Modeling Economic Time Series with Stochastic Linear Difference Equations
|
|
- Daniel Morgan
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 A. Thiemer, SLDG.mcd, 6..6 FH-Kiel Universiy of Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Andreas Thiemer Modeling Economic Time Series wih Sochasic Linear Difference Equaions Summary: Hansen/Sargen (998) creaed a class of models ha merges recursive linear models of dynamic economies wih dynamic economerics. The underlying sochasic process of he vecor of economic sae variables is consruced recursively using an iniial random vecor and a ime invarian law of moion. Some simulaions will show how special cases of his general model are formed by a variey of ime series processes ha have been sudied by economiss.
2 A. Thiemer, SLDG.mcd, 6..6 The basic law of moion equaion: < > Α. x < > C. w < > x x <> : sequence of random vecors w <> : sequence of "whie-noise"-vecors (maringale difference sequence) A, C : ransiion marices Example : Deerminisic polynomial ime rends Trend funcion: y Wihou random effecs C = and w =. The ransiion marix A becomes Α Hence x < > Α. x < > Α. x < > wih Α... 6.
3 A. Thiemer, 3 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Given he iniial condiion x < > T we obain for.. he sae vecors < > Α. x < > x The firs elemen of x yields he cubic polynom of he rend funcion above. If you inser o he oher elemens of x < >, you will ge a linear or quadraic rend funcion... y x < > y.5. 5 Polynomial rend Polynomial coefficiens:
4 A. Thiemer, 4 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Example : Deerminisic seasonals To represen he model y y 4 le n = 4, C =, Α and < > y, y, y, y 3 x T Given a seasonal paern o he iniial vecor x < > T S S S 3 S 4, he sysem is compleed:.. x < > Α. x < >.. y x < > Deerminisic seasonal Seasonal paern: y S.5 S.3 S S 4
5 A. Thiemer, 5 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Example 3: "Whie noise" The random variable ε follows a (,)-Gaussian disribuion. Now we generae a random sample for.. T max wih T max : ε. ln( rnd( ) ). cos(. π. rnd( ) ) Box-Muller-Transformaion 4 Whie noise ε Wih w ε and A =, C = his ime series is a special case of our general linear model. We use his random sequence in he examples 4-8 below.
6 A. Thiemer, 6 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Example 4: Sochasic seasonals Model: y α. y 4 w α Α and C We use he seasonal paern of example ogeher wih he random sequence of example 3... T max x < > Α. x < > C. w.. T max y x < > Noice: If α = ( uni roo) he sysem ends o display explosive oscillaions. If < α < ( no uni roo) he explosive oscillaions are no longer presen! 4 Sochasic seasonals y α
7 A. Thiemer, 7 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Example 5: Random walk We call y j = w j a random walk (or maringale process) if w is a whie noise variable. If he random walk includes a deerminisic rend i is called a random walk wih drif: y j = w j δ δ. Now we redefine his process as a special case of our general model: Α C x < > δ δ.. T max < > Α. x < > C. w x.. T max y x < > Random walk wih drif y 8 6 δ δ
8 A. Thiemer, 8 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Example 6: Univariae auoregressive process To represen he AR(4)-model y ρ. y ρ. y ρ. 3 y 3 ρ. 4 y 4 w we se: ρ ρ ρ 3 ρ 4 Α C x < > iniial T.. T max x < > Α. x < > C. w.. T max y x < > 5 Auoregressive process iniial ρ. y 5 ρ.3 ρ 3 ρ
9 A. Thiemer, 9 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Example 7: Growh wih homoskedasic and heeroskedasic noise The firs order auoregression [AR()-process] y ρ. y w wih ρ> describes a process, where he mean level is growing exponenially a rae ρ per period. The endency for he randomness dies ou, in he sense ha he one-sep ahead predicion error variance remains uniy ( homoskedasic noise). Now we modify his process a lile bi: y ρ. y ω wih ω ρ.5 This specificaion makes he variance of ω equal o ρ. Hence his variance is ime dependen ( heeroskedasic noise). Boh processes have he ransiion marices... w ρ Α C For a beer comparison, boh processes should sar wih he same iniial value: < > x iniial T < > x iniial T < >.. T max x < > x < > Α. x C. w < > Α. x C. ω < >.. T max y x y < > x
