Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting. Hurricane Maria Event Recap Report. March Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

Transcription

1 Hurricane Maria Event Recap Report March 2018 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Meteorological Recap 4 Event Details 11 Lesser Antilles 11 Greater Antilles 14 Energy Impacts 20 Transportation Impacts 22 Environmental Impacts 24 Historical Comparison 25 Impact Forecasting Reconnaissance Trip 26 Impact Forecasting: Modeled Results 29 Financial Losses 30 Appendix A 31 Appendix B 32 Appendix C 33 Appendix D 34 Contact Information 37 Hurricane Maria 2

3 Executive Summary Hurricane Maria became the costliest hurricane to track across the Caribbean on record, and the secondcostliest storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The powerful system left catastrophic damage and human impact on the island of Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Caribbean, including Dominica and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Extended power outages and destroyed infrastructure in Puerto Rico led to significant business interruption. The total economic cost of Maria was roughly estimated around USD65 billion. Public and private insurers cited payouts around USD27 billion. Maria was officially recognized as a Tropical Storm by the National Hurricane Center on September 16, The storm tracked through an area with extremely warm ocean waters and low wind shear, reaching Category 1 intensity by September 18. In a span of only 24 hours, Maria underwent an extremely rapid intensification cycle to reach Category 5 intensity, which was shortly followed by a direct landfall on the island of Dominica with devastating effects. In the following hours and days, Maria tracked closely to the areas previously affected by Hurricane Irma. Despite undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, the storm did not weaken during the regeneration process and reach its peak intensity with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph). In the morning hours of September 20, Maria made landfall in southeastern Puerto Rico as a Category 4 hurricane after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. This made Maria the strongest storm to come ashore on the island since It would become the costliest disaster in the history of Puerto Rico. After exiting the island, Maria took a turn to the north and did not directly affect the mainland United States. However, some impacts resulting from high surf was felt in several coastal Atlantic states. A combination of extreme wind speeds, dangerous storm surge and torrential rainfall resulted in substantial damage on several Caribbean islands. Hurricane Maria was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall in Dominica, a small Caribbean nation. Extreme conditions resulted in damage or destruction of 98 percent of buildings on the island. Widespread damage in all sectors of the economy occurred and more than 30 people lost their lives. Impacts of lesser degree were also felt on the neighboring islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe. Widespread damage was sustained by the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands, which were previously affected by Hurricane Irma. Maria s impact in Puerto Rico was devastating and resulted in the worst natural catastrophe to ever impact the island. Official statistics estimated that at least 55 people had died and a minimum of 250,000 homes had been severely damaged or destroyed across the island. The catastrophe also highlighted the issue of a significant portion of residential property being built illegally. A majority of residents did not own hazard insurance and the vast majority of the insured loss in Puerto Rico was sustained by the commercial sector. Prolonged power and water outages impacted the entire island months after the catastrophe and led to major business interruption. Apart from widespread wind damage, coastal and inland flooding ensued and rivers crested at record levels. Hurricane Maria became one of the costliest natural catastrophes ever recorded globally. It became the eighth-costliest event in terms of economic loss, and sixth from the insurance perspective. Together with Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Maria substantially contributed to a high economic toll during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Total economic losses are estimated at USD65 billion, with the insurance sector covering USD27 billion. The vast majority of the Maria s impact was recorded in Puerto Rico. Hurricane Maria 3

4 Meteorological Recap The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began watching an organizing cluster of thunderstorms on September 14 (00:00 UTC) after it had exited the west coast of Africa a few days prior. The agency initially gave the tropical wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days. However, the system began to organize more quickly than initially thought and the NHC declared the system Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen on September 16 (15:00 UTC). During this time, initial tropical storm watches were issued for parts of the Leeward Islands. (Beginning in 2017, the NHC started using the term Potential Tropical Cyclone to describe a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone, but poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.) The NHC would officially deem the disturbance a Tropical Depression on September 16 (18:00 UTC) and Tropical Storm Maria just three hours later. The storm continued to get better organized while tracking west-northwestward through the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. Steady intensification occurred as Maria moved through an area with minimal vertical wind shear and extremely warm ocean waters. The cyclone would officially reach hurricane intensity with 75 mph (120 kph) winds on September 17 (21:00 UTC) while the outer fringes of the system started to enter the Leeward Islands. Maria s explosive 24-hour intensification (Source: NASA, CSU) Hurricane Maria 4

5 Maria landfall in Dominica (Source: Meteo France) By September 18, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph (130 kph) sustained winds. During the next 24 hours, it would undergo explosive rapid intensification to Category 5 intensity. During the 24 hour span between September 18 (00:00 UTC) and September 19 (00:00 UTC), the NHC projected that Maria would undergo intensification with a likelihood of becoming a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) during the next 24 hours. One of the more trusted statistically-based intensity models known as the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gave a 51 percent chance of rapid intensification by 30 knots during the upcoming 24 hour timeframe. Maria would eventually intensify by 70 knots in the 24 hour stretch and reaching an incredible intensity of 160 mph (260 kph) while nearing the island of Dominica. The minimum central pressure would fall from 982 millibars to 925 hours during this time as well; further signifying Maria s explosive growth. Maria would officially make landfall in Dominica at approximately 9:15 PM local time on September 18 (01:35 UTC September 19) as a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph (260 kph) winds. This is the first time on record that a Category 5 storm has made landfall in Dominica. After landfall, Maria continued to track west-northwestward with slight wobbles as the system initially started to show signs of an eyewall replacement cycle. This was significant given that the storm had a small hurricane wind field, with hurricane-force winds only extending roughly 30 miles (45 kilometers) from the center. Given the small wind radii, this meant that any slight wobble could have a major impact in terms of wind-driven damage across the rest of the Caribbean. Hurricane warnings were in effect for much of the northern Caribbean including the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and other small islands in the Lesser Antilles on September 19 as Maria moved closer to impacting areas only recently devastated by Hurricane Irma. After moving away from Dominica, Maria briefly weakened below Category 5 intensity with 155 mph (250 kph) winds, but would regain Category 5 strength in less than four hours while traversing very warm waters in the Caribbean. During the day on September 19, Maria continued to track west-northwestward towards the Virgin Islands (British and U.S.) and Puerto Rico. The system maintained Category 5 strength with 160 mph (260 kph) winds as large swells began to batter many islands. An eyewall replacement cycle did commence as the hurricane and tropical storm-force wind field radii began to expand. However, similarly to Hurricane Irma, Maria did not weaken during the regeneration process. In fact, pressure levels continued to drop and wind speeds slightly increased during the day. The new peak intensity was 175 mph (280 kph) as minimum central pressure plunged to 909 millibars. Maria s eyewall passing USVI, September 20 (Source: NOAA) Hurricane Maria 5

