JKE Ekonomi Kuantitatif
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1 Agka Gilira : UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA Peperiksaa Kursus Semasa Cuti Pajag Sidag Akademik 00/003 April/Mei 003 JKE Ekoomi Kuatitatif Masa : 3 jam Sila pastika bahawa kertas peperiksaa ii megadugi EMPAT BELAS muka surat yag bercetak, Lampira A (Formula) da Lampira B (Jadual Z, t da F), sebelum ada memulaka peperiksaa. Jawab SEMUA soala. Tulis jawapa ada di dalam buku jawapa. Alat mesi hitug elektroik tak berprogram boleh diguaka. Ada boleh megguaka maa-maa ruag yag terdapat pada kertas soala ii utuk mejalaka peghituga ada. Baca araha dega teliti sebelum ada mejawab soala.
2 Agka Gilira : [JKE 316] (a) Sebuah pertubuha politik medakwa pedapata bulaa pekerja asig di sektor perkilaga ialah sekurag-kuragya RM Satu kajia melibatka 36 orag pekerja asig telah dibuat da mi pedapata bulaa sampel ialah RM Sisiha piawai populasi pula ialah RM43.00 (i) Uji hipotesis sama ada dakwaa itu bear atau tidak pada paras keertia a = (8 markah) (ii) Tetuka kebaragkalia terjadiya Ralat I. (1 markah) (iii) Jika kebaragkalia berlakuya Ralat II ialah 0.13, dapatka ilai kuasa ujia. ( markah) (b) Data di bawah meujukka kuatiti da harga utuk barag A, B da C pada tahu 1999 da 001. Barag Bilaga Uit Harga Seuit (RM) A B C Dega megambil tahu 1999 sebagai tahu asas dapatka (i) ideks kuatiti agregat mudah. (ii) ideks kuatiti Laspeyres. (iii) ideks kuatiti Paasche utuk tahu 001. (4 markah) (4 markah) (4 markah)
3 Agka Gilira: [JKE 316] -3- (c) Berika dua kebaika da dua kelemaha apabila kita megguaka : (i) (ii) (iii) aalisis regresi aalisis siri masa ombor idex (4 markah) (4 markah) (4 markah). (a) Satu kajia utuk megetahui prestasi tiga jeis miyak petrol X, Y da Z telah dibuat. Kajia dibuat dega megguaka lima buah kereta yag mempuyai kemampua jarak dalam kilometer yag berbeza utuk setiap liter. Setiap kereta aka diuji dega setiap jeis miyak di bawah keadaa yag sama. Jeis miyak diberika kepada kereta secara rawak. Data ujia adalah seperti berikut. Nilai adalah meujukka kilometer per liter. Kereta X Jeama Miyak Y Z (i) Apakah jeis rekabetuk yag sesuai utuk kajia di atas? (ii) Tulis model yag sesuai utuk kajia tersebut serta adaiaya. (iii) Tulis hipotesis utuk meguji kesa olaha (mi kilometer per liter). (iv) Tulis hipotesis jika ada fkir kesa blok adalah perlu utuk kajia ii.
4 Agka Gilira : [JKE 316] (v) Sekiraya isbah MSĚ' = 31.96, tetuka sama ada terdapat kesa olaha pada paras keertia 5%. Berika kesimpula ada. (b) Sebuah firma telah membuat kajia tetag mi masa barag yag dapat dijual oleh eksekutif pemasaraya dega megguaka tiga kaedah pejuala yag berbeza. Firma tersebut megguaka tiga kumpula eksekutif pemasara da setiap kumpula ii mempuyai empat eksekutif. Sebahagia daripada aalisis kajia adalah seperti di dalam jadual ANOVA di bawah ii. Sumber Darjah Hasil Tambah Mi Kuasa Nisbah F Ubaha Kebebasa Kuasa Dua Dua Olaha a 7 e g Ralat b d f Jumlah c 153 (i) Isika tempat bertada a, b, c, d, e, f da g dega ilai yag sesuai. (ii) Apakah faktor yag dikaji? (iii) Tulis Ho yag sesuai. (iv) Uji hipotesis ada pada paras keertia 5%. (v) Beri kome tetag keputusa F ada itu.
5 Agka Gilira : [JKE (a) (i) Jelaska tetag multikekolieara, masalah yag dikaitka degaya serta lagkah-lagkah yag dapat diguaka utuk megatasiya. (10 markah) (ii) Apakah yag dimaksudka dega heteroskedastisiti? Nyataka masalah yag ditimbulkaya da berika dua ujia yag boleh diguaka utuk meetuka heteroskedastisiti. (10 markah) (b) Output hubuga Y =a+ bx ditujukka di dalam jadual di bawah : Pembolehubah bersadar: Y = 10 R = 0.53 Nisbah F = Aggara Ralat Nisbah Pemboleh ubah Parameter Piawai t Pitasa X (i) Apakah persamaa garisa regresi mudah di atas? (ii) Uji keertia statistik aggara pitasa da kecerua pada paras 1%. (iii) Uji keseluruha persamaa di atas pada paras 1%. (iv) Jika X = 140, berapakah ilai Y yag diramal? (v) Berapakah jumlah ubaha dalam Y yag dijelaska oleh persamaa regresi ii?