10 A. Thiemer, SLDG.mcd, Sochasic growh iniial y ρ.5 y homoskedasic growh heeroskedasic growh Look how he variance Var ω ρ increases hrough ime: 5 Time dependen variance ρ
11 A. Thiemer, SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Example 8: Univariae auoregressive moving average process Consider he model of an ARMA(,)-process: y ζ. y ξ. w ξ. w wih ζ < and ξ < ξ We define he sae as: x < > y ξ. w The ransiion marices and iniial vecor are: Α ζ C ξ x iniial 3 ξ.. T max x < > Α. x < > C. w.. T max y x < > 4 ARMA[,]-process y iniial 3 ζ.8 ξ.7 ξ
12 A. Thiemer, SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Example 9: Vecor auoregressive process We wan o simulae a VAR()-process: z a. z a. z b. z b. z w z a. z a. z b. z b. z w A firs we generae w, w T which is a Gaussian disribued vecor whie noise wih ideniy covariance marix:.. T max w. ln( rnd( ) ). cos (. π. rnd( ) ) w. ln( rnd( ) ). cos (. π. rnd( ) ) Box-Muller-Transformaion Second order whie noise 3 w ime pah sar end w
13 A. Thiemer, 3 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Sae vecor : Whie noise vecor: z x < > z z w < > w w z Ener parameers of he ransiion marix: a a b b a.9 a.5 b.5 b. Α a a b b a.4 a.6 b.75 b. C x < >.. T max x < > Α. x < > C. w < >.. T max z x < > z x < >
14 A. Thiemer, 4 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 VAR()-process z 5 z An impulse response funcion depics he response of he curren and fuure values of z o an imposiion of a random shock w ( = "innovaion"). Here we simulae he response over T max periods of he wo variables z and z o he firs innovaion w. x < > w < >.. T max x < > Α. x < > C. w < >.. T max z x < > z x < >
15 A. Thiemer, 5 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 Response o firs innovaion z.5 z And now he response o he second innovaion w : < > x.. T max x < > Α. x < > C. w < >.. T max z x < > z x < > Response o second innovaion.8 z.6 z
16 A. Thiemer, 6 SLDG.mcd, 6..6 I's Your Turn! Hin: To ge a new random sample of whie noise for he same se of parameers choose "compue workshee" from he MATHCAD menu... Simulae pure random walks (δ δ ). Simulae a MA()-process (ζ ). Lieraure: Hansen, L.P./Sargen, T.J.: Recursive linear models of dynamic economies. Ch.., 998 hp://
State-Space Models. Initialization, Estimation and Smoothing of the Kalman Filter
Sae-Space Models Iniializaion, Esimaion and Smoohing of he Kalman Filer Iniializaion of he Kalman Filer The Kalman filer shows how o updae pas predicors and he corresponding predicion error variances when
More informationHow to Deal with Structural Breaks in Practical Cointegration Analysis
How o Deal wih Srucural Breaks in Pracical Coinegraion Analysis Roselyne Joyeux * School of Economic and Financial Sudies Macquarie Universiy December 00 ABSTRACT In his noe we consider he reamen of srucural
More informationLecture 5. Time series: ECM. Bernardina Algieri Department Economics, Statistics and Finance
Lecure 5 Time series: ECM Bernardina Algieri Deparmen Economics, Saisics and Finance Conens Time Series Modelling Coinegraion Error Correcion Model Two Seps, Engle-Granger procedure Error Correcion Model
More informationDiebold, Chapter 7. Francis X. Diebold, Elements of Forecasting, 4th Edition (Mason, Ohio: Cengage Learning, 2006). Chapter 7. Characterizing Cycles
Diebold, Chaper 7 Francis X. Diebold, Elemens of Forecasing, 4h Ediion (Mason, Ohio: Cengage Learning, 006). Chaper 7. Characerizing Cycles Afer compleing his reading you should be able o: Define covariance
More informationAn recursive analytical technique to estimate time dependent physical parameters in the presence of noise processes
WHAT IS A KALMAN FILTER An recursive analyical echnique o esimae ime dependen physical parameers in he presence of noise processes Example of a ime and frequency applicaion: Offse beween wo clocks PREDICTORS,
More informationIntroduction D P. r = constant discount rate, g = Gordon Model (1962): constant dividend growth rate.
