Cambridge Using Plume Rise Schemes To Model Highly Buoyant Plumes From Large Fires
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1 Using Plume Rise Schemes To Model Highly Buoyant Plumes From Large Fires Helen Webster, Robert Beare, Benjamin Devenish, James Haywood, Adrian Lock and David Thomson Crown copyright 2007 Page 1
2 Outline of talk Buncefield oil depot explosion NAME modelling of incident Plume rise modelling inaccuracies Conclusions Crown copyright 2007 Page 2
3 The Buncefield Oil Depot Explosion 06UTC Sunday 11 th December 2005 Hemel Hempstead, UK Largest peacetime fire in Europe to date ~40 million litres of fuel burnt At height of fire, 20 large fuel storage tanks on fire Fires burned for 4 days Thick black smoke plume visible from space Crown copyright 2007 Page 3
4 Visible Satellite Imagery Significant vertical wind shear fan-like plume 3-D modelling essential Crown copyright 2007 Page 4
5 NAME Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment Lagrangian particle model Particles carried along by the ambient 3-D wind Random turbulent wind components represent effects of turbulent diffusion processes NAME used to predict the transport and spread of the Buncefield plume Crown copyright 2007 Page 5
6 Initial NAME Modelling Uncertainties Source / release details Composition Quantity of material Plume rise Initial modelling Unit release of tracer Utilising observations to best estimate plume height Aircraft Satellite imagery Simple elevated source Use NWP meteorological data 12 km horizontal resolution MSG 12:00UTC 11 Dec NAME 12:00UTC 11 Dec Crown copyright 2007 Page 6
7 Plume rise modelling NAME plume rise scheme Conservation equations of Mass Momentum Heat Simulates the initial rise due to buoyancy using estimates of the heat release rate Maximum height too low Insufficient vertical spread 12:00UTC 11 Dec Crown copyright 2007 Page 7
8 Inaccurate heat release rate estimate? Source uncertainties Underestimate of heat release rate? Maximum height of the plume increased But Still insufficient vertical spread of the plume 12:00UTC 11 Dec Crown copyright 2007 Page 8
9 Accurate representation of meteorology? Radiosondes Oil depot Surface observations Crown copyright 2007 Page 9
10 Accurate representation of meteorology? Herstmonceux 12:00UTC 11 Dec Radiosonde profiles NWP profiles Crown copyright 2007 Page 10
11 Plume rise scheme sensitivity to entrainment parameters Parametrization of entrainment of ambient air Entrainment parameters NAME: Briggs, Weil α 1 =0.11 ADMS α 1 =0.057 Less entrainment = More plume rise α 1 =0.11 α 1 =0.057 Crown copyright 2007 Page 11
12 Mean particle height (m) Lofting due to absorption of solar radiation Radiative transfer calculations NAME Heat flux term added to plume rise scheme Irradiance measurements 100 W m -2 absorbed by plume Total solar radiation flux 280 W m -2 Lofting accounts for only a small increase in the height of the plume top December 2005 Crown copyright 2007 Page 12
13 Latent heat release from condensing water vapour Combustion process Burning hydrocarbons produces water Heat released from condensation of water produced by combustion of fuel Water in the plume Small contribution to energy budget (~7% of heat released from burning fuel) Entrainment of moist ambient air Reports of thick fog and high humidity levels Modelled using Large Eddy Simulations LES also models the effect of the fire on the meteorology Crown copyright 2007 Page 13
14 Large Eddy Simulations Boussinesq dry atmosphere Fixed meteorology Plume height: ~ m Spread in SE - SW direction (consistent with observations) Moisture has small effect Crown copyright 2007 Page 14
15 Other possibilities Complex source At height of fire 20 large fuel storage tanks alight NAME modelling assumes simple homogeneous source Issues with the plume rise scheme? Drift of particles back to neutral buoyancy Reduction in plume vertical spread Any more ideas? Crown copyright 2007 Page 15
16 Conclusions Modelling plume from Buncefield incident Simple elevated release Good agreement with satellite imagery Plume rise modelling Appropriate magnitude of plume rise Too little vertical spread In emergency response situations Important information (e.g. source details) unknown Utilise observations Keep modelling simple Crown copyright 2007 Page 16
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