Joseph S. Scire 1, Christelle Escoffier-Czaja 2 and Mahesh J. Phadnis 1. Cambridge TRC Environmental Corporation 1. Lowell, Massachusetts USA 2
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1 Application of MM5 and CALPUFF to a Complex Terrain Environment in Eastern Iceland Joseph S. Scire 1, Christelle Escoffier-Czaja 2 and Mahesh J. Phadnis 1 TRC Environmental Corporation 1 Lowell, Massachusetts USA 2 London, UK Harmonization within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes July 2-5, 2007 Cambridge, UK
2 Outline Overview of site Analysis of existing published reports/datasets Identification of key modelling issues Meteorological modelling Dispersion modelling Modelling approach Model performance Conclusions
3 Slide from Dr. Þórður Arason
4 Slide from Dr. Þórður Arason View of Site Looking West
5 (From Sigurdsson F.H., 1999)
6 Young Anemometer at 10.3 m height 144 observations per day Observations used: 50804, 96.4% Missing observations: 1900, 3.6% Calm: 2.6% W m/s Somastadagerdi Frequency of Wind Directions, % Year, May April % Average Wind Velocity for Wind Directions, m/s N S E ,8 2,5 1,9 1,9 2,0 2,6 3,7 4,2 5,0 5,0 4,1 4,0 4,0 3,8 2,8 2,1 2,2 2,6 2,9 3,1 3,2 2,4 2,1 2,1 2,5 3,6 4,7 6,3 7,0 6,8 5,9 4,9 4,6 3,9 3,6 3,5 Wind Direction ( ) Somastadagerdi plots from Sigurdsson et al. (2000)
7 Frequency of Wind Directions, % January 2000 Young Anemometer at 10.3 m height 144 observations per day Observations used: 4464, 100.0% Calm: 1.0% N % 4 2 W S Average Wind Velocity for Wind Directions, m/s E 0 1,7 2,8 2,0 2,1 2,7 2,5 1,8 2,1 3,4 3,5 3,0 2,7 4,1 4,1 3,6 3,3 2,9 3,5 6,4 5,7 5,5 7,4 7,2 7,2 7,3 6,5 6,6 7,4 9,3 8,1 6,1 5,4 5,0 5,3 6,1 6,7 m/s Wind Direction ( ) Frequency of Wind Directions, % July 2000 Young Anemometer at 10.3 m height 144 observations per day Observations used: 4464, 100% Calm: 4.5% N W 0 14,8% S Average Wind Velocity for Wind Directions, m/s E 4,5 4,1 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,0 1,2 1,7 2,2 1,8 1,7 1,4 1,0 1,4 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,6 1,9 2,1 2,3 1,5 3,3 3,9 3,6 2,8 2,4 3,0 3,7 4,2 4,8 4,7 3,4 2,6 3,0 4,0 Somastadagerdi plots from Sigurdsson et al. (2000) Somastadagerdi m/s Wind Direction ( )
8 W Frequency of Wind Directions, % High Summer, June - August 2000, Night Hours GMT High Summer, June - August 2000, Day Hours GMT Young Anemometer at 10.3 m height 144 observations per day Observations used: 3312, 100% Calm: 8.2% m/s N S 8.2% Average Wind Velocity for Wind Directions, m/s Somastadagerdi E Young Anemometer at 10.3 m height 144 observations per day Observations used: 3312, 100% Calm: 0.1% W Frequency of Wind Directions, % Average Wind Velocity for Wind Directions, m/s m/s N S E 24.8% ,2 1,0 0,8 1,1 1,1 1,6 2,2 3,5 2,7 2,0 1,8 1,0 1,5 2,6 3,2 2,1 1,0 1,5 1,3 1,1 0,9 1,3 1,1 1,1 1,9 2,9 3,1 4,2 4,0 3,8 4,3 3,1 2,7 1,8 1,4 1, ,5 3,4 4,7 2,1 1,9 3,4 3,4 4,1 4,4 4,1 4,0 3,1 3,5 3,4 1,9 2,0 2,1 3,0 4,4 3,7 4,2 4,8 3,8 3,0 4,4 5,6 6,7 6,7 5,8 6,2 5,9 5,4 4,6 5,2 5,1 5,4 Wind Direction ( ) Wind Direction ( ) Somastadagerdi plots from Sigurdsson et al. (2000)
9 Major Modelling Issues Non-steady-state meteorological conditions Spatial variability to flow and dispersion conditions Flow reversals and fumigation Strong seasonal and diurnal variability Stagnation, recirculation, inversion conditions Overwater transport and dispersion Strong terrain channeling effects Drainage flows and upslope flows Sea breeze circulation
10 Meteorological Modelling Approach Mesoscale numerical meteorological model (MM5) for large scale flows 4 nested grids down to 1 km resolution 24 vertical levels Four dimensional data assimilation Diagnostic meteorological model (CALMET) 300m horizontal resolution 10 vertical layers below 3000m Seasonal land use parameters to account for snow & ice on albedo, surface roughness length
11 Domain 1: 3870 km X 3600 km (87 X 81 - DX = 45 km) Domain 2: 810 km X 540 km (91 X 61 - DX = 9 km) Domain 3: 144 km X 144 km (49 X 49 - DX = 3 km) Domain 4: 75 km X 75 km (76 X 76 - DX = 1 km) Polar Stereographic North (km) Domain 1 MM5 Domains over Iceland Polar Stereographic Center: 67.1 N, 18.5 W True Latitude: 60 N Domain 2 Domain 4 Domain 3 elevation (m) Polar Stereographic East (km)
