DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY

Transcription

1 MGPHI UMMY Pflugerville Independent chool istrict 1Q14 earn eport from Yesterday Understand oday

2 empleton emographics was engaged to perform demographic research and enrollment projections. ur process involved researching five years of district enrollment data, geo-code student data, review of economic conditions, review of vacant land and housing research. ith our more than 4 years combined experience, we built a very extensive geographic data base. he process creates a detailed analysis of where the students reside and where they attend school. hese patterns, along with economic conditions and research from the housing market, form the basis for the enrollment projections we provide to more than 7 districts throughout the state of exas. 2

3 able of ontents conomic utlook 5 istrict verview 11 Housing Market 17 nrollment Projections Methodology 31 nrollment History 31 thnicity & conomically isadvantaged 31 1 Year Projection otals by Grade evel 33 1 Year Projection otals by ampus 34 ampus evel Maps & Projections ppendix 97 tudent istribution eports ttend Incoming eport eside utgoing eport Planning rea Map & eport istrict omparison Maps thnicity eport by ttend evel Metrostudy Housing nalysis

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5 conomic verview he oil and gas boom continues to be a driving force in not only the exas economy but the national economy as well. Between ctober 28 and June 211, exas created 49% of all new jobs in the United tates. he vast majority of those jobs were either directly or indirectly the result of the state s oil and gas boom. exas is home to the two largest producing oil reserves in the nation. irect employment in the oil and gas industry rose 4% from 27 through 213, as compared to a decline of about 3% in the overall U.. economy. ll the new oil production that has come online since 28 has reduced oil imports by about 5%. ower natural gas prices brought about by the boom in supplies of that commodity have attracted a rush to invest in new plant and equipment among industries that use petroleum products as feedstocks. Products like fertilizers, chemicals, plastics, cosmetics and many more. It also adds jobs to the companies that service or sell products to the industry. Investors Business aily points out that more than 1 new plants and factories in a variety of such industries are planned to come online by 217, and hen all are up and running, another $3 billion will be pumped into GP and 1 million more jobs created. he shipping industry has also benefited greatly from this boom. he Port of Houston surpassed the Port of ew York ity to become the largest export market in the U.. midway through 213. he Port of orpus hristi is also seeing rapid activity expansion and is now shipping more than 4, barrels of agle Ford hale oil per day. il Production by ocation

6 ustin M conomic verview nnualized Job reation (34,4 March 214 year over year) -.9% exas il & Gas Production (Fiscal 1Q14 year over year) verage Home Price ($296,64) -15% 3.7% Unemployment (4.4% March 214 year over year) 5% 4% xisting Home Inventory (2.2 Month s upply) ith nearby ustin being named the fastest growing city in the U.., illiamson ounty is enjoying the growth as well. It was recently named the fastest growing county in the nation by Forbes magazine. he population has grown 7.9% since 21. he county has added 7,7 new jobs over the last 12 months and the unemployment rate is down to 4.6% in that same period. hat is a.9% drop from March of 213. In fact, employment is up 73% since 2, the third highest rate of any county in the country. his economic growth in the ustin M has driven the average home price up 5% and dropped the inventory of homes for sale down to only 2.2 months of supply. 1

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8 exas nrollment rends 213 tate nrollment otal nrollment otal Growth 14, 12, nrollment hange 8, 6, 4, 85,773 78,644 73,685 5,151,925 5,2, 98,273 1, otal nrollment 5,4, 12,145 5,151,925 76,85 76,85 78,78 64,962 4,998,579 5,, 77,261 4,749,571 4,8, 4,6, 4,4, 2, 4,2, 4,, 4,592,849 4,399,19 4,519,164 5,75,84 4,933,617 4,847,844 4,671,493 13

9 egion 13 nrollment rends ank II eander I ound ock I omal I Hays ons I chertz-ibolo-universal ity I Manor I el Valle I ake ravis I ustin I Pflugerville I Hutto I ripping prings I Bastrop I ew Braunfels I anes I ockhart I iberty Hill I Georgetown I lgin I Jarrell I 28/9 nrollment /14 5-Y hange nrollment (8/9-13/14)

