Climate change and natural hazards

Transcription

1 WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Climate change and natural hazards Universal Postal Union COUNCIL OF ADMINISTRATION/POSTAL OPERATIONS COUNCIL Bern, 5 November 2010 Christian BLONDIN World Meteorological Organization cblondin@wmo.int Climate change and natural hazards 1 WMO Cabinet and External Relations Department

2 Agenda Climate change: few facts Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: past and future trends WMO experience in Emergency Assistance and Prevention/Preparedness Background information Climate change adaptation: the role of WMO Framework for Disaster Risk Management and Early Warning Systems Climate change and natural hazards 2

3 Weather & climate WMO For centuries man has tried to change the weather He has succeeded in changing climate Climate change difficult to explain in everyday terms: Uncertainty is not a lack of consensus Most scientists write for peers A specialized vocabulary Simultaneous effects are difficult to discriminate Climate change and natural hazards 3

4 Abrupt change & uncertainties Transitions between equilibrium states Abrupt transitions Uncertainties Climate models Scenarios Climate change and natural hazards 4

5 IPCC 4th Assessment Report 1988: WMO & UNEP established the IPCC Previous reports approved in 1990, 1995 & : 4 th Assessment Report approved & Nobel Peace Prize 5 th Assessment Report to be finalized by 2014 Climate change and natural hazards 5

6 2008 Global Climate assessment WMO The year 2008 ranked as one of the warmest years on record according to the analyses made by leading climate centres. The Met Office Hadley Centre analyses showed that the global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2008 was 0.31 C (0.56 F) above the annual average of 14.0 C (57.2 F), ranking 2008 as the tenth warmest year on record. Arctic sea-ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to its second-lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual cycle of melt and growth on 14 September Several extreme weather and climate events were recorded in various parts of the world in 2008, of which perhaps the most dramatic was tropical cyclone Nargis, which made landfall in Myanmar in May, causing catastrophic destruction and more than fatalities. Other parts of the world suffered severe flooding, extreme heat waves and droughts. Climate change and natural hazards 6

7 Observed climate change & its impacts Warming unequivocal Rising global air & ocean average temperatures Rising average sea level Widespread melting of snow & ice Some predicted impacts: Warming ~ 0,2 C/decade over next 20 years ~ cm projected sea-level rise by end of century Increased frequency & intensity of extreme events neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all impacts, but they can complement each other to significantly reduce risks Climate change and natural hazards 7

8 Increase in Heavy Precipitation Climate change and natural hazards 8

9 Tropical cyclones ~100 cyclones per year J. Kossin, UNESCO, Sep 2010 Summary Heterogeneity in the tropical cyclone records continues to pose challenges in trend detection of all metrics, but progress is being made along a number of fronts. There is evidence that the most intense tropical cyclones have become stronger, in a manner congruent with extant theory and numerical simulations. Despite the observed intensity increases, overall global activity, which also incorporates frequency and duration, exhibits no obvious trend over the past 30 years. Continued progress will be made through improved numerical simulation, more complete development of theoretical frameworks, and further quantification of past (and future) observational biases and discontinuities. Climate change and natural hazards 9

10 Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts ( ) Extreme Temp. 4% Tsunami 0,4% Volcano 1,6% Drought 5% Epidemic, insects 13% Earthquake 8% Windstorm 27% Flood 33% Number of events 90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses Slides 5% Wild Fires 3% Windstorm 43% Earthquake 22% Extreme Temp. 5% Flood 10% Drought 5% Flood 25% Climate change and natural hazards 10 Drought 30% Tsunami 1% Extreme Temp. 2% Wild Fires 2% Windstorm 15% Earthquake 16% Tsunami 12% Epidemic, insects 10% Economic losses Loss of life Volcano 1% Source: EM- DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc are related to hydrometeorological hazards and conditions.

11 Disaster Losses, Total and Share of GDP, Richest and Poorest Nations ( ) Billions of USD per decade Geological Hydrometeorological decade 495 Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up Millions of casualties per decade Geological While casualties related to hydrometeorological disasters are decreasing Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Hydrometeorological decade Climate change and natural hazards 11

12 Emergency Assistance: Field Mission (1) Assessment of urgent needs (2) Identification of medium- and long-term requirements Emergency Assistance Fund Gov. Aid Package WMO VCP Bilateral agreements Info to donors Donors reaction Donors Offers of support Co-ordination EART Secretariat Donors etc. Implementation of co-ordinated assistance Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009 Climate change and natural hazards 12 12

