Status SC23 Predictions SC24

Transcription

1 Status SC23 Predictions SC24 Jan Janssens Belgian Solar Section 5 Nov 5

2 Evolution Wolfnumber R Absolute & Smoothed monthly Wolfnumber R Standstill Jul : 17,1 19 Jul : 246 Rmin: May 96 (7,9) Rmax: Jun (125,6) 13 Sep 24 Oct 96: 42 spotless days! 2nd Rmax: Nov 1 (117,4) Oct-Nov 3: NOAA 1486 Max area = 261 MH 4 Jul 5: Rd = Month with last Rd > 1: SC16-23: 27 +/- 1 months till Rmin SC1-15: 42 +/ Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 2

3 Smoothed R: Comparison with SC2, 21 & 22 Smoothed Wolfnumber R Last month with smoothed R > 3: SC16-23: 24 +/- 9 months till Rmin SC2 SC1-15: 4 +/- 13 months till Rmin SC21 SC22 SC Months since smoothed minimum 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 3

4 Number of spotless days (Rd=) Average accumulated number of spotless day / / Months since first spotless day Time min (66) Time min (33) SC1-15 SC16-23 SC24 (Jan 24 - Oct 25) 797 +/ /- 134 Current evolution mimicks SC 1-15! => Very late Rmin (29-21??) 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 4

5 Big Sunspotgroups Phase <,73 Predicted (,73 < Phase < 1) Type SC23 SC 12_22 Number Phase Time interval Chance B -3 3 > 2,74 -,78 Jan4-Jul4 75% 1,85-,92 Mar5-Nov5 9% 1,4-,7 Mar7-Jul7 5% S 6 1 > 1,74-,77 Jan4-May4 5%,8-,81 Sep4-Nov4 25%,89-,91 Aug5-Nov5 25% G 3,5 < 1,75-,78 Feb4-Jul4 15% Grouptype Greenwich NOAA B ig 1 MH 72 MH S uper 15 MH 18 MH G iant 25 MH 179 MH Avg. number of groups,7,6,5,4,3,2,1, * * ** *** * *,7,75,8,85,9,95 1,5,1 Phase of SC (SC23 fictive ending: Oct 26) Year Month NOAA Area Latitude Longitude Area Corr Phase G12_22 1 S12_ ,74, ,75 B12_ ,78 24 R/ , G_SC23 1 S_SC ,81, ,83 B_SC , ,9 # big groups follow predictions well => Rmin in Oct 6? Or not? 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 5

6 CV & flares CV gives somewhat better correlation with MX-flares than Wolfnumber R (resp. 88% vs 81%)! R CV MX-flares 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 6

7 H -prominences & flares 3 H -prominence activity precedes flare-activity by 1-18 months! During SC-minimum, 3-4 prominences on the average visible! Number of CMX-flares Number of Prominences (BAA) Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 7

8 X-flares Apr 81; 13 Mar 89; 12 NOAA5395 (11) Jun 82; 16 NOAA3763 (6) Dec 82; 1 Mar 91; 2 NOAA6555 (7) No X-flares for 3 years!! Till 23, SC23 produced only half as much highenergetic flares as 2 previous cycles! 4 Nov 3: X28 by NOAA 486 Sep 5; 1 NOAA88 (1) Wolfnumber 1-2 X-flares 3-9 X-flares 1+ X-flares Based on chart by D. Hathaway, Science@Nasa 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 8

9 Protonflares # Proton-flares per year Classification Value (USAF) <1 pfu 1-1 1K - 1K 1K-1K Moderate SC23 produced 92 protonflares (of which 6 highly energetic) so far: Previous active SC21 & 22 resp. 55/ & 77/2 Amazing that SC21 produced so little protonflares! SC23 at this stage of the solar cycle is still producing many protonflares! CV-min still 2-2,5 years away (early 27) Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 9

10 New sunspots at high latitudes Appear 1-18 months prior to Rmin at > 2 12 Aug 5 STAR Jan Alvestadt N27E28 => Rmin in Oct 6 +/- 4 months SIDC, BAA, ALPO, VVS, Spaceweather, did not see any sunspots Other areas with high latitude reversed magnetic polarities (and no sunspots ) 21 Aug 5: N26E36 27 Sep 5: S34E2 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 1

11 Polar Faculae (JJ) Smoothed number of polar faculae (f(q)) Jan 97 Jul 99 : Coronal hole development Jan 1 : Polar Magnetic Reversal PF maximum: Still far away and/or much lower than SC23?? PFt Q>=3,5 PFt All Q PFt Q=3,5 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 11

12 Conclusions Status SC23 Cycle minimum expected in 27 (rather than 26) Big groups till (+/-) Jun 6 Groups of SC24 at >2 latitude: 1-18 months till SC minimum Number of spotless days: 5 +/-2?? Polar Faculae: number should increase Maximum +/-1 year around Rmin But not necessary Even during SC-minimum, a couple of prominences will be visible, with gradual increase after R min, also in polar zone 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 12

13 Predictions SC24 Rmax Rank Name Type Technique Tmax Margin Rmax Margin Remarks 1 Schatten physical SODA-index Mid Svalgaard physical Polar magnetic field Lundstedt Stat+Phys Lund Solar Activity Model (Neural n.w.+physics) Own extrapolation 4 Dikpati, Hathaway Physical Meridional flow Calc. Rmax in progress 5 Maris physical Flare energy release during descending SC-phase Low Sunspotnumbers 6 Badalyan physical Coronal Green line (1 years in advance of R) Jan months 5? 7 Kane stat+phys Regression Sunspots-Geomagnetic Index 15? 8 Duhau Stat+phys Non-linear model on Rmax en aa-min 87,5 23,5 9 Clilverd physical Variation of the atmospheric cosmogenic radiocarbon Weak solar cycle 1 Ali Statistics Spectral analysis + neural networks ? 11 Echer statistics Spectral analysis Wang statistics Low and high rising velocity groups Mar months 11,3 18,1 13 Euler statistics MSAFE (advanced McNish-Lincoln) Mar ,8 95% percentile 14 Myung-Hee statistics Statistics + Odd-even cycles Nov months Annual R max 15 Hathaway statistics Statistics on daily, monthly, yearly R Larger than average 16 Ahnert statistics Statistics + Trise-Amplitude relation Nov months 92,3 29,9 Own extrapolation Physical methods 84 +/- 22 Statistical methods 128 +/- 17 Combined 16 +/ Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 13

14 The Sun always has the last word!... 5 Nov 5 Status SC23 - Predictions SC24 14