! " 89: ?+ XM - .8M- J " j! G _k EZ-FRISK.
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4 /) *+, ;'4&9 & " 3 % 5A4> %'> J :; G4> (1385 #\$) P4F 3 " CJ:, V "' & & ;',2 O 2 " i!4$ G4> % %#.(1388$)(Berberian,1976) H' V' G4> T 'A#& 150 # ( ;" G4> :;" G4>.(Mostafazade,2006)"$" (* 5 R/ ;" 5 O P 'A#& 10 '*& AbI & CJ:,q 'I> = $ %#* ' # & )"#, G4> :"#, G4>. 'I "2 PR (* 7 ' "#, r'!4$ 6 4 & ") "#, 72/12/4 ) %#) l)+ :A P G4>.(1389'$Q&) P4F 3 (:I #4 5A4> "#, G4>. '0> 'A#& 185 # ; G4> ( (* *!# CJ: G4> % & CJ: & "= \= G4> :"= \= G4>.(Berberian,1976) "#?& ;'4&9 G O >"/ K l+ & " (1355!$) ;J ; & $ [5 G4> J r'!4$ s# -* "$ / 6\$ G4>.(Partabian et al., 2016) " B "' \M? J#$'J2 5?$ (* 2 / 6\$ M (* *4= * s#?i, V "' G4> T G4> % ; (:I ;?$ ;/ "' # J#$'J2I 6:3. 'I 'A#& 250 (.(1384s#3 ;!5H$) :F G " " -2." / <* $ ;' #IV "F '#9 i= %# "' ISC t2& (Engdahl) ("H$ t2& "2!+ 'I> =,' %" & H9 #9 k9 70 k9 " #52 t2& 5$.# t2& (AA* %# &).I> =,' ": 6!F M 2 * ;/ ;" G& ": %#u* S'W*+ 2 W*+ [& i$ r!r '4> % #:I & "& 'J$ % 6+Q % v'$ * F3 A4> (*: :3 3 t "." '4> %# #@ &."& *$ 8 F3 A4> '#*+ $$& W*+ " "$ 6 & V' "$ i$ G4> " V'?I i$ :3.(3GJ 2GJ)" "'4 R ) = O P ) PR (* Q 3G GJ G %.I> $ A 5@ 6#A*+ T 6 b ;2 %# 3 *' / %##:2 G A." *?@ %##:2 X#M?2 A %#'4M$. " ;?$ 3 :3 3 ' %# S s >"& 3 PM'$." # ' 9
5 AB(? -'5 7;6< = > # #9 %# > %# ;J %# "+ r'5$." *' B A %#*M2 $ " (*' %# 6& ' 9 " s#&2 [ %# 6& ' 9.(Reiter,1990) ;'4# ;' %# (:I G4>?$ (P).;'4@A ;'4# ;' %# $$& &-(L) :2N9.MrSID \2 ;'4@A.(Reiter, 1990)*' B %# 3 / :3 N9
6 /) *+, J (*'-$9 <2 T?> & % wi 3 G#AF2 82 sar $9 2K:."& #9 -" - 'x $J $ AbI \M? ":2 x T *?@ 3 ' " = #$ 6!F 8$ 5 '*& ' 9 & % ;2 "& #9 > G'4 " -$ S' $9 "$ -1."& s#&2 H"J ":' T " J wi " -$. / " XM? *?@ T %#: ; T " ":2 <2 (*' ;9 "I. & '=!4$ <= -$ " - ;J J & " GJ $9 "$ T M m := T G=" (*' % 6!+ <= $# ; G'4 & % wi [X(t);t>0] H$/ " t ; <= ":2 X(t) >."$ x ; N & $ H' T N %# 5?! {&" 9. XM? (1) (I A# "/ ; (1) 3 G#AF2 T '4 ($#?> ) H' T N 3." G#J?2 " *?@ fm(m). H' 2 <! AbI r >.!F (2)(I A#, *?@ T m " ;?$ (2) %# & XM? 3 T a* G#AF2 & > %'J@& 6!+ > %#9 ;& m0. > *' [&2 <2 "#2 *?@ '$ & > %'?# 6!+ K ;& mmax. " 'I> $ #:I -$ ;* vi A# m0 > %#9 ;& '?# & 3 $I (*' & >"#& (" T 6!+ & *?@ " C."J# XM? - H' *' [&2 <2 A# H' i *?@ i=."& AbI & 2. I: > %# AbI " (*' " H' ;J 3 2 5#> *2 " - *?@ & "F *2 K (H'$. XM? (:I *?@ *2 [5 <* H' T 3 {&".#> {&" >. H' J$ (:I *?@ X G#AF2 2#n& $ %. ",' EZ_FRISK-7.52 (.) "/ " I$ m9 % 3 G#AF2." 8$ "$' 5,' K *4= " ',> s3 W3 3
