The Campanian Earthquake Early Warning Project

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1 The Campanian Earthquake Early Warning Project by Aldo Zollo and Claudio Satriano RISCC-Lab, Napoli, Italy

2 Earthquake Mitigation earthquake forecasting seismic risk enigineers/insurers seismic hazard long-term scientists earthquake prediction short-term seismic protection strategies decision makers long-term short-term redrawn from Snieder and van Eck, 1997

3 Real-Time Systems: Operating Principle Epicenter Seismic waves (~ 3.5 Km/s) Seismic Network Information (speed of light) Target

4 Real-Time Systems: Operating Principle Epicenter Seismic waves (~ 3.5 Km/s) Seismic Network Information (speed of light) Target T0 time

5 Real-Time Systems: Operating Principle Epicenter Seismic waves (~ 3.5 Km/s) Seismic Network Information (speed of light) Target P-Arrival T0 TP time

6 Real-Time Systems: Operating Principle Seismic waves (~ 3.5 Km/s) Information (speed of light) Epicenter Target Seismic Network P-Arrival T0 TP TS time

7 Real-Time Systems: Operating Principle Epicenter Seismic waves (~ 3.5 Km/s) Seismic Network Information (speed of light) Target P-Arrival Telemetry and computing T0 TP TS time

8 Real-Time Systems: Operating Principle Epicenter Seismic waves (~ 3.5 Km/s) Seismic Network Information (speed of light) Target P-Arrival Telemetry and computing Seismic Early Warning ~ 10 sec T0 TP TS time

9 Real-Time Systems: Operating Principle Epicenter Seismic waves (~ 3.5 Km/s) Seismic Network Information (speed of light) Target P-Arrival Telemetry and computing Seismic Early Warning ~ 10 sec Immediate post-event ~ 1 min T0 TP TS time

10 Seismic Alert Management System t seconds seconds time

11 Seismic Alert Management System t seconds seconds time Early Warning Data Array: location, magnitude (with uncertainty) Real-time data updating and dissemination of the information (progressive refinement of reliability of estimated parameters) Distributed process of analysis and decision

12 Seismic Alert Management System t seconds seconds time Early Warning Data Array: location, magnitude (with uncertainty) Real-time data updating and dissemination of the information (progressive refinement of reliability of estimated parameters) Distributed process of analysis and decision Post Event Warning Shake maps Preliminary Scenario: assessment and spatial interpolation of ground motion Detailed Scenario: fracture and wave propagation simulation based on simplified source/ propagation model

13 Campania region: historical seismicity

14 Campania region: historical seismicity Irpinia 1980 (Ms=6.9)

15 Rate of occurrence Instrumental data (Boschi et al, 2003) M>4.0 1 event every 1.5 years M>5.0 1 event every 4 years M>6.0 1 event every 32 years Probability map of moderate to large earthquakes (M 5.5) in Italy for the next 10 years (Cinti et al., G3, 2005)

16 INGV catalogue ( ), M>2.5

17 The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) Early Warning Network 28 sites Osiris 24-bit Data Logger 6 channels: 3 accelerometers 3 seismometers (Short Period or Broad Band) Real time data analysis INGV catalogue ( ), M>2.5

18 The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) Shake Map Network 11 sites Osiris 24-bit Data Logger 6 channels: 3 accelerometers 3 seismometers (Short Period or Broad Band) On request data analysis Early Warning Network 28 sites Osiris 24-bit Data Logger 6 channels: 3 accelerometers 3 seismometers (Short Period or Broad Band) Real time data analysis

19 The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)

20 The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) NCC LCC Three levels of data acquisition and analysis Stations (data loggers) Local Control Centers (sub-nets) Network Control Weber et al., 2006

21 The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) NCC LCC Three levels of data acquisition and analysis Stations (data loggers) Local Control Centers (sub-nets) Network Control Weber et al., s eqk at 4-16 km depth 3-5 s Latency & computation s at 60 Km s at 80 Km s at 100 Km To TP first TS target time

