WWRP THORPEX Workshop and meetings of the Working Groups WMO Headquarters Geneva 22 to 26 September 2008

Transcription

1 WWRP THORPEX Workshop and meetings of the Working Groups WMO Headquarters Geneva 22 to 26 September 2008 by Gilbert Brunet World Weather Research Programme World Meteorological Organization

2 WORLD WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAMME Research focused on improving forecast skill for high-impact weather and benefiting member states through advancing the utilization of weather products and promoting the application of new techniques. THORPEX programme Joint Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) -- physcal processes THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) A 10-year research and development programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts and the utilzation of weather products for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment. Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Working Group on Societal and Economic Applications Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Promotes, organizes and/or endorses end-to-end weather research and development projects (RDPs) including efforts to advance the understanding of weather processes, improve forecasting techniques and increase the utility of forecast information with an emphasis on high-impact weather. Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research Expert Team on Weather Modification World Weather Research Programme Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System Identifies and supports the research initiatives of NMHSs in tropical countries, generally including collaboration with groups in universities or research institutes, which are likely to lead to social and economic benefits, particularly in the prevention of disasters during severe weather associated with tropical cyclone and monsoon rainfall anomalies. Joint Working Group on Verification Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research Working Group on Nowcasting Promotes and aids the implementation of nowcasting in the WWRP framework and within NMSs and among their end-users, including the potential use of numerical modelling and assimilation of very high resolution data. Joint Working Group on Verification Working Group on Nowcasting Facilitates the development and application of improved diagnostic verification methods to assess and enable improvement of the quality of weather forecasts, including forecasts from numerical weather and climate models. Working Group on Societal and Economic Applications Contact: wwrp@wmo.int Advances the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services and reviews and assists in the development and promotion of societal and economicrelated demonstration projects.

3 WWRP Objectives To improve public safety, quality of life and economic productivity by accelerating research on the prediction of high impact weather. To demonstrate improvements in the prediction of weather, with emphasis on high impact events, through the exploitation of advances in scientific understanding, observational network design, data assimilation and modelling techniques, and information systems. To improve understanding of atmospheric seamless processes from minutes to months of importance to weather forecasting through the organization of focused (e.g. WWRP SP) national and international cross-cutting (e.g. Meso. WFR and THORPEX) research programmes. To encourage the utilization of relevant advances in weather prediction systems to the benefit of all WMO Programmes and all Members (e.g. TIGGE, TIGGE-LAM ).

4 Goals of the Meeting To contribute to planning the international research agenda for weather prediction on time-scales of hours to seasons by: Make significant progress toward completion of the WWRP Strategic Plan so that we have a draft version for the 3rd Meeting of the CAS (Commission for the Atmospheric Sciences) Management Group (27-29 Oct 2008) To continue the other functions of the WWRP JSC such as: Decisions on new projects (e.g., endorsements, recommendations for improvement, concepts for new efforts) Calendar and guidance on upcoming meetings Recommendation on science, collaborations, organization Recommendations to WMO for upcoming CAS meetings leading to actions at CAS

5 Measures of Forecast Skill Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (over European Sector) Potential Vorticity Precipitation 500 hpa Heights The skill in the 1-day prediction of precipitation does not even match the skill of the 1-week prediction of the upper-atmosphere flow. Bottom Line: Weather prediction has dramatically improved (one of the great scientific and technological advances of the late 20th century). Society, the economy and the environment can greatly benefit from the improved leadtime of predictions. Some aspects of high impact weather and environmental events are still relatively poorly predicted. ECMWF

6 Frequency of disasters (Global, ) Extreme Temperature 3.6% Flood 30% Slides 5% Drought 7% Wild Fires 3.5% Epidemic, famine, insects 14% Windstorm 25% Tsunami 0.39% Earthquake 9% Volcano 1.6% Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

7 Loss of human life (Global, ) Drought 28% Flood 9% Extreme Temperature 3.4% Slides 0.9% Windstorm 13% Wild Fires 0.06% Epidemic, famine, insects 19% Earthquake 14% Tsunami 11% Volcano 2.5% Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

8 Economic losses (Global, ) Wild Fires 2.45% Slides 0.4% Windstorm 38% Flood 28% Extreme Temperature 1.8% Drought 5% Earthquake 24% Tsunami 1% Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

9 Natural Disaster Trends: Costs Billions of USD per decade Geological Hydrometeorological Costs are escalating... Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database decade

