ROK-PI CliPS. Tailored Seasonal Prediction for the Pacific Island Countries. Dr. Jin Ho YOO, APEC Climate Center

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1 ROK-PI CliPS Tailored Seasonal Prediction for the Pacific Island Countries This project is funded by the Government of Korea through the Pacific Island Forum Secretariat (PIFS) and is being implemented by APCC and SPREP Dr. Jin Ho YOO, APEC Climate Center

2 ROK-PI CliPS: Overview Objective: Republic Of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services To strengthen the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities to climate risks at the seasonal timescale. Working Pillars: One Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting System Two Downscaled Prediction System Three Development of the Application Guideline Forecast Guidance I & II Four Training of the Climate Information Application Training & Young Scientist Support Program

3 ROK-PI CliPS: Structure Republic Of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services APCC DB Full MME data SPREP Prediction Online System CLiKp Downscale Monitor/ Analysis NMHS Large-Scale Climate Information Offline System Downscaling User Interface Forecast Guide Tailored Seasonal Forecast

4 ROK-PI CliPS: Timeline Republic Of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services JUL st Training and Inception Workshop [Tonga] FEB 2016 CLiKp Officially Announced and Released JUL nd Training Workshop [Cook Islands]

5 ROK-PI CliPS: Timeline Republic Of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services SEP 2016 APCC & SPREP Project Workshop [South Korea] May 2017 Young Scientist Support Program [South Korea]

6 Key contributors... ICU SCOPIC NIWA BoM POAMA APCC OCOF

7 The gaps... When ENSO impact is marginal? We are here! Literally, the gaps... Nonlinearity Climate change

8 cold tropical cyclone cold easy to use climate change cold cold The needs... drought rainfall too much information warm tailored & customized capacity building sea level rise warm warm Good Forecast warm warm warm

9 PICΛSO Pacific Island Countries Advanced Seasonal Outlook

10 Movie Clip: PICΛSO Trailer The Pacific Island Countries Advanced Seasonal Outlook (PICΛSO) was developed through the Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services (ROK-PI CliPS) project, which aimed to provide nationallytailored seasonal climate prediction information and build the prediction capacity of the Pacific Islands. The project was funded by the Government of Korea through the Pacific Island Forum Secretariat (PIFS) and was implemented by the APEC Climate Center (APCC) and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Acknowledgement When you use data from PICASO, please acknowledge us by either including the following text, Produced using PICASO or by including the APEC Climate Center, Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme. All Rights Reserved.

11 Good Forecast Use of the dynamic APCC Multi-Model Ensemble forecast

12 DSP: Predictable Practice

13 APCC MME forecast

14 Tailored & Customized Jointly identified downscaling strategy

15 Tailored for your location Observed large-scale relationship Coarse model resolution The reality Model representation of the relationship Simulation skills

16 Tailoring methodology Jointly identified climate predictors Stability verification Hybrid downscaling technique Bayesian regression y i ~t μ i, σ, ν ν 1 ~ exp K μ i = β 0 + β 1 x i σ ~ unif L, H β 0 ~N M 0, S 0 β 1 ~N M 1, S 1

17 Easy to Use Client-based portable UX interface

18 Intuitive climate outlook

19 PICΛSO user experience Outlook Details CO-PICs climate at a glance for experts large-scale view Tercile/Recent Forecasts Interactive Probability Scale ENSO/SST outlook Verification Scores Historical Forecast/Observation Temperature/Precipitation Natural Language Outlook Training/Validation Scores/Table Validation and Verification Data Guide Settings manage your data look beyond optimize the system Interactive Data Management Detailed Application Guide Themes and Styles Import and Export Climate Summary Export as PDF/PNG

20 PICΛSO Pacific Island Countries Advanced Seasonal Outlook

21 Movie Clip: PICΛSO Demonstration The Pacific Island Countries Advanced Seasonal Outlook (PICΛSO) was developed through the Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services (ROK-PI CliPS) project, which aimed to provide nationallytailored seasonal climate prediction information and build the prediction capacity of the Pacific Islands. The project was funded by the Government of Korea through the Pacific Island Forum Secretariat (PIFS) and was implemented by the APEC Climate Center (APCC) and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Acknowledgement When you use data from PICASO, please acknowledge us by either including the following text, Produced using PICASO or by including the APEC Climate Center, Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme. All Rights Reserved.

22 APEC Climate Center (APCC) ROK-PI CliPS Tailored Seasonal Prediction for the Pacific Island Countries This project is funded by the Government of Korea through the Pacific Island Forum Secretariat (PIFS) and is being implemented by APCC and SPREP Project Leader Climate Scientists Information Services Project Manager Media Specialist SPREP Team Special thanks to... Local Experts Technical Supports Dr. Jin Ho YOO (Dept. Head) Dr. Soo-Jin SOHN Dr. Yun-Young LEE Dr. WonMoo KIM Mr. Sang Myeong OH Dr. Hyunrok LEE Mr. Sangcheol KIM Ms.Bo Ra KIM Mr. Gyeongseok JO Mr. Salesa NIHMEI Mr. Sunny SEUSEU Ms.Sela SIMAMAO Mr. Christian SLAVEN Ms.Nanette WOONTON NMHS Officers & YSSP Participants Cuuva (Software) 2C Solution (Algorithm)

23 You want more? We have

24 Too much information + Combining all information for the optimized forecast +

25 ROK-PI CliPS: Structure + Republic Of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Service APCC DB Full MME data SPREP Prediction Online System CLiKp Downscale Downscaling User Interface Monitor/ Analysis NMHS Other Info. Large-Scale Climate Information Offline System Forecast Guide Integrated Seasonal Forecast Service to User

26 Optimal consensus forecast +