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1 = = = = = 6 = 4!"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 6 No. 4 July 2010!" (2010) fm``=^n_!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()* == NIO N N=!"#$%&'()#$!*+,-./!01!"#$%&'=NMMMOVO=!"#$%"& =NMMMQV =!"#$%&'CMIP3 20!"#$%20C3M A1B!"#$!"#!21! "#$%&'()*!"A1B!!"#$%& J mm/d!" J mm/d!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"!"#$%&'()*+! !"#!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./%&'()*+0 A1B!!"#$%!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 20C3M!"#$!!"#$!"#!!"P467 ==!"#A = ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+IPCC!"#$!"#$%WCRP!"#$%CMIP3!"#$%!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'() x1z IPCC!"#$TAR7!"#$% A !"! x2z!""#$%&'()* CMIP3!"#Zhou x3z!"!"#$%&'()*+ x4z!!"#$%%&'()*+ x5z!"#$%&'()*+, ====!"#$!"#$%&'()!!"#$%&'()*+,!-./01! CO 2!" CMIP3 20!"#$%!&'()*+ 25 x6j7z!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!! x8z!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()!"#$co 2!! "!" CMIP3 IPCC!"#$AR4 20!"#$! = !"#$%&'2007BAC29B03X=!"#$%&' X=!"!!GYHY X=!"#$%&'ACCC 1984!"#!"#$%&'()*+,- libo@mail.iap.ac.cn 270

2 4!IPCC A1B!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()* C3M A1B!"#$%&'()* 21! "#$%&'()!"#!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+$%,-./01!!!"#$%&' ( 1!"#$%&'( )*+,-./"0!"#$%&'()* O==!"#$%&' N==!" ====!" 20C3M A1B!!"#$%&' 25 24!"# 13! 18!"#!"#$ 23!"# projects/cmip/index.php20c3m!"#$!"#$%& 20!"#$% Zhou x3z!"#$%&'()*+,-./!" #$%&'()* x9z!"#$%&'()*+,-./0a1b!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!"#$%&'20c3m!"#$!"#$%&'2100!"#$%!"#$ 2200 ====!"#$%&'()1) 20C3M!!"850 hpa!"!" ) A1B!"#$%&'! 850 hpa!"#$%&'( 21!"# !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 GPCPglobal precipitation climatology project!"#$ x10z ====!"!"#S x!"#!"#$%!"#$%&' n S x = Σ (x i J J x) 2 (1) 1 n i=1 x i!"#$%&'()*x J!"!"#$n!"#$%&' ====!"#$%&'()*+(,-!"#$%&'()*+,-.$%/01 1!"#$%&!'()*+!"!"!"#$% OKN== ====!"#$%&'()*+,-)./0!!"#$%&'(Gao x11j12z CO 2!!"#$%&'!"# x13z Xu x14z B2!"#$!"#$%&'(!"#$%& A1B 21! "#$%&'()*!"#$ ==== A1B!"#$ ! 20C3M!" !"#$%& A1B!"#$%&'(1(a)!"#$%&'()*+",!"#!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!" 1d J mm/d!"#$%&'(#)*+!"#$!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& 1g!"# J mm/d!"#$%&'$(%!"#$%!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./%&012!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!"# ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& x3z!"#$%&!"#$%&!'()*+, 1 (b, e, h)!"#$%&'!"#$%&'( 1e!"#$!"!"#$%&'()*+, 1 (c, f, i)!"#$%&'()*+,%-!"!"#$%&"'%()!"!"#$!%!"#$ 271