13 Major achievements WMO Improvement in the range and accuracy of weather forecasts: today a five day weather forecast is as reliable as a two-day forecast 20 years ago. Weather forecasts reach everywhere in the world in real time, between 2 to 3 hours. El Niño can now be forecast 5 to 6 months in advance. Global awareness about climate change and the dangers posed by natural disasters. Improved assessment and management of water resources. Awarding more than fellowships in the last decade for the training of scientists, thereby raising the level of scientific knowledge in over 150 countries. IPCC awarded Nobel Peace prize in 2007 Climate change and natural hazards 13

14 Simplified Schematic of Linkages in Climate and Disaster Risk Management Climate Adaptation Multi-sectoral planning and risk management Climate Mitigation Emission reduction Incremental cumulative risk Disaster Risk Management Geological Meteorological, Hydrological and climate extremes Climate change and natural hazards 14

15 A Global Framework for Climate Services WMO WCC-3 key outcome 4 major components: Observation & monitoring Research and modelling Climate services information system Climate services applications (New!) A framework to support: Disaster risk management Climate change adaptation Achievement of UN MDGs Climate change and natural hazards 15

16 WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Thank you for your attention Climate change and natural hazards 16

17 The Earth's protective blanket Climate variability: longterm climate fluctuations Natural greenhouse effect: the atmosphere as a blanket Blanket has kept global mean temperature at ~15 o C Climate change: human activities increase blanket effect Climate change and natural hazards 17

18 Greenhouse gas generation & abundance (a) Global emissions of principal anthropogenic GHGs 1970 to 2004 (b) Distribution of anthropogenic GHGs in 2004: CO2-equivalent total emissions (c) Distribution of anthropogenic GHG emitting sectors in 2004: CO2- equivalent total emissions (forestry includes deforestation) Climate change and natural hazards 18

19 Climate change adaptation: the role of WMO WMO Observation systems Research activities Capacity building Regional Climate Centres Regional Training Centres Human resources reinforcement WMO Programme for LDCs Climate change and natural hazards 19

20 Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Programme WMO Prediction and early warnings on natural disasters Contribution to Hyogo Framework for Action Partnership with IOC/UNESCO in Tsunami Warning System Development of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems Focus on preparedness & risk reduction Climate change and natural hazards 20

21 Example of WMO coordinated Research Programme: : THORPEX Image 06/08/ :00 TU Monsoon heavy rains in Pakistan and India; Heat wave and drought in Russia; start of the Cyclone season affecting the Caribbean (cf. Haiti): To what extent and with which delays these hazards can be forecast? Climate change and natural hazards 21

22 Example of WMO coordinated Research Programme: : THORPEX Climate change and natural hazards 22

23 WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 189 Members Data policy and Exchange: Resolutions 40 (Cg XII) and 29 (Cg XIII) Climate change and natural hazards 23

24 WMO s Global Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System Climate change and natural hazards 24

25 Disaster Losses, Total and Share of GDP, Richest and Poorest Nations ( ) Climate change and natural hazards 25

26 Most countries are in relief and response mode! Communities at risk WMO Early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk management! NATIONAL SERVICES Meteorological hazard warning National to local governments post-disaster response Hydrological hazard warning Geological Marine Health (etc.) Climate change and natural hazards 26

27 Investments in Early Warning Systems! 2 Need to shift to Preparedness! COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES 5 feedback 3 warnings 1 Alignment of national to local policies, plans, resources and coordination mechanisms warnings 3 5 feedback preventive actions 4 Community Preparedness Meteorological Hydrological 3 warnings Geological Marine 5 feedback Health (etc.) Climate change and natural hazards 27

28 WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for DRM 1. Identification of various user-communities and their requirements (eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance) 2. Increased investments in observations, data rescue programmes and statistical analysis of hazards 3. Climate forecasting technologies (seasonal, interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunity for improved sectoral planning for DRR Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools 4. Developing climate related information and decision tools for DRR Climate change and natural hazards 28

29 Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction (Many other examples exist) DECISION MAKERS Emergency Services Government Authorities Insurance Public, Media Local National Government Insurance Suppliers Public, Media Urban planners Local to national Governments Banks Insurance Negotiators Parlimentarian Local/national governments Private sector DECISIONS SERVICES Emergency planning activation and response Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses Short to medterm weather forecasts: Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings Next hour to 10 days Urban & coastal Emergency Preparedness Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds Probabilistic seasonal forecasts: Probabilities of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Season to year Strategic Planning Building codes Infrastructure & Urban Development and Retrofitting Land Zoning and Planning Future Decadal trend analysis: of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Decade International negotiations and agreements National policies and legilation Climate Change scenarios IPCC Process Long term Scenarios Climate change and natural hazards 29