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11 ew Housing ctivity Pflugerville I Housing ctivity 6 tarts losings Housing Inventory tarts losings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q otal otal Q14 had the highest first quarter total since 1Q7 with just under 2 starts 1Q14 closes were more than 5 units higher than 1Q13 Inventory stabilized to a healthier 6 month supply of new homes based on quarter closings 22

12 1Q14 losing istribution op 1 ubdivisions - 1Q14 (anked by nnual losings) ank ubdivision Falcon Pointe estcreek (agle Point) Highland Park outh akes at orthtown ommons at owe ane valon pring rails Villages of Hidden ake Blackhawk tar anch nnual tarts Quarter tarts nnual Quarter losings losings

13 verall Housing ctivity By lementary ttendance Zone nnual tarts Quarter tarts nnual losings Quarter losings ot. Inv. V Future B BKH PPFI IG U HIGH PK MUHI H PM PFUGVI IJ IV K PIG HI IMMM I IM Grand otal ,835 MMY Highest activity in the category econd highest activity in the category hird highest activity in the category 26

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15 nrollment nalysis M PJI MHGY empleton emographics uses a detailed methodology in building enrollment projections. First step is to break the district down into small geographic sections called planning areas. hese planning areas are usually established around subdivisions and multifamily areas but major roads and transportation access also play a role in their creation. econd step involves the calculation of housing yields which are calculated from the school district s student data that is carefully geocoded into our mapping software for analysis. hird step involves the review of enrollment history to establish cohort patterns or historical growth rates. Fourth step involves the study of the housing market to forecast new single and multifamily housing units being built within the planning areas established in step one. Fifth step involves review of existing housing to establish regeneration areas based upon the age of the homes. ll of these factors are used to build the ten year enrollment projections at the campus and grade level. M HIY Year (ct.) 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 ther K 1,716 1,656 1,688 1,747 1,671 1st 1,77 1,789 1,746 1,726 1,758 2nd 1,643 1,77 1,816 1,773 1,78 3rd 1,776 1,691 1,788 1,814 1,769 4th 1,634 1,8 1,723 1,84 1,89 5th 1,58 1,677 1,84 1,732 1,775 6th 1,576 1,664 1,697 1,853 1,76 7th 1,628 1,657 1,697 1,72 1,886 8th 1,639 1,694 1,681 1,724 1,74 9th 1,755 1,82 1,7 1,683 1,757 1th 1,618 1,647 1,79 1,684 1,691 11th 1,596 1,548 1,617 1,663 1,687 12th 1,373 1,542 1,576 1,617 1,695 otal 22,6 22,763 23,7 23,347 23,543 Growth Percent % 1.35% 1.2%.84% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year U /HIIY MIY IVG Year (ct.) 29/1 otal 22,6 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 22,763 23,7 23,347 23,543 merican Black or Indian or frican laska merican % Hispanic % ative % sian % hite 4, % 8, % 68.3% 2,4 9.1% 6,491 HG I /HIIY PIG 4, % 9, % 18.5% 1, % 5,89 4, % 1, % 1.4% 1,83 7.9% 5,768 4, % 1, % 94.4% 1,81 7.7% 5,763 4, % 1, % 87.4% 1, % 5,735 % 29.4% 25.5% 25.% 24.7% 24.4% wo or more races % ative Hawaiian/ ther Pacific Islander % 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% %.1%.1%.2%.2% conomically isadvantaged % 1,83 49.% 11,676 12,159 12,314 12,643 tudent ace/thnicity otals M. II/K IV, 87, % HIPI/I, 1816, 46% I, 1752, 8% BK, 4258, 18% M H 1, 852, 4% HI, 5735, 24% HII/PIFI I, 43, % % 52.7% 52.7% 53.7%

16 PFUGVI IP H II 5 FM 132 IM FM B VI Y PK BKH IJ KY IMMM 13 «PFUGVI I U PPFI FM 35 U 11 M F IV K 97 3 PIG PFUGVI HI PM MUHI HIK IM PFUGVI H «HIGH PK FM FM FM «45 «1 IG FM FM 3349 FM 166 FM GIM BV « «29 Hutto I ound ock I Pflugerville I Manor I ustin I 36 G aylor I lgin I lementary Middle chool High chool Ü I Boundary lternative Miles his product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information.