6 Agka Gilira : [JKE 316] -6-- LAMPIRAN A FORMULA JKE ;=, ` -1L Ujia Hipotesis Utuk Satu Mi Statistik ujia Z = X ~' 44- Statistik ujia t = X- X= 1_L S/-i- Ujia Hipotesis Utuk Mi Dua Populasi Statistik ujia Z= (x- i TC) (9 1 P) 61 +6, Statistik ujia Z = (X- l -T ) - ( Pa'1 11 ) _S+ -S-- 1 Statistik ujia t = X1 - X - ~ ) (, -1w + ( , + -, ~ dega darjah kebebasa.
7 Agka Gilira : 7 Statistik ujia t = X' (9. - 9', dega (S ca ca / ) X 'X r J darjah kebebasa 1 J ~ l), Statistik ujia z = D - ~ 6)~ Statistik ujia t dega - 1 darjah kebebasa. Regresi Liear Mudah Y; =a+b,x ; ~XY- ~X ~y,. L i =i r=i r= i Ul i=i t=i ~
8 Agka Gifra: [JKE 316] _g_ Ujia Hipotesis Tetag Statistikujiat= b' - Rt Sb~ s _1=1 1 ik.) /- i~x l = t ~ ) 1 SSE/ - _ L C~x l A~ --=1 i=l j:(y-4/(-) S b y (X -X~ ~x -X Pekali Korelasi I : ) Y i ) r= r=t i=t -t T ixy - ( \ _ ~X ~Y r=t t-t ) r-t t-t \ Koefisie Peetua r - Y (Y' - Y ~ RSS I (Y -Y~ 1=1 TSS
9 Agka Gilira : [JKE 316] -9- Regresi Liear Bergada Y = a+b,x, ; +bx ; 1i) 1 xttxr ) (._ xteyr) xsr) - (,- x ;Yr -t ~-t._ ~-t ) r-t b, x) x'- ) Ii) i i) x tr.xi) i=1 i=1 i=l b = X x 1 )(~ X, XI X t_t j_t ( 1 1 ( xtr) ±xi) - I:xttx i) t=1 _I t=t a=y-b,x,-b X Ujia Hipotesis Tetag B~ bertabura t dega - Kdarjah kebebasa. b; - R ; RSS = I ~Y; =t -YI K,;=t I Xi Y E = btlxty+bz xy bkyxky
10 Agka Gilira : [JKE 316] -10- TSS =l(y - Yf =z Y, --=-' i=1 i=1 ESS=~(Y, =TSS-RSS RSS/ k F= Statistik ujia ESS/ - k -1 Ideks Ideks harga Laspeyres Ideks harga Paasche Ideks kuatiti Laspeyres Ideks kuatiti Paasche L P = EPolgoi x10q PP =~j x100 F- p jq ; j Eq;.P. L =-' 0'x100 P Egoi p oi P = EclUP'' 4 Eq.P. X100 Aalisis Varias k TSS =YY (Xi; - R.) ;_ 1 i=t k SSR=1~T? - T=' k SSB = I ~Tz - T.. k ;_l '' k SSW = TSS- SSR- SSB Statistik ujia F(j) _ MSB - MSW dega darjah kebebasa (-1) da (k-1)(-1)
11 Agka Gilira : [JKE 316] -11- LAMPIRAN B ' Sifir Normal Plawal Cotoh : Jika Z = 1.96, maka P(0 4 Z 4; 1.96) Luas Di Bawah Tabura Norml Piawai s M S IM " A A38 A AM AM A WS A A854 A857 A A896 4M 4901 A904 A A AM.M AM A7 ' AIS A934 AM 5 A938 A M AM A446 AM SI.4M AM ' AM A957 A A96 A E A966.E967 AU A969 jm A71 AM A73 A974 3 A974 A973 A A77 A975 A979 AM A930 AM 9 A9a1 A93." AM A4 A955 AM AM AM A987 A937 AM AM AM A959 AM AND 199D
12 Agka Gilira : -1- [JKE 316] Taibs t DIWbAOt1 df t1co tmo tms two taos Z S L353 & Z015 Z571 & V Z365 Z (~ Z Z Z _ Q Sour : *Table of Pace e Poif of Me t-oistr9baa.- Cmputed by id-do Martip0o" Biarrmrf 3(1941): 300. Reproduced by p of t Bioretrra truotees.
13 19 Agka Gilira: -13- [JKE 316] 7WiD ;F4Utrb11Ia m A '3.$ A A z K = Z S3 6m 6.IN 6.Z 6.16 s & M 48 " " A , : Z4 Z ' 3.05 Z8 66, Z Z , '. z98 Z74.59, Z96 Z73 Z C Z9 Z69 Z Z Sum VdRI~F~l~rsdFlfMftsmwwTaO~sbrBtdbpe~CAptar4vralad~YI~Qr~lAw~rdr p~~pil~d0lrl.s~pe~ p~atd 8~ ~ ~L. Or Oirr i 9oya )A~p~d Oy A~io d4r awiars arie pu0i~fsre:
14 E. t m r M00 16.se ; Agka Gilira : [JKE 316]
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