Inroducion Gordon Model (1962): D P = r g r = consan discoun rae, g = consan dividend growh rae. If raional expecaions of fuure discoun raes and dividend growh vary over ime, so should he D/P raio. Since
More informationElements of Stochastic Processes Lecture II Hamid R. Rabiee
Sochasic Processes Elemens of Sochasic Processes Lecure II Hamid R. Rabiee Overview Reading Assignmen Chaper 9 of exbook Furher Resources MIT Open Course Ware S. Karlin and H. M. Taylor, A Firs Course
More informationVectorautoregressive Model and Cointegration Analysis. Time Series Analysis Dr. Sevtap Kestel 1
Vecorauoregressive Model and Coinegraion Analysis Par V Time Series Analysis Dr. Sevap Kesel 1 Vecorauoregression Vecor auoregression (VAR) is an economeric model used o capure he evoluion and he inerdependencies
More informationFinancial Econometrics Jeffrey R. Russell Midterm Winter 2009 SOLUTIONS
Name SOLUTIONS Financial Economerics Jeffrey R. Russell Miderm Winer 009 SOLUTIONS You have 80 minues o complee he exam. Use can use a calculaor and noes. Try o fi all your work in he space provided. If
More informationOBJECTIVES OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
OBJECTIVES OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS Undersanding he dynamic or imedependen srucure of he observaions of a single series (univariae analysis) Forecasing of fuure observaions Asceraining he leading, lagging
More informationLearning Enhancement Team
Learning Enhancemen Team Model answers: Exponenial Funcions Exponenial Funcions sudy guide 1 i) The base rae of growh b is equal o 3 You can see his by noicing ha 1b 36 in his sysem, dividing boh sides
More informationInstitute for Mathematical Methods in Economics. University of Technology Vienna. Singapore, May Manfred Deistler
MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Manfred Deisler E O S Economerics and Sysems Theory Insiue for Mahemaical Mehods in Economics Universiy of Technology Vienna Singapore, May 2004 Inroducion
More informationRecursive Least-Squares Fixed-Interval Smoother Using Covariance Information based on Innovation Approach in Linear Continuous Stochastic Systems
8 Froniers in Signal Processing, Vol. 1, No. 1, July 217 hps://dx.doi.org/1.2266/fsp.217.112 Recursive Leas-Squares Fixed-Inerval Smooher Using Covariance Informaion based on Innovaion Approach in Linear
More informationLinear Gaussian State Space Models
Linear Gaussian Sae Space Models Srucural Time Series Models Level and Trend Models Basic Srucural Model (BSM Dynamic Linear Models Sae Space Model Represenaion Level, Trend, and Seasonal Models Time Varying
More informationExcel-Based Solution Method For The Optimal Policy Of The Hadley And Whittin s Exact Model With Arma Demand
Excel-Based Soluion Mehod For The Opimal Policy Of The Hadley And Whiin s Exac Model Wih Arma Demand Kal Nami School of Business and Economics Winson Salem Sae Universiy Winson Salem, NC 27110 Phone: (336)750-2338
More informationDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND Asymmery and Leverage in Condiional Volailiy Models Michael McAleer WORKING PAPER
More informationDYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS vol NICHOLAS COPERNICUS UNIVERSITY - TORUŃ Józef Stawicki and Joanna Górka Nicholas Copernicus University
DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS vol.. - NICHOLAS COPERNICUS UNIVERSITY - TORUŃ 996 Józef Sawicki and Joanna Górka Nicholas Copernicus Universiy ARMA represenaion for a sum of auoregressive processes In he ime
More informationCointegration and Implications for Forecasting
Coinegraion and Implicaions for Forecasing Two examples (A) Y Y 1 1 1 2 (B) Y 0.3 0.9 1 1 2 Example B: Coinegraion Y and coinegraed wih coinegraing vecor [1, 0.9] because Y 0.9 0.3 is a saionary process
More informationNonstationarity-Integrated Models. Time Series Analysis Dr. Sevtap Kestel 1
Nonsaionariy-Inegraed Models Time Series Analysis Dr. Sevap Kesel 1 Diagnosic Checking Residual Analysis: Whie noise. P-P or Q-Q plos of he residuals follow a normal disribuion, he series is called a Gaussian
More informationBOOTSTRAP PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR TIME SERIES MODELS WITH HETROSCEDASTIC ERRORS. Department of Statistics, Islamia College, Peshawar, KP, Pakistan 2
Pak. J. Sais. 017 Vol. 33(1), 1-13 BOOTSTRAP PREDICTIO ITERVAS FOR TIME SERIES MODES WITH HETROSCEDASTIC ERRORS Amjad Ali 1, Sajjad Ahmad Khan, Alamgir 3 Umair Khalil and Dos Muhammad Khan 1 Deparmen of
More informationLicenciatura de ADE y Licenciatura conjunta Derecho y ADE. Hoja de ejercicios 2 PARTE A
Licenciaura de ADE y Licenciaura conjuna Derecho y ADE Hoja de ejercicios PARTE A 1. Consider he following models Δy = 0.8 + ε (1 + 0.8L) Δ 1 y = ε where ε and ε are independen whie noise processes. In
More information0.1 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION EXPLAINED
0.1 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATIO EXPLAIED Maximum likelihood esimaion is a bes-fi saisical mehod for he esimaion of he values of he parameers of a sysem, based on a se of observaions of a random variable
More informationStationary Time Series
3-Jul-3 Time Series Analysis Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sevap Kesel July 03 Saionary Time Series Sricly saionary process: If he oin dis. of is he same as he oin dis. of ( X,... X n) ( X h,... X nh) Weakly Saionary
More informationDEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS
