Weekly Newsletter. January 04, 2017

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Aron Lewis
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Rainfall over the New Year s weekend was less than anticipated, and forecasts remain dry over the next week, but then rain comes back in the picture.

1 Michigan Agricultural Commodities Weekly Newsletter January 04, 2017 Market Commentary by: Chris Betz Soybeans are fresh off four month lows set last week. The downward slide over the course of December has turned sideways to begin Argentina has turned drier again, which has lent support. Rainfall over the New Year s weekend was less than anticipated, and forecasts remain dry over the next week, but then rain comes back in the picture. Conditions in Brazil remain favorable in general, with some lingering dryness concerns in the South. Bulls will need this to change further into the South American growing season if beans are to return to pre-harvest time values. U.S. exports continue to struggle to lend support to the soy complex. The export sales report, normally released on Thursdays, is delayed until tomorrow due to the Holiday, but don t expect any surprises here as last week s sales will have been modest at best for all three as we closed out The dollar has been in a lower trend since the peak of the Trump boom last January, which will be supportive of U.S. commodities. The USD has been sideways this week, but could test the three year low set in September soon. Wheat has been supported by cold dry conditions in the U.S. plains. Poor snow cover in Kansas and Colorado has left concern for winterkill. Chicago wheat has made its way to month highs and is trading there Thursday. An intermediate downtrend had been in place since late September, but recent gains broke that trend, and could be signaling at least a sideways trend. Planted acres will continue to be a discussion point with low acres expected again for Next Friday s USDA report will be watched closely for this point. For now, deteriorating U.S. conditions are the driving force behind gains. Big stocks worldwide will still limit potential gains with Russian FOB offers still dominating export business. Lackluster corn trade has traced the 20 and 40 day moving averages most of the week. Little fresh news has left corn just off contract lows set in December. Brazil conditions are favorable as mentioned above, and U.S. stocks are burdensomely large after a better than anticipated harvest. Ethanol margins are still under pressure, but will have feel a little relief from recovering ethanol futures. Natural gas has been supported by the cold snap, and crude is climbing to new highs with tensions in the Middle East. Ethanol production for last week drew back to million barrels per day from million the week prior. Stocks also increased 25 million gallons. Uninspired trade will likely continue into next week. The next USDA WASDE report, due out on Friday, Jan 12th, could provide the next shakeup. What will the funds do? They ve been somewhat stagnant of late, maintaining an over 150k and 230k contract net short in wheat and corn respectively, as well as a more neutral stance on soybeans, around 15k contracts net short. The January report can pack a punch, and big algo traders could need to adjust causing a spark. More to come next week

However, after weeks of negativity in the corn market, a glimmer of hope seems to be appearing.

2 Technical Thoughts By: Ken Lake March corn once again traded 354 this week matching last week s high and is currently trading lower at around 352. Momentum indicators on daily charts are overbought and one should expect some additional weakness. Farmers with cash flow needs in JFM should sell this rally. However, after weeks of negativity in the corn market, a glimmer of hope seems to be appearing. The six day run of higher closes that we experienced recently from the 346 low indicates that a seasonal low was scored on 12/15 at 346. Momentum indicators on intraday charts are not as overbought as they are on daily charts and may be giving day traders a buy signal. We actually have a bullish cross of short term moving averages at 352 with strong support at 350. Long term support will be 346. December corn analyses similar to March corn. A low of 379 was scored on 12/15, which will be long term support. Intraday charts show a bullish cross at 383 which matches the 20 day moving average on the daily chart. 383 is currently short term support. 387 is resistance. Continue to target 390 to advance sales. The March soybean contract, even though it closed lower on 15 of the last 20 trading sessions, is actually in a sideways trading range, short term, between 1020 and 955, long term between 1050 and 922. Momentum indicators are over sold. Sales should only be made as momentum gets to overbought territory. Target 976 in the March contract to advance sales. November soybeans demonstrate a similar sideways trading range between 1028 and 927. Support is 974 then 965. Continue to target the 993 region to advance sales. March wheat support continues to be the 20 day moving average of 423. The contract met our sales objective of 436 and seems to be holding near the 50 day moving average of 433 which will be short term support. The contract is overbought and looks to correct lower. However. wheat contracts are demonstrating similarly to corn in that intraday charts are showing some strong bullish crosses of various moving averages. I follow 20, 50, 100 and 200 day (or periods on intraday charts) moving averages and both the 20 and 50 period moving average on intraday charts have shown bullish crosses indicating higher values are ahead. Considering that seeded acres in the US continue to fall, charts have given me a signal that a long term low has been scored and current values have no appeal to farmers, I have no sales recommendations at this time. July wheat analyses the same as the March contract. No sales recommendations at this time.

