Operational Impacts of Space Weather
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1 Operational Impacts of Space Weather R. Lambour, A. J. Coster, R. Clouser, L. E. Thornton, J. Sharma, and A. Cott 2001 Space Control Conference 3 April Space Control Conf. -1
2 Outline Introduction Space Weather Effects on Space-Based Systems Effects on Ground-Based systems Conclusions 2001 Space Control Conf. -2
3 Definition: Space Weather Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can affect performance and reliability of space-based and ground-based technological systems. * 2001 Space Control Conf. -3 *
4 Effects of Space Weather on Earth SOHO Solar Flare SOHO Coronal Mass Ejection Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Caused very large magnetic storm and ionospheric effects 2001 Space Control Conf. -4
5 Effects of Space Weather on Earth SOHO Solar Flare SOHO Coronal Mass Ejection Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Caused very large magnetic storm and ionospheric effects 2001 Space Control Conf. -4
6 Effects of Space Weather on Earth SOHO Solar Flare SOHO Coronal Mass Ejection Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Caused very large magnetic storm and ionospheric effects Near peak of 11 Year solar cycle Activity on Sun, magnetosphere and ionosphere will be a maximum for the next 2-3 years 2001 Space Control Conf. -4
7 Outline Introduction Space Weather Effects on Space-Based Systems Space-Based Visible sensor South Atlantic Anomaly Transient effects Long-term (?) effects Effects on Ground-Based systems Conclusions 2001 Space Control Conf. -5
8 SBV Sensor 15 cm high straylight rejection telescope 4-420x420 Lincoln Laboratory CCD 1.4 x 1.4 deg field of view per CCD Staring sensor 2001 Space Control Conf. -6
9 SBV Sensor 15 cm high straylight rejection telescope 4-420x420 Lincoln Laboratory CCD 1.4 x 1.4 deg field of view per CCD Staring sensor Target and star detection Clutter rejection Data compression 2001 Space Control Conf. -6
10 Space Environment Effects on SBV 2001 Space Control Conf. -7
11 South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) Flux contours of E > 50 MeV Protons at 500 km SAA Energetic particle enhancement at low altitudes due to offset of magnetic field 2001 Space Control Conf. -8
12 SAA Effects on SBV 2001 Space Control Conf. -9 Protons with energy > 10 MeV affect SBV focal plane and inhibit ability to observe valid target streaks
13 Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 Solar Proton Event Solar Proton Arrival NOAA Geosynchronous Space Environment Summary 2001 Space Control Conf. -10
14 Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 Solar Proton Event Valid Streaks per Frameset Latitude < 60 Latitude > 60 Flare Storm Day of Year 2000 Solar flare occurred at end of pinch point CONOPS testing One DCE produced no data (day 197) Decrease in valid streaks over polar regions seen Decrease not attributable to anomalies 2001 Space Control Conf. -11
15 Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 Solar Proton Event False Streaks per Frameset Latitude > 60 Latitude < 60 Flare Storm False streaks per frameset increased significantly after solar flare Day of Year Space Control Conf. -12
16 Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 Solar Proton Event False Streaks per Frameset Latitude > 60 Latitude < 60 Flare Storm False streaks per frameset increased significantly after solar flare Day of Year 2000 Influx of solar protons over poles degraded SBV performance 2001 Space Control Conf. -12
17 Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects SAA 2001 Space Control Conf. -13
18 Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects SAA 2001 Space Control Conf. -13
19 Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects SAA Area with reduced detections south of SAA noticed in Effect investigated by looking geographic distribution of valid and false streaks 2001 Space Control Conf. -13
20 Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects SAA Region of interest 2001 Space Control Conf. -14
21 Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects SAA Region of interest Area of degraded performance persists into Space Control Conf. -14
22 Energetic Particle Source Regions > 6900 kev proton data from NOAA POES MEPED sensor **SEM-2 system 2001 Space Control Conf detector SAA 90 -detector Trapped Protons NOAA baseline plots show increase in trapped outer-zone protons south of SAA in recent years Consistent with location of degraded SBV performance
23 Outline Introduction Space Weather Effects on Space-Based systems Effects on Ground-Based systems Range Delay Scintillation July th storm Conclusions 2001 Space Control Conf. -16
24 2 m Space Control Conf. -17
25 Illustration of Atmospheric Effects Range Delay n ionosphere 1 AN f e 2 R ion ( meters) = 2 f R 0 N dr e 2001 Space Control Conf. -18
26 Illustration of Atmospheric Effects Range Delay n ionosphere 1 AN f e 2 R ion ( meters) = 2 f 0 R N dr e Range Delay S-Band L-Band UHF VHF Elev Ionosphere 6 m 32 m 280 m 2 km < Space Control Conf. -18
27 GRIMS: GPS Real-Time Ionospheric Monitoring System built the first real-time ionospheric monitoring system based on GPS (1991). Purpose: Part of a radar calibration system. Operational systems online at FPS-85, ALTAIR, and Millstone satellite tracking radars. TEC as Function of Azimuth and Elevation around Millstone Hill Radar, MA 2001 Space Control Conf. -19
28 Scintillation Scintillation can cause additional errors. For GPS, the primary issue is loss of lock. For radars, the primary issue is degradation of coherent integration capabilities Space Control Conf. -20
29 ALTAIR VHF Observations on CAL Sphere 2826: Normal Conditions versus Severe Scintillation ALTAIR VHF Tracks Calibration Sphere m diameter, 850 km circular orbit Power spectral density (log) -10 Spectrum dbnormal Frequency (Hz) RCS (dbsm) RCS (dbsm) Negligible scintillation G M T S E C O N D S Time of day (sec GMT) Power spectral density (Log) -10 Spectrum in Severe Scintillation 2001 Space Control Conf Frequency (Hz) RCS (dbsm) Moderate scintillation Intense scintillation Cable -40 wrap Time of day (sec GMT)
30 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Strikes Earth Solar Flare of 14 July Space Control Conf. -22
31 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Strikes Earth Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Est. Planetary Kp (3 Hr.) Begin: 2000 Jul UT es 2001 Space Control Conf. -22 NOAA/SEC Boulder, CO USA
32 TEC Disturbances on 15 July 2000 TEC Units POR4 WES2 NRC1 MHR3 EGL UTC Time (Hours) starting at day Space Control Conf. -23
33 TEC Disturbances on 15 July 2000 TEC Units POR4 WES2 NRC1 MHR3 EGL UTC Time (Hours) starting at day Space Control Conf. -23
34 GPS Loss of Lock at Ottawa and Millstone Hill GPS Loss of Lock at Ottawa Local Westward Ion Velocity at Millstone Hill V West (m/s) No. of Satellites TEC units units Zenith TEC Over Millstone Hill Loss of Lock on GPS L2 signal 2001 Space Control Conf Day of 16 Month D a y o f M o n t h
35 Range Residuals on Calibration Sphere 7646 FPS-85 Florida Range Residuals (m) Range Residuals (m) Typical Residuals July 15 th storm effects Space Control Conf. -25 Day of Year (2000)
36 Summary Space-Based Visible sensor sensitive to proton radiation environment (e.g., SAA) Transient effects (solar proton events) can degrade SBV performance Long-term changes in the radiation environment may also affect performance of space-based sensors Ground-based radar measurements: ionosphere introduces errors Range Delay and Angle Errors Scintillation In general, geomagnetic storms make these errors larger and harder to model Understanding of space environment facilitates future spacebased and ground-based systems 2001 Space Control Conf. -26
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