Tour d'aladin. Piet Termonia ALADIN GA 9-10/1/2016

Transcription

1 Tour d'aladin Piet Termonia ALADIN GA 9-10/1/2016

2 ALADIN Strategy Key deliverables: Model configurations: The deliverable of the ALADIN cooperation is a set of four atmospheric model configurations that are intended for daily operational NWP Data assimilation tools: The deliverable of the ALADIN cooperation is a set of data assimilation tools (see part 5.3 for more details) that improve the short-range forecasts using regional in situ observing networks, satellites, and radars Probabilistic forecasting systems: The deliverable of the ALADIN cooperation will be a set of decision-making tools for use with the NWP models of the ALADIN partners NWP software coordination: The deliverable of the ALADIN cooperation will be a sustained activity on using and improving a common NWP software repository that implements the above deliverables Ancillary software and support to complementary goals: extra deliverables of the ALADIN cooperation will be initiatives to support non-strictly NWP activities, to the extent that it is cost-effective to handle them at consortium level.

3 Strategy : as regional observing systems develop, data assimilation will become the main factor in the short range forecast performance of NWP institutes: most partners will run their own 3D-Var data assimilation, use a neighbouring country's assimilation, or face increasing challenges about their national NWP activity. The use of regional data assimilation means a growing interdependence between NWP and regional observing system deployment & processing. The bigger NWP centres will start using simplified versions of 4D-Var and ensemble data assimilation; 4

4 ALADIN PAC 2014: roadmap needed for the code development Dynamical core: Scalability/effici ency Physicsdynamics coupling Localized A grid Unstructured grids Radiation Turbulence? Microphysics/clouds? Surface Strategy? Data assimilation MoU MoU5 4

5 National Office of Meteorology ALGERIA IBM HPC ONMALGERIA Since november 2006: Operational implementation of the ALADIN model that runs at MF with 12 km horizontal resolution and 46 levels in the vertical. Since october 2013: Acquisition of a supercomputer (416 processors, 520 TB of storage, 10 TF). Since january 2014: Implementation of models ALADIN, AROME and ALADINDUST in cycle 38 on the IBM machine ONM and all these models are operational. ALADIN Coupled with Horizontal resolution Nombre of points Nomber of vertical levels Run out to Nomber of runs (per day) ARPEGE (3h) 8 km 350* T+72h Twice (00UTC,12UTC) AROME ALADIN (1h) 3 km 400* T+48h Twice (00UTC,12UTC) ALADIN DUST ARPEGE (3h) 14 km 250* T+48h Twice (00UTC, 12UTC)

6 Austria Activities 2015 Austria First tests with AROME Nowcasting: Hourly runs 12h forecast range Rapid refresh cycle Assimilation of Radar data Assimilation of MODE-S (only test cases) Plans for 2016: - Further development of AROME-Nowcasting -> Coupling of INCA with AROME Radar

7 Belgium: code design Neutral in scores, but better performance for cases: improved cold pool mechanism

8 Bulgaria The Master Degree Thesis of Milena Koleva, entitled Lightning activity over Bulgaria during the warm part of 2014 evaluation of lightning data from some meteorological stations, as well from ATDnet data over the regions (20x20km) of the considered stations The second part of the work was to test the ability of some well known methods determining the atmospheric instability to forecast thunderstorm formation over Bulgaria. Some instability indices (KI, CTOT, VTOT, and TTOT) calculated based on ALADIN-BG forecasted were evaluated for the cases with and without lightning activity according to ATDnet data. K index (George, 1960):KI=(T850 T500) + Td850 -(T700Td700) Cross Totals (Miller, 1967): CTOT = Td850 - T500 Vertical Totals (Miller, 1967): VTOT= T850 - T500 Total Totals (Miller, 1967): TTOT= CTOT + VTOT a comparison between aerological sounding and forecasted data of air and dew point temperatures at 850, 700 and 500 hpa was performed. Cclll Box-and-whiskers plots of K and Total totals indices calculated from sounding (sond) and from ALADIN-BG (mod) for cases without (no) and with (yes) lightning activity over Sofia

9 ALADIN activities in Croatia 2015 operational forecast uses ALARO0 baseline run in 4 km resolution with surface assimilation development of 3DVAR suite for 4 km new surface fields 5 research articles in special issue of Croatian Meteorological Journal (devoted to 15 years of operational forecast) research article in GMD Forecast of 10 m wind in Makarska Black - measurements Operational forecasts: Red 2km NH operational run Full lines 8 km forecast Dashed 2 km dynamical adaptation

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11 Activities at the Hungarian Meteorological Service Operational AROME Data Assimilation is running in a 3 hourly updated assimilation cycle (Rapid Update Cycle) using only conventional observations (SYNOP, TEMP, AIREP). In order to increase the benefit of RUC system, the use of non-conventional observations are under evaluation. Observations: RADAR reflectivity and radial winds from Hungarian RADAR sites GNSS Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) MSG satellite SEVIRI radiance MSG derived AMVs (MPEF and High Resolution Winds AMV) 3h AROME/Hungary precipitation forecasts for 6th of August, panel: Without AMV, 2.: with MPEF AMV, 3.: RADAR observation, 4.: with HRW AMV

12 Radar data assimilation in Météo France : improvement in cases and forecast range Toulon case (19/09/14) Improved BSS for short and mid-term forecast ranges 18h fct range Observation OPER analysis TEST EXP analysis 24h fct range

