Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Canada: Empirical Analysis Based on Causality

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1 MPRA Muich Persoal RePEc Archive Impact of Exports ad Imports o Ecoomic Growth i Caada: Empirical Aalysis Based o Causality Sayef Bakari of Ecoomics Sciece, LIEI, Faculty of Ecoomic Scieces ad Maagemet of Tuis (FSEGT), Uiversity Of Tuis El Maar, Tuisia. 2 December 2016 Olie at MPRA Paper No , posted 31 December :43 UTC

2 Impact of Exports ad Imports o Ecoomic Growth i Caada: Empirical Aalysis Based o Causality Sayef Bakari PhD Studet, Departmet of Ecoomics Sciece, LIEI, Faculty of Ecoomic Scieces ad Maagemet of Tuis (FSEGT), Uiversity Of Tuis El Maar, Tuisia. bakari.sayef@yahoo.fr Abstract This paper ivestigates the relatioship betwee exports, imports, ad ecoomic growth i Caada. I order to achieve this purpose, aual data for the periods betwee 1990 ad 2015 was tested by usig Johase co-itegratio aalysis of Vector Auto Regressio Model ad the Grager-Causality tests. Accordig to the result of the aalysis, it was determied that there is o relatioship betwee exports, imports ad ecoomic growth i Caada. O the other had, we foud that there is a strog evidece of bidirectioal causality from imports to ecoomic growth ad from exports to ecoomic growth. These results provide evidece that exports ad imports, thus, are see as the source of ecoomic growth i Caada. KEYWORDS: Export, Import, Ecoomic Growth, Caada, Coitegratio, VAR ad Causality. I. Itroductio : The exus betwee exports, imports ad ecoomic growth has log bee a subject of much iterest ad cotroversy i trade literature. The reaso is simple, the mai goal of almost every atio is to icrease GDP ad improve the quality of life for their citizes. Caada is the world's teth largest ecoomy i 2014 with a gross domestic product of $ 1,887 billio. The Caadia ecoomy is strogly liked to the US ecoomy, due to geographic proximity ad commercial treaties. I 2014 Caada exported $448B, makig it the 11th largest exporter i the world. Durig the last five years the exports of Caada have icreased at a aualized rate of 8.4%, from $298B i 2009 to $448B i The most recet exports are led by Crude Petroleum which represets 19.4% of the total exports of Caada, followed by Cars, which accout for 10.1%. I 2014 Caada imported $440B, makig it the 12th largest importer i the world. Durig the last five years the imports of Caada have icreased at a aualized rate of 7.8%, from $302B i 2009 to $440B i The most recet imports are led by Cars 1

3 which represet 6.11% of the total imports of Caada, followed by Crude Petroleum, which accout for 4.77%. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to ecoometrically ivestigate the direct likages betwee trade ad ecoomic growth of Caada, through employig yearly data for the period I particular, this work tries to empirically fid a aswer for the questio of whether exports lead ecoomic growth or imports lead ecoomic growth or ecoomic growth leads exports ad imports to achieve this objective the paper is structured as follows. I sectio 2, we preset the review literature cocerig the exus betwee trade ad ecoomic growth. Secodly, we discuss the Methodology Model Specificatio ad data used i this study i Sectio 3. Thirdly, Sectio 4 presets the empirical results as well as the aalysis of the fidigs. Fially, Sectio 5 is dedicated to our coclusio. II. Literature Survey May research works exist that examies the causal iteractio of export, import ad ecoomic growth. Isca, Tala (1998) aalyzed the effect of trade opeess o total factor productivity growth for Mexica maufacturig idustries for the period 1970 to The results of the GMM estimatios showed that trade have positively affected o productivity growth. Fracisco ad Ramos (2001) ivestigated the Grager-causality betwee exports, imports ad ecoomic growth i Portugal over the period The empirical results of the study did t cofirm a uidirectioal causality betwee the variables cosidered. There is a feedback effect betwee exports-output growth ad import-output growth. Bouoiyour, Jamal (2003) ivolved coitegratio ad Grager-causality tests to examie the relatioship betwee trade ad ecoomic growth i Morocco over the period usig the VEC model. The empirical results of the study idicate that both exports ad imports eter with positive sigs i the coitegratio equatio. Also the results show that imports ad exports Grager caused GDP ad imports Grager caused exports. Sarkar (2005) has foud o meaigful relatioship betwee the per capita real GDP ad trade, by employig ARDL Approach to Co-itegratio o two Asia coutries, Idia ad Korea. Mamoo ad Mursed (2006) used data of differet coutries which have differeces i per capita icome by employig istrumetal techique; their study examied the importace of istitutios, trade policies relevat to ecoomic growth. However fidigs of their study showed that opeess measures have isigificat impact o growth. 2