A Tes for Mulivariae ARCH Effecs R. Sco Hacker and Abdulnasser Haemi-J 004: DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS S-0 07 LUND SWEDEN A Tes for Mulivariae ARCH Effecs R. Sco Hacker Jönköping Inernaional Business School
More informationST2352. Stochastic Processes constructed via Conditional Simulation. 09/02/2014 ST2352 Week 4 1
ST35 Sochasic Processes consruced via Condiional Simulaion 09/0/014 ST35 Week 4 1 Sochasic Processes consruced via Condiional Simulaion Markov Processes Simulaing Random Tex Google Sugges n grams Random
More informationRobust estimation based on the first- and third-moment restrictions of the power transformation model
h Inernaional Congress on Modelling and Simulaion, Adelaide, Ausralia, 6 December 3 www.mssanz.org.au/modsim3 Robus esimaion based on he firs- and hird-momen resricions of he power ransformaion Nawaa,
More informationSimulating models with heterogeneous agents
Simulaing models wih heerogeneous agens Wouer J. Den Haan London School of Economics c by Wouer J. Den Haan Individual agen Subjec o employmen shocks (ε i, {0, 1}) Incomplee markes only way o save is hrough
More informationR t. C t P t. + u t. C t = αp t + βr t + v t. + β + w t
Exercise 7 C P = α + β R P + u C = αp + βr + v (a) (b) C R = α P R + β + w (c) Assumpions abou he disurbances u, v, w : Classical assumions on he disurbance of one of he equaions, eg. on (b): E(v v s P,
More informationTesting for a Single Factor Model in the Multivariate State Space Framework
esing for a Single Facor Model in he Mulivariae Sae Space Framework Chen C.-Y. M. Chiba and M. Kobayashi Inernaional Graduae School of Social Sciences Yokohama Naional Universiy Japan Faculy of Economics
More information14 Autoregressive Moving Average Models
14 Auoregressive Moving Average Models In his chaper an imporan parameric family of saionary ime series is inroduced, he family of he auoregressive moving average, or ARMA, processes. For a large class
More informationNotes on Kalman Filtering
Noes on Kalman Filering Brian Borchers and Rick Aser November 7, Inroducion Daa Assimilaion is he problem of merging model predicions wih acual measuremens of a sysem o produce an opimal esimae of he curren
More informationBias in Conditional and Unconditional Fixed Effects Logit Estimation: a Correction * Tom Coupé
Bias in Condiional and Uncondiional Fixed Effecs Logi Esimaion: a Correcion * Tom Coupé Economics Educaion and Research Consorium, Naional Universiy of Kyiv Mohyla Academy Address: Vul Voloska 10, 04070
More informationLecture 10 Estimating Nonlinear Regression Models
Lecure 0 Esimaing Nonlinear Regression Models References: Greene, Economeric Analysis, Chaper 0 Consider he following regression model: y = f(x, β) + ε =,, x is kx for each, β is an rxconsan vecor, ε is
More informationEstimation Uncertainty
Esimaion Uncerainy The sample mean is an esimae of β = E(y +h ) The esimaion error is = + = T h y T b ( ) = = + = + = = = T T h T h e T y T y T b β β β Esimaion Variance Under classical condiions, where
More informationRobert Kollmann. 6 September 2017
Appendix: Supplemenary maerial for Tracable Likelihood-Based Esimaion of Non- Linear DSGE Models Economics Leers (available online 6 Sepember 207) hp://dx.doi.org/0.06/j.econle.207.08.027 Rober Kollmann
More informationY 0.4Y 0.45Y Y to a proper ARMA specification.
HG Jan 04 ECON 50 Exercises II - 0 Feb 04 (wih answers Exercise. Read secion 8 in lecure noes 3 (LN3 on he common facor problem in ARMA-processes. Consider he following process Y 0.4Y 0.45Y 0.5 ( where
More informationUnit Root Time Series. Univariate random walk
Uni Roo ime Series Univariae random walk Consider he regression y y where ~ iid N 0, he leas squares esimae of is: ˆ yy y y yy Now wha if = If y y hen le y 0 =0 so ha y j j If ~ iid N 0, hen y ~ N 0, he
More informationL07. KALMAN FILTERING FOR NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS. NA568 Mobile Robotics: Methods & Algorithms
L07. KALMAN FILTERING FOR NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS NA568 Mobile Roboics: Mehods & Algorihms Today s Topic Quick review on (Linear) Kalman Filer Kalman Filering for Non-Linear Sysems Exended Kalman Filer (EKF)
More informationFiltering Turbulent Signals Using Gaussian and non-gaussian Filters with Model Error
Filering Turbulen Signals Using Gaussian and non-gaussian Filers wih Model Error June 3, 3 Nan Chen Cener for Amosphere Ocean Science (CAOS) Couran Insiue of Sciences New York Universiy / I. Ouline Use
More informationSTATE-SPACE MODELLING. A mass balance across the tank gives:
B. Lennox and N.F. Thornhill, 9, Sae Space Modelling, IChemE Process Managemen and Conrol Subjec Group Newsleer STE-SPACE MODELLING Inroducion: Over he pas decade or so here has been an ever increasing
More informationFinancial Econometrics Kalman Filter: some applications to Finance University of Evry - Master 2
Financial Economerics Kalman Filer: some applicaions o Finance Universiy of Evry - Maser 2 Eric Bouyé January 27, 2009 Conens 1 Sae-space models 2 2 The Scalar Kalman Filer 2 21 Presenaion 2 22 Summary
More informationGeorey E. Hinton. University oftoronto. Technical Report CRG-TR February 22, Abstract
Parameer Esimaion for Linear Dynamical Sysems Zoubin Ghahramani Georey E. Hinon Deparmen of Compuer Science Universiy oftorono 6 King's College Road Torono, Canada M5S A4 Email: zoubin@cs.orono.edu Technical
More informationdt = C exp (3 ln t 4 ). t 4 W = C exp ( ln(4 t) 3) = C(4 t) 3.