6 Maria at Puerto Rico landfall, thermal satellite image (Source: NASA, CSU) Maria officially made landfall in Puerto Rico at around 06:15 AM AST on September 20 (10:15 UTC) as the center of its circulation crossed the southeastern shores of the island near Yabucoa, located approximately 30 miles (48 kilometers) SSE of San Juan. Maria made landfall as an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with 155 mph (250 kph) sustained winds, shortly after being downgraded from the highest category. This was the strongest landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928 and the first Category 4 storm to directly affect the island since The center of Maria s circulation exited Puerto Rico at around 02:00 PM AST (06:00 UTC). After spending roughly four hours over land, it emerged in the Atlantic as a weakened Category 3 strength hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 115 mph (185 kph). Maria continued to bring torrential rainfall to Puerto Rico as it tracked towards the Dominican Republic that prompted extensive flash flooding. By early evening, conditions were deteriorating in northeastern parts of the country. Maria was briefly downgraded to a Category 2 storm as the effects of tracking across the rough terrain of Puerto Rico were being felt by the system, but it later regained major hurricane intensity near the eastern Dominican Republic. The storm remained just offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic maintaining Category 3 intensity as it tracked near the coast. After passing Hispaniola, Maria took a north-northwestward turn on September 22 and neared Turks & Caicos and the Bahamas, while maintaining Category 3 status on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane s outer rainbands still affected Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands at the time, dumping as much as 8 inches (203 millimeters) of additional rainfall. Maria remained offshore and later tracked relatively slowly northward through the Sargasso Sea over waters that were previously cooled significantly by the passage of Hurricane Jose. This, coupled with moderate wind shear from southwest, resulted in gradual weakening for the next 72 hours of Maria s lifespan. As Maria neared the coast of North Carolina, dangerous storm surge risk arose for much of the U.S. east coast. Due to steady weakening, Maria s convective pattern was gradually losing organization, while the central pressure rose to 970 millibars by September 26. Maria and Jose, September 22 (Source: NASA, CSU) Maria s extratropical transition began on September 29, after briefly regaining Category 1 intensity and turning eastward. The storm was gradually losing its tropical characteristics, while accelerating significantly through northern Atlantic. Nevertheless, Maria retained its Tropical Storm status despite sea surface temperatures of around 25 degrees Celsius, as it was still able to maintain a concentrated area of deep convection just to the east of the center. Maria became fully extratropical on September 30, after being absorbed by a mid-latitude frontal zone. Hurricane Maria 6

7 Storm Statistics Fastest intensification from Tropical Depression to Category 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean (53 hours and 45 minutes); previous record Hurricane Wilma (57 hours) Maria s lowest pressure of 924 millibars on September 19 (UTC) was the lowest for an Atlantic hurricane this late in the calendar year since Hurricane Wilma Maria was the strongest hurricane and the only Category 5 storm to strike Dominica on record (160 mph) Maria was the second strongest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico on record (155 mph). Category 5 Okeechobee hurricane from 1928 retains the record Season Statistics 2017 is the first Atlantic season since 2007 to have two Category 5 storms 2017 is the second Atlantic season on record to have two landfalling Category 5 storms (2007; Dean and Felix) 2016/2017 is the first time since 2004/2005 to have back-to-back seasons with Category 5 storms Atlantic seasons on record with multiple Category 5 storms: 2017, 2007, 2005, 1961, 1933, 1932 Storm Data Winds & Pressure Hurricane Maria 7

8 Rainfall (Puerto Rico) Location Storm Total Rainfall (in.) Location Storm Total Rainfall (in.) Garcia, PR Bayamon, PR Villalba, PR Cambalache, PR Lomas, PR Lago Cidra, PR Sumidero, PR Bairoa, PR Aibonito, PR Marueno, PR Lago El Guineo, PR Maricao, PR Coamo, PR Pole Ojea, PR 7.90 Caguas, PR Coco, PR 7.60 Utuado, PR Maria Antonio, PR 7.10 Comerio, PR Lares, PR 6.90 Yauco, PR Naguabo, PR 6.30 Jagual, PR Source: NOAA While most focus from Maria was on the wind and storm surge component to the event, there was extensive rainfall that affected much of the island. As seen in the table above and the graphics below, rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches was widespread, including specific locations in southeast Puerto Rico that recorded nearly inches. A study by NOAA indicated that in one 12-hour time interval at landfall, rainfall rates with an estimated return period of 1-in-1,000 years (or a 0.01 percent chance of happening in any given year) were cited across eastern, central and western parts of the island. Hurricane Maria 8

