NICT SPACE WEATHER ACTIVITIES

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1 Prepared by NICT Agenda Item: 3 Discussed in Ad-Hoc Meeting on Space Weather NICT SPACE WEATHER ACTIVITIES Tsutomu Nagatsuma Space Weather and Environment Informatics Laboratory, Applied Electromagnetic Research Institute, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan This working paper provides an overview of the space weather activities in NICT. Space weather forecast in Japan is originated from forecast of radio-wave broadcasts, which provides current and future conditions of radio wave propagation for telecommunications. In 1988, we have started the space weather forecast program in Japan for future use of space environment and for mitigating space weather effect to the social infrastructure. We have been operating the space weather forecast service, and doing related research and development. In this report, we introduce the operation, research, and development of space weather forecast in NICT, Japan.

2 NICT Space Weather Activities 1 INTRODUCTION Space weather forecast in Japan is originated from forecast of radio-wave broadcasts, which provides current and future conditions of radio wave propagation for telecommunications, because the conditions of radio wave propagation is strongly controlled by the conditions of space weather. The service of Japanese radio wave forecast began in 1940 s. This service was provided from Radio Research Laboratory (currently, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, NICT). Although the radio wave has been used as a fundamental way of telecommunications, and is still used by aerospace assets, the major way of telecommunications is shifted from radio wave to wired-network. In contrast, activities of space research and development are continuing to grow in Japan based on the evolution of our nation s rocket and satellite technologies. In 1988, we have started the space weather forecast program in Japan for future use of space environment and for mitigating space weather effect to the social infrastructure. We have been operating the space weather forecast service, and doing related research and development. In this report we introduce the operation, research, and development of space weather forecast in NICT, Japan. 2 OPERATION OF SPACE WEATHER FORECAST Currently, Japanese operational space weather forecast is provided from space weather and environment informatics laboratory in NICT. NICT s space weather forecast centre belongs to the International Space Environment Service (ISES), as the Regional Warning Centre (RWC) Japan. Our operational activities of space weather forecast are supported by domestic and international cooperation, We are routinely providing forecast information of solar flare, geomagnetic activity, highenergy particles (proton event and relativistic electrons in the radiation belts), and conditions of radio wave propagation, These forecast information are based on the analysis of current conditions and trends of space weather activities from our own observation network (NICT-SWM) and from other satellite and ground-based observations from other institutes A forecaster s meeting is held from 14:30 JST (05:30UT) each day for discussing the final decision of the present day s space weather forecast. The latest data and simulation/model outputs ranging from the Sun to the Earth s upper atmosphere are consulted. The forecast information and online database of space weather monitoring have been provided via information network. Our information can be obtained from the following URLs Page 2 of 6

3 SPACE WEATHER MONITORING NETWORK (NICT-SWM) To monitor current conditions of space environment, we have been operating the space weather monitoring network (NICT-SWM) based on the domestic and

3 3 SPACE WEATHER MONITORING NETWORK (NICT-SWM) To monitor current conditions of space environment, we have been operating the space weather monitoring network (NICT-SWM) based on the domestic and international collaborations with other institutes (Figure 1). Figure 1: NICT s Space Weather Monitoring Network (NICT-SWM) (From Nagatsuma [2013]) NICT-SWM includes both ground-based observations and satellite data reception and acquisitions. The data from NICT-SWM is received in near-real time. These near-real time data are sources of prediction models. Our data is provided to other institute which is operating space weather forecast. We are also contributing to the global network of space weather observations. 3.1 Network of ground-based observations NICT s network of ground-based observations covers the broader area from the Sun to the Earth s upper atmosphere. We have constructed comprehensive ground-based networks for space weather monitoring along the Japanese meridian from the pole to the equator. We have been operating three antennas at Hiraiso Solar Radio Spectrograph (HiRAS). HiRAS can monitor the broad frequency range ( MHz) for detecting many types of solar radio burst as indicators of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), shock waves and so on. Recently, we have renewed the HiRAS and installed the single antenna at Yamagawa observatory, because the current HIRAS at Hiraiso is too old facility. New HiRAS will be operated routinely from next fiscal year. Current conditions of geomagnetic disturbances and ULF wave activities are monitored by ground-based magnetometer networks and HF radar at King Salmon, Page 3 of 6