Mah Rahman Exam Review Soluions () Consider he IVP: ( 4)y 3y + 4y = ; y(3) = 0, y (3) =. (a) Please deermine he longes inerval for which he IVP is guaraneed o have a unique soluion. Soluion: The disconinuiies
More informationt is a basis for the solution space to this system, then the matrix having these solutions as columns, t x 1 t, x 2 t,... x n t x 2 t...
Mah 228- Fri Mar 24 5.6 Marix exponenials and linear sysems: The analogy beween firs order sysems of linear differenial equaions (Chaper 5) and scalar linear differenial equaions (Chaper ) is much sronger
More informationMatlab and Python programming: how to get started
Malab and Pyhon programming: how o ge sared Equipping readers he skills o wrie programs o explore complex sysems and discover ineresing paerns from big daa is one of he main goals of his book. In his chaper,
More informationDistribution of Estimates
Disribuion of Esimaes From Economerics (40) Linear Regression Model Assume (y,x ) is iid and E(x e )0 Esimaion Consisency y α + βx + he esimaes approach he rue values as he sample size increases Esimaion
More informationModule 3: The Damped Oscillator-II Lecture 3: The Damped Oscillator-II
Module 3: The Damped Oscillaor-II Lecure 3: The Damped Oscillaor-II 3. Over-damped Oscillaions. This refers o he siuaion where β > ω (3.) The wo roos are and α = β + α 2 = β β 2 ω 2 = (3.2) β 2 ω 2 = 2
More informationON THE BEAT PHENOMENON IN COUPLED SYSTEMS
8 h ASCE Specialy Conference on Probabilisic Mechanics and Srucural Reliabiliy PMC-38 ON THE BEAT PHENOMENON IN COUPLED SYSTEMS S. K. Yalla, Suden Member ASCE and A. Kareem, M. ASCE NaHaz Modeling Laboraory,
More informationThe equation to any straight line can be expressed in the form:
Sring Graphs Par 1 Answers 1 TI-Nspire Invesigaion Suden min Aims Deermine a series of equaions of sraigh lines o form a paern similar o ha formed by he cables on he Jerusalem Chords Bridge. Deermine he
More informationProblem Set on Differential Equations
Problem Se on Differenial Equaions 1. Solve he following differenial equaions (a) x () = e x (), x () = 3/ 4. (b) x () = e x (), x (1) =. (c) xe () = + (1 x ()) e, x () =.. (An asse marke model). Le p()
More informationAugmented Reality II - Kalman Filters - Gudrun Klinker May 25, 2004
Augmened Realiy II Kalman Filers Gudrun Klinker May 25, 2004 Ouline Moivaion Discree Kalman Filer Modeled Process Compuing Model Parameers Algorihm Exended Kalman Filer Kalman Filer for Sensor Fusion Lieraure
More informationTwo Popular Bayesian Estimators: Particle and Kalman Filters. McGill COMP 765 Sept 14 th, 2017
Two Popular Bayesian Esimaors: Paricle and Kalman Filers McGill COMP 765 Sep 14 h, 2017 1 1 1, dx x Bel x u x P x z P Recall: Bayes Filers,,,,,,, 1 1 1 1 u z u x P u z u x z P Bayes z = observaion u =
More informationRecent Developments in the Unit Root Problem for Moving Averages
Recen Developmens in he Uni Roo Problem for Moving Averages Richard A. Davis Colorado Sae Universiy Mei-Ching Chen Chaoyang Insiue of echnology homas Miosch Universiy of Groningen Non-inverible MA() Model
More informationStochastic Model for Cancer Cell Growth through Single Forward Mutation
Journal of Modern Applied Saisical Mehods Volume 16 Issue 1 Aricle 31 5-1-2017 Sochasic Model for Cancer Cell Growh hrough Single Forward Muaion Jayabharahiraj Jayabalan Pondicherry Universiy, jayabharahi8@gmail.com
More informationElectrical Circuits. 1. Circuit Laws. Tools Used in Lab 13 Series Circuits Damped Vibrations: Energy Van der Pol Circuit
V() R L C 513 Elecrical Circuis Tools Used in Lab 13 Series Circuis Damped Vibraions: Energy Van der Pol Circui A series circui wih an inducor, resisor, and capacior can be represened by Lq + Rq + 1, a
More informationThe Brock-Mirman Stochastic Growth Model
c December 3, 208, Chrisopher D. Carroll BrockMirman The Brock-Mirman Sochasic Growh Model Brock and Mirman (972) provided he firs opimizing growh model wih unpredicable (sochasic) shocks. The social planner
More informationA unit root test based on smooth transitions and nonlinear adjustment
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive A uni roo es based on smooh ransiions and nonlinear adjusmen Aycan Hepsag Isanbul Universiy 5 Ocober 2017 Online a hps://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/81788/ MPRA Paper No.
