The Earth is NOT Warming in the 21st Century!

Transcription

1 The Earth is NOT Warming in the 21st Century! Yoshiaki FUJII Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN *First presented as Fujii, Y. (2012), The Earth is not Warming in the 21st Century! Proc. MMIJ Spring Meeting, pp , Mar. 27, Tokyo. Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 1

2 Preface Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 2

3 It is a well known fact that the earth is not warming in 21th century. Revkin (2009 in New York Times), Hansen et al. (2012 in NASA Web Site, 2014 from NASA Web Site), Fujii (2012, Annual Meeting of MMIJ), Fujii (2012 in Japanese and 2014, Annual Meeting, Hokkaido Branch, MMIJ),,,,, The global warming did not proceed also in The fact will be reported and the reasons will be explained. Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 3

4 The fact Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 4

5 VEI GST anomaly (K) CO 2 concentration (ppm) Sunspot number Towards Rock Mechanics in 22nd century! As you can see in the 21st century... CO 2 concentration is increasing. GST is not rising. No giant eruptions. The sun is very inactive CO GST Pinatubo Sunspot St. Helens Hudson Year (AD) El Chichon GST:NASA. CO2 and sunspot number: NOAA, eruptions: Smithsonian Museum Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 5

6 Decrease in solar radiation by giant eruptions After Wikipedia, Volcano Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 6

7 The cause? Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 7

8 By Hansen (worked at NASA, originator of the global warming boom) The recent slow down of the global warming is mainly by La Niña. It would be hottest in 2014 by El Niño. It would be even hotter in Hansen et al., 2014 He seems to eagerly wish an intense global warming. Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 8

9 Prediction by Hansen using GCM (the basis of global warming by CO 2 ) is completely inaccurate Black line is the observation Green: Scenario A (much more CO2 emission than reality) Blue: Scenario B (realistic CO2 emission) Pink: Scenario C (much less CO2 emission than reality) Data added to Hansen et al. (2006) Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 9

10 Some scientists predict an imminent ice age. Prof. Judith Curry at Georgia Tech. pointed to long-term cycles in ocean temperature, which have a huge influence on climate and suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. This led some scientists at the time to forecast an imminent ice age. Source: /And-global-COOLING-Return-Arcticice-cap-grows-29-year.html#ixzz2ww0rs1QV atech.edu/ Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 10

11 VEI GST anomaly (K) CO 2 concentration (ppm) Sunspot number Towards Rock Mechanics in 22nd century! I think it's because of the inactiveness of the sun CO 2 GST Pinatubo Sunspot St. Helens Hudson Year (AD) El Chichon Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 11

12 Professionals in Japan (National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and RIKEN (of Dr. Obokata)) are worrying that the sun might hibernate and we will suffer cold period just as the little ice age (Apr. 19, 2012) Present situation Usual sun Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 12

13 National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and NASA also presented that solar activity has been weakening for this 20 years on May 31, Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 13

14 Magnetic field of the sun is weakening. The sunspots will disappear in 2022 if the same situation continues. Ice-Age-years-rare-drop-sunspot-activity.html Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 14

15 Going back further... Solanki et al. (2004) Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 15

16 Sun energy decreases just for 0.07K when the sun is very inactive. But, Solar wind weakening -> Cosmic ray increase -> Cloud increass -> Air temperature drops. Svensmark & Christensen (1997), thin line: cosmic ray count, thick line: cloud area (ISCCP- C2) Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 16

17 Maunder minimum The period when there were almost no sunspots, between 1650 and It snowed to 20 cm in New England in June. No harvest at all and they tried to go to the West. They enjoyed slating on the Thames River. Sumida River in Tokyo froze and they couldn't transport things. Many starvations in Edo era. Tenmei Starvation in 1783, nifty.com/turedure/2012/12/post- 955c.html Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 17

18 Summary Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 18

19 Summary The global warming has been stagnated in the 21st century. The inactive sun would be the main cause. Global warming will start again if the sun recovers. We don't have to reduce CO 2 if the sun remains inactive. We have to even increase CO 2 emission if global cooling occurs. Self-sufficiency ratio of food of Japan is just 38% and Japan is very vulnerable to cold weather. TPP will completely destroy Japanese agriculture and the situation will become much worse. Anyway, we have to carefully watch air temperature and solar activity for a while. People don t see the fact and just say to reduce CO 2 and stop global warming without even thinking are the enemies of the human beings! Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 19

20 Reference Fujii, Y. (2012a), The Earth is not Warming in the 21st Century! Proc. Spring Annual Meeting of MMIJ, pp , Tokyo, Mar. 27 Fujii, Y. (2012b), The Global Warming is NOT Proceeding in 21th Century Proc. Annual Meeting of Hokkaido Branch, MMIJ, pp , Kushiro, June 16 Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 20

21 Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M. and Lo, K. (2012), Global Surface Temperature in 2011, Trends, and Prospects, NASA Web Site, Hansen, J., Sato, M. and Ruedy, R. (2014), Global Temperature Update Through 2013, NASA Web Site, _Temperature2013.pdf Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R. Lo, K., Lea, D and Medina-Elizade, M. (2006), Global Temperature Change, PNAS, Vol. 103, No. 39, doi: /pnas Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 21

22 Revkin, A. (2009), Momentum on Climate Pact is Elusive, New York Times, Sep. 21, 2009 Sokoloff, D. and Nesme-Ribes, E. (1994), Astronomy and Astrophysics, Vol. 288, pp Solanki, S. K., Usoskin, I. G., Kromer, B., Schüssler, M. and Beer, J. (2004), Unusual Activity of the Sun During Recent Decades Compared to the Previous 11,000 years, Nature, Vol. 431, pp , doi: /nature02995 Svensmark, H. & Christensen, E. (1997), Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage - A Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships, J. Atmospheric Solar-Terrestrial Phys., Vol. 59, No. 11, pp Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction! 22