17 MY BUI IG H I BKH IM M M PIG HI H I PM M U I M HIGH PK B IJ PFUGVI U/ IV K PP FI Hutto I ound ock I aylor I Pflugerville I ustin I Manor I G I Boundary lgin I Ü Miles his product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information. 37

18 UG F M K I F J Y YG V H V B H V B B K I G H Y P G Parcels lementary Boundary I Boundary 4 lementary Middle chool High chool lternative K I IM B Y B Y H I V I FI I BU H Y H Y P IY H PP K Y P MP U P M U I Y FM BI B P U I V I MIH V V 2 I K Y VI I G KB V K Y K K M P P I K V K V Y G 1 M I G H H 5 H V U H H 6 7 H H 8 1 H H U G H H 12 IB I V K K B G I G V M G H FI MP U B P IG PF IMMM B PI HI V B U PHI M I PP K K K M K M I V Y GM I M K V P I PFUGVI P U B P Y P H M F MI V I H U H K U BKH K IM B F M M P B P H Y G P IG I PF K H B PKY P FM I G PF IG JUI K G K HU F GH M G Z I Y M P PK P U PF I K H U MY P P H IG G I B Y Y V K K B B V V U M I H BU I I M MM U V Y G KI H V IM G I I I M U B F H BK B UF B Y M QU I B I Y I K M M G Y V I I U H K YU G B M I B M B V I P II Y Y BKH MY.1 M Ü.2.4 Miles his product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information.

19 BKH MY Year (ct.) nrollment apacity /Pre K KG 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th otal Growth % Growth 29/ / % 211/ % 212/ % 213/ % 214/ % 215/ % 216/ % 217/ % 218/ % 219/ % 22/ % 221/ % 222/ % 223/ % 41

20 B I U M PI GI IY HI F G B H KI I G PK Y H GH P I VI Y IG U IM M U Z G G H M J Q U B V P HI B V PPFI F U M Y G I U V B B Y G I B KI H MP Z P P I F XF U G PIG U H G I I H G B V FI H F P M B I Y I PFUGVI V H V Y M P Z Z IB M MIHU H G Y Y IVY 1 H I P F MP I HU P P H M MB H I I I G B V I U H V Y U G U F I Y I X G X F BU U I VI Y P QU I G J G G BU G B Y I B G I I G XI U B HY MB M H M Y U MP I I VI HI V U MI H FI B H U F M P M G Parcels Middle Boundary I Boundary 78 lementary Middle chool High chool lternative.175 Ü.35.7 Miles his product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information.

21 U MI H Year (ct.) nrollment apacity 5th Feeder 6th 7th 8th otal Growth % Growth 29/ ,27 21/ % 211/ ,7 9.9% 212/13 1, , % 213/14 1, % 214/15 1, % 215/16 1, % 216/17 1, % 217/18 1, % 218/19 1, % 219/2 1, % 22/21 1, % 221/22 1, , % 222/23 1, , % 223/24 1, , % 79

22 Y HIGH H B I High Boundary I Boundary G Y V 1 3 1H U J Y B B V M PPFI IM M U F M U FF I G G KI G H H H Y H G 9 IY P I G H VI MP K Z U K U K F H B Y K UB B I M V V B B Y JU Y JU G B 35 P Z Y H I V BY QU P II G H IG B V M M M U G M P I K FI B K B IG V P H P FI H G M Y M I H MIHU M P P K F I PM Y G U B M I I VI F M M P K Y Y G Z H B HU H Y BB H I B V FM I M B V P I M G M P K I B P I I VI B IG M M H I B BU P U G IV K I G Y M M P U I I B PF U G Y G M HY P VI M H IMMM PFUGVI Y PM B G K B V PIG HI H I IG PFUGVI B P P U K I Z H K G ZI M P PF BKH XI G G BV H Y P H PK M B «HI H 1 P 35 H IY V I BU I B M K K K P M P BU I M I I I M I I V B Y G MM M M G U G M I VI Y U ZI U I H lementary Middle chool High chool lternative.25 Ü.5 1 Miles his product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information.