7 AB(? -'5 7;6< = > 5 59 *?@ :3 %."' $ LA'M 52 b *?@ 6,' *?@ i$ C > *' <2!F *?@ ". ",' 3 G#AF2." 3 (I 6 b!f (*: GJ 59 *?@." (3) W*+ #$ h!f I AbI & ( 3$ *?@ J wi ) $$& AbI R ;/ & M R G'4 & "'4 'x K :." *?@.& 4 (I G"!2 ;2 3 (I."'4 (4)."/ ; = & A " :*82 <2 <2 T ;/ & "$" I$ % "$"# }@ *A+ 6?$ "!F # & >"#& (*: 6K: 6 b > <2."&,' XM? H' 5 s : " = ' & % (5 (I). w, *$ <2 T (5) XM? Q!= & > " $'/ ;/ & x T ;/ & : A# AbI <2." - *?@ %J* & > %'?# " AbI!F H'M#4> "$ >. #>"$ H'!4$ ;/ #> 5 ;/ AbI *?@ T A# ( "F T )59 *?@ T. > '4 AbI <2 H$/ ~F W3 & S2 ;/ 6\'M A# :A"@ :."$ XM? W*+ T I F,b :A"@ 6\'M " ;?$ Y X & 6\M? I J 6 b ;J & " wi *4= %.(4 GJ) N$ #IV H'M#4> - [#$ & wi % A# H' AbI 6,' #:. " <2 :A"@ J " <2 W*+ J 6 b H'M#4> $=I *4= J *+ 6 b "!F ' 9 '4 "F ( T 3$ *?@ T 6 b %J* H'M#4> T >. (" 52*/ +*8 T A# H'!4$ H'M#4> #> 5. 6*/ %"@ >." " #> 5 H' * ;/ H$/,' H'M#4> 5 6*/." " <2 J 6 b H$/ " ",'
8 /) *+, ( I$ * 'I>) *?@ T GJ 6\'M $*$ :4 N9 6 (I 6 b "$' 3 : " Qb GJ A# ;2 #$ j *?@ 3!F. 8$ (6) & :A"@ *?@ <2 GF ( 6!+ H' I AbI ;/ &."& ;# *?@ 4 i: H'.A" g ET -5" of > :," *?@ %2[5 '0> 6:3.9 % %# # 6:3 C " ;'4@A ;'4# ;' 59 *?@ 25 A&."$" I:3 H'M#4> >"&9 #$ C :3 % (Mirzaei et al.,19) ; J* #) H *?@ $ - %# 4#V 3 F3 *$ 1 (" 5 GJ *?@ % *2 & " I A!= 25 <* #$. "/.8 + > `, > Kp,G G > " -3!x W*+ #*& ( *?@ " )!x W*+ #?# 59 - & C :U(!x (Focal mechanism) %# $$& [4#$J "/!F( ) " (1 (")."!F #*& & "!F Mw >! *?@ *' G#4$'9 #*& #?# :_ W#F2 % & " 'I> $ G#AF2 & > %'J@& 6!+ > %#9 ;& $ 6x G#AF2 #4,2 %ƒ*3 ;' J. ",'! %#
9 AB(? -'5 7;6< = >! %# ;+ & XM? " T '> %# 4 *$,' %# ;?$ Mc " ',> t2& ;" G& "/I % Q3b & & 'I> $ (Mmax)K ;&.(6GJ )>,' (Wiemer,2001) ZMAP I $ Mc "!F. G#4$'9 C &" - *?@ '$ & > %'?# 6!+.(1 (") "!F (Nowroozi,2010,) 3 C ;'4@A ;'4# ;' (:I G4> & " *?@ * " ;?$ "+."$" XM? :A"@ 6 b & *?@ 3 (:I 5A4> #:= :5 N9. " / 1(" 5$/ ' 9
10 /) *+, $ '? -t!2> 3 J#I> *$ Mc " / :6 N9 : #:I -$ :q G=" '> > *?@ - %# ":2 ;& [#42 #:I -$ '?# i *?@ i=. "/ " $ $ ( ) " %##:2 >.(1 (") I: #:I -$ A# > %#9 ;& :( #:I ;#)β ' 9 :- Youngs and )$ #$ :*82 6 b ;2 '? t!2> 3.(Coppersmith,1985 : β Mc;*! > H$# & "$2 & " > " ;?$ m." b-value a-value H$# s#22 a, b S % %# ":2 H$# m '?# > %# ":2 H$#." "+ #?# (*' %#*M2 B,' ' 9 / B J.(6 GJ) m0. '?# > L:2 G A& 6 b :3 '4> %# " "$ B %." J2 B :
