Ministry of Earth Sciences Government of India

Transcription

1 Ministry of Earth Sciences Government of India

2 Background Tropical cyclones are one of the most devastating natural disasters having taken more than half a million lives all over the world in the last five decades. More than 75% of total tropical cyclones over the globe causing the human deaths of 5,000 or more have occurred over the north Indian Ocean during past 300 years. This high vulnerability may be attributed to various factors including geographical conditions and limitations of observations, prediction systems, understanding of physical processes, early warning systems and disaster management processes, apart from the socio-economic conditions of the region. Understanding the patterns of genesis, intensity & movement of tropical cyclones and associated adverse weather like heavy rain, gale wind, storm surge & coastal inundation assumed even more importance in recent years in the scenario of global climate change. In association with an increasing trend in global temperature, it is of interest to examine all the above features of tropical cyclones. In its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed an increase in tropical cyclone intensity across various ocean basins as likely to occur with climate warming. The Indian Ocean region, including the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is of particular concern because of the high population density along its coastlines. Because of the significance of the tropical cyclones to India, the India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India in collaboration with World Meteorological Organization (WMO), takes the initiative to organise the Second International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones & Climate Change during February, 2012 in order to shed light on the scientific basis and the complexities inherent in combating hazardous impacts of tropical cyclones. The first International conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone & Climate Change was held in Muscat, Oman during 8-11 March The conference will bring together leading climate change and tropical cyclone experts, from both the research and operational meteorological environments, to discuss the latest research, including the assessments made by the WMO Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones (CCITC) published in the March 2010 issue of Nature Geoscience. This assessment mentions the likelihood of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some regions over the coming century due to green house gas-induced climate warming. The meeting will further explore this issue along with its impact on coastal populations, specifically in the Indian Ocean region. The purpose of the Conference is to advance the science of climate change impacts on tropical cyclones, particularly for nations surrounding the Indian Ocean. Since adaptation and mitigation are important aspects of the problem, papers are also encouraged on operational Forecasting and Warning Systems in the Indian Ocean region, on societal impact of Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones, on assessment of risk and vulnerability and on disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation for tropical cyclones" Papers are encouraged from scientists and National Hydrometeorological Service representatives from countries located within the Indian Ocean cyclone basins, particularly covering one or more of the topics listed under Theme 3 below. Papers are also encouraged from the international research community, especially on the themes 1 and 2 below. Regional or single-basin historical trend analyses and projections for weather and climate extremes such as cyclone activity are still major challenges for climate science. There are differing views on quality of tropical cyclone data sets for the determination of trends over different ocean basins. Also climate-model tropical cyclone projections vary greatly depending on the climate model used and on the downscaling technique used. The Conference will include a number of Workshop session or Panel discussions to explore these and other issues. It is hoped an assessment statement delineating the major issues will be an outcome of the Conference. It is envisioned that findings and recommendations from the Conference will inform the IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), due in Accordingly the extended abstracts from this conference will be published as WMO conference proceedings.

3 Scientific Themes The main focus of the conference will be on the linkage between tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and climate change. The broad thematic areas of the conference, focused on the Indian Ocean, are as follows: 1. Climate change and tropical cyclone activity over the Indian Ocean Construction, archival, reconstruction of best track and historical data sets Analysis of trends and variability in historical tropical cyclone activity Projections of tropical cyclone activity changes over the 21 st century 2. Tropical cyclone and climate change related physical science themes Climatological Characteristics of Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Past trends and future projections for climate variables closely related to Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activity Relationships between tropical cyclone activity (genesis, frequency, intensity, motion) and large scale climate Status and plans for operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Warning Systems in the Indian Ocean region Recent developments in statistical and NWP modeling for tropical cyclone forecasting. Societal impact of Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Assessment of risk and vulnerability from tropical cyclones 3. Impact of cyclones on the economy, infrastructure and society in individual Indian Ocean countries. Analysis of major cyclone events including societal impacts Vulnerability due to cyclones and changes in cyclone behavior. Historical trend analysis of tropical cyclone landfalls or impacts. Disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation for tropical cyclones". Research on Climate Change Impacts on tropical cyclones affecting that country WMO will be directing invitations to National Hydrometeorological Services in the region with a request to present papers on the third theme. Conference Duration The conference will begin with an opening ceremony in the morning of Tuesday, 14 February 2012 and conclude in the afternoon of Friday, 17 February Post conference field excursions are scheduled for Friday, 17 February 2012 afternoon. These excursions are optional. Important Dates Submission of Abstracts: Acceptance of Abstracts: Submission of Extended Abstracts: Registration: 30 November December January December 2011 Abstract Submission Abstracts are being solicited in the research areas as listed in the scientific themes. The authors are requested to send only original/review contributions on research work related to the themes of the conference. Abstracts should be submitted online and should not exceed 300 words. The last date for submission of Abstract is 30 November Abstracts should be submitted as an Adobe pdf. We recommend single-column format, single-spaced 12-pt font (standard Arial font preferred) and A4 or US letter paper, for ease of reading on-screen. The abstract should contain paper title (Arial 14 pt font), author/s (Arial 12-font) full name (SURNAME/FAMILY NAME to be in CAPITALS), bold name/s of