4 Nath ad Mamu (2006) ivestigated the causality betwee trade, ivestmet ad growth through Vector Auto regressio (VAR) framework for the period i Bagladesh. They preseted that trade opeess has promoted ivestmet i Bagladesh. Although study suggested that growth causes trade but this study foud little evideced that trade affectig ecoomic growth i Bagladesh. Fullerto, Thomas M., Jr. Kababie ad Boehmer, Charles R. (2012) ivestigated the exus betwee exports, imports ad ecoomic growth i Mexico for the period , by usig causality test ad vector error correctio methods, show that imports play a more critical role tha exports do for ecoomic growth i Mexico. Mayasa Mkubwa Hamad & Burha Ahmad Mtegwa & Stabua Abdul Babiker (2014) aalyze the effect of trade liberalizatio o ecoomic growth i Tazaia. The empirical fidigs idicated that trade opeess had a positive ad sigificat effect o ecoomic growth i Tazaia Adrews (2015) examied the relatioship betwee export, import ad GDP for Liberia, usig historical data from 1970 to The study cofirmed the existece of bidirectioal causatio betwee GDP ad imports ad ui-directioal causatio betwee exports ad GDP ad exports ad imports. The results showed that Liberia is ot drive by exports aloe but rather a mixture of exports ad imports, with the latter havig a log-ru impact. Saaed ad Hussai (2015) foud uidirectioal causality betwee exports ad imports ad betwee exports ad ecoomic growth i Tuisia for the period from 1977 to Accordig to them growth i Tuisia was propelled by a growth -led import strategy. Imports are thus see as the source of ecoomic growth i Tuisia. Bader S.S. Hamda (2016) aalyzed the effect of exports ad imports o ecoomic growth i the Arab coutries durig the period 1995 to The study used pael data approach i 17 coutries: (Jorda, Uited Arab Emirates, Bahrai, Tuisia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Suda, Oma, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebao, Egypt, Djibouti, Mauritaia, Morocco, Yeme ad Palestie). The outcome idicates that exports ad imports have positive effect of ecoomic growth. Masoud Albima Md ad Suleima NN (2016) ivestigated the exus betwee exports, imports ad ecoomic growth i Malaysia, usig aual data for the period Coitegratio aalysis, VAR ad Grager causality tests were employed i the empirical aalysis. The results show that there is a causal relatioship from exports to ecoomic growth ad from exports to imports. 3

