JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook 2017 Crop monitoring European neighbourhood

Transcription

1 MARS Bulletin global outlook r JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook 2017 Crop monitoring European neighbourhood Russia April 2017 Positive start to the season after winter dormancy The sowing campaign of winter cereals last autumn was difficult due to a rain deficit and low seasonal temperatures. The wintering was successful in spite of a cold winter. Mild temperatures in early spring and an adequate water supply greatly improved the winter crop conditions so far. In general, autumn sowing activities progressed well, but early growth was delayed and crops started the dormancy period underdeveloped. Winter cereals gained appropriate cold tolerance, and a thick snow cover provided adequate protection against severe frosts. Therefore, only moderate frost-kill damages of winter wheat are expected in the very southern areas of Russia, but winter barley could be more affected. Weather conditions became beneficial for winter-wheat development since late February, as above-average temperatures facilitated crop recovery after the cold winter, leading to accelerated crop development. Mild temperatures allowed for the early or timely start of the spring sowing campaign, which progressed well until the arrival of a cold spell mid-april. Table of contents: 1. Agro-meteorological overview 2. Winter crop conditions 3. Atlas Covers the period from 1 September 2016 until 20 April

2 1. Agro-meteorological overview October and November were colder and drier than usual. A moderate negative thermal anomaly characterised the period from December to mid-february. Temperatures typically exceeded the average since the last dekad of February, accelerating the development of the crops that had been delayed due to a difficult autumn sowing campaign. Considering the review period as a whole (1 September 20 April), total precipitation was average or slightly below. Thermal conditions In September, near-average thermal conditions characterised Russia. The first dekad of October was warmer than usual by 2-6 C in southern regions, but there was a perceptible decrease in daily temperatures from the second dekad of October onwards, and this cold spell lasted until the end of the month. Daily temperatures fluctuated by 2-5 C below the long-term average in the southern half of Russia. In November, moderately colder-than-seasonal conditions characterised the southern regions and the Chernozem Belt. Considering the October and November period, the active temperature sum (Tbase=0 C) typically presents a deficit of GDD (but locally up to 150 GDD), indicating delayed emergence and slow early crop development. A cold spell prevailed in most of European Russia from 1 to 20 December, with negative thermal anomalies of between -3 and -7 C. Eastern regions were particularly cold. The second cold wave occurred from 21 January until 10 February, with temperature anomalies of between -5 C and -2 C compared to the long-term average. On the coldest days, daily minimum temperatures ranged from -18 C to -25 C or even lower. A perceptible warming started in mid-february. The last dekads of February and March were dominated by very mild weather conditions, with daily mean temperatures exceeding the long-term average by 3-6 C. This period ranks among the warmest of the past 42 years. On the warmest days in March, daily maximum temperatures exceeded C throughout the southwestern part of the country. In the first half of April, the daily temperatures have so far fluctuated around the average; only the south-eastern part of the Near Volga Okrug has been moderately colder than usual. Around 20 April, an arctic cold-air intrusion accompanied by snowfall reached the Central and Near Volga Okrugs, resulting in severe frost events. The minimum temperatures decreased down to -6 or even -8C, therefore local frost damages could have occurred in the de-hardened winter wheat stands, mainly in the Chernozem Belt. Precipitation In the first half of September, wide areas of the Southern and North Caucasian Okrugs received no precipitation, while moderate rainfall (10-30 mm) was recorded in the territory along the western border. Only the Near Volga Okrug enjoyed abundant (30-80 mm) rainfall. In mid- September, the precipitation tendency increased in the southern half of Russia, and rain totals reached mm in the second half of the month. Last October was drier than seasonal in most of Russia, and only areas along the western and southern borders received near- or slightly above-average precipitation. In November, the precipitation totals remained at or below average levels in the south, since only mm were measured in the North Caucasian and Southern Okrugs (except in the wetter Krasnodarskiy Kray). Concurrently, the Central and Near Volga Okrug enjoyed % more precipitation than the climatological norm for November. Considering the whole winter period (1 December 28 February), precipitation reached average levels or remained just slightly below the average in the western and southern territories, while the eastern regions proved to be significantly wetter than usual in a wide belt along the western side of Urals, with a precipitation surplus of mm. Since 1 March, only mm of rainfall were recorded in the southern half of Russia, whereas the agriculturally less important northern areas received abundant (typically mm) precipitation. The first significant snowfall events arrived in southern 2