13 Processing and assimilating ground based GPS data from the Moroccan network in ALADIN/MAROC Cy40ope2 in ALADIN-MAROC 7.5 Km, 70 l Figure 1 : GPS data coverage over morocco Figure 2 : ZTD map locally produced by BERNESE ALBACHIR cy40op2, 7.5 Km, 70 l Figure 3: Relative humidity increments at 850 hpa Figure 4: Relative humidity increments at 700 hpa 10 ground-based GPS stations are installed in different Moroccan synoptic stations (Figure 1). Data from this network is collected in real time and stored in a local server. Data from IGS website is also downloaded, especially from GPS stations inside and around ALADINMAROC domain. A suite for high quality coordinate calculation based on BERNESE software has been implemented and validated. BERNESE software provides also ZTD (zenith total delay) data (Figure 2). The assimilation of ZTD data in ALADIN-Morocco model starts by performing monitoring of locally produced ZTD data. The assimilation of ZTD produced from Moroccan network and IGS data generates humidity increments from surface to above 500hPa. Figure 3 shows humidity increment at 850 hpa, figure 4 at 700hPa. The relative humidity increment reaches 18% in the north of Morocco, well covered by GPS data as shown in Figure 1. The increment in the south of Morocco corresponds to data from DAKHLA (DAKH) GPS station. ALBACHIR cy36t1, 10 Km, 60 l AROME Nord of Morocco 1.3 KM 90 levels

14 Operations: operational system upgrade Enlargement of the Portugal Portuguese Mainland geographical domain Increase of number of levels (46->60) Frequency of daily runs ALADIN/ATP AROME/PT2 AROME/AZO Verification: Historic scores for Portuguese Mainland AROME/PTG AROME/IBE AROME/MAD Score: RMS Parameter: 2m Temperature (ºC) Stations: 21 RMSE 2mAROME Max. Step: Temp. Models: ECMWF ALADIN H+15 Development: standalone surface data assimilation for the computation of a local version of the Canadian Fire Weather Index Spitfire project

15 ALADIN in Poland 2015 achievements Version CY40T1_bf5 operational at IMGW New operational suite model ALARO-1, domain 3156km x 3156km, resolution 4.0km HiRes E-suite model AROME, domain 1600km x 1600km, resolution 1.7km New ALADIN system applications extended support for forecasters, research studies on snow cover over Poland

16 Wind shear profile using SODAR data and ALARO model in collaboration with Romanian Air Traffic Services Administration wind shear is the most troublesome fact during aircraft taking-off and landing generating sources: convection, frontal surfaces, sea or mountain breezes, strong surface wind coupled with local topography, mountain waves or low level temperature inversions. low level wind shear for Bucharest Otopeni airport study non conventional data, particularly: - SODAR registrations (SOnic Detection And Ranging system) wind shear profile evaluation: statistical approach Statistical approach: - using SODAR (Elizabeth Walls, and Niels LaWhite, SODAR and Extrapolated Tower WindShear Profile Comparison in Various Topographic Conditions, EWEC2009 Marseille, 2009 ) 3 month period (May - July 2014) statistics α power law share exponent describes the shape of the wind shear profile: low α - little shear (wind speed does not drastically change) high α - large increases in wind speed z Uz U ref z ref mobile Doppler SODAR registrations (PCS Metek) - the model has a more logarithmic profile; - underestimates the wind shear (systematic error; the lowest error for July 2014 convective activity) - comparable diurnal cycle α

17 Slovenia First case studies confirmed the positive impact of atmosphere-ocean coupling ALADIN model profits from better sea temperature. uncoupled coupled Assimilation of GPS moisture information initial studies, using E-GVAP and Slovenian GPS data Technical implementation was fast thanks to experiences from other countries.

18 Step forward in collaboration on code and system: common HARMONIE system Working Week 9-13/11/2015, Bratislava, 17 participants (8 ALADIN, 9 HIRLAM) Common topic: SURFEX Reproducibility of T and H code versions (ALARO OK, AROME??) Conclusions and future plans: Common WW productive & useful => meet regularly (yearly) aiming at one common topic + flexible general tasks Next WW in spring addressing H and T reproducibility and revisiting HARMONIE as a tool for common validation Q? of handling of bugfixes for the code export versions to be tackled Q? of configurations 2be tested during phasing (+ODB example)

19 National Institute of Meteorology (INM) - Tunisia Parallel Suites Models installed on the HP research computer ALADIN Model version Spatial Resolution Vertical Levels Boundaries Time step CY38t1_bf.03 AROME CY38t1op2 Developing a new Numerical Weather Forecast Verification System NWFVS HARMONIE General Scheme CY38t1_bf km 2.5 km 2.5 km Products Examples ARPEGE ARPEGE ALADIN 450 s 45 s 60 s Configuration of AROME-Tunisia 1.3 km (CY38t1, Coupled to ARPEGE 10Km, Time step 45s,90 vertical levels) Installation of the cycle 40t1_ bf.05 on HP computer Models Comparison based on situation of interest (convective systems, floods, )

20 TURKEY Meteorological Applications (developed by Turkish ALADINers) ROAD FORECASTING SYSTEM Route can be selected through cities PHP and PostgreSQL based on ALARO model outputs A new Dynamic SKEW-T Log P Diagram Fully interactive interface can be used for updating model fields forecasters are able to add/remove layers various stability indices, hodograph, contrail, icing levels and potentials, vertical wind indices and values are recalculated after modification every

21 Quality monitoring The APMT has been developed in the past MOU4 span We now produce these type of plume (anonymous) plume score (ex.: T2m and wind speed left). This can be seen a collective score without comparing the applications. The documents are available for the Local Team Managers (LTMs)

22 For this year Strategy meeting (new document needed by 2017) Strategy should be discussed by PAC! A meeting is planned end of April to prepare Material for discussion in PAC to write a new chapter: Current status. Focus on main issues: data assimilation new activities (chemistry, fog,...) Have common meeting with the HIRLAM Council for those who will be present in ECMWF? Content to be established now.

23 In Memory of Jean-François Geleyn