5 III. Data ad Methodology Our ivestigatio starts by studyig the itegratio properties of the data, coductig a systems coitegratig aalysis, ad checkig Grager causality tests. The data are aual Caada observatios uttered ad expressed by atural logarithms for the sample period ruig from 1990 to Data were sources from World Developmet Idicators (WDI), which icludes logarithm of real GDP measure of ecoomic growth, logarithm of exports of goods ad services (Curret US$) ad logarithm of imports of goods ad services (Curret US$). Early empirical formulatios tried to capture the causal lik betwee exports ad GDP growth by icorporatig exports ito the aggregate productio fuctio (Balassa, 1978; Sheehey, 1992; Gügör Tura, 2014; Rummaa Zaheer, 2014; Afaf Abdull J. Saaed, 2015). The augmeted productio fuctio icludig both exports ad imports is expressed as: GDP t = f(exports, imports) (1) The fuctio ca also be represeted i a log-liear ecoometric format thus: log (GDP) t = β 0 + β 1 log (exports) t + β 2 log (imports) t + ε t (2) Where: - β 0 : The costat term. - β 1 : coefficiet of variable (exports) - β 2 : coefficiet of variables (imports) - t: The time tred. - ε: The radom error term assumed to be ormally, idetically ad idepedetly distributed. The empirical methodology used i this study is i two stages ad is to determie the degree of itegratio of each variable. I the ecoometric literature several statistical tests are used to determie the degree of itegratio of a variable. The test that will be used as part of this study is testig Augmeted Dickey-Fuller (ADF). Oce the order of itegratio of the kow series is determiate, the ext step is to review the possible presece of coitegratio relatioships that ca log exist betwee the variables. This aalysis will be followig the coitegratio test procedure of Johase (1988) more effective tha the two-step strategy of Egle ad Grager (1987) whe the sample is small ad the high umber of variables (before the coitegratio test, we look for the umber of delays from the 4

6 optimum choice criterio of use SC). If there are coitegratig relatioships we will use the VECM model, if o oe applies the VAR model. Fially, we apply Grager causality test. The geeral form of ADF test is estimated by the followig regressio: ΔY 1 = a + βy t 1 + i=1 β 1 ΔY i + ε t (3) The VAR-based coitegratio test usig the methodology developed i Johase (1991, 1995) is described below: Cosider a VAR of order p Y t = μ + Δ t Y t 1 + +Δ p Y t p + ε t (4) If the ecoomic variables are ot coitegrated, we ca proceed to use the Vector Autoregressio (VAR) represetatio. This VAR ca be rewritte as follows: p 1 ΔY t = μ + η Yt 1 + i=1 τ 1 ΔY t 1 + ε t (5) I the absece of coitegratio, the urestricted VAR i first differece is estimated, which takes the followig form: ΔGDP t = i=1 β 1t ΔGDP t 1 + i=1 C 1 Δe t 1 + i=1 d 1t ΔImp t 1 + ε 2t (7) Δe t = i=1 β 3t ΔGDP t 1 + i=1 C 3t Δe t 1 + i=1 d 3t ΔImp t 1 + ε 3t (8) Δ Im p t = i=1 β 3t ΔGDP t 1 + i=1 C 3t Δe t 1 + i=1 d 3t ΔImp t 1 + ε 3t (9) IV. Empirical Aalysis 1. Test of Correlatio I order to determie how strog the relatioship is betwee two variables, a formula must be followed to produce what is referred to as the coefficiet value. The coefficiet value ca rage betwee ad If the coefficiet value is i the egative rage, the that meas the relatioship betwee the variables is egatively correlated, or as oe value icreases, the other decreases. If the value is i the positive rage, the that meas the relatioship betwee the variables is positively correlated, or both values icrease or decrease together. Let's look at the formula for coductig the Pearso correlatio coefficiet value. r = N XY ( X)( Y) [N X 2 ( X) 2 ][N Y 2 ( Y)²] (10) 5

7 Where: - N = Number of pairs of scores - XY = Sum of the products of paired scores - X = Sum of X scores - Y = Sum of Y scores - X 2 = Sum of squared X scores - Y 2 = Sum of squared Y scores Table 1: Pearso correlatio coefficiet value LOG(GDP) LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS) LOG(GDP) LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS) The results of the test of correlatio show the relatioship betwee the variables is positively correlated. Accordig to the correlatio matrix of the variables, it is foud that the depedet variable (PIB) ad the idepedet variable (exports) are positively correlated with a correlatio coefficiet equal to ( ). Thus, if exports icrease by 1%, gross domestic product (GDP) icreases by %. Otherwise, the depedet variable (GDP) ad the idepedet variable (imports) are positively correlated with a correlatio coefficiet equal to ( ). Thus, if imports icrease by 1%, the gross domestic product (GDP) icreases by %. 2. Test for uit root I order to evaluate the degree of itegratio of each variable, we use Augmeted Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test. The results show that all the variables are ot statioary i level, for the first differece we ote that the variable log (PIB) is ot statioary, if we pass to the secod differece we remark that all variables becomes statioary. This forces us to go directly from verifyig if there is a co-itegratio of the variables. 6