4 presenter/s, organization/affiliation in Arial 11-pt font italics1. For all presentations, kindly indicate the thematic areas as first and second preference. The language should be English only. Both Oral and poster presentations are solicited. Abstracts will be reviewed by the Scientific Organizing Committee Please Note that there is a maximum of two presentations (including poster) per participant. Presentations will only be allowed by named authors/co-authors. For details kindly visit conference website Registration The registration fee for a participant is US $100 (or equivalent) in any acceptable foreign currency/ INR. Post-graduate student participants will have a reduced fee of US $50 (or equivalent). However, for participants from SAARC and WMO/ ESCAP Panel countries and Indian Nationals, the registration fee is Rs.4000/- and Rs.2000/- for post graduate student participants. Participants should pay the registration fee on the first day of the conference. Payment covers all conference material, lunches, tea/ coffee during breaks and the conference banquet Participation in the excursion is free. Please fill in the registration form online by 31 December Limited support in the form of travel and local expenses will be available to some national students and only local hospitality will be extended to some international students on request basis. Those needing such support, should apply in the allocated column of the online abstract submission form. International Travel Information Regarding visa related queries please contact the local Indian embassy or consulate to make the necessary arrangements. The website of the Indian Embassy New Delhi, India provides information of visa requirements as well as a list of countries with which India has visa exemption agreements. Participants requiring a document (letter of invitation) to support their visa application are asked to send a formal request as soon as possible, but not later than 5 January 2012., via or fax to: Dr.S.D. Attri, Deputy Director General of Meteorology (International Division), India Meteorological Department Lodi Road, New Delhi sdattri@gmail.com Fax: / with copy to: Mr B. K. Bandyopadhyay, Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Services), India Meteorological Department Lodi Road, New Delhi bkbando1705@vahoo.co.in Participants requiring an invitation letter to support their visa application should provide the following information in their request: First Name, Surname, Gender, Father's/Husband's name, Date of Birth, Place of Birth, Nationality, Passport number, Date and Place of issue, Expiry date, Address (including telephone, fax and ), Address and fax number of the embassy or consulate of the Republic of India to which the visa application will be submitted (this is merely for communication purposes since the document will be sent directly to the participant who has submitted a request), fax number or address where the invitation letter should be sent to. Travel & Accommodation As February in India is the peak tourist month and hotels are in great demand, to ensure effective management, early booking is necessary.

5 Every effort will be made to arrange transport to the delegates from the airport to the recommended hotel. Please indicate your flight number, arrival date and time in the registration form. For commuting between the recommended hotel and the meeting venue, transport will be provided by the organizer. Participants are requested to make their own reservation for their hotel accommodation through the following hotels: (i) The Ashok (ii) Hotel Samrat (iii) Hotel Janpath Hotel Name Accommodation Agreed Special Rate Single Room Double Room The Ashok Standard Room 9332/- 9974/- Hotel Samrat Standard Room 8590/- 9232/- Hotel Janpath Standard Room 7306/- 7948/- Please note the following:- Above rates are inclusive of all taxes Check-in & Check-out time is 1200 noon Those who are interested to stay in recommended hotels may kindly register with the hotel by filling up the registration form by downloading the same from conference website: Publication Plan The last date for submission of Extended Abstract is 15 January The Extended Abstracts will appear in Conference Proceedings to be published by the World Meteorological Organization. Due to the large number of manuscripts expected, the Scientific Organizing Committee has set limit guidelines. Extended abstracts must conform to the following standards. Ignoring these may result in the abstract being omitted from the CD, the printed volume, or both. The extended abstract should be in Adobe pdf format. Please ensure that all necessary fonts are embedded within the document. File size should not be larger than 3 Mb (6 Mb for invited speakers). It should contain maximum of 5 pages (8 pages for invited speakers). File name to be author.pdf if there is one author; firstauthor_secondauthor.pdf if there are two authors, or firstauthor_etal.pdf if there are three or more. Author name should be the author s family name. If one author has multiple papers, then append _a, _b etc to the filename. We recommend single-column format, single-spaced 12-pt font (standard Arial font preferred) and A4 or US letter paper, for ease of reading on-screen. Paper title, authors, and so forth as per the guidelines of the abstract. Colour figures are fine, but the printed version will be black and white. Please ensure that your graphics are readable in either format. Exhibition/Sponsorship Manufacturers and distributors of meteorological equipment, the publishers of books, journals and software, other societies and institutions and consulting companies are invited to set up booths to promote their products and services during the conference. Interested companies and other institutions are requested to contact: Mr. B. K. Bandyopadhyay, Chairman LOC Tel : Fax: bkbando1705@yahoo.co.in