4 Alaska. HF radar at King Salmon is operated as a part of the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN), which is a consortium of international HF radar observations. For contributing to international network of observation, we can derive two dimensional distributions of plasma convection and ULF activities. We also operate four geomagnetic field observations. We have a long history of routine ionospheric observations in Japan. Currently we have operated four domestic ionospheric observatories and one observatory at Syowa station in Antarctica. These data are provided to the public via World-Data Center for ionosphere and space weather. The South-East Asia Low-latitude Ionospheric Network (SEALION) is a unique network of observations for ionospheric disturbances in the equatorial region. To monitor the occurrence, development, propagation of plasma bubbles in the equatorial to the mid latitude region, SEALION can contribute to the monitoring and research work for plasma bubble. NICT has constructed a high-resolution ionospheric total electron content (TEC) monitoring system using a dense Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receiver network in Japan, North America, and Europe. NICT has collected all available GNSS receiver data worldwide and conducted a project to share the data and/or information among countries, especially in the Asia-Oceania region. These data are also useful for monitoring the two dimensional variations of the ionosphere. 3.2 Satellite data reception and acquisitions In NICT, we have been operating satellite data reception system for near-real time data from Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). For continuous monitoring of solar wind data from L1 point and interplanetary space, the world-wide network of data reception system on the ground is essential. We have been contributing data reception of ACE real-time beacon mode since 1997, and that of STEREO since Recently we have renewed the satellite data reception system for ACE data acquisition because of the replacement of old facilities. The new data reception system can be applied for the future real-time solar wind data from Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR). Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been operating Data Relay Test Satellite (DRTS) at GEO since The longitude of DRTS is deg. Standard Does Monitor (SDOM) for measuring high energy particles is on board DRTS. DRTS/SDOM data is provided from JAXA to NICT in near-real time for the usage of space weather monitoring and forecasting of relativistic electrons at GEO Data acquisition of Himawari/SEDA data Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) will launch Geostationary Meteorological Satellites, Himawari-8 and 9 in 2014 and 2016, respectively. In these satellites, space environment data acquisition monitor (SEDA) will be on board. The high energy particles of protons and electrons around Japanese meridian are measured by Himawari/SEDA. Specification of SEDA is shown in Table 1. Near real time SEDA data will be provided from JMA to NICT for monitoring and forecasting of space environment around geostationary orbit. NICT will process, analyse, and provide Page 4 of 6

5 SEDA data as part of space weather information to the public. Himawari/SEDA data is very important for monitoring the high-energy particle environment around Japanese meridian. Table 1: Specification of Himawari/SEDA Items Description Number of channels Protons : 8 (individual 8 sensor elements) Electrons : 8 (8 stacked plates in one elements) Energy Range Protons : 15 MeV 100 MeV Electrons : 0.2 MeV 5 MeV Time Resolution 10 sec. Field of View Protons : ± deg. Electrons : ± 78.3 deg. 4 SPACE WEATHER MODELING AND SIMULATION 4.1 Empirical modelling We have been developing several empirical models of space weather forecast, to satisfy the requirements of current users. Empirical modelling can provide practical information in near real time. Operational forecasting models for the Dst index, which is an index of geomagnetic storm activity, using neural network techniques have been developed [Watanabe et al., 2003]. Recently, NICT has developed a prediction model for relativistic electron flux at GEO using Kalman filter based on multivariate autoregressive model [Sakaguchi et al., 2013]. In the operational relativistic electron flux model, solar wind velocity, magnitude of north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz), relativistic electron flux is used for the prediction. Current status and prediction of relativistic electron flux at GEO are provided from the following web page ( 4.2 Numerical modelling To realize objective and advanced space weather forecast for operational use in the near future, development of numerical simulation code for space weather is also important. We have been developing two types of simulation code. A magnetospheric global MHD simulation code has been developed for understanding physical processes of space weather [Tanaka, 1995]. NICT has also developed a 3-D MHD simulation model of the solar surface solar wind system. Based on comparisons with observations, it is confirmed that the MHD model successfully reproduces many features of both the fine solar coronal structure and the global solar wind structure [Nakamizo et al., 2009]. With respect to ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances, modelling effects from the lower atmosphere is necessary. Therefore, NICT is developing an Earth s whole Page 5 of 6

6 atmosphere model from the troposphere to the ionosphere, called GAIA (The Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy) [Jin et al., 2011]. The GAIA model solves the ionosphere thermosphere interaction selfconsistently, including the electrodynamics. The simulation reproduces and confirms the vertical coupling processes proposed so far with respect to the formation of the averaged longitudinal structure of equatorial ionospheric anomalies. Although these numerical simulations are still far from practical use, these approaches are very important for future advanced numerical space weather forecast. 5 REFERENCES Jin, H., Y. Miyoshi, H. Fujiwara, H. Shinagawa, K. Terada, M. Ishii, Y. Otsuka, and A. Saito (2011), Vertical connection from the tropospheric activities to the ionospheric longitudinal structure simulated by a new Earth s whole atmosphere-ionosphere coupled model, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A01316, doi: /2010ja Nagatsuma, T. (2013), New Ages of Operational Space Weather Forecast in Japan, Space Weather, 11, , doi: /swe Nakamizo, A., T. Tanaka, Y. Kubo, S. Kamei, H. Shimazu, and H. Shinagawa (2009), Development of the 3-D MHD model of the solar corona-solar wind combining system, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A07109, doi: /2008ja Sakaguchi, K., Y. Miyoshi, S. Saito, T. Nagatsuma, K. Seki, and K. T.Murata (2013), Relativistic electron flux forecast at geostationary orbit using Kalman filter based onmultivariate autoregressivemodel, Space Weather, 11, doi: /2012sw Tanaka, T. (1995), Generation mechanisms for magnetosphereionosphere current systems deduced from a three-dimensional MHD simulation of the solar windmagnetosphere-ionosphere coupling processes, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 12,057, doi: /95ja Watanabe, S., E. Sagawa, K. Ohtaka, and H. Shimazu (2003), Operational models for forecasting Dst, Adv. Space Res., 31, Page 6 of 6

Recent Activities of NICT Space Weather Research and Operation

Recent Activities of NICT Space Weather Research and Operation Mamoru Ishii National Institute of Information and Communications Technology 2 2 Field of Space Weather GEO Sat. (More than 400) Satellite