22 Real-Time Earthquake Location volume defined by stations without arrivals conditional EDT surface B A Satriano et al., 2006 First station detects arrival constraint is Voronoi cells

23 Real-Time Earthquake Location tt B tt A t now t A conditional EDT surface B A Satriano et al., 2006 Wavefront expands EDT surfaces deform, constraint improves

24 Real-Time Earthquake Location tt B tt A = t B t A true EDT surface B A Satriano et al., 2006 Second station detects arrival constraint includes EDT surface

25 Real-Time Earthquake Location Satriano et al., 2006 Third station detects arrival constraint is mainly EDT surfaces

26 Real-Time Earthquake Location (RTLoc)

27 Relationship between Magnitude and Log Peak Displacement Zollo and Lancieri, 2006 European Acelerometric Database (Ambraseys et al.2004) 207 events with 4 MW 7.4 (Kokaeli,1999) component recordings Epicentre distance 50 km Low-pass filter at 3 Hz

28 Relationship between Magnitude and Log Peak Displacement Zollo and Lancieri, 2006 P-phase PGA (m/s ) 2 S-phase Time (s)

29 Relationship between Magnitude and Log Peak Displacement Zollo and Lancieri, 2006 P-phase PGA (m/s ) 2 S-phase Time (s) 0 P2-Sec 0 S1-Sec 0 S2-Sec Log(PGD)t(R=10Km) Magnitude (Mw)

Real-Time Magnitude Estimation 41 30 41 00 40

00 16 30 Simulation study for the calculation

M=5.5 Low-pass filtered Ground displacement

wave number method of Bouchon(1981) coded by

30 Real-Time Magnitude Estimation km Simulation study for the calculation of the magnitude in real time Earthquake of M=5.5 Low-pass filtered Ground displacement Synthetics are computed using the discrete wave number method of Bouchon(1981) coded by Coutant (1989) (AXITRA) Mag M5.5 Time from T0 (sec)

31 Rapid Shake Map Convertito et al., 2006

32 The End More details can be found on the following articles: A.Zollo, M.Lancieri and S.Nielsen (2006). Earthquake Magnitude Estimation From Peak Amplitudes of Very Early Seismic Signals on Strong Motion Records Geophysical Research Letters C.Satriano, A.Lomax and A.Zollo (2006). Optimal, real-time earthquake location for early Warning In P. Gasparini et al. editors, Seismic Early Warning, Springer-Verlag. E. Weber, G. Iannaccone, A. Zollo, A. Bobbio, L. Cantore, M. Corciulo, V. Convertito, M. Di Crosta, L. Elia, A. Emolo, C. Martino, A. Romeo, C. Satriano (2006). Development and testing of an advanced monitoring infrastructure (ISNet) for seismic early-warning applications in the Campania region of southern Italy In P. Gasparini et al. editors, Seismic Early Warning, Springer-Verlag. I.Iervolino, V. Convertito, M. Giorgio, G Manfredi and A Zollo (2006). Real-time risk analysis in hybrid earthquake early warning systems J.Earthq. Eng

33 Attenuation with distance Attenuation law for PDt log (P Dt) = f(m, R) = C + B M + A log(r) The observed peak amplitude are corrected for the distance effect by normalizing them to a reference distance of 10Km log ( P D 10Km t ) = log(p D obs t ) Alog ( R 10 )

The 2016, October 26, Central Italy Earthquake Origin Time 17:10:36 UTC, M L(ISNet) =5.3; M W(ISNet) =5.6

The 2016, October 26, Central Italy Earthquake Origin Time 17:10:36 UTC, M L(ISNet) =5.3; M W(ISNet) =5.6 RISSC-Lab: Laboratorio di RIcerca in Sismologia Sperimentale e Computazionale The event as seen