Forecasters meeting. The ALADIN consortium: goals and work practices. P. Termonia. Ankara, October 2014

Transcription

1 Forecasters meeting The ALADIN consortium: goals and work practices P. Termonia Ankara, October 2014

2 Outline The ALADIN consortium: what, why, goal? Link with HIRLAM The model(s): code and configurations From science to operations Verification and validation The goal of this meeting: a portfolio write a paper?

3 Current governance

4 13 Q3 13 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 06 Q3 06 Q1 05 Q3 05 Q1 04 Q3 04 Q1 03 Q3 03 Q1 02 Q3 02 Q1 01 Q3 01 Q1 00 Q3 00 Q1 99 Q3 99 Q1 98 Q3 98 Q1 97 Q3 97 Q1 96 Q3 96 Q1 95 Q3 95 Q1 94 Q Q Q3 93 Q1 92 Q3 92 Q1 91 Q3 91 Q1 Person.Month Total participation in the ALADIN project Evolution of the quarterly manpower 300 DEPORTED-ALAT DEPORTED LACE/PRAGUE-ALAT LACE/PRAGUE TOULOUSE-ALAT TOULOUSE Yearly average Quarter 4

5 Participation in the ALADIN project in 2013 Breakdown of the person.months by country BULGARIA 2% ALGERIA 1% PORTUGAL 2% POLAND 3% TUNISIA 3% TURKEY 2% SLOVENIA 3% MOROCCO 2% ROMANIA 2% FRANCE 46% CROATIA 3% SLOVAKIA 2% AUSTRIA 6% HUNGARY 3% BELGIUM 10% CZECH REP 9% 5

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7 Strategy meeting 2011 investment in code design/development/maintenance; the replacement of the old ISBA scheme by SURFEX; collaboration; external funding; and to launch an effort to define our users and to coordinate a project on addressing the end user requirements.

8 Convergence with HIRLAM

9 Previous GA, Tunis, relevant for this meeting The GA approved and asked the ALADIN PM to come back and report on the forecasters meeting at the next GA. The Task Force recommended that, for the next few years, the two consortia should focus onactions that would bring convergence on system/maintenance to fruition. It also recommended to look at ways that would facilitate minimal convergence at governance level, keeping within the bounds of option 1. The two remaining options could be discussed later on a next programme phase. The GA agreed on going toward a common governance, but not for the next MoUs. The GA agreed on common meetings (HAC/PAC as in May 2013, next Council/GA). The GA asked the Task Force (the ALADIN, HIRLAM and LACE PMs, the chairpersons of HAC, PAC and CSSI) to set clear directives for the renewal of MoUs, considering still two separate MoUs. The Task Force should identify which points should be addressed in the common parts (to be presented and discussed at the next joint HAC/PAC meeting) and reported at the next GA/Council).

10 Code and model configurations 10

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12 ALADIN PAC: roadmap needed for the code development to be concretized at the next ALADIN GA(/HIRLAM Council) Dynamical core: Scalability/effici ency Physicsdynamics coupling Localized A grid Unstructured grids Radiation Turbulence HFS? Microphysics/clouds? Surface NOT FINALIZED, TO BE CONSOLIDATED FOR THE GA/COUNCIL IN DECEMEBER!!! Data assimilation MoU MoU5 To be discussed with CSSI 12

13 National model domains in the ALADIN consortium 13

14 Convection permitting vs. convection resolving The current system is built on the mesoscale model is the ALADIN model. A decade ago the resolutions started to enter the domain of the convection permitting scales (roughly below 5 km). Two approaches were followed with the ALADIN and HIRLAM consortia: Convection is (sufficiently well) resolved at 2.5 km so that we do not need to parameterize it, This led to the AROME model based on the ALADIN NH dynamics with the meso-nh physics, developed in the past by Météo France, Seity et al. (2011). Convection should be parametrized in the gray zone. This led to a multiscale parameterization of deep convection, the so-called 3MT scheme, see Gerard and Geleyn (2005), and Gerard et al. (2009). This leads to the ALARO model. Now we start exchanging parameterizations from one model to the other: AROME and ALARO can be seen as configurations of one system, HARMONIE. 14

15 Increasing the resolution : Prototype AROME 1.3km at Météo France AROME1.3kmL90 AROME2.5kmL90 HRV observation AROME2.5kmL90 Courtesy Yann Seity, see talk of F. Bouyssel during this meeting for more details

16 Toward 1-km resolution

17 Multi-scale behavior of the prognostic deep convection in the ALARO model with the 3MT scheme Courtesy L. Gerard: Gerard and Geleyn (2005), Gerard (2007), Gerard et al. (2009) 17

18 Verification/validation? Very mutlifaceted One can distinguish various aspects: Scientific validation Code sanity checks Meterological validations Operational quality control (at home) Each of them should be addressed, BUT at what level? 18

19 LAM EPS WE ARE PRODUCING EXTRA SKILL ON TOP OF ECMWF! We have different EPS systems running: GLAMEPS and LAEF (not time to give details) A novel score: Potential Continously Ranked Economic Value (CREV) relative to (sample) climatology of ECEPS (black full line), GLAMEPS (red dashed line), GLAMEPS-LAEF (green dotted line) and ECEPS-GLAMEPS-LAEF (blue dash dotted line) for bias corrected T2m and S10m (run = 12h, lead time = 42h). Smet, G., P. Termonia and A. Deckmyn, 2012: Added economic value of limited area multi-eps weather forecasting applications Tellus, A, 64, 18901

20 From science to operations summarized on 1 sheet activity Scientific research Algorithms (scalability/ efficiency) Scientific validation ALADIN governance CSSI CSSI phasing + sanity check MF + CSSI + ACNA porting ACNA Meteorological (local) validation LTMs New demands END USERS Link with Actions HIRLAM undertaken Common work No stimulus plan needed Add-hoc Action on discussions ACRANEB2; during the Physic-dynamics ASM/workshop interaction; HARP common code Close link with the HIRLAM system PL HARMONIE system (Ankara action) Different governanc es: split repsonsibili ties, but common tools

21 Tools (for quality control): APMT, HARP, HARMONIE system tools

22 From science to operational validations in a scientific paper: R. Hamdi, D. Degrauwe, A. Duerinckx, J. Cedilnik, V. Costa, T. Dalkilic, K. Essaouini, M. Jerczynki, F. Kocaman, L. Kullmann, J.-F. Mahfouf, F. Meier, M. Sassi, S. Schneider, F. Vãňa, and P. Termonia, 2014: Evaluating the performance of SURFEXv5 as a new land surface scheme for the ALADINcy36 and ALARO-0 models, Geosci. Model Dev., 7,

23 Primary goal for this meeting: Collect cases

24 Operational tests of the CE flooing case in 2013 ALARO5-AUSTRIA IFS / ECMWF COSMO-EU (DWD) UTC UTC UTC

25 Operational high resolution vs. global (IFS, ECMWF)

26 For this week This meeting itself is an experiment (let us try to set a good precedent) We will be comparing apples with pears which is difficult and a priori pointless, but Together we produce extra skill w.r.t. ECMWF. Can operational forecasting move to convection-permitting EPS? The aim is to create a portfolio with cases that can be used by each of the ALADIN members to extract information to Address the needs and to make convincing cases for their end users and decision makers This could be done in the form of folders (which each memebr should finance by themselves) The case will be catalogued and may steer research As a secondary goal, we could keep in the back of our mind to aim at writing a scientific paper in for instance GMD (see the paper on SURFEX)