7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April 01 May 2012 Noumea, New Caledonia. Wenju Cai
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1 7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April 01 May 2012 Noumea, New Caledonia. Wenju Cai
2 10 ICSHMO Farewell!
3 NPOCE OKMC HOT SPOT ITF MONITORING GAIA Pacific climate change science Programme PCCSP TAO/TRITON
4 Welcome to new panel members: Ken Ando, Sang-Wook Yeh, Phil Willes Session 1: Western boundary current: dynamics and impacts 09:00 hrs - NPOCE: progress and science highlights (Dunxin Hu) 09:20 hrs - SPICE: progress and science highlights (Alex Ganachaud) 09:40 hrs - TOCS (tropical ocean climate study) western boundary measurements (Ken Ando, JAMSTEC) 10:00 hrs - PANDORA: a multidisciplinary cruise in the Solomon Sea (Sophie Cravatte) 10:20 hrs - OKMC: progress and science highlights (Bo Qiu) 11:00 hrs - Glider observations (Billy Kessler) 11:20 hrs - Enhanced warming along WBSs (Lixin Wu) 11:40 hrs - Multi-Scale Air-Sea Interaction under the East-Asian Monsoon: A "Hot Spot" (Shoshiro Minobe) 12:00 hrs - Discussion: The role of the Pacific Panel in coordination of WBC activities 12:30 hrs - Lunch
5 Chinese cruises (Nov Aug. 2011) since NPOCE inauguration Mooring CTD & Bottles CTD & LADCP Argo Floats GPS Floats China Two sub. moorings (6100, and 3400m) deployed Nov. 2010, retrieved July 2011 and three more deployed to be retrieved Aug 2012; CTD, Argo, drifters, etc. From Dunxing Hu
6 Session 2: Inter-basin linkages 13:30 hrs - The ITF task team, outcomes of the first meeting (Janet Sprintall) 13:50 hrs - The ITF Gateway Program and GAIA (Jae Hak Lee) 14:10 hrs - AAMP activities (Matthieu Lengaigne) 14:30 hrs - Collaboration between the IOC/WESTPAC and PP (Wenxi Zhu) 14:50 hrs - Discussion: East Pacific research, where to start? (All) 15:10 hrs - Discussion: The role of PP in coordination of Inter-basin activities (All) Session 3: ENSO 15:50 hrs - TAO/TRITON ENSO observing system update (Ken Ando) 16:10 hrs - Recent ENSO research activities (Sang-Wook Yeh) 16:30 hrs - ENSO in CMIP5 (Wenju Cai for Eric Guilyardi) 16:50 hrs - ENSO task team (all) 17:10 hrs - El Niño influence on tropical wave climate: Present and Future (Matthieu Lengaigne) 17:30 hrs - Report from MJO, WWB, and ENSO analyses (Yukari Takayabu)
7 The future of ENSO From Eric Gualyardi As in CMIP3, CMIP5 CGCMs exhibit a range of behaviour for ENSO variability in the future simulations, some showing an increase, others a decrease 7 and some no change (Collins et al. 2010, Vecchi and Wittenberg 2010).