11 AB(? -'5 7;6< = > = M # > %# $# " "$ 3 % J " '4> ;/ # ' 9 > & 'x " '4> ",b '>.(249:1376 % / $& 9) > 4#$ I& ;/ N # ' 9 %##:2 *?@ #:I / 6+Q ;#I#b $52 )?# 6!F %N+*8,' 3 8,' *?@ 6+Q ;/ SI.1/796 ;' G& C *?@ +*8 #:Ik9(49:1389 ' 9 ".?#!F *?@ 9 K8Q = -4 >"#& S ;J " 2 K 5$/ " s4& P 82 6+Q A# 9 9 i= 2 ( 2 & >"#& S :3.>,' :3 '4> ;M* '! 2"" ; ' %# ' %# %# S >. 2 " Q+ ;5 *2 Campbell, ) #> Gn*& S "$6!+ & " 82 >"#& S %/ #> Gn*& (NGA)(Abrahamson and Silva,2008) A# /.9 % (NGA)(and Bozorgnia, 2008.(Campbell and Bozorgnia,2003)
12 /) *+, :3 3 *?@ 5#>. ' 9 :1!G8C
13 AB(? -'5 7;6< = > (The Next Generation Attenuation)NGA m9 " 5" ( >"#& 3 & 2*"= 5" ("."'4 (products/nga_project.html/ 'I> =,' " 8$ ; & & I :F G " " =A N -Q (8 XM? ;/ & S2 & 5I C XM? H' 3 3 G#AF2 "I T J ;/ 5#>. " - 8& "$6!+ 5I %."&!F " F ;+ F2 3 " %"@ i= (*' [. " $H@ ;/ $ %#!. & XM? " T (*' 3 #>"$ ;2 F %. I: 3 XM? 5 "+ 5 "$#> =,' 3 G#AF2 5 & 2#n& $ ƒ2 "#u#9 6!F ( & "&,' 5H'$ '#9 *' <2 ;& %,' 5."/ 5$/ "5+ ' 2!n& 5*' H & "& G"!2 5> & "I." XM? H' T 3 #$/ C " #2 (EZ_FRISK -7.52) :3 G % J 2 J2 H' T #! "$#> =,' 3?$ "#2 5 kn.#> 8$ "'4 [ \M? AbI & (H' T ;+ 3$ )N$ J! :3 % N 6!F 8$.,' "59?$ #52 5 N$ % "/ " EZ- I$ A# 3$ 776 i*8 'A#& 20*20 GbI N$ J! %'I> $ ' 9 *?@ " " s4& 6+Q. 'I09 6 b (2010) FRISK (9 c)h' ;4J S C " I $ (5 GJ 1 (")5$/ N " jm' 3 F 3$ (%# 3 K ' 30 j +) "b (*' " 59 ": %#"#$! P' #?# Gb v'$ kn " ( ?> " ;?$ s#22 & ;*' 50 "#, *+! P' ( 475 (*' J 2.(8 GJ 7GJ) "!F '4 c.(8 GJ)"/ (455?> 2800 $ %#/ C 3?$ "
14 /) *+, & ;*' 50 "#, *+ "b (}) 2 (P)5(L)63 (*' %#." ( ?> " ;?$ s#22 "#$! P' #?#?$ :7 N9 ` 3 "59 (P).(( 475?> ) ;*' 50 "#,*+ %10 (*' %# P' #?# (L) : 8 N $ %#/ C >K M 6,'?> {& " P' #!?#9 > J %# "#$! P' #?#?$ "$ 6!+ (g) $> P' s ?> s#22 & "
15 AB(? -'5 7;6< = > 3 " 59?$ "/ v'$.0/74 2 0/4 0 0/58 2 0/30 0/42 2 0/12 0/21 2 0/65 6+Q % 2 & 0/42 20/12 %#(PGA)%#"#$! P' #?# 6##V2 " ;?$ [#42!4$ ;'4@A ;'4# ;' M c 9 2!+ I/ "+ wi 0/ 35 # P'#?# A#!4$ 3$ "$ 6!+ (g) $> P' s4 & = = (* W 2"*+ & 3 0/35 2 0/30 ;# P' #?# W % ;' [5 Ab 5A4> 2"*+ & ;' *4= $# 3 ;' * *4= 0/ 25 ;# P' #?# W G S' 3$."$ G = $ '*& P' #?# W [& 3 $ 7: 0/25 2 0/20 P'. 0/3 02."$ = ;' O (* PR P 2"*+ & "& XM? [& A# 3$0/20 = %53 K 3 %30 K A#3 $ ;' 4 "b 17 v'$ % C ;' 5 %2 #:*9 & ;: ;" 5 "F $,'."$ = 3 2 %#9 s2 "$. = #4 3 "F r. 579 ˆ?& $":6I?'&%# ; 6?'$. ;%# (1383) A+ "# 2!$=/.;52 5 '4> T$ 6x 2 J3.270.ˆ '?5 "#5 H?$ 6?'$ T#$'J2 (1376) ;5 % / %4F $& 9 L# %##:2 (1389) # 9 ;#I#b %4F $ Xb 1 * ;'42.4 S#F ;*+ "5 ;'4# H?$ T#$'J2 " & $;9 ; G4> J#$'J2I ' G#AF2 (1388) $ "#: 132ˆ.;'4@A T#$'J2 " & $;9 ; O ;"!5$ PR (* 3 R $ G4>! :3 (1391 ),: #,b.;'4@a ;'4# H?$ ;'4# H?$ T#$'J2 " & $;9 h 5& G4> T#$ 'J2ƒ$ T#$'J2I (1385) #\$ 4#+. 127ˆ.;'4@A ' %# M X T*& ;" G4> /"#, G4> %# '& N!2 (1389) '$Q&!'8 119ˆ.;'4@A ;'4# H?$T#$'J2" & $;9 '%# 5 %J4 6 "2800 "$' ;*' $ %#/ (1378) %J4. 67ˆ.;'4@A ;'4# H?$?.9.;" G4> ;#9 #F2(1373 ) Vb A+ ;*' 6#F2 &.253ˆ $*I " ) / 6\$ G4> 7 / 8 [&2 B (:I T#$'J2 (1384) s#3 "5 "*F ;!5H$ "5.%# A+ *> %# 5@ 4#(;