8 Table 2: Test for uit root of Log (GDP) Test for uit root i level LOG(GDP) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* statistic % level Test critical 5% level values: 10% level Test for uit root i first differece LOG(GDP) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* statistic % level Test critical % level values: 10% level Test for uit root i secod differece LOG(GDP) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* statistic % level Test critical 5% level values: 10% level Graph 1: Evolutio of Log (GDP) 28.4 LOG(GDP)

9 Table 3: Test for uit root of Log (Exports) Test for uit root i level LOG(EXPORTS) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test statistic t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* % level Test critical values: 5% level % level Test for uit root i first differece LOG(EXPORTS) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test statistic t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* % level Test critical values: 5% level % level Test for uit root i secod differece LOG(EXPORTS) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test statistic t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* % level Test critical values: 5% level % level Graph 2: Evolutio of Log (Exports) LOG(EXPORTS)

10 Table 3: Test for uit root of Log (Imports) Test for uit root i level LOG(IMPORTS) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test statistic t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* % level Test critical values: 5% level % level Test for uit root i first differece LOG(IMPORTS) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test statistic t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* % level Test critical values: 5% level % level Test for uit root i secod differece LOG(IMPORTS) Exogeous: Costat Exogeous: Costat, Liear Tred Augmeted Dickey-Fuller test statistic t-statistic Prob.* t-statistic Prob.* % level Test critical values: 5% level % level Graph 3: Evolutio of Log (Imports) LOG(IMPORTS)

11 3. Lag order selectio criteria Most VAR models are estimated usig symmetric lags, he same lag legth is used for all variables i all equatios of the model. This lag legth is frequetly selected usig a explicit statistical criterio such as the AIC or SIC. Table 5: VAR Lag Order Selectio Criteria VAR Lag Order Selectio Criteria Edogeous variables: LOG(GDP) LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS) Exogeous variables: C Sample: Icluded observatios: 22 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ NA 1.80e e * 5.64e-09* * * * e e * idicates lag order selected by the criterio LR: sequetial modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Fial predictio error AIC: Akaike iformatio criterio SC: Schwarz iformatio criterio HQ: Haa-Qui iformatio criterio It is clear from Table 5 that LR, FPE, AIC, SC, HQ ad HQ statistics are chose lag 2 for each edogeous variable i their autoregressive ad distributed lag structures i the estimable VAR model. Therefore, lag of 2 is used for estimatio purpose 10

12 4. Coitegratio aalysis ad VAR estimatio Table 6: Coitegratio Test Sample (adjusted): Icluded observatios: 23 after adjustmets Tred assumptio: Liear determiistic tred Series: LOG(GDP) LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS) Lags iterval (i first differeces): 1 to 2 Urestricted Coitegratio Rak Test (Trace) Hypothesized Trace 0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigevalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** Noe At most At most 2 * Trace test idicates o coitegratio at the 0.05 level * deotes rejectio of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKio-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Urestricted Coitegratio Rak Test (Maximum Eigevalue) Hypothesized Max-Eige 0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigevalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** Noe At most At most 2 * Max-eigevalue test idicates o coitegratio at the 0.05 level * deotes rejectio of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKio-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Urestricted Coitegratig Coefficiets (ormalized by b'*s11*b=i): LOG(GDP) LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS)

