MEDEX, MEDiterranean EXperiment on "Cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean" Working Group on Social Impact

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1 MEDEX, MEDiterranean EXperiment on "Cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean" Working Group on Social Impact Activity Rapport February 2004-October 2004 Maria-Carmen Llasat Department of Astronomy and Meteorology. University of Barcelona 1. Introduction The Social Impact Research (SIR) branch within MEDEX was initiated during the Workshop on Social Impact Research in MEDEX, held in Barcelona (Spain), between 23 and 24 February Its main objective is the exchange of knowledge about magnitude and type of the social impacts related with Mediterranean cyclones. Methodologies in social impact research as well as a general discussion oriented to the identification of guidelines to design a realistic Social Impact Research branch in MEDEX are also intended. This Workshop allowed the direct contact and exchange of opinion between social sciences, engineering researchers, civil protection, reinsurance companies and meteorologists. In order to achieve the objectives of the SIR, the main research lines followed those proposed for contribution to this Workshop: - Objectives and methodologies about social impact research of weather phenomena - Methodologies of impact evaluation - Sources of data about impacts - Impact description or evaluation in particular cases of Mediterranean storms - Methodologies and examples about relation intensity-impact - Impact mitigation in general - Impact mitigation in specific cases - Sensitivity to the impact mitigation of the quality of forecasting - Forecasting quality measurement for Mediterranean storms 2. The Working Group on Social Impact A provisional Working Group on SIR was proposed during the Barcelona meeting, with the following composition: - Miquel Grimalt, University of Balearic Islands, Spain, dctmgg0@uib.es - Alessandro Delitala, Servizio Agrometeorologico Sardegna, Italy, delitala@sar.sardegna.it - Charles Doswell III, Oklahoma University, USA, doswell@llamp.uib.es - Miquel Gayà, INM, CMT Balearic Islands, Spain, gaya@inm.es - Giuseppina Monacelli, Hydrological Service, APAT, Italy, giuseppina.monacelli@apat.it - Isabelle Ruin, Grenoble University, France, isabelle.ruin@laposte.net

2 - Branka Ivançan-Picek, Meteorological-Hydrological Service, Croatia, - Evelyne Richard, L. d Aerologie, Toulouse, France, rice@aero.obs-mip.fr - Maria-Carmen Llasat (coordinator), University of Barcelona, Spain, carmell@am.ub.es The preliminary work contemplated the following items: To select the events with the highest impact recorded since 1995 To built a questionnary in order to send it to the different members of MEDEX to create some similar to a database in order to evaluate the damages produced by an extraordinary or catastrophic event. To collect available information about impacts from homogeneous sources (i.e., insurances companies, like CCS in Spain), systematic research (i.e. climatic research on flood events made by the UIB and UB teams) or complementary data (i.e. impact analysis of specific cases, particularly MEDEX cases). Realization of Retour d Experiences (i.e. Gard, 2002), centered in the impact aspects Propagation of the meteorological forecasting (cyclones and severe weather) over the alert chain. Evaluation of the vulnerability versus the forecasting (i.e. which could be the impact of a mistake in the forecasting of a cyclone position?) Application to the sensibilization of the society in front of this severe weather 3. Activity developed 3.1. Main events identification A preliminary list with the main damage events produced in the Mediterranean Region since 1990 was built (Table 1). This list also includes information about the damages and references of research works made for the different events. However, this preliminary table did not contain some MEDEX cases of low or medium priority. Date Localisation Number of Estimated Other casualties damages 01/10/1990 S France CEMAGREF (1990) 15/11/1990 Crotone (I) Petrucci et al (1992) 02/06/1992 SE France Marnezy (1993) 22-23/09/1992 Vaisson-la- Romaine(F), Savona (I) meuros Labarthe (2003) Regione 26-28/09/1992 Languedoc- Rousillon (F) Genoa (I) mff 10 meuros Duband (2003) CNR(1994) 03-06/10/1992 Veneto (I) 10 meuros 31/10/1992 Costa del me Tirreno, Sicilia (I) 11/1992 Crotone (I) Petrucci et al

3 (1992) 23/09/1993 Liguria 01/11/1993 Corcega Labarthe (2003) 01/1994 Francia 10/1994 Athens (Gr) 14 me 10/10/1994 Catalonia (S) 4-6/11/1994 Piemonte (I) 64 13,000 me 1994 Greece 14mE 19-25/4/1995 Piemonte (I) Regione 11/08/1995 La Ciotat (F) 30 19/09/1995 Friuli (I) 2 4-6/10/1995 Nimes (F) 1 10 me Liguria (I) 19/06/1996 Versilia (I) 13 08/07/1996 Piemonte (I) Regione 07/08/1996 Biescas (S) /10/1996 Piemonte (I) Regione 08/10/1996 Emilia- Romagna, Calabria (I) 1 14/10/1996 Crotone (I) GNCDI 1997 Badajoz (S) Sarno (I) /5/1999 Piemonte Regione 12/07/1999 Roumania 12-13/11/1999 Aude (F) Labarthe (2003) 10-14/6/2000 Catalonia (S) Piemonte 09/2000 Soverato (I) /10/2000 Piemonte, Val d Aosta, Liguria (I) 19-25/10/2000 Catalonia, Murcia (S) Balearic Islands (S) 8-9/09/2002 Gard (F) + others Dep 5 65 me Llasat et al (2003) Regione 5 >37 me me 1200 me Tropeano (2003) Conesa-García et al, (2003) 6 and 23/11/2000 Liguria (I) /11/2001 Argelia > m argelian dinars Gard Report (2003) 29-1/12/2002 Lombardia (I) 0 13,6 me.

4 3.2 First questionnary An was sent to all the members of the WG on SIR, with copy to Dr. Jansà and Dr. Alpert, during the month of April. This included Table 1 and asked for more information about each event (damages, casualties, references and so on) and for adding other important events not included here and recorded since This exercise should have been useful to achieve two objectives: - To writte the most suitable questionnary (optimistic but realistic) - To have a preliminar list of events. A proposal to publish future methodology and results in NHESS was included Web page with case studies As we have told the goal of the WG SIR is to analyse the social benefits of the MEDEX project achievements, both from the economic and prevention point of view. To do it, the following items have been contemplated: a) selection of the main events recorded in the last years in the different countries involved in the MEDEX project b) compilation and analysis of all the information about the damages produced by those events c) preparation of some tools to awake the historic memory of the population in front of those events d) evaluation of the benefits on floods and severe weather prevention/prediction thanks to the MEDEX results Following items a, b and c, a compilation of some presentations about the different cases that have produced high impact weather events in Spain in the last years is presented in the following web page. in the Natural Hazards/MEDEX chapter. This page is also linked with the main MEDEX page. At present it contains 13 cases with information about the damages, the actuations and some meteorological features Other activities directly related with the SIR objectives The following papers have been published: Llasat, M.C., M. Barnolas, M. Cereruelo, M. Llasat, M.A. Prat, 2004: Algunos aspectos del impacto social de las inundaciones en Cataluña. RAM: Revista del Aficionado a la Meteorología, Llasat, M.C., (in press): La vulnérabilité en Catalogne et la perception sociale. La Houille Blanche 4. Future activities - Participation in the RINAMED FORUM ON MASS-MEDIA about natural risks that will be held in Barcelona next October Integration of MEDEX cases (medium and high priority) in Table 1 - Closing the questionnary before end of the year and sending to the MEDEX members

5 Possible integration into the WG on SIR of new people. Collaboration with other experts although they are no members of the MEDEX project (including experts in social and economic sciences)