3 regions of Russia in early November, but a deep (>15 cm) and persistent snow cover only formed in early or mid- December in the Central and Near Volga Okrugs, and in the Volgogradskaya Oblast. In other main regions of winter wheat production (Krasnodarskiy and Stavropolskiy Krays and Rostovskaya Oblasts), the snow cover was much shallower (5-10 cm) and less persistent. The snow cover was deepest in February (30-60 cm) in the northern and (particularly) eastern regions, although the thickness and extension of the snow blanket showed significant spatial and temporal variability. The snow cover provided adequate protection for the winter wheat stands against the negative impact of severe winter frost-kill events, except in some areas with no or thin snow cover close to the Caucasus Mountains (e.g. the Krasnodarskiy and Stavropolskiy Krays). Winter barley, which is more sensitive to frosts, could be more affected by frost-kill damages. 2. Winter crop conditions The freshly sown crops faced difficult late-autumn conditions, as the emergence and early development was delayed by drier- and colder-than-usual weather conditions. During winter, soft wheat stands were mostly protected by deep snow cover, which limited frost-kill damages. Wintering was difficult, but is considered to have been positive for the underdeveloped plants, although the crops showed delayed development and below-average biomass accumulation in early spring. The situation is improving thanks to above-average temperatures and adequate water supply, guaranteeing a good start to the season. Below-average rainfall persisted from late August until mid-september in the southern half of Russia, allowing for the good progress of winter wheat sowing activities. Abundant precipitation in the second half of September hampered sowing activities in southern Russia, especially in the Volgogradskaya, Rostovskaya, Stavropolskiy and Krasnodarskiy regions, but some areas of the Central and Near Volga Okrugs were also affected. As from the first dekad of October, the topsoil conditions became drier in the main wheat-producing regions, allowing for the 3

4 completion of sowing activities, but locally constraining the early development of winter crops. In addition, the mild weather of September and the first dekad of October was abruptly followed by colder-than-usual conditions in most of European Russia. During this cold spell, temperatures remained significantly below average (by 2-5 C), delaying the sprouting and emergence, and hampering the strengthening of seedlings before the winter dormancy period. The poorly developed winter crops were more vulnerable to the harsh and freezing weather conditions during winter. A mild late winter and early spring helped the winter wheat to recover after the winter dormancy period, and accelerated leaf-area expansion in the main producing Southern and North Caucasian Okrugs. The warmer-than-usual weather conditions of March led to an early and accelerated melting of the snow cover and facilitated the re-growth of winter crops in the southern half of the Central Okrug and south-western regions (e.g. the Saratovskaya Oblast). Crop development is normal or slightly advanced. Biomass accumulation is moderately greater than seasonal. In the northern regions and most of Near Volga Okrug, spring was delayed due to the late melting of snow and below-average temperatures. Winter crops are still underdeveloped. Analysis of remote-sensing images confirms an aboveaverage canopy expansion for the majority of southwestern Russia. Areas along the Caucasus Mountains (much of the Krasnodarskiy and Stavropolskiy Krays) are lagging behind, most likely due to a delayed early development of the seedlings during last autumn, and partially as a consequence of frost-kill damages incurred this winter. Several spots of the Rostovskaya Oblast, Kalmykiya Republic and the western regions of the Chernozem Belt (e.g. the Kurskaya and Belgorodskaya Oblasts) also present lower-than-usual biomass because of retarded development and growth problems related to difficult wintering conditions. The warmer- and drier-than-average weather allowed for a timely (or even early) start to, and adequate progress of, the spring-sowing campaign in the North Caucasian and Southern Okrugs, and in the southern part of the Central Okrug. In the main spring-cereal cultivation regions of Asian Russia (Siberian and Ural Okrugs) and in eastern and northern regions of European Russia, the sowing campaign is starting right now or even later due to the late melting of snows and cold soil temperatures. 4

5 3. Atlas 5

6 6

7 7

8 The current JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring European Neighbourhood is a JRC - EC publication from AGRI4CAST (JRC D5 Unit Directorate of Sustainable Resources) MARS Bulletins are available from Legal Notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. Analysis and reports A. Bussay, L. Panarello Reporting support G. Mulhern Edition B. Baruth Data production AGRI4CAST JRC D5 Unit, ALTERRA (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE) and CMCC (IT) Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle. Contact JRC D5 / AGRI4CAST info-agri4cast@jrc.ec.europa.eu MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources 8