13 Urestricted Adjustmet Coefficiets (alpha): D(LOG(GDP)) D(LOG(EXPORTS)) D(LOG(IMPORTS)) Coitegratig Equatio(s): Log likelihood Normalized coitegratig coefficiets (stadard error i paretheses) LOG(GDP) LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS) Adjustmet coefficiets (stadard error i paretheses) D(LOG(GDP)) ( ) D(LOG(EXPORTS)) ( ) D(LOG(IMPORTS)) ( ) 2 Coitegratig Equatio(s): Log likelihood Normalized coitegratig coefficiets (stadard error i paretheses) LOG(GDP) LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS) ( ) ( ) Adjustmet coefficiets (stadard error i paretheses) D(LOG(GDP)) ( ) ( ) D(LOG(EXPORTS)) ( ) ( ) D(LOG(IMPORTS)) ( ) ( ) It clear from the table 6 that there is o relatioship of coitegratio betwee exports, imports ad Growth i Caada. That is mea that we have to use the Vector Auto-Regressio estimatio. 12

14 Also accordig to these test we fid that exports have a egative effect o GDP however imports have a positive effect o GDP. But we eed to check the sigificace of these variables by VAR method. Table 7: Estimatio of Vector Auto-Regressio Depedet Variable: LOG(GDP) Method: Least Squares (Gauss-Newto / Marquardt steps) Sample (adjusted): Icluded observatios: 24 after adjustmets Coefficiet Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C(6) C(7) R-squared Mea depedet var Adjusted R-squared S.D. depedet var S.E. of regressio Akaike ifo criterio Sum squared resid Schwarz criterio F-statistic Haa-Qui criter Prob(F-statistic) Durbi-Watso stat To check if exports ad imports have effect o ecoomic growth, C (1) must be sigificat, ad the coefficiet of C (1) should be egative for the VAR model to be sigificat. I our case C (1) is sigificat because the value of her probability is (0.0004), which is less tha 5%, but the coefficiet of C (1) is ot egative. So, we ca say that exports ad imports have ot ay effect o ecoomic i Caada. 5. Checkig the quality of the model To check the quality of our model ad to esure the robustess of our estimate, there is a set of tests ad idicators that desigates ad affirms that our work is acceptable or ot. Amog these tests are: R-squared, Probability of Fisher-Statistic, Durbi-Watso test, Serial Correlatio test ad Heteroskedasticity test. 13

15 Table 8: Quality of the model R-squared Prob(F-statistic) Adjusted R-squared Durbi-Watso stat Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlatio LM Test: F-statistic Prob. F(2,15) Obs*R-squared Prob. Chi-Square(2) Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Paga-Godfrey F-statistic Prob. F(6,17) Obs*R-squared Prob. Chi-Square(6) Scaled explaied SS Prob. Chi-Square(6) Diagostic tests idicate that the overall specificatio adopted is satisfactory. The tests performed to detect the presece of Breusch-Paga-Godfrey i the estimated equatio did ot reveal ay problem of heteroskedasticity at the 5% threshold. The R-squared is greater tha 60%, which agrees that our estimate is acceptable. Otherwise the probability of Fisher is less tha 5%, which idicates that our model is well treated. Fially Durbi Watso is icludig betwee 1.6 ad 2.4, which idicates that our model is acceptable. 6. Causality Tests Table 9: Gager Causality Tests Pair-wise Grager Causality Tests Sample: Lags: 2 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob. LOG(EXPORTS) does ot Grager Cause LOG(GDP) LOG(GDP) does ot Grager Cause LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS) does ot Grager Cause LOG(GDP) LOG(GDP) does ot Grager Cause LOG(IMPORTS) LOG(IMPORTS) does ot Grager Cause LOG(EXPORTS) LOG(EXPORTS) does ot Grager Cause LOG(IMPORTS) The results of the Grager causality test are preseted i Table 9 show that imports led to ecoomic growth, ad exports led to ecoomic growth. 14

