A non-marine record of eccentricity forcing through the Upper Triassic of. southwest England and its correlation with the Newark Basin APTS from North
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1 Kemp, p.1 A non-marine record of eccentricity forcing through the Upper Triassic of southwest England and its correlation with the Newark Basin APTS from North America David B. Kemp and Angela L. Coe 1. Goodness-of-fit statistical method Hounslow et al. (2004) suggested a correlation between the St. Audrie s Bay magnetostratigraphy and the magnetostratigraphy of the Newark Basin that was based primarily on correlating magnetozones between the two sections on the basis of their relative stratigraphic thickness. However, in our analysis we make no a priori assumption regarding the correlation between St. Audrie s Bay and the Newark Basin, and our statistical approach thus considers the possibility that any magnetozone identified in St. Audrie s Bay could match any magnetozone of the same polarity in the Newark Basin, regardless of its stratigraphic position. Our approach is thus entirely independent of any geological assumptions regarding the correlation (e.g. biostratigraphic age constraints, sedimentation rate assumptions etc.). Based on the recognition of an astronomical origin for the ~116 cm cyclicity identified in the color data (see main paper), we generated 4 different magnetostratigraphic age models for the St. Audrie s Bay succession by fixing the time interval between successive cycles identified in the stacked L* and a* time series at 21 k.y. (precession), 38 k.y. (obliquity), 100 k.y. (short eccentricity), or 404 k.y. (long eccentricity). The goodness-of-fit test statistic used to qualify the viability of a particular correlation was calculated using standard linear regression methods. We quantified
2 Kemp, p.2 the extent to which a given correlation scheme differs from the true theoretical correlation between St. Audrie s Bay and the Newark Basin of 1:1, i.e. where each magnetozone is of exactly the same duration in both sections (Fig. DR1). To do this we calculated the sum of squared residual values of each correlation away from an idealised 1:1 correlation (SS fit ) (Fig. DR1). To obtain a statistic, we normalise SS fit to the sum of the squared residuals that one would expect if there was no correlation between the two successions (SS mean ), which is obtained by setting the duration of each magnetozone in the St. Audrie s Bay succession to the mean value of the relevant age model (Fig. DR1). A calculated goodness-of-fit value is given by1-(ss fit / SS mean ). This procedure will yield goodness-of-fit values that are negative if the true 1:1 correlation fits the data worse than a horizontal line (i.e. if SS fit >SS mean, Fig. DR1). For our study, we have restricted the consideration of various age models and St. Audrie s Bay Newark Basin correlation schemes to those which possess a goodnessof-fit value of >0. Fig. DR1. Graphical illustration of goodness-of-fit correlation procedure using an example set of data. If the model data fit the target magnetostratigraphy data worse than a horizontal line, then the goodness-of-fit is negative.
3 Kemp, p.3 References cited Hounslow, M. W., Posen, P. E., and Warrington, G., 2004, Magnetostratigraphy and biostratigraphy of the Upper Triassic and lowermost Jurassic succession, St. Audrie s Bay, UK: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, v. 213, p
4 Kemp, p.4 2. Data table Table DR1. Full listing of all L* and a* data. Height from base of Blue Anchor Formation Sample Name L* a* 0.6 SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
5 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
6 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
7 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
8 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
9 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
10 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
11 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
12 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
13 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
14 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
15 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/ SA/0505/
16 Kemp, p SA/0505/ SA/0505/
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