More informationRC, RL and RLC circuits
Name Dae Time o Complee h m Parner Course/ Secion / Grade RC, RL and RLC circuis Inroducion In his experimen we will invesigae he behavior of circuis conaining combinaions of resisors, capaciors, and inducors.
More informationDeep Learning: Theory, Techniques & Applications - Recurrent Neural Networks -
Deep Learning: Theory, Techniques & Applicaions - Recurren Neural Neworks - Prof. Maeo Maeucci maeo.maeucci@polimi.i Deparmen of Elecronics, Informaion and Bioengineering Arificial Inelligence and Roboics
More informationApplication of a Stochastic-Fuzzy Approach to Modeling Optimal Discrete Time Dynamical Systems by Using Large Scale Data Processing
Applicaion of a Sochasic-Fuzzy Approach o Modeling Opimal Discree Time Dynamical Sysems by Using Large Scale Daa Processing AA WALASZE-BABISZEWSA Deparmen of Compuer Engineering Opole Universiy of Technology
More information10. State Space Methods
. Sae Space Mehods. Inroducion Sae space modelling was briefly inroduced in chaper. Here more coverage is provided of sae space mehods before some of heir uses in conrol sysem design are covered in he
More informationComputation of the Effect of Space Harmonics on Starting Process of Induction Motors Using TSFEM
Journal of elecrical sysems Special Issue N 01 : November 2009 pp: 48-52 Compuaion of he Effec of Space Harmonics on Saring Process of Inducion Moors Using TSFEM Youcef Ouazir USTHB Laboraoire des sysèmes
More informationLinear Dynamic Models
Linear Dnamic Models and Forecasing Reference aricle: Ineracions beween he muliplier analsis and he principle of acceleraion Ouline. The sae space ssem as an approach o working wih ssems of difference
More informationLAPLACE TRANSFORM AND TRANSFER FUNCTION
CHBE320 LECTURE V LAPLACE TRANSFORM AND TRANSFER FUNCTION Professor Dae Ryook Yang Spring 2018 Dep. of Chemical and Biological Engineering 5-1 Road Map of he Lecure V Laplace Transform and Transfer funcions
More informationECON 482 / WH Hong Time Series Data Analysis 1. The Nature of Time Series Data. Example of time series data (inflation and unemployment rates)
ECON 48 / WH Hong Time Series Daa Analysis. The Naure of Time Series Daa Example of ime series daa (inflaion and unemploymen raes) ECON 48 / WH Hong Time Series Daa Analysis The naure of ime series daa
More informationProbabilistic Robotics
Probabilisic Roboics Bayes Filer Implemenaions Gaussian filers Bayes Filer Reminder Predicion bel p u bel d Correcion bel η p z bel Gaussians : ~ π e p N p - Univariae / / : ~ μ μ μ e p Ν p d π Mulivariae
More informationProblem Set #1. i z. the complex propagation constant. For the characteristic impedance:
Problem Se # Problem : a) Using phasor noaion, calculae he volage and curren waves on a ransmission line by solving he wave equaion Assume ha R, L,, G are all non-zero and independen of frequency From
More informationSimulation-Solving Dynamic Models ABE 5646 Week 2, Spring 2010
Simulaion-Solving Dynamic Models ABE 5646 Week 2, Spring 2010 Week Descripion Reading Maerial 2 Compuer Simulaion of Dynamic Models Finie Difference, coninuous saes, discree ime Simple Mehods Euler Trapezoid
More informationObject tracking: Using HMMs to estimate the geographical location of fish
Objec racking: Using HMMs o esimae he geographical locaion of fish 02433 - Hidden Markov Models Marin Wæver Pedersen, Henrik Madsen Course week 13 MWP, compiled June 8, 2011 Objecive: Locae fish from agging
More information- The whole joint distribution is independent of the date at which it is measured and depends only on the lag.