3 = = = = = 272!"#$% = 2010 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f)! (g) (h) (i)! J0.1 J ! /(mm/d) /(mm/d) 1!"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$!"#$%&' Fig. 1 Multi-model projected annual (upper panels), summer (middle panels) and winter (bottom panels) mean rainfall changes (the left column; units: mm/d); the model spreads (the central column; units: mm/d) and the ratio of the absolute value of rainfall change to the model spread (the right column) in China!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%&'()*+!,-&./0!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$!"#$%&'!"!"#$%!"#$%&'(!"!"#$%&'!"#$% OKO==! ====!"#$%!IPCC TAR!!A2!"#$%!"#$%&!"#$%& x1z!a1b!"# ! 20C3M !"#$%&'( A1B!"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%&' (a)!"#$%&'()* +%,-.!"!"#$%&'()* x 15z 2003!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$!"#$%&'()*!(2d, 2g!"#$%&'!(!"#$%&'()*+, 272

4 4!IPCC A1B!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()* 273 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f)! (g) (h) (i)! ! / / 2!"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%&'()*+,&-./!!"#$%&' Fig. 2 Multi-model projected annual (upper panels), summer (middle panels) and winter (bottom panels) mean surface air temperature changes (the left column; units: ), the model spreads (the central column; units: ) and the ratio of the absolute value of surface air temperature change to the model spread ( the right column) in China ==== 2 (b, e, h)!"#$%& '()*+!"#$%&!"#$%!"!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+,-. 2 (c, f, if! "#$%&'()*!+,-./0 2!"#$!"#$!"#$!"#$%&1!"!"#$%!&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&CMIP3!"#$%&'!"#$ P==^N_!"#$%&'()*+,- ====3 (a, b)!a1b!"#$"%& 850 hpa!"!105120e!"#$%!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'() 1 (d)! 850 hpa!"#$%&'()*+,+!!"!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"#$ 2 (g)!ding x16z!!"#$%&' 273

5 = = = = = 274!"#$% = 2010 (a)! (b)! E 120E 150E 90E 120E 150E 3!"#$ A1B!"#$ (a)!" (b) 850 hpa!!m/sf Fig. 3 Summer (a) and winter (b) mean 850 hpa wind changes projected by the multi-model ensemble simulations under the SRES A1B scenario (expressed by the difference of the 2040J2059 mean in the A1B scenario experiments minus the 1990J1999 mean in 20C3M; units: m/s)!"#$%&'(!"#!a1b!"#$%&'()*+ ====!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%& 3!!"#$%!"#$%&'(3!8!"#!"#$!"#$%&'() 4 (a) !"#$ E!"#$%&'()R!!"#$ 7 8!"44N!!"#$ ====4 (b)20c3m!"#$%&'!"!"#$%&'()*+,-. (a) (b) 20C3M (c) A1B (d) (A1BJ20C3M) GPCP !"20C3M F A1B!"# ! E!"#$%&'(!mm/dF A1B 20C3M! Fig. 4 Time-latitude cross sections of the monthly precipitation (units: mm/d) averaged between 110E and 125E in (a) the observation (GPCP, averaged from 1990 to 1999), (b) 20C3M (averaged from 1990 to 1999), and (c) A1B scenario experiment (averaged from 2040 to 2059), and (d) precipitation differences (units: mm/d) between the A1B scenario experiment and 20C3M 274

