With Steve LaNore, CBM December 28, Storm Irony: Taylorville Tornadoes the School Mascot in Town Ravaged by EF-3

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1 With Steve LaNore, CBM December 28, 2018 Storm Irony: Taylorville Tornadoes the School Mascot in Town Ravaged by EF-3 Most folks are plotting their Christmas buying strategies in early December cyber or brick and mortar? Garage sale (just kidding) or new? Meanwhile, folks in Taylorville, Illinois sadly spent a good bit of their December cleaning up from a devastating tornado laying a heavy hand to the city of 11,000 on December 1. This was an EF- 3 quite uncommon for December, and the strongest to affect the immediate Taylorville area since The supercell thunderstorm producing this tornado tracked for 11 miles across the city, generating a funnel that produced 155 mph winds a strong EF3. The Christian County Emergency Management Agency said 506 structures were damaged by the tornado, 34 were destroyed and 66 had major damage. Of special irony is the name of the high school mascot - Tommy Tornado. 26 people were injured inside a half-mile wide damage path / WCIA

2 However, townspeople made the best of an unfortunate naming coincidence as members of the high school student body, athletes and coaches banded together with other citizens to clean up the disaster zone. Note the T (Taylorville Tornadoes) logo on the girls basketball coaches sweatshirt in the image below. You just can t make this stuff up! A Taylorville High School student and the basketball coach help clean up / Crystal Thomas / State Journal-Register A tornado-ravaged portion of Taylorville with some homes completely leveled / Tony Reid / WCIA

3 Scary: The strongest tornado to ever strike the Taylorville area (since good records began in 1950) / Joe Crain This Taylorville industrial park left in pretty bad shape / WCIA Taylorville wasn t the only place visited by a December scrooge form the sky. At least 18 tornadoes skipped cross Illinois and Missouri that day, they in total produced hundreds of millions in damage, killed one and injured 26.

4 December Tornado Outbreak Scrapes Through Navy Base The next day, this same early December storm system got off to a rip-roaring start in the southeastern U.S. as a half-dozen tornadoes spun up across southern Georgia on December 2; as we saw in Taylorville, one of these reached EF-3 status with measured winds of 144 mph as it crossed Kings Bay Naval Submarine Base. It was on the ground for seven and a half miles, and up to a half mile wide along its path. The twister injured four people, including two sailors who were thrown from a patrol craft; it did only minor damage to the King Bay Naval Base. A search of weather records since 1950 shows it s the strongest tornado on record in this portion of Georgia or neighboring north Florida. Fun fact: Kings Bay is home to some of the U.S. arsenal of Ohio-Class nuclear-missile-equipped submarines. An EF-3 tornado, the strongest on record in this area, near Kings Bay base / WJAX-TV Washington State Tornado: Is this winter, or what? Good Grief Charlie Brown!!! The National Weather Service (NWS) in Seattle confirmed that a December 18 th tornado hit Port Orchard, about a half hour southwest of Seattle, and that it was an EF-2. The NWS said it is the strongest tornado to hit Washington State since Records also show it s one of only 16 strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) to EVER hit the state. An unusually warm weather system helped set the stage for this tornado, the high temperature of 54 degrees may not sound like much but it tied the record for the date from 2004, a year which also featured an El Nino winter. As for the twister, it was a respectable one with estimated wind speeds of mph, and was on the ground for about a mile and a half. Dozens of structures suffered moderate to major damage:

5 Winds over 100 mph leave this home severely mauled / KOMO-TV Great shot of the Port Orchard tornado in action-notice the chunks of debris in the air / Aurora Day

6 Same tornado clobbering the local Wal-Mart: There s a sale on rubble! (No one hurt) Note the swirl of trees just above the second diamond from the right, a classic tornado signature. National Weather Service radar showed debris from the tornado, things like roof shingles, pieces of drywall and small tree limbs, hoisted 6,000 feet into the air. You can make a pretty strong argument this was an El Nino tornado, with an unusually warm atmosphere in place underneath a very strong jet aloft. In fact, several other past Washington State tornadoes happening in December were in El Nino years. And, this is probably even more a sign of things to come over the southern U.S. as we get deeper into winter and El Nino gets a bit stronger.

7 From severe damage to just a few missing shingles all in a 100-yard area, a phenomenon often seen in tornadoes. Notice the board sticking out of the house in the upper right of photo. Bad news! / KOMO-TV So Why all of these Tornadoes? The barrage of December severe storms is a classic signature of an El Nino winter when the southerly jet is stronger than usual. One cannot blame every winter-time severe storm on El Nino, but it s a pattern which favors above-average numbers of severe weather events across the south. We ve see this most winters when there s an El Nino, and this December saw almost twice the normal number of tornadoes, 35 twisters versus 20 for a normal December.