9 Wind Speeds (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands) Location Maximum Sustained Wind (mph) Maximum Wind Gust (mph) Minimum Pressure (mb) Buck Island, USVI* Christiansted, St. Croix, USVI N/A 136 N/A Salinas, PR N/A 118 N/A Frederiksted, St. Croix, USVI N/A 115 N/A St. Thomas, USVI N/A Savana Island, USVI* N/A Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, USVI* San Juan, La Puntilla, PR N/A San Juan, PR Marina Del Rey, PR Roosevelt Roads, PR BUOY (South of St. John, USVI) BUOY (Vieques Island, USVI) BUOY (San Juan, PR) St. Croix, USVI N/A Henry E. Rohlsen Airport, St. Croix, USVI Fajardo, PR N/A Source: NOAA *Measuring equipment was damaged by Hurricane Maria. The NWS Doppler radar located near San Juan, Puerto Rico (see photo on the left) was also destroyed. The radome of the radar together with its tower was supposed to be capable of withstanding winds of up to 134 mph (216 kph). Source: NOAA Hurricane Maria 9

10 Storm Surge & Storm Tide Location Storm Surge (feet) Storm Tide (feet) Yabucoa Harbor, PR Mayaguez, PR* Vieques, PR Mona Island, PR Arecibo, PR San Juan Bay, PR Fajardo, PR* Culebra, PR St. Croix St. Thomas, USVI St. John, USVI * preliminary, gauge not in operation (Source: USGS) Hurricane Maria 10

11 Event Details Lesser Antilles Dominica Roseau, Dominica (Source: AFP) Hurricane Maria made a catastrophic landfall on the island of Dominica shortly after strengthening to Category 5 intensity. According to the prime minister of the tiny Caribbean nation, Maria left widespread devastation in its wake. Reports out of the island indicated mass devastation as the vast majority of structures sustained some level of damage. All communication with the island was severely disrupted due to extensive damage to telecommunications and the electrical grid infrastructure. By mid-november, the government of Dominica reported that 31 people had been killed while a further 37 were officially listed as missing, but presumed dead. Damage surveys revealed that 98 percent of all of Dominica s buildings sustained roof damage while approximately half sustained damage to the building framework. This left more than 50,000 of the country s 73,000 residents directly affected. The worst of the damage was sustained in the eastern part of the island and in remote rural areas. The United Nations reported that it had conducted a survey of nearly 30,000 buildings and discovered that 44 percent were destroyed or severely damaged, 28.5 percent experienced damage to at least one-quarter of its structure, and another 27 percent had minor damage to the roof. The actual breakout counts included destroyed (4,804 homes), severe damage (6,559), moderate damage (7,209), and minor damage (6,764). Of these totals, 163 facilities were educational facilities such as schools (108) and daycare centers. All 13,575 students on the island were affected. The Food and Agricultural Organization reported a 100-percent loss to the agricultural industry in Dominica which employed 25 percent of the country s workforce at the time of Maria s landfall and, over the past five years, contributed on average 15 percent of the country s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Severe damage was additionally noted to farm buildings and infrastructure (both traffic and irrigation), forest reserves, and coastal fisheries. Unconfirmed numbers of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, poultry, and other livestock were also lost. Fisheries were additionally affected. Source: IRIN Maria was the first Category 5 hurricane on record to make landfall in Dominica. The previous record was Hurricane David, which struck Dominica 38 years previously at Category 4 strength. That storm, which brushed the southern coast of the island, left at least 37 people dead and the national economy devastated. More recently, 2015 s Tropical Storm Erika caused more than USD500 million (2018 USD) in damage which equaled 90 percent of the country s GDP. Prior to Maria s landfall, Dominica was still recovering from Erika s flood impact. Hurricane Maria 11

12 Infrastructure Social Sector Productive Sector Aon Benfield In an Initial Post-Disaster Needs Assessment, conducted by the World Bank, the United Nations, the Caribbean Development Bank, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank and the European Union in September 2017 it was revealed that the total direct damage inflicted in Dominica amounted to at least XCD2.51 billion (USD931 million). Further indirect losses in agriculture, tourism and other sectors amounted to an estimated XCD1.0 billion (USD382 million), bringing the preliminary total estimate of damage to nearly USD1.4 billion, or 167 percent of the island s GDP (USD525 million). Additional assessments were ongoing by the aforementioned organizations, with a more complete detailed summary to help assess the sustainability of the nation s development goals. A summary of damage and losses per sector, as provided in the executive summary of the initial assessment, is provided in the chart below. The highest direct damage occurred on residential property and on infrastructure. Losses can be defined as lost economic value of goods and services due to business interruption, lost revenue, decreased number of tourists coming to the country, etc. The highest indirect losses are expected in agriculture, as Maria s impacts will likely affect the sector in the long-term due to a combination of factors, including lost yields, damaged or destroyed equipment, temporary loss of workforce and high cost of recovery. Agriculture Fisheries Forestry Commerce Tourism Housing Education Health Culture Transport Electricity Water and Sanitation Telecommunication Airports and Ports Disaster Risk Management Damages (Direct) Losses (Lost Economic Value) (USD millions) Death toll: 31+ dead; 34+ missing Economic loss: Billions USD (preliminary: USD1.4 billion) Insured Loss: USD19.3 million (partial; Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility payment) Hurricane Maria 12

