Climate change and effects on the European spread pattern of Scaphoideus titanus Ball
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1 Climate change and effects on the European spread pattern of Scaphoideus titanus Ball Ivo E. Rigamonti 1, Luigi Mariani 2, Gabriele Cola 2, Johann Baumgärtner 3 1 DeFENS, Università degli Studi di Milano 2 DiSAA, Università degli Studi di Milano 3 - CASAS, Kensington (CA)
2 Introductiory remarks Scaphoideus titanus is a major pest in viticulture, since its establishment in Europe, as vector of a quarantine pathogen, the Flavescence Dorée phytoplasma Its management is based on mandatory control measures (insecticide spraying) Its distribution in Europe has dramatically changed at the end of the 1980ies, after an abrupt climate change Nowadays it has colonized Europe from the Atlantic Ocean to the Black sea and it is still spreading
3 Purpose of the presentation To contribute to an explanation of the changing distribution of the leafhopper Scaphoideus titanus in Europe Aim of the paper The analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution on the basis of the predicted geographical distribution within the and the time periods in Europe
4 European spread pattern of S. titanus before ? sporadic Chuche and Thiéry, Agron. Sustain. Dev., 34:
5 Mean yearly temperature in Europe 1950/2011
6 Mean yearly temperature in Switzerland 1961/2011 (by Meteoswiss) Temperatures are expressed as positive (red) or negative (blue) anomaly compared to the average. The colors red (hot years) affected only 10% of the years , and the percentage rises to 90% after 1988.
7 The new European climate (after 1987) Temperature: +0.5 C Precipitation: increase Solar Radiation: decrease Temperature: +1.5 C Solar radiation: increase.
8 Modelling approach An age-structured mechanistic model built on biophysical (development, including diapause) and demographic (natality and mortality) processes for poikilotherm organisms Model development, parametrization and validation Time-varying distributed delay with attrition; the model simulates vine plant canopy occupancy by diapausing eggs, post-diapausing eggs, nymphs and adults The temperature controls development, survival and reproduction. Survival of nondiapausing life stages is further controlled by the plant phenology. The distribution in Europe requires the explicit consideration of photoperiodic (latitudinal) effects on diapause Model use The assessment of the colonization potential of S. titanus on the basis of a Climatic Suitability Index ξ
9 Model performance: prediction and explanation of the occupancy in a Swiss vineyard Observed occurences Simulated occurrences Days Rigamonti et al., The Canadian Entomologist, 146: 67-79
10 Definition of the Climatic Suitability Index ξ The index has been obtained on the basis of the number of diapausing and post diapausing eggs at the beginning of grapevine vegetative development (BBCH 11), one of the model outputs. The index is quantified by dividing the number of eggs obtained in one year by the number of eggs obtained in the previous year
11 Predicted geographical distribution in Europe Maximum and minimum daily temperatures (TX, TN) for period gathered for the 6690 synoptic stations from the NOAA GSOD dataset located within the ranges 28 N 72 N and 11 W 55 E. Reference grid: 0.25 degrees lat lon with heights upscaled from the Nasa SRTM Digital Elevation Model Spatialization of TX,TN for each grid node: IDWM method (Inverse Distance Weighted Mean on daily TX, TN previously homogenized to the height of each grid node). Model run: the model was applied to each point of the grid. Reference runs hereafter discussed: Run 1) from 1981 to 1990, ξ is the mean value of the period Run 2) from 1991 to 2000, ξ is the mean value of the period Run 3) from 2001 to 2010, ξ is the mean value of the period Run 4) from 2007 to 2013, ξ is the mean value of the period
12 Mean ξ value in Europe for the five-year period Mean ξ rate
13 Mean ξ value in Europe for the five-year period Mean ξ rate
14 Mean ξ value in Europe for the five-year period Mean ξ rate
15 Mean ξ value in Europe for the five-year period Mean ξ rate
16 Variation of the Mean ξ value in Europe Mean ξ variation
17 Mean ξ value in Europe for the year 2004 Mean ξ rate
18 Concluding remarks A northern shift of the potential distribution area of S. titanus has been observed within the study time period An increase in the ξ values has been observed in Central and Eastern Europe A stability in the ξ values has been observed at the southern potential distribution limit A high suitability of Northern Italy, Central and Eastern Europe along the 45 latitude has been confirmed The climate change occurred in the 980 may contribute to an explanation of - the changing distribution of S. titanus in Europe - the spatio-temporal dynamics as summarized on the previously shown maps
19 Thank you for your attention
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