VALIDATION OF ONE-YEAR LAMI MODEL RE-ANALYSIS ON THE PO- VALLEY, NORTHERN ITALY. COMPARISON TO CALMET MODEL OUTPUT ON THE SUB-AREA OF VENETO REGION

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1 VALIDATION OF ONE-YEAR LAMI MODEL RE-ANALYSIS ON THE PO- VALLEY, NORTHERN ITALY. COMPARISON TO CALMET MODEL OUTPUT ON THE SUB-AREA OF VENETO REGION Denise Pernigtti, Maria Sansne and Massim Ferrari Institute ARPA Venet, Meterlgy Centre f Tel (CMT), Italy INTRODUCTION This wrk began as part f the CTN ACE, year 2004, Task : mdels bservatry with tw appliatin n Mediterranean Area (Italy) held by dr. Mar Deserti f ARPA- Meterlgial Servie f Emilia Rmagna (SIM). The Task had the aim t prepare input data (emissins inventry, bundary nditins and meterlgy) fr an inter-mparisn exerise between Quality Air Mdels and t test a pssible perative hain in rder t run daily an air quality mdel fr the tw areas f Italy: Padan-Adriati (BPA) and Mediterranean (MED). In this framewrk SIM made a 1 year LAMI reanalysis, frm Marh 2003 t April The aim f this wrk is t verify the quality f the surfae wind field utput f this reanalysis and t mpare it with the ne f the CALMET meterlgial diagnsti mdel, urrently in use in the ARPA-Venet Meterlgial Centre (CMT). SHORT DESCRIPTION OF THE LAMI 3.9 REANALYSIS AT SIM Lkal Mdell (LM) is a state-f-the-art nn-hydrstati meterlgial mdel; its develpment started at DWD and it is nw arried n by the Weather Servies f Germany (DWD), Switzerland, Italy and Greee thrugh the COSMO nsrtium. The LAMI (Limited Area Mdel Italy) prjet is based n an agreement amng UGM and ARPA-SIM t prdue a numerial freast based n Lkal Mdel n Italy; it runs twie a day at 7 km hrizntal reslutin and 35 vertial levels. Fr the CTN a year-reanalysis was run and the mdel utput was split in the tw areas f interest (see Fig. 1). This appliatin has the fllwing harateristis: Initial nditins: the run is a mpsite f 732 runs, eah 12hurs lng. Fr eah run the upper initial nditins are given by the previus LAMI run whilst the surfae nditin are given by interplatin f the ECMWF analysis; bundary nditin: ne way nesting by Davies relaxatin sheme; every 6 hurs ECMWF analysis n 60 vertial levels and hrizntal reslutin 0.5 ; data assimilatin: nudging f bservatin (GTS data ming frm UCEA fr hrizntal wind vetr, ptential temperature, relative humidity, 'near-surfae' pressure) in a ntinuus yle, with idential analysis inrements used during 6 advetin time steps. Data are analysed vertially first, and then spread alng hrizntal surfaes. The balane is ahieved between hydrstati temperature and gestrphi wind inrements and 'near-surfae' pressure analysis inrements; platfrm: luster Linux with 12 pressrs. Ttal run-time 40 CPU days; reslutin: 7km in hrizntal, 16 vertial levels up t 5000m. SHORT DESCRIPTION OF CALMET APPLICATION AT CMT CALMET is a diagnsti meterlgial mdel, used t reate the input fr dispersin mdelling. The surfae wind field is alulated by interplating the data, plus taking int aunt sme features due t rgraphy like slpe flws. It is run n Venet regin by CMT with a reslutin f 4 km and 10 vertial levels up t 3000m (see Fig. 1 fr dmain details). Fr this appliatin the same surfae data f the LAMI re-analysis have been used. DATA SET FOR VERIFICATION The CTN grup llet data frm different Italian Reginal Meterlgial Servies in rder t build a surfae wind data-set fr verifiatin. Sme f these meterlgial statins have

2 mst f the seleted statins are shwn (in Venet regin they are t many): the wind rse display

2 been rejeted beause they had t many missing data r beause they were representative f a very lal wind-regime. In Fig. 2 mst f the seleted statins are shwn (in Venet regin they are t many): the wind rse display allws t rejet statin with strange behaviur. Fig. 1:LAMI dmain, subareas fr CTN (blak) and CALMET dmain (white) Fig. 2: wind rses fr mst f the seleted surfae statins

Fig. 3: wind rses fr LAMI (up) and CALMET (right) The Piemnte (PIE) statins are in the WEST, Emilia- Rmagna (EMR) in the CENTER and SOUTH, Venet (VEN) in the NORTH-EAST and are at 10 and 5m (the last

Frm this figures is pssible t regnise that the LAMI mdel verestimates the strength f the nrth-estern wind (Bra) n the EAST-side f the PO-valley, in partiular suth f the Alps (marked with eastern val).