13 French Caribbean (Guadeloupe & Martinique) Basse-Terre, Guadeloupe (Source: Reuters) Power outages across Guadeloupe in the aftermath of Maria affected some 80,000 people 40 percent of the country s population. At least two people were killed while two others were listed as missing following the capsizing of their boat near La Desirade Island, east of the main island of Guadeloupe. Extensive damage to roofs was reported along with significant damage to vegetation in Marie-Galante, La Desirade, and Les Santes. Several areas of flooding were also reported in the aftermath of Maria across the island, particularly in and around the southern town of Basse-Terre. Severe damage was reported to the agriculture sector as banana crops were decimated. Production of the crop dropped to zero following the passage of Maria and was expected to remain at that level until May Production for 2018 was forecast to account for just one-third of normal production. Total economic damage to agriculture alone was listed at EUR50 million (USD62 million). According to preliminary estimates of the French Ministry of Economy, the total economic loss on Guadeloupe were minimally listed at EUR100 million (USD120 million), but expected to be higher. Maria skirted the island of Martinique with the center of the eye located approximately 25 miles (40 kilometers) off the island s coast. At least two people were injured. Immediately following the passage of the storm, damage surveys conducted by local Civil Security revealed that the damage in Martinique was minor and insignificant. Nevertheless 70,000 homes were left without power and 50,000 were deprived of water supply on the island. The majority of those affected were in the communes of Morne-Rouge and Gros-Morne. Fort-de-France, Martinique (Source: AFP) Similarly to Guadeloupe, significant damage was reported to the agriculture sector as 70 percent of the banana crop was badly affected. In the immediate aftermath of Maria, production of the crop dropped to zero and was expected to remain at that level until May Production for 2018 was forecast to account for just one-third of normal production. Total economic damage to agriculture was listed at EUR35 million (USD44 million). The French Insurance Federation (FFA) noted in early November, that 16,600 claims had been filed in both Guadeloupe and Martinique, amounting to a total insured loss of at least EUR80 million (USD94 million). The agency noted that the total loss is likely to be revised upwards. Death toll: 4 dead or missing Economic loss: Hundreds of millions USD, including USD100 million to the agriculture sector alone Insured Loss: USD94 million (16,600 claims) Hurricane Maria 13

14 Greater Antilles U.S. & British Virgin Islands Maria s eyewall passed directly over the island of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Severe damage was sustained. Communications across St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas, and Water Island were down and widespread power outages were also noted. Photos that did emerge from the territory indicated severe flooding had occurred on St. Thomas while multiple homes had sustained extensive damage on St. Croix. Images from St. Croix also showed extensive damage to vegetation and to the electrical grid. Many roads were unpassable. After the storm s passage, the Governor of the U.S. Virgin Islands placed a 24-hour curfew on all four islands of the archipelago in order to expedite relief and rescue operations. The British Virgin Islands were also impacted by Maria, and according to local residents, the storm destroyed much of what was left by Irma just weeks prior. Communication and power outages hampered relief efforts. Flooding in St. Thomas (Source: U.S. Virgin Islands Government) Across the islands of St. Thomas and St. John damage was described as catastrophic. At least three confirmed fatalities were reported: two on St. Thomas and one on St. John. One of the deaths on St. Thomas was reported in Anna s Retreat and was attributed to drowning while the other was as the result of a landslide which struck the victim s home in Estate Frenchman s Bay. Among the buildings severely damaged were the Schneider Regional Medical Center and a fire station. Multiple homes and buildings sustained severe damage, many of which were destroyed. In total, the combined damage toll of homes and businesses from both Irma and Maria was roughly 18,500. Reports suggested that up to 70 percent of all buildings on St. Croix were damaged or destroyed, including at least two schools that were levelled. Fallen trees and power lines were widely reported while flash flooding and coastal flooding also caused significant damage. The hardest-hit islands were uninhabitable for weeks, and in some instances, months. Death toll: 3 dead; 4 missing Economic Loss: USD2.0+ billion Insured Loss: USD700 million Hurricane Maria 14

15 Puerto Rico Maria made its second landfall in Puerto Rico in the morning hours of September 20, bringing lifethreatening wind, storm surge and very heavy rainfall. Data from the National Weather Service indicated that more than 80 percent of Puerto Rico received at least 10.0 inches (254 millimeters) of rainfall. A peak rainfall total of inches (963 millimeters) was recorded at Caguas, making Maria the wettest storm to affect Puerto Rico since 1956 when Tropical Depression Fifteen in 1970 brought inches (1,059 millimeters) of rain to Jayuya. Prior to the arrival of Maria, more than 13,000 residents were evacuated to emergency shelters across the island. The government of Puerto Rico officially listed the death toll at 55, including 26 direct fatalities and 29 indirect fatalities. They additionally listed that 60 people were missing. Officials later reported that 472 more deaths occurred in Puerto Rico during the month of September 2017 compared to September 2016 leading many to speculate that Maria s death toll was actually much higher. Several more people were injured as tremendous wind gusts and excessive rainfall caused substantial flooding. Damage to buildings and electrical grid (Source: Puerto Rico Governor) In the immediate aftermath of landfall, Maria prompted a country-wide power blackout 100 percent of the territory as it decimated the power grid and destroyed telecommunication towers. It should be noted that prior to Maria s arrival, approximately 70,000 of the island s 3.4 million residents remained without power after Hurricane Irma grazed the country on September 6. The Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) reported that much of the country was expected to remain without power for up to six months (or longer) as the damage Maria inflicted to the grid was so severe. According to reports from PREPA, the damage inflicted was historic and every part of the system was affected from transmission towers to hydro-electric dams. They additionally noted that they had lost approximately 80 percent of their transmission and distribution infrastructure. Guayama, Puerto Rico (Source: Reuters) Two weeks after the storm, on October 4, it was reported that 95 percent of electricity customers remained without power and 55 percent of the population did not have access to clean drinking water supplies. While power and water restoration occurred, it was gradual in reaching all customers across the island. As of late February 2018, roughly 20 percent or 253,000+ customers remained without electricity. At least 60 percent of residents were also without access to clean water at the event s peak, though most water service had been restored. Hurricane Maria 15

