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1 Canton du Valais, Service des forêts et du paysage (SFP), section des dangers naturels Kanton Graubünden, Amt für Wald Graubünden, Naturgefahren Regione Valle d Aosta, Dipartimento Difesa del Suolo e Risorse Idriche Regione Piemonte, Direzione Opere pubbliche, Difesa del Suolo, Economia Montana e Foreste Regione Lombardia, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell Ambiente Arpa Lombardia, Direzione Generale Protezione Civile, Prevenzione e Polizia Locale Arpa Piemonte, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale SLF, WSL-Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF AINEVA, Associazione Interregionale Neve e Valanghe

2 How snow cover properties influence avalanche dynamics Walter Steinkogler 1,2 Jochen Veitinger 1,3, Betty Sovilla 1, Michael Lehning 1,2 1 WSL-Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF 2 CRYOS, Faculté de L environnement naturel, architectural et construit, EPFL, Lausanne 3 Geographisches Institut, Universität Zürich

3 Content The MOTIVATION The MODELS (Alpine3D/SNOWPACK/RAMMS) The RESULTS for winter 2012/13 in VDLS The POSSIBLE APPLICATIONS The (far) FUTURE

4 Motivation practical view Avalanches directly affect safety of many mountain communities Roads Ski slopes Railway

5 Snow cover properties influence Motivation scientific view the mass balance by defining the potential of entrainment of additional mass Key parameters: erosion depth density... the development of flow regimes and granulation Key parameters: temperature, density, moisture content, granular size

6 Motivation scientific view RAMMS - Rapid mass movements - 3D avalanche dynamics model Alpine3D / SNOWPACK - spatially distributed (surface), threedimensional (atmospheric) model Used for hazard mapping in Switzerland Recent large improvements in modelling of snow distribution in alpine terrain Missing link: Influence of snow properties on flow dynamics

7 Motivation What can be used by practitioners directly and indirectly?! Research Practitioneer!!! Your input is needed Discussion/workshop!!!

8 Differences in mobility - 2 avalanches from VDLS dataset - Similar initial conditions (release area) but very different mobility Example 1 Example 2

9 Differences in mobility - 2 avalanches from VDLS dataset - Similar initial conditions (release area) but very different mobility Example 1 Example 2 Temperature granulation mobility Deposition structures: Example 1: fan-shaped deposition, uniform granule distribution Example 2: Flow-fingers, strong levee formation and big granules

10 Alpine3D Modeling: supplementary data spatial distribution of snow and its properties Alpine3D spatially distributed (surface), 3D (atmospheric) model Input: multiple automatic weather stations Grid: with 25 m cell resolution

11 Alpine3D - HS Practitioneer: Is the absolute snow height important in my area or avalanche path (roughness, release area size, )??

12 Alpine3D dhs Practitioneer: Is the 24 hour new snow height important in my area (small vs. extreme avalanches)??

13 Alpine3D TS40 Practitioneer: Is the snow temperature important in my avalanche path (cold/warm avalanches, cold in release and warm in the runout, )??

14 Alpine3D TS

15 Alpine3D/SNOWPACK Snow cover model SNOWPACK allows full snow pack information at every grid cell Temperature profile at selected points along avalanche path A B C D

16 Alpine3D TS40 & Radar For example picture see Sovilla-Intro.pdf Snow temperature modeled with Alpine3D Avalanche front velocity measured with Radar For example picture see Sovilla-Intro.pdf

17 Applications: RAMMS - Including temperature effects in RAMMS - Allows coupling to snow cover models (Alpin3D) RAMMS - Especially important for non-extreme avalanches (Vera et. al., Thermal temperature in avalanche flow; ISSW 2012) Alpine3D RAMMS SNOWPACK

18 The (far) future Further developing and combining of avalanche & snow cover models - Especially for non-extreme avalanches - From quasi-real time to forecasting - Forecasting for larger and data sparse regions - Regional hazard mapping Alpine3D RAMMS

19 Research Practitioneer What does the practitioneer need???

20 Appendix APPENDIX

21 Alpine3D / SNOWPACK Full SNOWPACK output at every grid cell. VDS 1 FMCW A FMCW B FMCW C VDS 1 FMCW A FMCW B FMCW C - Wet snow avalanche activity? - Accurate enough for (rough) stratigraphy? Yes for dynamics, but also for LWD?

22 Alpine3D/SNOWPACK Snow cover model SNOWPACK allows full snow pack information at every grid cell Temperature profile at selected points along avalanche path VDS 1 FMCW A FMCW B FMCW C