10 Natural Disaster Trends: Casualties Millions of casualties per decade 2.66 Geological Hydrometeorological but we are saving lives Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database decade

11 Challenges Can WWRP efforts help improve the lead-time, accuracy, dissemination and reaction to forecasts of high-impact weather and: Reduce the economic toll of these events? Reduce the fatalities in the developing world? Extend the success in fatality reductions associated with epidemics, famine, insects, drought, temperature extremes and other ``indirect effects of weather? Contribute to today s challenge --- e.g., Food security, reduce the human, environmental and economic impacts of climate change, which is typically felt on weather time-scales

12 WWRP Strategies Identify the types of weather event where multinational research collaboration is likely to lead to improved prediction and associated benefits to participants. Develop and apply methods, in conjunction with other WMO programmes, for assessing the cost-benefits of improved forecasts of high impact weather events. Promote, organize andlor endorse research programmes including, where necessary, field experiments to develop understanding of weather processes and improve forecasting techniques. Organize and lead projects in conjunction with other WMO Programmes to demonstrate and objectively verify improvements in weather forecasting accuracy. Sponsor technical workshops and conferences to further understanding of the science and technology involved in improved weather prediction. Organize training programmes to ensure that all Members can benefit from WWRP advances

13 White Paper One (WP1): Toward A Seamless Process for the Prediction of Weather and Climate A collaborative effort between the WMO Programs WWRP-THORPEX and WCRP on the advancement of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction; The WP1 was prepared by a joint WWRP-THORPEX/WCRP team comprised of: Gilbert Brunet, Melvyn Shapiro, Brian Hoskins, Mitch Moncrieff, Randal Dole, George Kiladis, Ben Kirtman, Andrew Lorenc, Brian Mill, Rebecca Morss, Saroja Polavarapu, David Rogers, John Schaake and Jagadish Shukla; It has been presented to the WWRP and WCRP JSCs in 2008; It is endorsed by a large group of members of the climate and weather communities; To be published in BAMS.

14 WP1 Research Objectives Seamless weather/climate prediction with Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) The multi-scale organisation of tropical convection and its two-way interaction with the global circulation Data assimilation for coupled models as a prediction and validation tool for weather and climate research Utilization of sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions for social and economic benefits

15 Seamless weather/climate prediction with Ensemble Prediction Systems(EPSs) Terms of reference for collaboration between TIGGE and CHFP must be establish for experimentation and data sharing for sub-seasonal to seasonal historical forecasts ( weeks to season) including the required infrastructure. Development and use of ensemble based modeling methods in order to improve probabilistic estimates of the likelihood of high-impact events. The requirements for both ensemble prediction methods and greatly increased spatial resolution imply substantial future requirements for computational power and for data storage and delivery capacity.

16 The multi-scale organisation of tropical convection and its two-way interaction with the global circulation A high resolution operational global analysis and 10-day forecast of basic parameters and physical processes for diagnostic and verification studies; Capability acceleration of the High-Performance Computing (HPC) centers for high-resolution regional and global numerical weather, climate and environmental science activities; Maintaining existing and implementing planned satellite missions that measure tropical cloud and precipitation systems in order to provide a long-term capability for process studies, data assimilation and prediction in collaboration with GCOS; Collaborative effort through YOTC and TPARC.

17 Data assimilation for coupled models as a prediction and validation tool for weather and climate research In addition to the resources needed for the continued development of operational forecasting systems, specific resources are needed for the development of the seamless aspects of data assimilation which are not immediately linked to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); The next generation re-analysis is progressing towards Earth-system assimilations. To achieve, they need an ongoing interdisciplinary weather-climate research programme into coupled modelling system assimilation issues.

18 Utilization of Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Predictions for Social and Economic Development A need for closer ties between weather and climate research: Understanding how information at the weather/climate interface, including uncertainty, connects with decisionmaking There is also a great need for much easier access to forecast data by the user community. These need to be available in special user-oriented products. How to achieve this service? The post-processing techniques that are needed by many users may require an archive of past forecasts (e.g. for water cycle applications). Some user applications require an archive of reforecasts from fixed models for periods as long as 20 years or more.