23 Y HIGH H Year (ct.) nrollment apacity 8th Feeder 9th 1th 11th 12th otal Growth % Growth 29/ ,81 21/ , % 211/ , % 212/13 2, , % 213/14 2, , % 214/15 2, , % 215/16 2, , % 216/17 2, , % 217/18 2, , % 218/19 2, , % 219/2 2, , % 22/21 2, , % 221/22 2, , % 222/23 2, , % 223/24 2, , % 91

24 PPIX In this section: 97

25 PFUGVI I tudent istribution by ttending ampus M H PK 2 3 1H 11H 12H B M BKH M M PPFI M PIM HIGH PK M MUHI M H M PM M PFUGVI M IJ M IV K M M PIG HI M IMMM M I M IM M IM PIM ,665 1,75 1,77 1,753 1,8 1,777 11,278 1H 11H 12H U M M KG 1 4H 5H 6H 7H 8H 9H MI/JH H PK KG H 5H 6H 7H 8H 9H MI U MI KY MI ,4 PK MI PFUGVI MI ,49 VI MI MI/JH 1,766 1,882 1,71 5,349 ote: Based on ctober 213 enrollment file. 99

26 PFUGVI I tudent istribution by ttending ampus HIGH H PK KG H 5H 6H 7H 8H 9H 1H 11H 12H Y HIGH ,946 HIK HIGH ,658 PFUGVI HIGH ,227 HIGH 1,758 1,694 1,695 1,685 6,832 PK PFUGVI I 763 KG H 5H 6H 7H 8H 9H 1H 11H 12H 1,665 1,75 1,77 1,753 1,8 1,777 1,766 1,882 1,71 1,758 1,694 1,695 1,685 23,459 ote: Based on ctober 213 enrollment file. 1

27 5-Y M HG (BU) 28/9-213/14 Holland I 73 Burnet ons I -188 Florence I -84 Bartlett I -15 Jarrell I 263 Granger I -28 iberty Hill I 494 Georgetown I 328 eander I 6943 ago Vista I 147 Manor I 2435 anes I 659 ustin I 1889 ripping prings I 966 aylor I 49 ound ock I 4933 Pflugerville I 1824 ake ravis I 2112 horndale I 6 hrall I 35 Hutto I 168 Marble Falls I 87 ockdale I -13 oupland I -38 exington I -24 lgin I 293 Mcade I 7 el Valle I 2129 Bastrop I 86 Hays ons I 3374 mithville I 16 < his product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information > Miles

28 5-Y M HG (PG) 28/9-213/14 Holland I 13% Burnet ons I -5.5% Florence I -7.9% iberty Hill I 19.9% Bartlett I -3.7% Jarrell I 3% ockdale I -7.6% Granger I -6.2% Georgetown I 3.2% horndale I 1.7% hrall I 5.7% eander I 24.4% Marble Falls I 2.2% ago Vista I 11.9% Hutto I 22% ound ock I 11.8% oupland I -26.6% Pflugerville I 8.4% ake ravis I 34.4% ustin I 2.3% ripping prings I 23.3% exington I -2.5% Manor I 39.1% anes I 9% aylor I 1.5% lgin I 7.5% Mcade I 3.4% el Valle I 22.3% Bastrop I 9.2% Hays ons I 24.3% mithville I 6.2% < -8% - -8% - % % - 1% 1% - 2% his product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information. 2% - 5% > 5% Miles 155