United States Air Force Space Weather
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1 Headquarters U.S. Air Force United States Air Force Space Weather Mr. Ralph Stoffler HQ USAF/A3W 14 October
2 Overview Space Weather Community AF Space Weather Observing Systems Current & Future Space-based Energetic Charge Particle Observing Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements Gauss Markov Modeling and Research Priorities Space Weather Application Space Weather Collection AF Space Weather Products and Services Sensor-to-Operator Examples Summary 2
3 Space Weather Community Space weather is a team sport! Actively engaged in global community Training Space weather course (2 weeks) at 557 Weather Wing Students from France, Italy, Netherlands, Germany working to bring in Japan and South Korea Engaging with UK, South Korea on Ops Centers stand-up Data sharing via web services national & international partners Cooperative efforts NOAA SWPC analysis and forecasting AFRL, NRL, JHU/APL modeling and data Academic community 3
4 AF Space Weather Observing Current Eielson Fairford Vandenberg Alpena Sagamore Hill San Vito Holloman Eglin Hawaii Curacao Guam Singapore Kwajalein Ascension Island Diego Garcia SOON (3) ISTO (6) RSTN (4) NEXION (9) Learmonth DMSP: F16, F17, F18, F19
5 AF Space Weather Observing Future Thule Eielson Fairford Alpena Vandenberg Holloman Eglin Hawaii Honduras Lajes Loring Sagamore Hill Puerto Rico Curacao San Vito Incirlik Kuwait Bagram Osan Al Dhafra Oman Djibouti Singapore Eareckson Misawa Okinawa Wake Island Guam Kwajalein Ascension Island Diego Garcia American Samoa SOON (3) ISTO (6) RSTN (4) NEXION (9) Planned ISTO (+5) Planned NEXION (+17) DMSP: F16, F17, F18, F19, (F20?) COSMIC-2: Low & High Inclination All AF Space-based Platforms (2021)
6 Space-based ECP Observing Energetic Charged Particles (ECP) DoD requires specification of natural environmental conditions at the satellite March 2015, SECAF mandated all AF satellites fly ECP sensor AF currently working though requirements & acquisition process to field sensor Application SpaceWOC Space Situational Awareness (SSA), data assimilation & modeling JSpOC SSA and anomaly assessment Timeline: IOC 2021 / FOC TBD 6
7 Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements Gauss Markov (GAIM-GM) Nation s only operational ionospheric forecast model IOC at the AFWA in 2006 Global electron density specification every 15 minutes 24-hour forecast produced at the top of each hour Available resolutions Global mode (current) High resolution regional mode (available) Vertical extent 1,600 km GAIM Full-Physics IOC est Spring 2016 Finer horizontal resolution Increased vertical extent 7
8 Modeling and Research Priorities Ionosphere Scintillation Total electron content (TEC) Electron density profile (EDP) Magnetosphere LEO energetic particle characterization Spacecraft charging in all orbits GAIM DMSP Solar event forecasting X-ray flares Radio bursts CMEs Research to Operations 8
9 Space Weather Application 557 th Weather Wing Space Weather Operations Center (SpaceWOC) Mission-tailored analysis, forecasts, warnings Disseminate system-impacting space weather DoD operators and decision makers United States Government (USG) Anomaly assessment support Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) C2 system executing USSTRATCOM space control mission Focal point for space force integration & employment in military ops Detect, track, and identify all artificial objects in Earth orbit Mission Focused DoD & USG Operational Support 9
10 Space Weather Collection Space-Based Environmental Monitoring Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) particles/fields/uv Emissions Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) X-ray, particles and fields Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) - particles Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) solar wind Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) CME tracking Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) evaluating for solar flare patrol Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate (COSMIC) Ionospheric specification AF Weather relies I n t e upon g r i UNCLASSIFIED t y a -network S e r v i c e of - E DoD x c e and l l e n partner c e systems 10
11 Web Mapping Services for GIS/Google Earth formats Air Force Space Weather Products & Services Space Weather Analysis and Forecast System (SWAFS) Models & derived products Hi-flyer Radiation Dosage Global SA WOXX56 KGWC SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 0802Z 20 JAN 2013 PART A. SOLAR RADIATION DOSAGE EVENT (UPDATE): A SOLAR PROTON EVENT IS IN PROGRESS. BELOW IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM RADIATION IN MILLIREMS BASED ON THE GOES SPACECRAFT PROTON MONITORS. YOU WILL RECEIVE AN UPDATE EVERY HOUR OR WHENEVER ONE OF THE CATEGORIES BELOW IS CROSSED. THE CURRENT RADIATION DOSE CALCULATION AS OF 0701Z IS 212 MREMS. CATEGORIES ARE: GREEN = LESS THAN 10 MREMS YELLOW = MREMS RED = 100 OR GREATER MREMS PART B. N/A PART C. REMARKS: ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER\ INFORMATION, CALL THE DUTY FORECASTER AT DSN , COMMERCIAL INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK. FORECASTERS: Bauman/ Otero Observed & Forecast Warnings to DoD Forces, Intelligence Community, and Other National Users 40K+ products daily Forecaster-In-The-Loop Products (UHF SATCOM Forecast) 11 11
12 Sensor-to-Operator Examples SOON Hα Forecaster analysis & sunspot classification SpaceWOC forecast space wx & impacts 20 th Space Control Sq alerted to space object tracking impacts ISTO Radio Frequency Beacon over flight signals UHF SATCOM Scintillation Map Combined Air Operations Center Theater ISR collection Uninterrupted RQ-1 SATCOM data link to CAOC DMSP SSUSI radiances Ionosphere specification fed to GAIM 3D electron density -geolocation impacts Warfighter alerted to GPS-guided munition impacts SENSOR I n t e g r i t y SPACE - S WEATHER e r v DATA i c & PRODUCTS e - E x c e l l e n c e OPERATOR 12
13 Sensor-to-Operator Examples DMSP SSI/ES3 counts/energy Ionosphere Specification (plasma density) Model GAIM Impact products GPS Error, HF illumination Infantry navigates via hand-held GPS RSTN RIMS & SRS SpaceWOC Forecaster SA DoD Radar/SATCOM RFI determination Buckley AFB space operators warned NEXION derived profiles Models GAIM assimilates obs Impact products HF illumination Naval Special Warfare RHIB C2 via HF Comm SENSOR I n t e g r i t y SPACE - S WEATHER e r v DATA i c & PRODUCTS e - E x c e l l e n c e OPERATOR 13
14 Summary Air Force committed to space weather observing now & future Team with national & international community for DoD Support Sensor-to-Operator accurate, timely, relevant impacts delivered Global Power Global Reach Air Ops Agile Combat Support Air Force weather enables Joint Warfighters to anticipate and exploit the weather...for air, ground, space, cyberspace and intel operations. AFW Mission Army Ops Global Vigilance Special Ops Space Weather 14
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