19 Year of coordinated Observing, modeling and Forecasting This proposed activity arose from a recommendation from the WCRP/Thorpex Meeting on Tropical Convection in Trieste in March The project further developed as a cooperation with WCRP, Thorpex, GEWEX, AAMP, WOAP, WMP, etc. It was suggested that, if planned for 2008, this could form a contribution to the UN Year of Planet Earth* and compliment IPY. It is since starting to circulate and any and all comments are welcome. *January 5, 2006: The United Nations General Assembly, meeting in New York, has proclaimed the year 2008 to be the United Nations International Year of Planet Earth. The Year's activities will span the three years Duane.waliser@jpl.nasa.gov

20 THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection and the Madden Julian Oscillation ICTP, March 2006, Trieste, Italy Meeting Report prepared by J. Slingo, F. Molteni, M. Moncrieff, M.Shapiro For the full report please Programmatic Recommendations Shared development of a Computational Laboratory for advancing knowledge and predictive skill, involving case studies, idealized simulations and theoretical interpretations. (wcrp/thorpex) Year of coordinated observing, modeling and forecasting of organized tropical convection and its influences on predictability (an IOP every day concept). This forms the motivation for the remaining slides

21 Year of coordinated observing, modeling and forecasting The last years have marked extraordinary gains in our observational, modeling and technological infrastructure. In particular: Progress Towards a GOOS has been Substantial EOS-era of Satellite Observations Has Arrived Global Cloud-Resolving Model Capability In addition, we have come to appreciate, in many cases: Short-term term weather errors <-> < > Long-term climate biases These advances in resources, technology and thinking need to be and can be woven together to maximize their return on investment.

22 Progress Towards a GOOS has been Substantial PIRATA

23 EOS-era of Satellite Observations Has Arrived Here is just a sample, consider where we were years ago TOPEX: sea surface height QuickScat: ocean surface winds TMI: sea surface temperature w/clouds TRMM: precipitation AIRS: temperature and water vapor profiles CloudSat: cloud profiles Calipso: aerosol/thin-cloud profiles COARE: 120-day IOP ~6000 soundings Tropical Soundings: AIRS: ~100,000/day CloudSat: ~90,000/day AMSRE: ocean precip, water vapor, liquid water MLS: upper tropospheric water vapor, cloud ice, temperature CERES: TOA and surface radiative fluxes MODIS: cloud characteristics, ocean color, land characteristics AURA platform: atmospheric composition/chemistry MISR: aerosol and cloud structure

24 Global Cloud Resolving Model Capability Far from a single enterprise anymore MMF; superparameterization A CRM A CRM Courtesy Satoh Frontier Research Center for Global Change A GCM CSU, LLNL & GSFC DARE 4km Rossby radius ~100km Courtesy Kuang

25 Short-term term weather errors <-> < > Long-term climate biases DOE CAPT* Project at LLNL integrates climate models in weather prediction mode Perfectly suited for a focus year Approach NCAR Day 3 Precipitation Error for DJF NCAR DJF Climatological Error *The CAPT project is a joint project of the DOE CCPP and ARM Programs Courtesy S. Klein

26 Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling and Forecasting Of The Tropics Leveraging the vast amounts of new data and computational resources becoming available in conjunction with the development of new / high-resolution modeling frameworks in order to better characterize, understand, model and forecast multiscale convective/dynamic interactions and processes in the Tropics. We are in a new era. In the Tropics, we have an: IOP every day No New (Big) $$$ Required Proposed Focus: Time: ~1+ Years; Start: late 2007/early 2008 Region: ~ 40N - 40S Time Scales: Diurnal to Seasonal Case Study/Event Identification and Detailed Analyses: MJO events, convectively-coupled waves, active/break monsoon, typhoon/hurricanes, easterly waves, mesoscale systems, etc. Central repository to store/disseminate data as well as information on results, activities, etc. Leverage/Coordinate existing resources.

27 Miscellaneous highlights from the JSC of the WWRP July 2009 Welcome to Brian Mills in his capacity as the new Chair of the WWRP Societal and Economic Research and Application Working Group. The WMO Secretariat needs to investigate the interrelationship between CBS, WGNE and CAS-WWRP efforts on verification. with appropriate persons to improve links between research and operational efforts on verification including the transition of research applications to operations. The WWRP-JSC notes the importance of aerosol and atmospheric chemistry as a component of the prediction system both as a direct societal need and through the impact of these constituents on meteorological variables. The Working Groups and the THORPEX programme focus on fostering increased collaboration with Environmental Prediction, particularly on the mesoscale where building upon the Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Advisory Assessment (SDS-WAS) could further accelerate progress. We are encouraged continued input to WWRP enews and increase its distribution.