16 Structural Damage Structural damage was substantial across the entire island. While most of the impacts resulted from wind-related damage, there were also a notable percentage of structures impacted by coastal flooding and inland riverine and flash flooding. Puerto Rico, which had been severely affected by an extended financial crisis well prior to Maria s landfall, was already marked by a significant portion of structures built illegally and not to code. An extended study by The Miami Herald in February 2018 highlighted that 44 percent of the Puerto Rican population lived at or below the poverty level. Given this reality, many homes had been constructed very poorly and stood no chance against Maria s high-end Category 4 wind speeds at the time of landfall. Poor home construction (Source: Impact Forecasting) Statistics from the Puerto Rican government indicated that at least 250,000 homes had been severely damaged, including 70,000 of those listed as destroyed. It was anticipated that final statistics would indicate more than 300,000 homes with major damage. FEMA noted that at least 60,000 homes had roof damage. Despite new building code requirements in 2011 mandating that structures be built to withstand winds of up to 140 mph (220 kph), the reality is that most homes were constructed under the previous code which required that structures be able to withstand winds of up to 125 mph (205 kph). Maria made landfall with estimated sustained wind speeds of 155 mph (250 kph). It has been reported that as many as one million homes in Puerto Rico or half of the entire home building stock had been built illegally and without proper permits. Given Maria s intensity and the reality of the poor construction of so many structures, this enhanced the scope of structural damage in many communities. Puerto Rico s governor requested at least USD31 billion to help repair and rebuild homes in the territory, though The Miami Herald study highlighted that many residents in the poorest communities had rebuilt their homes on their own using the same materials as before (such as zinc roofing). However, it is worth noting that many parts of Puerto Rico, including San Juan, had many homes and structures built to code that performed very well. A sizeable portion of Well performing concrete bunker constructed home (Source: Impact Forecasting) Puerto Rico s residential building stock includes reinforced concrete bunker-type construction. This type of construction is known to be wellperforming during high intensity wind events, and it was confirmed during Maria. During a damage survey of the island, Impact Forecasting determined that the only cases in which concrete bunker homes incurred damage was when wood-frame or unreinforced masonry rooms or porches were added. Other cases included when residents were not able to afford paying for an entire concrete home and mixed other less reliable building materials not up to code. Commercial structures in Puerto Rico are primarily built with reinforced concrete or reinforced masonry, and did well in Maria. Hurricane Maria 16

17 Wind-driven damage was most substantial among residential properties given the previously cited construction revelations. A separate Reuters study in February 2018 highlighted that just 344,000 occupied homes in Puerto Rico had mortgages. This is out of more than 1.2 million total occupied homes on the island. U.S. Census Bureau data indicated that another 330,000 homes were vacant in 2016 as the island s population continued to decline while facing a severe financial crisis. Due to hazard insurance only being required to homeowners who have a mortgage, this meant that a majority of residents did not own any type of hazard policy for protection against disaster. It also further highlighted the excessive number of illegally built homes. Independent studies have found that legal home construction of new buildings fell from 16,000 in 2004 to less than 2,500 in These statistics only provide additional background as to why the vast majority of the insured loss from Maria in Puerto Rico was incurred by the commercial sector. Billboard collapse onto abandoned home (Source: Impact Forecasting) Among the hardest-hit areas from a wind perspective during Maria came all along the eastern and southern Puerto Rican coast where landfall occurred. Some of the worst damage was noted in the eastern towns of Humacao, Yabucoa, Naguabo, Fajardo, Juncos, San Lorenzo, Ceiba, Cataño, Aguada, and Caguas though virtually every community on the island incurred some level of damage or direct impact from the storm. Specific damage examples included in Aguada, which was located on the western shore of Puerto Rico, where more than 8,000 homes were completely destroyed in the municipality. Similar affects were noted in the coastal city of Cataño, where local officials noted more than 360 homes destroyed in a singular neighborhood alone (Juana Matos). Similar tales of destruction were cited across the entire island. Additional damage of note occurred to the famed Arecibo Observatory radio telescope. While damage was not as bad as initially feared, the 305-meter-wide dish the second largest radio telescope in the world lost some reflective panels and most of a 29-meter-long antenna. Arecibo is notable for observing stars, exoplanets, asteroids, and searching for signals from extraterrestrial activity since the 1960s. Water Damage Beyond the significant wind impacts, there was also coastal and inland flooding in many locations. Maria s large rainbands dropped tremendous amounts of rainfall that led to several rivers rapidly swelling. The National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings for the entire island of Puerto Rico. Both the Rio Grande de Arecibo and the Rio de la Plata crested at record levels. Data from the United States Geological Survey showed that 53 out of 65 river gauges in Puerto Rico were at or above flood stage. Of this total, 30 reached or exceeded major flood stage while 13 matched or exceeded their all-time record levels including the Rio Culebrinas, Rio Gurabo, Rio Grande de Manati, Rio Cibuco, and Rio Guanajibo. The Guajataca Dam, constructed in 1929 to create Lago de Guajataca, experienced a failure as a large fissure (34 inches (86.4 centimeters) in length) appeared. Water was channeled down a spillway to relieve pressure on the dam, and 70,000 downstream residents were forced to evacuate as they feared the dam s failure was imminent. It was later confirmed that the dam had not been inspected since Hurricane Maria 17

18 The graphics below show examples of flood damage and river gauge station heights during Maria. Guajataca Dam (Source: El Nuevo Día) Flooding in Cataño, Puerto Rico (Source: AFP) Selected hydrograms from Puerto Rico (Source: USGS) Hurricane Maria 18

19 Additional Information More than 30 homes were severely damaged or destroyed on the island of Culebra. Damage to the electricity grid and other infrastructure was so severe that the island is expected to remain without electricity and portable water supplies for at least a few weeks. In the aftermath of landfall, media reports showed large piles of debris and extensive vegetation damage, including numerous downed trees. The nearby island of Vieques was similarly devastated. At the event s peak, more than 9,000 inhabitants were cut off from electricity and any communication channels after extensive impacts were recorded to homes and infrastructure. Death toll: Official: 55 dead; 60 missing. Unofficial: Hundreds+ dead Economic Loss: ~USD62 billion Insured Loss: ~USD26 billion Dominican Republic Nearly 10,000 people were evacuated and all of the country s major ports were closed in advance of Maria which prompted widespread flooding in the Dominican Republic. Five fatalities were reported from the Dominican Republic, while 26,000 were displaced due to widespread flooding that was caused by Maria s torrential rainfall. Local Emergency Operations Center noted that 57 communities were cut off from the outside world, following floods and landslides. According to preliminary damage assessments, the hurricane caused damage on 14 bridges and numerous highways. At least 188 homes were destroyed and 861 more were severely damaged. In total, 8,856 homes were reported to be flooded. Nearly a million inhabitants of the country were without water supply as of September 25. At least 350,000 people were left without power throughout the country. Damage on infrastructure was preliminary estimated by local authorities at USD63 million. The agricultural sector was severely impacted. First damage estimates from banana producers were pegged at USD21 million. Death toll: 5 Economic loss: USD63 million Haiti Maria s torrential rains caused severe flooding in several locations in Haiti. According to assessments by the Ministry of Interior, three people were killed as a result of the storm s passage. Total economic loss is not expected to be significant. Death toll: 3 Economic loss: TBD Hurricane Maria 19