Saionary Processes Sricly saionary - The whole join disribuion is indeenden of he dae a which i is measured and deends only on he lag. - E y ) is a finie consan. ( - V y ) is a finie consan. ( ( y, y s
More informationThe average rate of change between two points on a function is d t
SM Dae: Secion: Objecive: The average rae of change beween wo poins on a funcion is d. For example, if he funcion ( ) represens he disance in miles ha a car has raveled afer hours, hen finding he slope
More informationØkonomisk Kandidateksamen 2005(II) Econometrics 2. Solution
Økonomisk Kandidaeksamen 2005(II) Economerics 2 Soluion his is he proposed soluion for he exam in Economerics 2. For compleeness he soluion gives formal answers o mos of he quesions alhough his is no always
More informationGeneralized Least Squares
Generalized Leas Squares Augus 006 1 Modified Model Original assumpions: 1 Specificaion: y = Xβ + ε (1) Eε =0 3 EX 0 ε =0 4 Eεε 0 = σ I In his secion, we consider relaxing assumpion (4) Insead, assume
More informationChapter 2. First Order Scalar Equations
Chaper. Firs Order Scalar Equaions We sar our sudy of differenial equaions in he same way he pioneers in his field did. We show paricular echniques o solve paricular ypes of firs order differenial equaions.
More information5. Response of Linear Time-Invariant Systems to Random Inputs
Sysem: 5. Response of inear ime-invarian Sysems o Random Inpus 5.. Discree-ime linear ime-invarian (IV) sysems 5... Discree-ime IV sysem IV sysem xn ( ) yn ( ) [ xn ( )] Inpu Signal Sysem S Oupu Signal
More informationCONTROL SYSTEMS, ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION Vol. XI Control of Stochastic Systems - P.R. Kumar
CONROL OF SOCHASIC SYSEMS P.R. Kumar Deparmen of Elecrical and Compuer Engineering, and Coordinaed Science Laboraory, Universiy of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, USA. Keywords: Markov chains, ransiion probabiliies,
More informationProblem Set 5. Graduate Macro II, Spring 2017 The University of Notre Dame Professor Sims
Problem Se 5 Graduae Macro II, Spring 2017 The Universiy of Nore Dame Professor Sims Insrucions: You may consul wih oher members of he class, bu please make sure o urn in your own work. Where applicable,
More informationChapter 5. Heterocedastic Models. Introduction to time series (2008) 1
Chaper 5 Heerocedasic Models Inroducion o ime series (2008) 1 Chaper 5. Conens. 5.1. The ARCH model. 5.2. The GARCH model. 5.3. The exponenial GARCH model. 5.4. The CHARMA model. 5.5. Random coefficien
More informationSection 7.4 Modeling Changing Amplitude and Midline
488 Chaper 7 Secion 7.4 Modeling Changing Ampliude and Midline While sinusoidal funcions can model a variey of behaviors, i is ofen necessary o combine sinusoidal funcions wih linear and exponenial curves
More informationEvaluation of Mean Time to System Failure of a Repairable 3-out-of-4 System with Online Preventive Maintenance
American Journal of Applied Mahemaics and Saisics, 0, Vol., No., 9- Available online a hp://pubs.sciepub.com/ajams/// Science and Educaion Publishing DOI:0.69/ajams--- Evaluaion of Mean Time o Sysem Failure
More informationLECTURE 1: GENERALIZED RAY KNIGHT THEOREM FOR FINITE MARKOV CHAINS
LECTURE : GENERALIZED RAY KNIGHT THEOREM FOR FINITE MARKOV CHAINS We will work wih a coninuous ime reversible Markov chain X on a finie conneced sae space, wih generaor Lf(x = y q x,yf(y. (Recall ha q
More informationPhysics 127b: Statistical Mechanics. Fokker-Planck Equation. Time Evolution
Physics 7b: Saisical Mechanics Fokker-Planck Equaion The Langevin equaion approach o he evoluion of he velociy disribuion for he Brownian paricle migh leave you uncomforable. A more formal reamen of his
More informationhen found from Bayes rule. Specically, he prior disribuion is given by p( ) = N( ; ^ ; r ) (.3) where r is he prior variance (we add on he random drif
Chaper Kalman Filers. Inroducion We describe Bayesian Learning for sequenial esimaion of parameers (eg. means, AR coeciens). The updae procedures are known as Kalman Filers. We show how Dynamic Linear
More informationMath 333 Problem Set #2 Solution 14 February 2003
Mah 333 Problem Se #2 Soluion 14 February 2003 A1. Solve he iniial value problem dy dx = x2 + e 3x ; 2y 4 y(0) = 1. Soluion: This is separable; we wrie 2y 4 dy = x 2 + e x dx and inegrae o ge The iniial
More informationKalman filtering for maximum likelihood estimation given corrupted observations.