8 Session 4: South Pacific climate circulation, change, and projection 09:00 hrs - Highlight from PCCSP (Scott Power) 09:20 hrs - Climate projections in the South Pacific (Alex Sen Gupta) 09:40 hrs - French research Activities in the South Pacific (Christophe Menkes) 10:00 hrs - Regional ocean circulation around New Caledonia: AltiGlideX experiment - Frederic Marin 10:20 hrs - An update on the advancement of the project SPOT, South Pacific Ocean Time-series (Jerome Aucan) 11:00 hrs - South Pacific Research issues - Phil Willes 11:20 hrs - Cumulus convection and double ITCZ in CMIP3 and CMIP5 (Yukari Takayabu) 11:40 hrs - Tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific (Howard Diamond) 12:00 hrs - Discussion: The role of PP in coordination of activities in the South Pacific
9 From Haward Diamond
10 Session 5: Interaction with green programmes 13:30 hrs - An introduction to IMBER and PICES Hiroaki Saito 13:50 hrs - A proposal for future collaboration between CLIVAR and PICES from a PICES WG (Shoshiro Minobe) 14:10 hrs - Western North Pacific Integrated Physical- Biogeochemical Ocean Observation Experiment (INBOX) (Toshio Suga) 14:30 hrs - Discussion Development of collaborative projects between PP/PICES/IMBER 15:00 hrs - Coffee break Session 6: Panel business Review papers Action items 17:00 hrs - Meeting closes
11 Two directions of importance of physical ocean Atmosphere Air-sea interaction ocean physical conditions Marine ecosystems Biogeochemic al cycles From Shoshiro Minobe
12 Important oceanic physical processes For the on-going changes of green ocean, a number of physical processes are important: ocean vertical and horizontal mixing associated with the mixed layer horizontal and vertical advection due to sub-mesoscale and meso-scale phenomena the transports of jets, striations and currents water mass formation and ventilation air-sea interaction over SST fronts and eddies
13 Pacific Panel Major activities since our last meeting Indonesian Throughflow Task Team (jointly with IOP) meeting, March 2012, Indonesia 7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April 01 May 2012 Noumea, New Caledonia. Strengthen links and develop activities with PICES and other green programmes ENSO in CMIP5 Coordination of NPOCE, GAIA, ITF, OKMC, SPICE and PCCSP (PACCSAP), plus MIXET Gateway, hotspot
14 Pacific panel Science Highlights ENSO and climate change (two papers) WBCs response to global warming (Wu et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change, published) The South Pacific Convergence Zone under greenhouse warming (Cai et al, 2012, Nature)
15 ENSO diversity : Different flavors of El Nino Changes in ENSO properties under the global warming
16 Pacific panel Science Highlights ENSO and climate change (two papers) WBCs response to global warming (Wu et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change, published) The South Pacific Convergence Zone under greenhouse warming (Cai et al, 2012, revised)
17 1 Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China 2 CSIRO Marine and Atmosphere Research, Australia 3 Department of Earth, Planetary Science, University of Tokyo, Japan 4 International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, USA 5 Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA 6 NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA 7 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA 8 Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany 9 Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, USA
18 Pacific panel Science Highlights ENSO and climate change (two papers) WBCs response to global warming (Wu et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change, published) The South Pacific Convergence Zone under greenhouse warming (Cai et al, 2012, revised)
19 More extreme swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone due to Greenhouse Warming W. Cai, M. Lengaigne, S. Borlace, M. Collins, M. McPhaden, A. Timmermann, S. Power, J. Brown, C. Menkes, A. Ngari, E. Vincent, M. Widlansky La Niña El Niño Extreme The nonlinearity can be represented by two EOFs When the associated time series are both large and positive, the position of the SPCZ is zonal. How will such zonal SPCZ events respond to climate change? Only eight out of 18 CMIP5 (RCP8.5) models produce the nonlinearity
20 Pacific panel Major future plans/activities ENSO task team, in discussion ENSO in CMIP5 PP and IOC/WESTPAC collaboration/building regional capacity
21 Pacific panel Workshops/meetings planned Decadal climate variability workshop, Qingdao, China, 3-7 Sept NPOCE/SPICE open science meeting, Qingdao, China, Oct ENSO under climate change; and first ENSO task team meeting, Hobart, Australia, January, 2013
22 Pacific Panel Issues and challenges (for input to JSC) TAO return rate Formalise linkage with IOC/WESTPAC
23 TAO Budget Requests TAO budget requests ($M) Transition Transition Transition
24 Whoops! Nature, 24 Sept 2009 (the week of OceanObs09)
25 End
26
27 Capacity building in PCCSP, capacity building visits to partner countries conducted by 37 PCCSP staff to provide training in climate change, data management and climate analysis. Over 500 people reached through climate change science workshops in partner countries. 4 regional workshops, several attachments Publications, brochures Tools and training in: data management climate monitoring climate change science
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