20 Energy Impacts Electricity In Dominica, 75 percent of the network infrastructure was estimated to be damaged. An estimated 80 to 90 percent of transformers on the islands were beyond repair. Several power generation stations reported damage due to wind, landslide or flooding. Damage on the grid and lost revenues were estimated at approximately USD67 million. It will take at least USD81 million to facilitate the restoration of the network. More than 80 percent of the island s residents remained without electricity more than five months after Maria s landfall. Additionally, at least 43 water systems were damaged in Dominica at the peak of the event. This severely limited water access, and as of February 2018, only 31 had been repaired leaving 26 percent of the country without direct water access. The electricity grids of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands were virtually decimated. Immediately after the storm, close to 100% of power supply was down on all of the main islands. It is worth noting that the blackout was prolonged and significant number of customers was still without power even months after Maria swept through the region. At the time of this writing in February 2018, hundreds of thousands continue to endure five-month long outage. Total number of power outages in USVI and Puerto Rico can be seen in the charts below. 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 0% 8-Oct 22-Oct 5-Nov 19-Nov 3-Dec 17-Dec 31-Dec 14-Jan 28-Jan St. John St. Croix St. Thomas 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000, , , , Sep 4-Oct 18-Oct 1-Nov 15-Nov 29-Nov 13-Dec 27-Dec 10-Jan 24-Jan 7-Feb 21-Feb 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Puerto Rico Hurricane Maria 20

21 Petroleum Ports Source: NOAA/NASA All major petroleum-importing ports in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands suffered prolonged closure and restrictions continued through October. Yabucoa Port with an average import of 38,000 barrels per day, which suffered direct hit by Maria, remained closed until October 1. Similarly, port in Ponce opened on October 1. The U.S. Department of Energy reported significant damage in the port of Guayanilla. By early October, the situation has stabilized as most of the petroleum ports in the region were open with only some restrictions, including the limitation of all operation to daylight time. Authorities worked to ensure the delivery of fuel for generators in critical facilities. Hurricane Maria 21

22 Transportation Impacts Airports & Airlines Both airports located in Dominica sustained damage. At Douglas Charles Airport, the terminal building was flooded and damage occurred to security, communication and navigation equipment. At Canefield Airport, the terminal building lost part of its roof and the navigation tower was severely damaged. Apart from direct damage, losses due to lost revenue are expected are expected to mount as the tourism industry declines. Hurricane Maria caused considerable damage to the island s main airport in San Juan, the busiest airport in the Caribbean. For several days, the airport was not able to operate due to damage on its infrastructure, including navigation, communications and fuel systems. Hundreds of passengers were stranded at the airport for several days in hopes to leave the island. Full operation at the airport did not fully resume until October 4, Roadways Widespread damage to roadways, bridges and adjacent structures in Dominica resulted in direct economic damage of at least USD182 million. After the event, majority of local roads were covered by large amounts of debris, trees and dozens of landslides. On many places, road infrastructure was flooded and swept away by swollen rivers, which had massive erosive potential due to large amounts of debris and deposits. At least six major bridges sustained considerable damage. Number of vehicles that were damaged or destroyed on the island was preliminary estimated between 8 and 14 percent. Infrastructure damage in Puerto Rico was heavy and widespread. According to initial assessments, there were at least 1,500 instances of damaged roadways and bridges across the island and the cost of repairs were estimated to exceed USD240 million. Railways Damaged road in Roseau, Dominica (Source: AFP) Damaged road in Toa Alta, Puerto Rico (Source: AFP) Tren Urbano, the only functional railway service in Puerto Rico, which operates in San Juan and nearby towns and serves thousands of residents, was out of service due to structural damage to several stations and to the energy infrastructure. Majority of the railway route resumed operation on December 19.No railways are located in Dominica. Hurricane Maria 22

23 Millions Millions Aon Benfield Marine Industry All major port facilities in Dominica were affected by Hurricane Maria. Buildings located in the Woodridge Bay Port, including the main office building, were damaged. Further damage occurred in Roseau Cruise Ship Berth, Portsmouth Port and Cabrits Cruise Ship Bert. Maria caused damage to San Juan, Puerto Rico s main port which led to a temporary closure for several weeks. However, the port was reopened in October 2017 and cruise ships were again able to arrive. In terms of recreational boats, the U.S. Coast Guard reported in February 2018 that it had used cranes to remove more than 750 sunken or damaged boats from the water, beaches, or mangroves. This total represented only a fraction of the assumed total number of boats impacted during the event. Tourism Industry According to an official report by the Government of Dominica, at least 666 out of 909 hotel rooms located on the island were damaged. More than a half will likely be unavailable a year post-landfall. Total direct damage to the tourism sector was preliminarily estimated at USD20 million, however revenue losses resulting from the destruction, dysfunctional infrastructure and transport services and recovery costs will amount to at least USD71 million. Monthly data provided by the Puerto Rico Tourism Company (PRTC), a governmental body in charge of tourism-related activities, suggests a dramatic decrease in number of tourists coming to the island after Maria s impact in September After a decade of steady annual growth, Puerto Rico experienced a drop by more than 15 percent of hotel registrations in comparison with the previous year thus became the year with the lowest number of registrations since The drop is even more striking when only the data for the fourth quarter are taken into account. Q was the worst fourth quarter for Puerto Rico tourism industry since 1985, considering total number of registrations, as the agency noted an almost 70-percent reduction since Number of local residents who registered in accommodation facilities in Q was the lowest since Moreover, October 2017 was the worst October since Total Registrations Total Registration (Residents) Q4 Total Registrations Q4 Total Registrations (residents) Hurricane Maria 23

