Development of monitoring and GIS systems to assess distribution and diffusion of D. suzukii

Transcription

1 Development of monitoring and GIS systems to assess distribution and diffusion of D. suzukii Alessandro Cini, UPMC Paris Gianfranco Anfora, FEM, Markus Netelerm FEM, Alberto Grassi, FEM AlessioPapini, Univ. Firenze Ugo Santosuosso, Univ. Firenze Advances and prospects on monitoring and modelingof Drosophila suzukii in Europe Wädenswil, Switzerland March 2013 COST-Action FA 1104 Meeting WG3 Crop Protection

2 Talk overview What s going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -Alberto Grassi, Gianfranco Anfora(FEM, Trento) alberto.grassi@fmach.it -MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) -Markus Neteler, Duccio Rocchini, Gianfranco Anfora(FEM, Trento) markus.neteler@fmach.it Where did the pest arrive and spread? -TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION -Cini Alessandro, Alessio Papini, Ugo Santuososso(Univ. of Florence) cini.ales@gmail.com

3 MONITORING Apple vinegar # ADULTS / TRAP / WEEK Seasonal dynamics of D. suzukii captures in Trentino APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. 2012: 77 TRAPS ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP DEC.

4 MONITORING 2012: fruits analysed: 3780 were infected (10%-16% in 2011) Dynamics of the impact on different hosts / camp.>50% inf. 2012/camp.>50% inf. 0 may june july may june july august september october june july august september october june july august september june july august september october % infested samples CHERRIES STRAWBERRIES RASPBERRIES BLUEBERRIES BLACKBERRIES

5 MONITORING Why a reduced population growth in 2012? a a- PREVENTION AND CONTROL PROCEDURES b- CLIMATE Mass trapping(about traps) Sanitation procedures Better tuned used of chemicals b Mean daily temp. ( C) San Michele Winter Winter-Spring Summer

6 MONITORING CLIMATE winter - Lower Temperatures - Fewer precipitations A more difficult winter for flies? Mean daily temp. ( C) San Michele Total Rain (mm) 2 Dec/ 20 March , ,2 Possible increase in mortality of OVERWINTERING individuals High mortality of spontaneous blueberry plants in the wild (blueberry is a summer host of SWD)

7 MONITORING CLIMATE Winter/Spring.1 1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) accumulated degree day 25 March: 260DD (First activity of OW females) 0 gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov

8 MONITORING CLIMATE Winter/Spring.1 1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering site and exit the diapause. Confirmation of movements in the lowlands Week # Date Catches 9 27/2-4/ / /3-1/ / accumulated degree day 25 March: 260DD (First activity of OW females) gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov

9 MONITORING CLIMATE Winter/Spring.2 1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of Februaryand duringmarch (the warmestmarch since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day(DD) A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering site and exit the diapause accumulated degree day 25 March: 260DD (First activity of OW females) 2) Rapiddropoftemp. slow down ofdd accumulation Interference with already active individuals? Relevant decrease in cherries prodution(both cultivatedand spontaneous) ca60%. Effects on first generations development? 0 gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov

10 MONITORING CLIMATE- Summer - Stasis in population growth: a critical period for SWD? - Increase in average temperatures -Highermaxtemp. in Reduced precipitations S. MICHELE (205 m) PERGINE (475 m) YEAR C WEEK C WEEK

11 MONITORING Why a reduced population growth in 2012? Mean daily temp. ( C) San Michele Colder & drier OW Winter Winter-Spring Precocious activation followed by unusual late cold climate OW / First generations Summer Higher max Temp. Summer matings

12 # ADULST / TRAP / WEEK MONITORING «DROSKIDRINK» in RED BOTTLES: A HIGH-PERFORMANCE TRAP APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DROSKIDRINK APPLE VINEGAR 55 TRAPS ADULTS CAUGHT 1129 ADULTS/TRAP 77 TRAPS ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP DEC.

13 Talk overview What s going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino)

14 MODELING MODIS satellite sensor derived LST maps microclimatic characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated meteorological station data. Reconstructed daily land surface temperature (LST) data from satellites have been successfully used to predict areas of short term invasion of the invasive species [e.g. tiger mosquito, Neteler et al., 2011; Roiz et al., 2011) Land Surface Temperature (LST) maps allow temperature-based indicators to be derived in a GIS framework. We coupled information from DD models (Damus 2009, Coop 2010) with Modis derived LSt map with a GIS approach. To build predictive model with high resolution at the local geographic scale - First egg laying; first emergence

15 MODELING FIRST EGG LAYING BY FEMALES 2011 MARKUS NETELER Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map MARKUS NETELER, DUCCIO ROCCHINI

16 MODELING FIRST ADULTS EMERGENCE 2011 MARKUS NETELER Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map MARKUS NETELER, DUCCIO ROCCHINI

17 MODELING 2012 MARKUS NETELER MARKUS NETELER, DUCCIO ROCCHINI

18 MODELING Good overall fit with field data from MARKUS NETELER MARKUS NETELER, DUCCIO ROCCHINI

19 Talk overview What s going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -MODELLING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) Where did the pest arrive and spread? -TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION

20 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Tracking the origin of introduction in Europe -Understanding the introduction pathways -preventing new/recurrent colonization Simultaneous reports from Italy and Spain Calabria et al Ciniet al. 2012

21 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Geographic profiling: a new technique to identify the probable spreading center The Geographic Profiling function generates a surface where each pixel has a different priority score indicating the optimal search pattern for the sources of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012). Gp outperforms traditional techniques to find source population of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012).

22 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Geoprofiling approach Parameters: from Stevenson et al Python program Geoprof1_3.py Data: C. Baroffio, A. Escudero+ published reports and papers (e.g. Calabria et al., 2012, Suss & Costanzi 2011 ) Spatial resolution: Heterogeneity in reports not possible to use GPS data standardized using a 30X30 km grid. One point per cell. More than 70 locations ( ) and more than 100 ( ) Temporal resolution: we used presence data for years from 2008 to 2010 and 2008 to Before 2010 too few data to produced reliable results, after 2012 too much data: high monitoring campaign in some but not all region. The early post invasion period is crucial.

23 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Only those countries where SWD is reported. e.g. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, India...

24 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN FRUIT TRADE FROM EAST ASIA TO EUROPE: import of SWD host fresh fruits 0809 Apricots, cherries, peaches, nectarines, plums & sloes, fresh grapes, fresh tons france spain italy tons france spain italy Fruits, fresh nes tons france spain italy

25 Thanks for your attention