20 TH CENTURY CLIMATE OF THE ACCESS OCEAN MODEL UNDER CO-ORDINATED OCEAN-ICE REFERENCE EXPERIMENTS

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1 20 TH CENTURY CLIMATE OF THE ACCESS OCEAN MODEL UNDER CO-ORDINATED OCEAN-ICE REFERENCE EXPERIMENTS Simon Marsland ACCESS Ocean Modeller 9 October 2013 MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH

2 With Dave Bi, Petteri Uotila, Arnold Sullivan, and Katja Lorbacher OVERVIEW ACCESS-CM and ACCESS-OM Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator WCRP CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability OCEANS & CLIMATE: variability, predictability and change WGOMD CLIVAR Working Group on Ocean Model Development CORE Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments 2 ACCESS OCEAN CORE Simon Marsland

3 ACCESS = Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator ACCESS-OM = Ocean and Sea Ice Model USA: Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE4.0 sea ice code USA: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory MOM4p1 ocean code UK: Met Office Unified Model atmospheric code + UKCA chemistry France: CERFACS OASIS coupling code ACCESS ACCESS-OM Australia: CABLE carbon, land surface, and vegetation model ACCESS is being developed by the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, a partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, with Australian universities particularly the ARC CoE for Climate System Science It delivers national capability in numerical weather prediction, seasonal forecasting, ocean climate modelling, and coupled model climate change simulation. 3 ACCESS OCEAN CORE Simon Marsland

4 ACCESS CMIP5 Publications: AMOJ 2013 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 63(1), 2013 Special issue on Australian CMIP5 models - 10 ACCESS papers Bi et al., ACCESS-CM Bi et al., ACCESS-OM Dix et al., CMIP5 simulations and forcing Rashid et al., Atmosphere Rashid et al., ENSO Marsland et al., Ocean Uotila et al., Sea Ice Kowalczyk et al., Land Surface Watterson et al., Atmospheric metrics Sun et al., CAWCR Atmospheric physics

5 Historical Period ACCESS coupled climate model ACCESS1.0/1.3 delivered to CMIP5 ACCESS used for IPCC AR5 Global Skill Scores Watterson et al., AMOJ, Surface temperature - Pressure - Precipitation - Climatology and annual cycle 5 ACCESS OCEAN CORE Simon Marsland

6 Historical relative RMSE Metrics IPCC AR5 Figure 9.7 <- BETTER / WORSE -> 42 CMIP5 MODELS 6 ACCESS OCEAN CORE Simon Marsland

7 CLIVAR OCEANS & CLIMATE variability, predictability and change WCRPs project on ocean-atmosphere interactions To improve understanding and prediction of ocean-atmosphere interactions and their influence on climate variability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment. WCRP Grand Challenges WMAC, Brazil - 27 May 2013

8 Proposed Core Panels Ocean Model Development Panel Global Synthesis and Observations Panel Atlantic Region Panel Pacific Region Panel Indian Ocean Region Panel Southern Ocean Region Panel Monsoons Panel ETCCDI Knowledge Exchange and Capacity Building Panel Focused& Integrated Res. Opportunities predictability of monsoon systems biophysical interactions and dynamics of upwelling systems Prediction and attribution of extreme events ocean heat storage Decadal climate variability and predictability Dynamics of regional sea level variability ENSO in a warmer climate NEW Key areas for progress in the next 5-10 years

9 CLIVAR Working Group on Ocean Model Development (WGOMD) G. Danabasoglu (co-chair) National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA H. Drange (co-chair) University of Bergen, Norway E. Curchitser Rutgers University, USA M. Winton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., NOAA, USA S. Marsland CSIRO, CAWCR, Australia H. Johnson Dept of Earth Science, University of Oxford, UK H. Tsujin Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan D. Holland Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, USA K. Fennel Dalhousie University, Canada G. Nurser National Oceanography Center, UK Emeritus C. Böning Institut für Meereskunde, Kiel, Germany A. M. Treguier Laboratoire de Physique de Océans, IFREMER, France R. Gerdes Alfred Wegener Institut für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Germany E. Chassignet Florida State University, USA

10 CORE II Experiments Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments Phase II - CORE-II An experimental protocol for ocean sea-ice coupled simulations forced with inter-annually varying atmospheric data sets for the period (Large and Yeager 2009). These hindcast simulations provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving ocean models investigating mechanisms for seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal variability evaluating the robustness of mechanisms across models, complementing data assimilation in bridging observations and modeling and in providing ocean initial conditions for climate prediction simulations. Overarching hypothesis: Global ocean sea-ice models integrated using the same interannually varying atmospheric forcing data sets produce qualitatively very similar mean and variability in their simulations. WMAC, Brazil - 27 May 2013

11 WGOMD CORE-II PROTOCOL The models are integrated for a minimum of 300 years, corresponding to 5 cycles of the 60-year forcing period. After an assessment of degree of equilibrium achieved, the solutions from the last cycle are analyzed. The participating groups are free in their choices of sea-ice models and surface salinity restoring in their ocean components. The CORE datasets are periodically updated (currently through 2009) and collaboratively supported by NCAR and GFDL.