16 V. Coclusio The aim of this study was to explai the exus betwee exports, imports ad ecoomic growth of Caada durig the period The coitegratio, VAR model ad Grager s causality tests are applied to ivestigate the relatioship betwee these three variables. The uit root properties of the data were examied usig the Augmeted Dickey Fuller test (ADF) after that the coitegratio ad causality tests were coducted. The result shows that there is o relatioship betwee the three variables i Caada. O the other had, we foud that there is a strog evidece of bidirectioal causality from imports to ecoomic growth ad from exports to ecoomic growth. These results provide evidece that exports ad imports, thus, are see as the source of ecoomic growth i Caada. Referece Adrews, A. P. (2015). Exports, Imports, ad Ecoomic Growth i Liberia: Evidece from Causality ad Coitegratio Aalysis. Joural of Maagemet Policy ad Practice. 16(3), 95. Bader S.S. Hamda (2016) "The Effect of Exports ad Imports o Ecoomic Growth i the Arab Coutries: A Pael Data Approach". Joural of Ecoomics Bibliography. Vol.3. Issue.1. Balassa, B., (1978) Export ad Ecoomic Growth: Further Evidece, Joural of Developmet Ecoomics, 5, Bouoiyour, Jamal (2003): Trade ad GDP Growth i Morocco: Short-ru or Log-ru Causality?. Brazilia Joural of Busiess ad Ecoomics, Vol. Vol 3, No. 2 (2003): pp Dickey, D. A. & W. A. Fuller (1979), Distributio of Estimators of Autoregressive Time Series with a Uit Root, Joural of the America Statistical Associatio, 74,

17 Dickey, D. A. & W. A. Fuller (1981) Likelihood ratio Statistics for autoregressive time series with a uit root, Ecoometrica, 49(4): Egle, R. F. & Grager C. W. (1987), Coitegratio ad Error Correctio: Represetatio, Estimatio ad Testig, Ecoometrica, 55, Fullerto, Thomas M., Jr. Kababie ad Boehmer, Charles R. (2012): Iteratioal trade ad ecoomic growth i Mexico. Empirical Ecoomics Letters, Vol. 11, No. 9 : pp Gügör Tura ad Berard Karamaaj. (2014). A empirical study o import, export ad ecoomic growth i Albaia. Academic Joural of Iterdiscipliary Studies. Vol. 3, No, 3, Jue, Hiraya Nath & Khawaja Mamu, "Trade, growth ad wage iequality i Bagladesh," The Joural of Iteratioal Trade & Ecoomic Developmet, Taylor & Fracis Jourals, vol. 16(4), pages Isca, Tala (1998), Trade Liberalizatio ad Productivity: A Pael Study of the Mexica Maufacturig Idustry. Joural of Developmet Studies, Vol. 34, No. 5, pp Johase, S. (1988), Statistical Aalysis of Coitegratio Vectors, Joural of Ecoomic Dyamics ad Cotrol, 12, Mamoo ad Murshed (2006). Trade policy, opeess ad istitutios. The Pakista Developmet Review. 16

18 Masoud Albima Md ad Suleima NN. (2016). The Relatioship amog Export, Import, Capital Formatio ad Ecoomic Growth i Malaysia. Joural of Global Ecoomics. Volume, 4, Issue 2, Mayasa Mkubwa Hamad & Burha Ahmad Mtegwa & Stabua Abdul Babiker, (2014). "The Impact of Trade Liberalizatio o Ecoomic Growth i Tazaia," Iteratioal Joural of Academic Research i Busiess ad Social Scieces, vol. 4(5), pages , May. Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, imports, ad ecoomic growth i Portugal: evidece from causality ad coitegratio aalysis. Ecoomic Modellig. 18(4), Saaed, A. A. J., & Hussai, M. A. (2015). Impact of exports ad imports o ecoomic growth: Evidece from Tuisia. Joural of Emergig Treds i Ecoomics ad Maagemet Scieces. 6(1), 13. Sarkar, Prabirjit (2007), Trade Opeess ad Growth: Is There Ay Lik? MPRA Paper No. 4997, posted 07.November 2007 / 04:22 Sheehey, Edmud J., 1992, Exports ad Growth: Additioal Evidece, Joural of Developmet Studies, Vol.28, No.4. 17