 2018 Communicating Uncertainty and Risk in Water Resources: Using Innovative Displays of Hydrologic Ensemble Traces Richard Koehler, Ph.D. NOAA/NWS, Boulder,

More information

4.3.2 Configuration. 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System Introduction

4.3.2 Configuration. 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System Introduction 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System 4.3.1 Introduction JMA launched its operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for one-month forecasting, one-week forecasting, and seasonal forecasting in March of 1996,

More information

Impact of an improved Backgrund-error covariance matrix with AROME 3Dvar system over Tunisia

Impact of an improved Backgrund-error covariance matrix with AROME 3Dvar system over Tunisia Institut National de la Météorologie Joint 28th ALADIN Workshop & HIRLAM All Staff Meeting Impact of an improved Backgrund-error covariance matrix with AROME 3Dvar system over Tunisia Wafa KHALFAOUI *,

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2017

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2017 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2017 Finnish Meteorological Institute compiled by Weather and Safety Centre with help of several experts 1. Summary of major highlights FMI s forecasts are

More information

Seasonal Forecast for the area of the east Mediterranean, Products and Perspectives

Seasonal Forecast for the area of the east Mediterranean, Products and Perspectives Seasonal Forecast for the area of the east Mediterranean, Products and Perspectives Dr Kleanthis Nicolaides Senior Meteorological Officer Department of Meteorology The need for weather forecasts from where

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2018

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2018 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2018 National Meteorological Administration, Romania 1. Summary of major highlights In the field of numerical model verification, the daily GRID_STAT method

More information

Essentials of Large Volume Data Management - from Practical Experience. George Purvis MASS Data Manager Met Office

Essentials of Large Volume Data Management - from Practical Experience. George Purvis MASS Data Manager Met Office Essentials of Large Volume Data Management - from Practical Experience George Purvis MASS Data Manager Met Office There lies trouble ahead Once upon a time a Project Manager was tasked to go forth and

More information

ECMWF global reanalyses: Resources for the wind energy community

ECMWF global reanalyses: Resources for the wind energy community ECMWF global reanalyses: Resources for the wind energy community (and a few myth-busters) Paul Poli European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Shinfield Park, RG2 9AX, Reading, UK paul.poli

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products in Croatia - July 2007

Application and verification of ECMWF products in Croatia - July 2007 Application and verification of ECMWF products in Croatia - July 2007 By Lovro Kalin, Zoran Vakula and Josip Juras (Hydrological and Meteorological Service) 1. Summary of major highlights At Croatian Met

More information

Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS

Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS Ervin Zsoter with the help of the whole EFAS/GloFAS team Ervin.Zsoter@ecmwf.int 1 Reading, 8-9 May 2018 What is GloFAS? Global-scale ensemble-based flood forecasting

More information

Convective-scale NWP for Singapore

Convective-scale NWP for Singapore Convective-scale NWP for Singapore Hans Huang and the weather modelling and prediction section MSS, Singapore Dale Barker and the SINGV team Met Office, Exeter, UK ECMWF Symposium on Dynamical Meteorology

More information

Tangent-linear and adjoint models in data assimilation

Tangent-linear and adjoint models in data assimilation Tangent-linear and adjoint models in data assimilation Marta Janisková and Philippe Lopez ECMWF Thanks to: F. Váňa, M.Fielding 2018 Annual Seminar: Earth system assimilation 10-13 September 2018 Tangent-linear

More information

Shuhei Maeda Climate Prediction Division Global Environment and Marine Department Japan Meteorological Agency

Shuhei Maeda Climate Prediction Division Global Environment and Marine Department Japan Meteorological Agency Eighth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII) 5-7 April 2012, Beijing, China Shuhei Maeda Climate Prediction Division Global Environment and Marine

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 Icelandic Meteorological Office (www.vedur.is) Gu rún Nína Petersen 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range weather forecasts issued at IMO are mainly

More information

SAWIDRA Southern Africa

SAWIDRA Southern Africa SAWIDRA Southern Africa Presenter: Thembani Moitlhobogi Assistant Database and IT Expert SADC Climate Services Centre 13 th EUMETSAT Forum in Africa 24-28 September 2018, Abidjan, Cote d Ivoire Context

More information

Reanalyses use in operational weather forecasting

Reanalyses use in operational weather forecasting Reanalyses use in operational weather forecasting Roberto Buizza ECMWF, Shinfield Park, RG2 9AX, Reading, UK 1 2017: the ECMWF IFS includes many components Model components Initial conditions Forecasts

More information

ICON. Limited-area mode (ICON-LAM) and updated verification results. Günther Zängl, on behalf of the ICON development team

ICON. Limited-area mode (ICON-LAM) and updated verification results. Günther Zängl, on behalf of the ICON development team ICON Limited-area mode (ICON-LAM) and updated verification results Günther Zängl, on behalf of the ICON development team COSMO General Meeting, Offenbach, 07.09.2016 Outline Status of limited-area-mode

More information

MSC HPC Infrastructure Update. Alain St-Denis Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada

MSC HPC Infrastructure Update. Alain St-Denis Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada MSC HPC Infrastructure Update Alain St-Denis Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Outline HPC Infrastructure Overview Supercomputer Configuration Scientific Direction 2 IT Infrastructure

More information

Yi Chao Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology & Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE)

Yi Chao Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology & Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE) Strategy to Develop a 3D Ocean Circulation Forecasting System for Cook Inlet Yi Chao Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology & Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and

More information

Ocean data assimilation for reanalysis

Ocean data assimilation for reanalysis Ocean data assimilation for reanalysis Matt Martin. ERA-CLIM2 Symposium, University of Bern, 14 th December 2017. Contents Introduction. On-going developments to improve ocean data assimilation for reanalysis.

More information

Center Report from KMA

Center Report from KMA WGNE-30, College Park, Maryland, United States, 23-26 March 2015 Center Report from KMA Forecasting System Operation & Research Dong-Joon Kim Numerical Prediction Office Korea Meteorological Administration

More information

Recent Developments of JMA Operational NWP Systems and WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast

Recent Developments of JMA Operational NWP Systems and WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Recent Developments of JMA Operational NWP Systems and WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Chiashi Muroi Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1 CURRENT STATUS AND

More information

Implementation of global surface index at the Met Office. Submitted by Marion Mittermaier. Summary and purpose of document

Implementation of global surface index at the Met Office. Submitted by Marion Mittermaier. Summary and purpose of document WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS OPAG on DPFS MEETING OF THE CBS (DPFS) TASK TEAM ON SURFACE VERIFICATION GENEVA, SWITZERLAND 20-21 OCTOBER 2014 DPFS/TT-SV/Doc. 4.1a (X.IX.2014)

More information