12 Domain 3: 144 km X 144 km (49 X 49 - DX = 3 km) Domain 4: 75 km X 75 km (76 X 76 - DX = 1 km) Polar Stereographic North (km) MM5 Domains over Iceland Polar Stereographic Center: 67.1 N, 18.5 W True Latitude: 60 N CALMET Domain Domain 4 elevation (m) Domain Polar Stereographic East (km)
13 UTM-Y Zone 28 (km) 7240 Elevation in m CALMET Terrain Domain x 170 cells - 0.3km resolution grid Eskifjordur x Somastadagerdi x Plant Location x Seley UTM-X Zone 28 (km)
14 UTM-Y Zone 28 (km) CALMET Winds Level 1 (10m) Aug 20, am UTM-X Zone 28 (km)
15 UTM-Y Zone 28 (km) CALMET Winds Level 1 (10m) Aug 20, am UTM-X Zone 28 (km)
16 Observations MM5-2km Somastadagerdi JULY 2000 MM5-2km+sol MM5-1km
17 Eskifjordur Station Observations CALMET MM5 Summer Winter
18 Seley Station Observations CALMET MM5 Summer Winter
19 Conclusions - Meteorological Modelling Importance of evaluation of model performance METEVAL software package MM5 grid resolution required to resolve landwater boundary was more constraining than that needed to resolve terrain MM5 performed reasonably well at 1 km grid spacing in reproducing observed diurnal and seasonal flow patterns
20 UTM Northing (km) Complex Source Configuration - Layout of Potrooms and Point Sources Two Potrooms TALL Anode Cooling Stack Seawater Scrubber Stacks #1-# Furnace Stacks UTM Easting (km) P SK01-00A Layout1 (1)1.pdf
21 Major Modelling Issues Buoyant line sources Plume rise from line source is different than point sources Point source plume rise: ~F 1/3 X 2/3 Line source plume rise: ~F 1/2 X Function of wind-direction, number of line sources, spacing between lines and buoyancy parameter Multiple source plume rise enhancement Building downwash effects Buoyant point sources Building downwash effects
22 Major Modelling Issues Complex dispersion situation Terrain-plume interactions Plume impingement Overwater and over-land boundary layers Strong inversion conditions Coastal fumigation and inversion breakup conditions Light wind speed/calm wind dispersion Strong spatial inhomogeneities in wind and turbulence fields
23 Dispersion Modelling Approach CALPUFF non-steady-state dispersion model Uses 3-D meteorological fields produced by MM5/CALMET Contains special buoyant line source plume rise, building downwash and dispersion algorithms Complex terrain effects Calm wind dispersion, fumigation effects Wet and dry deposition effects Overwater dispersion and coastal interaction effects Dense (100m, 200m) receptor density in fiord
24 Representation of a line source as a series of point sources Figure 3 Crosswind line source and point source xu/q profiles (E stability, x = 300 m).
25 Line vs. Point Source Plume Rise Point Source Plume Rise Line Source Plume Rise, Parallel Winds Line Source Plume Rise, Perpendicular Winds
26 SF 6 Tracer Experiment (1979) - Comparison of Line Source Dispersion with Point/Volume Dispersion Light Winds Non-Buoyant Volumes Observed Buoyant Lines Buoyant Points: 5 pts 20 pts 40 pts
27 SF 6 Tracer Experiment (1979) - Comparison of Line Source Dispersion with Point/Volume Dispersion High Winds Non-Buoyant Volumes Observed Buoyant Lines Buoyant Points: 5 pts 20 pts 40 pts
28 Conclusions on Line Source Plume Rise Modelling Approach Line source plume rise has a different functional relationship with buoyancy and distance than point source plume rise Other effects include directionality and multiple source enhancements effects Cannot reproduce proper line source buoyant rise with point source model (potentially large under or over estimation of impacts, depending on N) Treatment of potrooms as non-buoyant volume sources significantly overestimates concentrations
29 1-Hour SO 2 Number of hours exceeding 350 μg/m 3 UTM-North (km) - Zone (Allowed exceedances: 24/year) UTM-East (km) - Zone 28 1 to <2 2 to <3 3 to <4 4 to <5 5 to <6 6 to <25
30 Conclusions - Dispersion Modelling Ability to treat line source dispersion and plume rise properly is critical Line source plume rise cannot be represented with traditional point source equations Concentration patterns reflect impact of terrain channeled flow, recirculation, convergence and overwater transport High impact areas at base of fjord and across water on opposite shore
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