16 /) *+, ˆ?& $": 6I?'& %#; 6?'$ ; )%4 "*F.;!$ %#!4$ 3 "59(1376)5 %J46 Abrahamson, N. A., Silva, W. J. (2008), Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA Ground-Motion Relations, Earthquake Spectra, 24(1), Ambraseys, N. N., Melville, C. P. (1982), A History of Persian Earthquakes Cambridge University Press, 219pp. Berberian, M. (1976), Contribution to the seismotectonics of Iran (part II). Geol. Surv. Iran, 39, 518p. Campbell, K. W., Bozorgnia, Y. (2008), NGA Ground Motion Model for the Geometric Mean Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5% Damped Linear Elastic Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 s, Earthquake Spectra, 24(1), Campbell K. W., Bozorgnia Y. (2003), Updated Near-Source Ground Motion (Attenuation) Relation for the Horizontal and Vertical Components of Peak Ground Acceleration and Acceleration Response Spectra.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 93 (1) EZ-FRISK Risk Engineering. (2010), Software for Earthquake Ground Motion Estimation, Boulder, Colorado. Mirzaei, N., Mengtan, G., Yuntai, C. (1998), Delineation of potential seismic sources for seismic zoning of Iran, Journal of Seismology 3, Mostafazade, M. 2006, Analysis of the March 13, (2005), earthquake in southeastern Iran based on teleseismic and regional distances. Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, 8, Nowroozi, A.A. (1976), Seismotectonic Provinces of Iran. Seismological Society of American Bulletin, 66, (4), Nowroozi, A.A. (2010), Probability of Peak Ground Horizontal and Peak Ground Vertical Accelerations at Tehran and Surrounding Areas. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167, Partabian, A., Nourbakhsh, A. & Ameri, S. (2016), GIS-based evaluation of geomorphic response to tectonic activity in Makran Mountain Range, SE of Iran, Geosciences Journal, doi: /s x Reiter, L. (1990), Earthquake Hazard Analysis, Colombia University Press, New York, 254p. Tchalenko, J. S. (1974), Recent destructive earthquakes in the Central Alborz: Geol. Surv. Iran. 29, Wiemer, S. (2001), A Software Package to Analyze Seismicity: ZMAP, Seismological Research Letters, 72 (3), Youngs, R., Coppersmith, K. (1985), Implication of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 75, Zamani, A, Hashemi, N. (2000), A comparison between seismicity, topography relief, and gravity anomalies of the Iranian Plateau, Tectonophysics 327,