3 CORN FUTURES PRICES CH CK8 THURS. 12/28 THURS. 01/04 Daily Futures Closes THURS. 12/ SOYBEAN FUTURES PRICES THURS. 01/04 SH8 SX8 WHEAT FUTURES PRICES phone listed in CRM WH No in CRM WN8 THURS. 12/28 THURS. 01/04

Facility Updates Blissfield (517-486-2171) Click Here for Blissfield Cash Prices We hope everyone had a very happy New Year! We are continuing to work on shipments and housekeeping.

4 Facility Updates Blissfield ( ) Click Here for Blissfield Cash Prices We hope everyone had a very happy New Year! We are continuing to work on shipments and housekeeping. Have a great weekend. Breckenridge ( ) Click Here for Breckenridge Cash Prices Dustings of snow and very cold temperatures have given us more of the same here in the central part of the state. Shipments continue to move out on trucks. Housekeeping and maintenance are high up on our to-do list. Next Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday the MABA is hosting the 2018 Annual Winter Conference & Trade Show in Lansing. The breakout sessions have lots to offer and the trade show is sure to be a hit. Remember to stop by the MAC booth and check us out! Hope everyone has a warm & safe weekend. Jasper ( ) Click Here for Jasper Cash Prices Operations slowed here in Jasper after the winter holidays. Cold weather forecasts for the past week have remained consistent. We are hoping for slightly warmer temperatures in the days ahead. Stay warm and enjoy the weekend everyone! Marlette ( ) Brown City ( ) Click Here for Marlette Cash Prices Click Here for Brown City Cash Prices We d like to welcome Russ Cranick to our MAC team! Russ will be working out of our Marlette location, handling our safety program, DF Seeds sales, as well as helping out at the scale. Stop in to the office to meet Russ and ask any questions you may have about DF Seeds! We hope everyone had a great New Year and stay warm! Middleton ( ) Click Here for Middleton Cash Prices The Middleton area is enjoying the start of 2018 as a cool new year. Our crew has unloaded railcars of fertilizer both dry and liquid, loaded out trucks, performed repairs on machinery, and is preparing to start the meeting season. Stop by the office to see our line of animal health products. Here is hoping everyone has a safe and happy weekend. Newaygo ( ) Click Here for Newaygo Cash Prices Happy New Year to all! The Newaygo crew has started off 2018 busy with shipments. Also, it is never too early to start looking at pricing next year s crops. Please call the office with questions on marketing strategies and target orders. Have a great weekend! Tupperville ( ) Click Here for Tupperville Cash Prices We hope everyone has enjoyed the past few weeks of holidays and celebration. Enjoy the coming weekend as well folks!

Additional Information Safety Moment Wind chill is the cooling effect of wind on the exposed skin. The impacts on the human body can range from annoying to deadly.

Wind chill is perceived, but the effects are real it s a complicated subject that has taken some effort to define.

5 Additional Information Safety Moment Wind chill is the cooling effect of wind on the exposed skin. The impacts on the human body can range from annoying to deadly. It can cause frostbite within a matter of minutes and a full-blown medical emergency if hypothermia sets in. Wind chill is perceived, but the effects are real it s a complicated subject that has taken some effort to define. While frostbite can cause toes and fingers to freeze and require amputation no trivial matter hypothermia is a killer. Hypothermia occurs when your body loses heat faster than it can produce heat, causing a dangerously low body temperature, according to the Mayo Clinic. It sets in when your body temperature dips below 95 degrees. It s easy to tell when your fingers are going numb, but symptoms of hypothermia include confusion and disorientation; many people don t realize they are hypothermic until it is too late. Limit your time outdoors to only necessary activities. And stay hydrated: Arctic air is not only cold but dry, though you might not feel thirsty, keep drinking water throughout the day. Thank you and Be Safe Josh Spegel Agronomy Tip Prevent weed escapes from producing seed. Consider spot herbicide applications, hand removal of weeds or other techniques to stop weed-seed production. PLEASE join US FOR michigan agricutural commodities 15TH annual 2018 Outlook Conference Thursday February 8, :00 AM - 3:00 PM KEYNOTE SPEAKERS INCLUDE: MISSY BAUER BRIAN BASTINGS DR. MICHAEL BOEHLJE EAGLE EYE BANQUET CENTER Chandler Rd Bath Twp, MI Please RSVP to your local MAC facility by February 5th. Click Here to View MAC Bid Charts Click Here to Visit the MAC Weather Channel Click Here to Sign up to Receive Daily Weather Reports

Farm Futures Featured Story. Grainscoop I

Farm Futures Featured Story. Grainscoop I Grainscoop I From: Sent: To: Subject: The Farm Futures Team [farmfutures@farmprogres.ccsend.com] on behalf of The Farm Futures Team [farmfutures@farmprogress.com] Monday, July 15, 2013 2:46 PM grain@grainnotes.com