24 Environmental Impacts Coastal Erosion The mainland United States was spared from a direct impact of the hurricane. Nevertheless, Maria triggered notable impacts along the coastline of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland as it undertook a sharp turn eastward near Cape Hatteras, maintaining Category 1 intensity. Large waves and storm surge generated by the storm affected large portions of the shoreline. Prior to the storm s passage, the United States Geological Survey suggested that about two thirds of beaches from North Carolina to Maryland were expected to be impacted by dune erosion and a small portion by overwash. Flora & Fauna Hurricane Maria dealt a serious blow to the environment of Dominica, notably to its forests, which are well protected and considered one of the biggest assets of the local eco-friendly tourism industry. Large swaths of forest were leveled or defoliated due to the extreme winds. The country is home to an endemic parrot called Amazona imperialis (also known as Sisserou), which is considered to be the island s symbol and is also featured on the national flag. After the storm, there were concerns that the population of the endangered species might lose part of its natural habitat and decline. All six of the United States national parks in the Caribbean were closed in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. The affected parks were Virgin Islands National Park in Saint John, Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument in Saint John, Christiansted National Historic Site in Saint Croix, Buck Island Reef National Monument in Saint Croix, Salt River Bay National Historical Park and Ecological Reserve in Saint Croix, and San Juan National Historic Site in Puerto Rico. In Puerto Rico the El Yunque National Forest, the United States only tropical rainforest, was severely damaged by Maria. Officials at the International Institute of Tropical Forestry reported that the majority of trees had been defoliated leaving much of the 28,000-acre (11,330-hectare) forest bare. The forest was home to some 240 tree species of which 23 were unique to Puerto Rico. The forest s bird population was also affected by Maria: dozens of blackbirds and pearly-eyed thrashers were known to have been killed while the Puerto Rican Parrot Recovery Program expressed concerns over the fate of the endangered Puerto Rican Parrot which is only found in Puerto Rico and is the only native parrot species in the United States. Hurricane Maria 24

25 Historical Comparison Dominica Maria was the most powerful and the costliest tropical system to ever impact the island nation of Dominica and the only Category 5 hurricane to make landfall there. However, the island faced similar destruction for the third time in the last 40 years. Hurricane David (1979) made direct hit at southern tip of Dominica as a powerful, Category 4 hurricane. It caused heavy damage on Dominica, mainly due to a serious underestimation, unpreparedness and wrong forecasts of the event that initially put the storm s track near Barbados. At least 56 people died and three-quarters of the population were left homeless and the catastrophe prompted influx of foreign aid. The whole agricultural sector, which was comprised mainly of banana plantations, was destroyed. Although Erika (2015) impacted Dominica as a weak tropical storm, torrential rainfall associated with it caused widespread flooding and landslides on the island. The devastation caused by the relentless rain, which included thousands of damaged homes, resulted in economic cost of nearly USD500 million. Maria (2017) caused losses that were estimated to reach minimally USD1.3 billion. As the agricultural sector constitutes one of the pillars of the island s export, its vulnerability to repeated extreme weather events affects the whole economy. Despite many successful economic reforms, Dominica retains a relatively low GDP per capita. Puerto Rico Hurricane Maria was the most powerful storm to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1932, when a Category 4 storm, known as the San Ciprian Hurricane, came ashore and caused extensive damage on the island. The only known Category 5 landfall, most commonly referred to as the Okeechobee Hurricane, came ashore only a few miles to the southwest of Maria s landfall location near Yabucoa port. The storm, which is also known in Puerto Rico as Huracán San Felipe II, caused widespread devastation, damaged tens of thousands of homes and left at least 374 fatalities in its wake. The only other major Hurricane to directly impact Puerto Rico in the last 100 years was 1989 Hurricane Hugo. As it brushed off the southeastern tip of the island, it caused major damage to housing, businesses and infrastructure, particularly in eastern regions. Hurricane George crossed the island in 1998 as a Category 2 storm and caused exceptional impact. Hurricane Maria 25

26 Impact Forecasting Reconnaissance Trip Members of Aon Benfield s Catastrophe Management and Impact Forecasting groups traveled to Puerto Rico for an extended damage assessment from December 4-7, The surveys included visits to San Juan and additional eastern communities such as Carolina, Luquillo, Fajardo, Ceiba, Humacao, Palmos del Mar, Gurabo, and Juncos among others. Among the most notable findings: 1) Residential homes built to proper code often escaped with minimal damage. The most common well-performing building type was of concrete construction with a bunker-style frame. However, many homes outside of San Juan were built with non-code, wood-frame construction and/or additions that suffered extensive, total loss damage. Concrete construction built to proper code (Source: Impact Forecasting) Failed add-on structure (Source: Impact Forecasting) 2) Commercial properties were also prone to wind-related damage, but the loss was more associated with roof or façade impacts. Most properties visited maintained their structural integrity despite notable loss of shingles, storefronts or outdoor signage. Storefront damage in Humacao (Source: Impact Forecasting) Storefront damage in Humacao (Source: Impact Forecasting) Hurricane Maria 26

