Po-Hsiung Lin 1 Chun-ChiehWu 1 Kun-Hsuan Chou 2. National Taiwan University. Chinese Culture University

Transcription

1 Operational review on the 10-year ( ) typhoon surveillance flight observation with dropsondesand their statistical feature of outer core in western Pacific region Po-Hsiung Lin 1 Chun-ChiehWu 1 Kun-Hsuan Chou 2 1 National Taiwan University 2 Chinese Culture University

2 OUTLINE Part I: Phases of DOTSAR Project Operation Flow of DOTSTAR Part II: Some Statistics Numbers (2003~2012) Characteristics of Typhoon Outer Core eye crossing flights and Inner core of typhoon Summary and next step

3 Phases of DOTSAR Project Pre-Phase: 2002 summer (visiting NOAA/RHD, AOC) Phase 1 : (NTU, supported by NSC) Phase 2: (NTU, supported by CWB TPARC ITOP) Phase 3: 2013~ (TTFRI, supported by CWB)

4 Pre-Phase: 2012 NOAA/RHD, NOAA/AOC/G4 Atlantic 2002 TD EDOURAD TD FAY

5 Phase 1 : Funding support by NSC Airplane owners: Japan Diamond Air Service, Taiwan AIDC AIDC ASTRA Jet AVAPS setup Interface for flight path making (Virtual Basics, Windows-Based) Onboard flight-aid software (NTU-Madonna, NCAR-ASPEN) 1 st test flight: May 23, st typhoon mission: Dujuan(Sept. 1, 2003) ASTRA (Gulfstream 100)

6 Windows Interface for flight path making (Virtual Basics) Flight domain Naha FIR Philippines FIR

7 Operation Flow of DOTSTAR DB 5~3 days Storm Watch (CWB, NTU) DB 3~2 days Flight path making (NTU) Flight plan sending to NAHA, Philippines, HK FIR (AIDC) DB: Day Before DA: Day After DB 2~1 days Crews Call (NTU) Decision making (Go or not) (NTU+CWB) DB 5~2 hrs Ground transportation Taipei---Taichung (NTU) DB 2~1 hrs Final ground check (AIDC + NTU) DB 1hr Mission + Weather briefing (AIDC + NTU) DA 0~6hrs Drop + onboard code editing + voice communication (NTU, AIDC, CWB)

8 ASTRA (Gulfstream 100) System Engineer RD94 dropsonde AVAPS operator Code editor Launcher + PI (visitor)

9 pilots gate Satcomm Code editor internet SE launcher PI / Visitor AVAPS operator toilet

10 Onboard data processing Astra Jet flight Information RD94 dropsonde in-air data Pilot console AR-429 Bus-Card Madonna( ) (realtime airborne and dropsonde data ploting& diagnosis system ) Britney (2007~) (Bright tool for onboard enjoy) NTU AVAPS (Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System ) ASPEN (Atmospheric Sounding Processing Environment ) DCF (Data Compress and FTP sending ) Vaisala NCAR NTU Satcomm FTP TTFRI CWB

11 Phase 1~ e-taiwan Film by Government Information Office 2008 T-PARC 2008 National Geography TV program 2009 NSC-50 th film program 2010 ITOP 2012 Follow me TV children program 2013 Technical transfer from NTU to TTFRI

12 Some Statistics Numbers ( ) Dropsonde: 946/1051 (10% bad, most of this number contributed by old RD93 dropsonde before 2009) Flights: 64 TY : 49

13 Dropsondeimpact study by NCEP GFS TCs (35 cases) Improvement of track error 12~18% The case-averaged track error statistics of DOTSTAR cases at every 24-h forecast time for different periods. Bars represent the case-averaged track error of control (NCEP-O) and denial (NCEP-N) forecasts (in km). The solid line indicates the case-averaged track error improvement (in %) and the dashed line the number of cases in each forecast time. The single (double) asterisk shown on the abscissa indicates that the forecast error difference between the control and denial runs is statistically significant at the 90% (95%) confidence level. (Chou et al.,2011)

14 Dropsonde impact study by CWB-TWRF TCs (34 cases) Improvement of track error ~8% TWRF_45_DP 244 track errors (km) TWRF_45_NODP (34) 12 (34) 24 (34) 36 (32) 48 (30) 60 (28) 72 (24) 221 forecast hours (case no.) 增加 dropsonde 資料 34 個案,TWRF 平均颱風路徑誤差改進 7.9% 鄭浚騰, 陳得松, 蕭玲鳳, 黃康寧, 洪景山, 馮欽賜,Xiang-Yu Huang, HongliWang, 葉天降 (2013, 天氣分析與預報研討會 )

15 Some Statistics Numbers ( ) Distance to eye / dropsonde number km (inner core) / km (outer core) / km / 399 > 500 km / 216 Target observation for sensitivity regions

16 Characteristics of Typhoon Outer Core Tangential velocity DR UR DL UL 1100m DL: shallow and small DR: deep and larger UR: maxi wind at ~1100m height and 1.4 times more than DL

17 Characteristics of Typhoon Outer Core Tangential velocity (UR) DR UR DL UL Typhoon intensity defined by CWB 1100m light : strong (1 : 1.4 )

18 DR UR DL In-situ measurement of wind speed by Aerosondein Typhoon Longwang2005 (Lin and Lee, 2008) UL

19 Characteristics of Typhoon Outer Core Relative Humidity DR UR DL UL 600m Compared with wind field, moisture profiles are more symmetric in outer core of typhoon

20 DR UR Characteristics of Typhoon Outer Core Relative Humidity (UR) DL UL 500m light : strong (1 : 1.03 )

21 DR UR Characteristics of Typhoon Outer Core Virtual Potential Temperature DL UL 500m Compared with wind field, thermal profiles are more symmetric in outer core of typhoon Unstable level height is about ~ 500m height

22 DR UR Characteristics of Typhoon Outer Core Virtual Potential Temperature (UR) DL UL 500m Stability below 500m in different intensity of typhoon needs more study

23 eye crossing flights and Inner core of typhoon *2003 Melor N S N S N S

24 Comparison of vertical profiles between Inner core and outer core lower and stronger windshear + more humid

25 Summary and next step tangential wind : maximum speed close to 1000m height and asymmetric in quadrants (stronger at UR, weaker at DL) humidity : more symmetric than wind field The profiles in different intensity of typhoons are under studied. More data from inner core should be collected DR UR DL UL

26 Summary and next step DORIS: A mini AXBT(airborne XBT) in same size of RD94 dropsonde is under developed by NTU, TORI and TTFRI DORIS will be dropped from ASTRA after RD94 to measure OCPI (OceanCoupling Potential Index) for typhoon intensity study

27 Questions? Any possibility to have typhoon joint flights among western Pacific countries? Joint Program for Western Pacific Typhoon Observation (JP-WPTO)?