3 Fig. 3: wind rses fr LAMI (up) and CALMET (right) The Piemnte (PIE) statins are in the WEST, Emilia- Rmagna (EMR) in the CENTER and SOUTH, Venet (VEN) in the NORTH-EAST and are at 10 and 5m (the last are in muntainus regins). Frm this figures is pssible t regnise that the LAMI mdel verestimates the strength f the nrth-estern wind (Bra) n the EAST-side f the PO-valley, in partiular suth f the Alps (marked with eastern val). The LAMI mdel is als are verestimating the strength f the estern wind nrthern part f the Appennins (marked with the entral val). As expeted the wind field f the CALMET mdel is muh mre unifrm. LAMI AND CALMET STATISTICALVERIFICATION T evaluate the perfrmane f the LAMI and CALMET wind field we alulated the statistial parameters reprted belw, where wv (s,t) is the wind velity alulated n the statin s at the time t (ne instantaneus value every hur), wv (s,t) is the relative bserved wind velity (ne hur-average n salars value), ntt(s) is the ttal number f bservatins n statin s, σ (s), σ (s) are the standard deviatins.

4 (wv (s, t) - wv (s, t)) BIAS ( s) = t ntt(s) (1); RMSE(s) = SKILL - VAR(s) σ ( s) = (3) σ ( s) t (wv (s, t) - wv (ntt(s) -1) (s,t)) 2 (2) Fig. 4: distributins f statistial parameters n verifiatin statins (wind velity) Fr the statistial evaluatin fr wind diretin we nsider the fllwing indies: %30 and %60 (% ases with wind diretin in agreement within 30 and 60, respetively), als upled with wind intensity range suess (within 0.5 r 1 m/s) as in Table 1, last tw rws. Fig. 5: distributin f statistial parameters n verifiatin statins (wind diretin) DIST takes int aunt bth wind intensity and diretin (u(t,s) and v(t,s) being the wind vetr mpnents).

5 2 2 ((u (t,s) - u (t,s)) + ( v (t,s) - v (t,s)) ) DIST ( s) = t (4) ntt(s) In Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 the histgrams f the statistial parameter n verifiatin statins are reprted: the first rws f figures refer t LAMI mdel, BPA dmain as in Fig. 3 (42 statins); the send rws refer t LAMI evaluated just n the surfae statins inside the CALMET dmain t be mpared t the third, whih refer t CALMET mdel (21 statins). Table 1: MEDIANS fr the distributins f sme statistial values LAMI MEDIAN value PIE EMR VEN CALMET CALMET dmain # DATA MODEL_MEAN STATIONS MEAN MODEL DEV STATIONS DEV BIAS (m/s) RMSE (m/s) SKVAR R (rrelatin) % SUCC % SUCC DIST (m/s) % 0.5m/s & %1m/s & CONCLUSIONS LAMI mdel verestimates systematially the wind intensity, espeially in the Venet and Piemnte regins; CALMET perfrms slightly better n the Venet regin but is still verestimating the wind. This uld mean that the surfae data set used in bth mdels are nt enugh representative f the area wind regime, fr example they d nt desribe prperly the deay f Bra-wind in the hinterland. The fat that LAMI verestimate the wind mre than CALMET, as an be seen by lking at the areas marked with vals in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3, uld mean that there is smething t be adjusted in the dynami interatin between wind and sea r rgraphy, r in the bundary nditins. It has t be nted that n Piemnte the rrelatin (R) and the rates f suess (%30 and %60) are partiularly pr, in partiular LAMI desn t seem t mdel rretly the nrth-western mpnent. REFERENCES Minguzzi, E. and S. Bande, 2004: WP 2.2 e 2.4: Predispsizine dell input meterlgi e delle ndizini al ntrn. Presentatin held during the 2 Seminari I mdelli per la valutazine e gestine della qualità dell aria. Matera,4 ttbre 2004 Shraff C. and R. Hess, 2003: A desriptin f the Nnhydrstati reginal Mdel LM, Part III: data Assimilatin. Available frm COSMO web site Sire, J.et al., 2000: A user s guide fr the CALMET Meterlgial Mdel

Content 1. Introduction 2. The Field s Configuration 3. The Lorentz Force 4. The Ampere Force 5. Discussion References

Content 1. Introduction 2. The Field s Configuration 3. The Lorentz Force 4. The Ampere Force 5. Discussion References Khmelnik. I. Lrentz Fre, Ampere Fre and Mmentum Cnservatin Law Quantitative. Analysis and Crllaries. Abstrat It is knwn that Lrentz Fre and Ampere fre ntradits the Third Newtn Law, but it des nt ntradit