6 4! IPCC A1B!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()* 275!"!"#$56!"#$ 7 8!"#$!"#$%&A1B 4c !!"#!"#$% 20C3M! 8 9!"# 20C3M!"!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./01 4 (d) A1B 20C3M!"#$%!"A1B!!"#$%&!"# 3!"#$% 2 3!"#$%&30!"#$!46!"#$%&'()*+ 30!"#$%&'8!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& Q==! (1) A1B!21!"#$%&'( J mm/d!"#$%&'!!"#!"#$%&j mm/d!"# $%&'()*+,!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#!"#$%&'( (2) A1B!21!"#$%&'()!"#$%!"1.22.8!!"!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*+, (3) A1B!21!"#$%&'()!"#$%& (4) 20C3M!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$A1B!21!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-20!"#$!"#$%&'3!!"#!"#$%!"30!"!"#$!" 8!!"#$%& ====!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,)-.!!"#$%&'()* x17z!"#$%&'()*+,-./%01"!" Gao x18z!"#!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*+,!"#!"#$!"#$%&'()*+!"! [1],,. SRES A2!"#$%&'()*+!"#$ [J].!"#, 2004, 47 (5): 776J784 [2].!"#$%& : =[M]. :!", 2005: 52J53, 82J84 [3] Zhou T, Yu R. Twentieth century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models [J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19 (22): 5843J5858 [4],,.!"#$ 21!"#$%&' [J].!"#, 2004, 13 (1): 25J31 [5],,,. 7 IPCC AR4!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-& [J].!, 2009, 33 (1): 109J120 [6] Stephens G L. Cloud feedbacks in the climate system: a critical review [J]. J Climate, 2005, 18 (2): 237J273 [7] Randall D A, Wood R A. Climate models and their evaluation [J]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007: 589J662 [8],,,.!"#$%&'()*+ [J].!, 2008, 32 (4): 906J922 [9],,. IPCC AR4!"#$%&'()* [J].!"#$%, 2007, 3 (5): 287J292 [10] Adler R F, Huffman G J, Chang A, et al. The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979Jpresent) [J]. J Hydrometeor, 2003, 4 (6): 1147J1167 [11] Gao X, Zhao Z. Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia [J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2002, 19 (5): 927J 942 [12] Gao X, Zhao Z, Ding Y, et al. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model [J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, 18 (6): 1225J1230 [13],,,. 21!"#$%&'()*=[J].!"#$%, 2005, 1 (2): 80J83 [14] Xu Y, Zhang Y, Lin E, et al. Analyses on the climate change responses over China under the SRES B2 scenario using the PRECIS [J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2006, 51 (18): 2260J2267 [15],,,.!"#$%&'()*+,$! II :!"#$%&'( [J].!, 2003, 61 (1): 29J38 [16] Ding Y, Ren G, Zhao Z, et al. Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: an overview of recent progress [J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2007, 24 (6): 954J

7 = = = = =!"#$% 276 = 2010 [17],,,.!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$=[J].!, 2006, 30 (2): 185J192 [18] Gao X J, Shi Y, Song R Y, et al. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM [J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2008, 100: 73J86 Projected Climate Change over China Under SRES A1B Scenario: Multi-model Ensemble and Uncertainties Li Bo 1, 2, Zhou Tianjun 1 (1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China; 2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China) Abstract: Climate change over China in the middle 21st century is investigated based on the multi-model datasets of 20C3M and the SRES A1B scenario projection provided by CMIP3. The analysis shows that the precipitation will increase in most parts of China; the range of rainfall change is between J0.1 and 1.1 mm/d in summer, and between J0.2 and 0.2 mm/d in winter. Unfortunately, our analysis has revealed a large spread among the 23 models in future precipitation change projection. Uncertainties in the surface air temperature (TAS) change projection are far less than those in precipitation. The projected change range of TAS, in both summer and winter, is from 1.2 to 2.8, generally increasing with latitude. Projected change of East Asian monsoon under the SRES A1B scenario exhibits a strengthened trend in summer but a slightly weakened trend in winter; and the withdrawal of the East Asian summer monsoon rain-belt from its north-most position is about one month later than that in 20C3M. Key words: climate change projection; multi-model ensemble; uncertainty!" ==== ! GKSS!"#$!"#$Hans von Storch!"#3!!"#$%#&'()*+,-./0!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*#+,-. Hans von Storch!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!! "#$%&'()*+,-./012!"!"#$%&'()*+,- ==== Monika Barcikowska!!"#$!"#$%&'()*! CMAJMA JTWCIBTrACS!"#$%&$'(!"!"#$%&'()CCLM!"#$%!"!"#$%&'()*+,!" ====!"Hans von Storch!"#$%&'(!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()! "#$== 276