27 3) A significant portion of observed damage to singular and multi-unit commercial structures was incurred due to water intrusion. In many instances, windows were shattered by high winds and heavy rains led to inside water accumulation. With Puerto Rico s warm and humid climate, standing water led to major formation of mold on inside walls and contents. Additional water intrusion resulted from roof damage and subsequent leakage. Water leakage from roof (Source: Impact Forecasting) Standing water resulted in mold formation (Source: Impact Forecasting) 4) The scope of infrastructure damage roads, bridges, electrical grid, solar farms, wind farms was staggering across the island. The quality of infrastructure was already poor prior to Maria s arrival, and the intensity of the storm s impacts left complete devastation. The damage will require a complete rebuild of the energy-producing grids in Puerto Rico. Example of electrical grid damage (Source: Impact Forecasting) Partial destruction to solar panel farm (Source: Impact Forecasting) 5) Even with the best construction, some roofs and façades struggled with wind speeds gusting in excess of 160 mph (260 kph) especially at elevated locations, where wind speeds are often one category higher in intensity. Spanish tile roof shingles were entirely stripped bare in some cases. Spanish tile roof shingles stripped by winds (Source: Impact Forecasting) Spanish tile roof shingles stripped by winds (Source: Impact Forecasting) Hurricane Maria 27

28 6) The biggest unknown regarding financial losses in the aftermath of Maria was the business interruption component. Many businesses from a wide breadth of sectors including retail, hospitality, agriculture, energy, manufacturing, etc. reported varying lengths of lost productivity or revenue. In the case of direct physical damage leading to business interruption, many instances involved high winds leading to roof damage or shattered windows that prompted significant water damage. This required complete indoor repair and replacement of contents. Additional damage incurred to infrastructure had secondary or tertiary effects to many sectors. Many businesses informed during the survey that operations may not fully occur until a full calendar year after Maria s landfall. Prolonged business shutdown (Source: Impact Forecasting) Broken windows led to water intrusion (Source: Impact Forecasting) 7) Beyond wind impacts, many inland areas in Puerto Rico were subject to catastrophic flash flood, riverine, and landslide damage. Given the island s mountainous terrain, a substantial volume of water cascaded down and turned small rivers and streams into raging torrents. This led to major infrastructure damage and also swept through nearby homes and businesses. Remnant debris from river overflow (Source: Impact Forecasting) Riverine & flash flood damage debris (Source: Impact Forecasting) Hurricane Maria 28

29 Impact Forecasting: Modeled Wind Result for Puerto Rico The track of Hurricane Maria through the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico was reconstructed using the preliminary best-track data from the National Hurricane Center s Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system (ATCF). The ATCF, developed by the US Naval Research Laboratory, is a computer based application designed to automate and optimize the forecasting process of tropical cyclones. The NHC and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), among other institutes, are the operational users of the ATCF. The parameters utilized in the reconstruction included the position of hurricane eye (latitude and longitude), minimum central pressure, forward speed, heading angle, and radius of maximum winds that were reported in 6-hour increments. These hurricane parameters were imported into the wind field model to calculate wind speeds. These wind speeds were next used in Impact Forecasting s ELEMENTS software program to estimate the potential insurable losses caused by the hurricane. The Impact Forecasting wind field model is a spectral-based parametric model that solves equations of motion by using the finite difference method. The wind field model has been calibrated, both spatially and temporally, to the surface winds. The wind speed footprint, as modeled by Impact Forecasting, for Hurricane Maria is presented below. This footprint has general agreements with the wind speed swath from the NHC. Source: Impact Forecasting Impact Forecasting Modeled Loss Results Based on the modeled results of Impact Forecasting s wind model, it was determined that insurable losses resulting from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico would range between USD19 and 23 billion. Please note that insurable losses does not indicate the total economic loss estimate, nor the insured loss estimate. This only includes the value of properties (homes, businesses, vehicles) that are potentially insured by the private market. It does not include additional damage to such things as infrastructure. Hurricane Maria 29

30 Financial Losses Hurricane Maria became of the costliest natural catastrophes ever recorded globally. With an aggregated economic toll estimated around USD65 billion, it currently ranks as the eighth costliest natural catastrophe, one place higher than Hurricane Irma. Insured losses, totaling to USD27 billion, place Maria on the sixth place among the costliest events for the insurance industry. It also became the fourth costliest tropical cyclone on record after Katrina (USD157 billion in 2018 US dollars), Harvey (USD100 billion) and Sandy (USD77 billion). From the insurance perspective, Maria ranks fifth after Hurricanes Katrina, Harvey, Sandy, and Andrew when adjusting on an inflation-basis. Maria caused devastating losses on several Caribbean islands. It became the costliest disaster to ever strike Puerto Rico and the strongest storm since a Category 5 storm blasted the island in 1928, in an era when total exposure was incomparable to today s extent. Maria s footprint was widespread and related to all sectors and industries, with lasting effects on the economy, which struggled to cope given multiple long-term issues and economic stagnation. Significant indirect economic loss is expected to linger as many months after landfall, many areas have yet to fully return to normal. There are local concerns that Maria may accentuate the economic crisis, which there are fears of further declines in the population. These population decreases have been occurring throughout the 21 st century. Dominica, a small island nation in the Leeward Islands, suffered from the most devastating event in its history, when Maria made landfall at its full strength as a Category 5 storm. The hurricane dealt a substantial blow to the local economy, heavily dependent on agriculture and tourism. Long-term economic and social impacts will result from the event. According to preliminary assessments, total economic loss will reach approximately USD1.4 billion or 167 percent of the GDP; in a country with less than 75,000 inhabitants. Further impacts were felt elsewhere, including the Virgin Islands archipelago, French Overseas territories in Eastern Caribbean and on Hispaniola. Hurricane Maria 30

31 Appendix A In terms of tropical cyclone development, the official Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 though tropical cyclones have been known to develop during any month. As seen in the graphics below, the most likely months for cyclogenesis are during the peak months of August, September, and October. During these months, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are climatologically the most conducive for cyclones being influenced and/or steered by a strong Atlantic ridge of high pressure and/or by the advancement of strong troughs that dig into the central and eastern United States. The caveat to cyclogenesis is, of course, the eventual track of storms that do develop. While greater frequency of storms increases the chance of a landfall, the reality is that it only takes one landfalling storm to entirely change the perception of how active a season is to the general public regardless of how many storms actually make landfall in a single season. Hurricane Maria 31