alman filering maimum likelihood esimaion given corruped observaions... Holmes Naional Marine isheries Service Inroducion he alman filer is used o eend likelihood esimaion o cases wih hidden saes such
More informationA Bayesian Approach to Spectral Analysis
Chirped Signals A Bayesian Approach o Specral Analysis Chirped signals are oscillaing signals wih ime variable frequencies, usually wih a linear variaion of frequency wih ime. E.g. f() = A cos(ω + α 2
More informationInternational Journal of Computer Science Trends and Technology (IJCST) Volume 3 Issue 6, Nov-Dec 2015
Inernaional Journal of Compuer Science Trends and Technology (IJCST) Volume Issue 6, Nov-Dec 05 RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS An EPQ Model for Two-Parameer Weibully Deerioraed Iems wih Exponenial Demand
More informationSystem of Linear Differential Equations
Sysem of Linear Differenial Equaions In "Ordinary Differenial Equaions" we've learned how o solve a differenial equaion for a variable, such as: y'k5$e K2$x =0 solve DE yx = K 5 2 ek2 x C_C1 2$y''C7$y
More informationDistribution of Least Squares
Disribuion of Leas Squares In classic regression, if he errors are iid normal, and independen of he regressors, hen he leas squares esimaes have an exac normal disribuion, no jus asympoic his is no rue
More informationProperties of Autocorrelated Processes Economics 30331
Properies of Auocorrelaed Processes Economics 3033 Bill Evans Fall 05 Suppose we have ime series daa series labeled as where =,,3, T (he final period) Some examples are he dail closing price of he S&500,
More informationIntroduction to choice over time
Microeconomic Theory -- Choice over ime Inroducion o choice over ime Individual choice Income and subsiuion effecs 7 Walrasian equilibrium ineres rae 9 pages John Riley Ocober 9, 08 Microeconomic Theory
More informationRandom Walk on Circle Imagine a Markov process governing the random motion of a particle on a circular
Random Walk on Circle Imagine a Markov process governing he random moion of a paricle on a circular laice: 1 2 γ γ γ The paricle moves o he righ or lef wih probabiliy γ and says where i is wih probabiliy
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 0.038/NCLIMATE893 Temporal resoluion and DICE * Supplemenal Informaion Alex L. Maren and Sephen C. Newbold Naional Cener for Environmenal Economics, US Environmenal Proecion
More informationΓ(h)=0 h 0. Γ(h)=cov(X 0,X 0-h ). A stationary process is called white noise if its autocovariance
A family, Z,of random vecors : Ω R k defined on a probabiliy space Ω, A,P) is called a saionary process if he mean vecors E E =E M = M k E and he auocovariance marices are independen of. k cov, -h )=E
More informationGMM - Generalized Method of Moments
GMM - Generalized Mehod of Momens Conens GMM esimaion, shor inroducion 2 GMM inuiion: Maching momens 2 3 General overview of GMM esimaion. 3 3. Weighing marix...........................................
More informationVoltage/current relationship Stored Energy. RL / RC circuits Steady State / Transient response Natural / Step response
Review Capaciors/Inducors Volage/curren relaionship Sored Energy s Order Circuis RL / RC circuis Seady Sae / Transien response Naural / Sep response EE4 Summer 5: Lecure 5 Insrucor: Ocavian Florescu Lecure
More informationCHAPTER 6: FIRST-ORDER CIRCUITS
EEE5: CI CUI T THEOY CHAPTE 6: FIST-ODE CICUITS 6. Inroducion This chaper considers L and C circuis. Applying he Kirshoff s law o C and L circuis produces differenial equaions. The differenial equaions
More informationMacroeconomic Theory Ph.D. Qualifying Examination Fall 2005 ANSWER EACH PART IN A SEPARATE BLUE BOOK. PART ONE: ANSWER IN BOOK 1 WEIGHT 1/3
Macroeconomic Theory Ph.D. Qualifying Examinaion Fall 2005 Comprehensive Examinaion UCLA Dep. of Economics You have 4 hours o complee he exam. There are hree pars o he exam. Answer all pars. Each par has
More informationThe Brock-Mirman Stochastic Growth Model
c November 20, 207, Chrisopher D. Carroll BrockMirman The Brock-Mirman Sochasic Growh Model Brock and Mirman (972) provided he firs opimizing growh model wih unpredicable (sochasic) shocks. The social
More informationTHE MYSTERY OF STOCHASTIC MECHANICS. Edward Nelson Department of Mathematics Princeton University
THE MYSTERY OF STOCHASTIC MECHANICS Edward Nelson Deparmen of Mahemaics Princeon Universiy 1 Classical Hamilon-Jacobi heory N paricles of various masses on a Euclidean space. Incorporae he masses in he
More information