6 Venue This International Conference will be hosted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) at SCOPE COMPLEX, Lodi Road, New Delhi IMD was established in 1875 after a disastrous tropical cyclone struck Calcutta in 1864 followed by failures of the monsoon rains in 1866 and IMD serves as the National Meteorological Service of the country and the principal government agency in all matters relating to meteorology, seismology and allied subjects. Cyclone warning is one of the most important functions of the India Meteorological Department and it was the first service undertaken by the Department as early as in 1865 and even before the establishment of the department in Considering the expertise and potential in the field, IMD, New Delhi has been designated as RSMC - Tropical Cyclones by WMO with effect from 1 July 1988 and assigned the responsibility of issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and Tropical Cyclone Advisories for the benefit of the countries in the WMO/ ESCAP Panel region bordering the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, namely, Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. It also acts as Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) for the purpose of international civil aviation as per the requirement of International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). Organisers The conference has two major organising bodies: the India Meteorological Department and the WMO/WWRP Expert Team on climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones. The event is being sponsored by Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India and World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva under World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). However other potential industries and organizations are also invited to sponsor this major event and to participate in the event. Committees INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC ORGANISING COMMITTEE (ISOC) Chairmen: AVM(Dr.) Ajit Tyagi, Permanent Representative of India with WMO, member WWRP/WGTMR Dr. John McBride, Co-Chair ET on CCITC Mr. Tom Knutson, Co-Chair ET on CCITC Members: Dr. A.K.Srivastava, member ET on CCITC Dr. B.N. Goswami, member WCRP Dr. Chris Landsea, member ET on CCITC Dr. Frank Marks, HRD/NWS/NOAA Dr. Greg Holland, member ET on CCITC Dr. Isaac Held, member ET on CCITC Dr. James Kossin, member ET on CCITC Prof. Johnny Chan, Chair WGTMR Tropical Cyclone Panel Prof. Kerry Emanuel, member ET on CCITC Dr. Masato Sugi, member ET on CCITC Prof. S. K. Dube, IIT Delhi, India Prof. U. C. Mohanty, IIT Delhi, India Dr. Yihong Duan, Chair, WGTMR Convener: Mr. B.K.Bandyopadhyay, IMD, India NATIONAL ORGANISING COMMITTEE (NOC) Chairman: AVM(Dr.) Ajit Tyagi, IMD Members: Dr. Akhilesh Gupta,DST AVM B.C. Pant, I A F Mr. B.K. Bandyopadhyay,IMD Dr. K.J. Ramesh, MoES Dr. L.S. Rathore, IMD Dr. P.K. Pal, SAC Ahmedabad Dr.(Mrs.) Swati Basu, NCMRWF Prof. S.K.Dube, IIT Delhi Dr. S.S.C.Shenoi, INCOIS Prof.U.C. Mohanty, IIT Delhi Dr. V.K. Dadhwal, ISRO Comde.V.S. Babelay, Indian Navy Convener: Dr. M.Mohapatra, IMD

7 LOCAL ORGANISING COMMITTEE (LOC) Chairman: Mr.B.K.Bandyopadhyay, IMD Co-Chairman: Prof. U.C. Mohanty, IIT Delhi Members: Sh. Anil Devrani, IAF Sh. A.D. Tathe, IMD Dr. A.P. Pandey, IMD Mr. B.P. Yadav, IMD Mr. Bikram Singh, IMD Mr. Charan Singh, IMD Mr. Chatar Singh, IMD Mr. D.K. Malik, IMD Dr. D.R. Pattanaik, IMD Capt. D Vijay Kumar, Indian Navy Mr. Gajendra Kumar, IMD Dr. Naresh Kumar, IMD Dr. O.P. Singh, IMD Mr. R.C.Vashistha, IMD Dr. R.K. Jenamani, IMD Dr. S.D. Attri, IMD Dr. S.C. Kar, NCMRWF Dr. Someshwar Das, NCMRWF Dr. T.N. Jha, IMD Convener: LOCAL ORGANISING SUB-COMMITTEES Scientific and Publication Committee Prof. U.C. Mohanty, IIT D elh i(ucmohanty@gmail.com) Media, Publicity and Exhibition Committee Mr. B.P.Yadav, IMD (bp_yadav4@yahoo.com) Visa Committee Dr. S.D.Attri, IMD (sdattri@yahoo.com) Food and Hospitality Dr Rajendra Kr. Jenamani,IMD rjenamani1@yahoo.co.in) Transport and Accommodation Mr. D.K. Malik, IMD (dk_malik@hotmail.com) Local Purchase and Physical Arrangement Mr. Charan Singh, IMD (csingh1964@gmail.com) Secretariat Mr. B.K. Bandyopadhyay, IMD (bkbando1705@yahoo.co.in) Dr. M. Mohapatra, IMD

8 Climate: The climatological data of Delhi during the month of February are given below: Maximum Temperature C Minimum Temperature C Humidity (mean) at 0830 hrs local time 68% Humidity (mean) at 1730 hrs local time 37% Rainfall (mean) 15.0 mm No. of rainy days 1.3 days For More Information: Please visit the Conference webpage: or Contact the Conference Secretariat Cyclone Warning Division India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi Tel. No. : FAX No. : cwdhq2008@gmail.com