17 Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, Vol.5, Issue 8, Summer Using probabilistic method to seismic hazard zoning in Sistan and Baluchestan Province Abdoreza Partabian 1, Samad Fotoohi 2 *, Hamed Rigi 3 1- Assistant Professor of geology, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran 2- Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran fotohi@gep.usb.ac.ir 3- Specialist at Office of Road and Urban Development of Sistan and Baluchestan Province Received: Accepted: Abstract In this study, Seismic hazard assessment is carried out for E and N including Sistan and Baluchestan province. There are several active faults in this area that many destructive earthquakes occurred along them. At the first, we identified these active structures and then the seismic catalogue of the period of the and historical earthquake have been investigated. 33 potential seismic sources have been identified. For each seismic source, seismic parameter estimated. Using these data and choosing convenient attenuation relationship in EZ-FRISK software in a network of dots with the distance of 20 *20 km we obtained peak ground acceleration on bedrock in sites for exceedance probability 10% and lifetime 50 years for a return period of 475 years. The results show Sistan and Baluchestan province is divided into 5 different seismic zones as follow: The area with PGA more than 0.35g that named Very High Seismic Zone and the area with PGA between 0.3 g to 0.35g that named High Seismic Zone includes parts northeast and east of northern part of province and in the middle of Sothern part of province. The area with PGA between 0.25g to 0.3g that named Moderate Seismic Zone, the area with PGA between 0.2g to 0.25g that named Low Seismic Zone and the area with PGA less than 0.2g that named very Low Seismic Zone mainly includes north east and south west parts of the province. Keywords: Probabilistic method, Seismic hazard zoning map, EZ-FRISK software, Sistan and Baluchestan province
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