8 El Nino Refresher A quick refresher, El Nino is when the waters of the eastern Pacific become warmer than average; this additional heat added to the atmosphere energizes the southern jet stream and increases evaporation, making for warmer and wetter conditions over the southern tier of states. NOAA says there s essentially a guarantee of an El Nino (95% chance) through the winter and a high chance of it continuing until mid-spring. Mild and wet weather from California to Texas and Florida, (see map above) with colder weather and snow across New England is the typical result. The Great Lakes tend to be drier than normal as does the Pacific Northwest. You might recall the huge Rowlett, TX tornado, which took place during the intense 2015 El Nino; the Lone Star State is not immune to El Nino severe weather (and flooding). In fact, a 1991 El Nino produced record flooding in central Texas and we need to be aware of a greater than average flood risk over the entire southern U.S. this winter. Luckily, this Nino is only half as strong as 2015 s so the effect will tend to be less severe but there s no guarantees. For California, the welcome rainfall forecast brings a dire threat of major mudslides; thousands of square miles have lost their natural erosion control due to burn scars, and we know how bad it can be as we saw after the Santa Barbara County mudslide killed 21 people last Jan. 9 th, And, there s really nothing that can be done about it except to get out of the way Highlights: Here are the Numbers Last year (2017) was one of the most expensive on record for disaster insurers with several major hailstorms including an epic American record hailer in Denver, three huge hail events in Texas and two severe hurricanes (Harvey and Irma). Collectively, these and several smaller events racked up about $200B in losses in the U.S. And there were the fires that seem to ravage California every year doing so in 2017 as well, totaling $5 to $10 billion. That was But, this year (2018) was no picnic: >>> The Camp and Woolsey fires wrought havoc to the tune of over $20B in California with a combined total of 15,000 homes and 4,000 other structures destroyed. Eighty-five people perished in the Camp fire which essentially reduced Paradise, a city of 26,000 to ashes. It s the deadliest fire in California history. >>> The Carr and Mendocino Complex fires earlier in the summer destroyed over 1,500 structures and racked up a damage toll of several billion. >>> Hurricane Florence did a number on the Carolinas and Virginia to the tune of about $30B with extraordinary flooding. Over 40 died as well. >>> Hurricane Michael ran up a tab of $10 billion to $15 billion in insured losses, and was the strongest October hurricane to ever hit the U.S. >>> Two large hailstorms struck Colorado, a $300 million affair in Denver and a smaller one in Colorado Springs. Last year, Denver received the most expensive hailstorm in U.S. history in May, an astonishing $2.3 Billion dollars! >>> Early-year mudslides (Jan 9) in southern California tragically killed 21 people and damaged or destroyed 500 buildings.

9 The immense geographical areas spanned by this year s disasters have kept adjusters hoppin. For instance, consider the California Camp and Woolsey fires that together burned an area larger than the cities of Dallas and Denver combined, and virtually annihilated a town of 26,000 people. Imagine combing through an area that size and having to determine one claim at a time what s what. We re talking thousands of adjusters needed. Geez! There were no catastrophic tornado events during the year from an insurance perspective, in fact only 10 tornado deaths occurred in all of 2018, a VERY low number. Contrast this with the horrible year of 2011 where over 500 people died and insured losses from tornadoes exceeded $10 billion for the year. The 2018 U.S. disaster losses total: according to Zurich-based reinsurance company Swiss Re: $155 billion. That s about 20% less than 2017 but is still a staggering sum. The high-dollar disasters of the past few years can be attributed to ever-increasing coastal development in the case of hurricanes, and uncertain but partial role climate change has taken in the realm of droughts and floods. It s just not normal to see so many destructive wildfires and floods so close together. Some of this is certainly natural variation, but the warming globe is making droughts worse (faster evaporation) while at the same time also enhancing rainfall potential when moist weather patterns take shape. Winter Hot-Spots for Jan-Feb Atmospheric patterns vary and we could see severe weather in Illinois or a snow in Dallas, but what s most likely is the following: >>> Northeastern U.S./southeastern Canada most likely spot for ice/snow storm >>> Arctic outbreaks bring very cold weather to upper Midwest/Great Lakes >>> Severe weather events across the south >>> Mudslides in California, flash flooding into the desert southwest as well In the meantime..happy New Year and stay safe! Take Care, Steve LaNore, CBM