12 CORE II PARTICIPATING GROUPS - 18 models: - Australia: CSIRO (ACCESS) - France: CERFACS, CNRM - Germany: AWI, IfM-GEOMAR (KIEL) - Italy: CMCC, ICTP - Japan: MRI (free, DA) - Norway: U. Bergen - Russia: RAS (INMOM) - UK: NOCS - USA: FSU, GFDL-GOLD, GFDL-MOM, MIT, NASA GISS, NCAR Level, isopycnal, hybrid, mass, and sigma coordinates; unstructured finite element ocean model; mostly nominal 1 o resolution WMAC, Brazil - 27 May 2013

13 North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase-ii (CORE-II) (Mean States) G. Danabasoglu, S. G. Yeager, D. Bailey, E. Behrens, M. Bentsen, D. Bi, A. Biastoch, C. Boening, A. Bozec, V. M. Canuto, C. Cassou, E. Chassignet, A. C. Coward, S. Danilov, N. Diansky, H. Drange, R. Farneti, E. Fernandez, P. G. Fogli, G. Forget, Y. Fujii, S. M. Griffies, A. Gusev, P. Heimbach, A. Howard, T. Jung, M. Kelly, W. G. Large, A. Leboissetier, J. Lu, G. Madec, S. J. Marsland, S. Masina, A. Navarra, A. J. G. Nurser, A. Pirani, D. Salas y Melia, B. L. Samuels, M. Scheinert, D. Sidorenko, A.-M. Treguier, H. Tsujino, P. Uotila, S. Valcke, A. Voldoire, Q. Wang Danabasoglu et al., Ocean Modelling, 2013, accepted with minor revision

14 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Sv) AMOC Mean ( ) in Depth Space Danabasoglu et al., Ocean Modelling, 2013, accepted with minor revision

15 AMOC at 26.5 o N (Sv) ( ) Danabasoglu et al., Ocean Modelling, 2013, accepted with minor revision

16 March-Mean Mixed Layer Depth ( ) Based on a density change of kg m -3 from the surface Danabasoglu et al., Ocean Modelling, 2013, accepted with minor revision

17 Griffies et al, CLIVAR Exchanges 62(18), August 2013 Griffies et al, Ocean Modelling, in prep, 2013

18 Thermosteric Sea Level Rise (0-700 m): CORE Models versus observed CORE MODELS LEVITUS et al 2012 DOMINGUES et al 2008 Trend (mm/yr) CORE Models in general agreement with observed patterns of thermosteric sea level rise Griffies et al, CLIVAR Exchanges 62(18), August 2013 Griffies et al, Ocean Modelling, in prep, ACCESS OCEAN CORE Simon Marsland

19 Thermosteric Sea Level Rise (0-700 m): CORE Models versus observed Griffies et al, CLIVAR Exchanges 62(18), August 2013 Griffies et al, Ocean Modelling, in prep, 2013 Trend in models weaker than observed 60 year CORE periodicity damps longer term trends? Variability in better agreement with Domingues et al. (2008) than Levitus et al. (2012) 19 ACCESS OCEAN CORE Simon Marsland

20 CORE II Special Issue Papers submitted or in preparation: North Atlantic simulations with a focus on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Part I: Mean states; Part II: Variability (Danabasoglu, Yeager, & Bailey, et al.), Global and regional sea level (Griffies & Yin, et al.), Arctic Ocean and sea-ice (Gerdes, Wang, & Drange, et al.), The Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean overturning circulation with a focus on eddy compensation (Farneti & Downes, et al.), Evolution of Southern Ocean water masses and ventilation (Downes & Farneti, et al.), South Atlantic simulations (Treguier & Weiner, et al.), Ocean circulation in temperature and salinity space (Nurser & Zika, et al.), Indian Ocean heat and sea level variability and change (Ravichandran et al.).

21 CLIVAR/WGOMD CORE WGOMD are actively promote the use and analysis of the CORE-II solutions. The data are freely available. NCAR has agreed to host and curate the datasets on its ESGF node and is currently testing the service with the NCAR datasets. Information will be available soon on how to access the centralized dataset via the CORE-II website. In the meantime, people can contact the individual modeling groups to obtain the data. ACCESS CORE STUDIES Tropical Pacific Feedbacks Bjerknes Index study (Graham et al., 2013 in prep) ACCESS Sea Ice Concentration study (Uotila et al, 2013 in prep next talk)

22 Thank you CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Dr Simon Marsland ACCESS Ocean Modeller e simon.marsland@csiro.au w CSIRO MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH

23 ACCESS Model Ocean-Sea Ice Grid 360x300x50 Horizontal: Global tripolar with resolution of 360 x 300; Longitudinal: uniform 1 ; Latitudinal: Equatorial meridional refinement: 1/3 10 S-10 N; Mercator grid in Southern Ocean: 1 at 30 S to 0.25 at 78 S. Vertical: 50-level ocean covering m with a resolution ranging from 10m (for above 200m column) to 250 m (for the abyssal ocean) 23

24 ACCESS ESM ACCESS OPS M e t Assimilation Dynamic Vegetation VAR Atmosphere O f f i c e What we are aiming to develop as the ACCESS Earth System Model Land Surface Including Carbon transfer Coupler Atmospheric Chemistry Sea Ice Ocean Biogeochemistry/ Carbon cycle Ocean BODAS 24 ACCESS OCEAN CORE Simon Marsland OBS

25 CMIP5 Historical Portrait Plot (Gleckler) 25 ACCESS OCEAN CORE Simon Marsland