GMPEs for Active Crustal Regions: Applicability for Controlling Sources

Transcription

1 GMPEs for Active Crustal Regions: Applicability for Controlling Sources Jonathan P. Stewart University of California, Los Angeles March 19, 2013 Oakland Airport Hilton

2 Outline GMPEs considered GMPE parameter space Distribution of M, R, site condition, style of faulting parameters, periods for which GMPEs are well constrained Inclusion of Class 2 events GMPE source terms Basis for large magnitude scaling Inclusion of HW effects Other factors not compiled (dip, Z tor, etc.)

3 GMPEs Considered GMPE Predecessors Notes Akkar & Boomer (2010): AB Akkar & Boomer (2007) Regional for Europe/Middle East Akkar & Cagnan (2010): AC - Regional for Turkey Bindi et al. (2011): BEA Bindi et al. (2006, 2009, Regional for Italy 2010) Bradley (2013): B Bradley (2010) - Report Regional for NZ; adjusts Chiou et al 2010 Faccioli et al. (2010): FEA Cauzzi & Faccioli (2008) Global data (mostly Japan). Graizer & Kalkan (2007, 2009, 2011): GK 2007: PGA only. 2009: spectra. 2011: synthesis Kanno et al. (2006): KEA - Mostly Japan data. ACR and SZ McVerry et al. (2006): MEA McVerry et al. (2000) Regional for NZ Pankow & Pechmann (2004): PP Spudich et al. (1999) Extensional regime Zhao et al. (2006): ZEA Mostly Japan data. ACR and SZ NGA West 2 (2013) AS (2013) AS (2008) Brief report BSSA (2013) BA (2008) CB (2013) CB (2008) CY (2013) CY (2008) Idriss (2013) Idriss (2008) No report

4 GMPE Parameter Space GMPE AB 2010 Data Region CL2? M min M max Europe, Middle East Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Y Categories Three: rock, stiff & soft soil Cont. Variables Range Mech. T min T max N, SS, RV AC 2010 Turkey Y V s m/s N, SS, RV PGA 2 BEA 2011 Italy Y Five: CEN A-E N, SS, RV, U PGA 2 B 2013 NZ N V s30 ; z 1 <200 to >1100 m/s N, SS, RV, RO PGA 10 FEA 2010 Global NM Four: CEN A-D V s m/s N, SS, RV PGA 20 GK 2011 Global N V s m/s N, SS, RV PGA 10 KEA 2006 Mostly Japan NM V s m/s NC PGA 5 MEA 2006 NZ Y Five: strong rock to v soft soil N, SS, RV, RO PGA 3 PP 2004 Extensional Y Two: rock, soil V s & 620 m/s N,SS PGA 2 ZEA 2006 Mostly Japan Y Four: hard rock to soft soil N, SS, RV, U PGA 5 AS 2013 Global U U U U U V s30 ; z 1 U N, SS, RV PGA 10 BSSA 2013 Global Y V s30 ; z m/s; N, SS, RV, U 0-3 km PGA 10 CB 2013 Global N V s30 ; z m/s; 0-10 km N, SS, RV PGA 10 CY 2013 California N V s30 ; z m/s; km N, SS, RV I 2013 Global U U U U U V s30 >450 m/s N, SS, RV PGA 10 NM = not mentioned NC = not considered U = unknown (due to lack of documentation)

5 Akkar and Bommer (2010) R GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M min max Europe, AB 2010 Middle East Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R max Y Categories Three: rock, stiff & soft soil Cont. Variables Range Mech. T min T max N, SS, RV Mag range: SS=5-7.6; N=5-7; RV:

6 Akkar and Cagnan (2010) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables AC 2010 Turkey Y V s30 Range m/s Mech. T min T max N, SS, RV PGA 2 Event breakdown: SS (70%), NS (28%), RS (2%) Mag range: SS: N: RV:?

7 Bindi et al. (2011) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories BEA 2011 Italy Y Five: CEN A-E Cont. Variables Range Mech. N, SS, RV, U T min T max PGA 2 # Records by event type: SS=61; NS=593; RV=87; U=28 Mag range: SS: N: RV: Equiv. NEHRP = B C D E NA (shallow)

8 Bradley (2013) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables B 2013 NZ N V s30 ; z 1 Range <200 to >1100 m/s Mech. N, SS, RV, RO T min T max PGA 10 # events by mechanism: M range of NZ data set by focal mechanism (Bradley, pers. comm.): SS: 4 < M < 6.28 N: 4 < M < 7.11 RV: 4< M < 6.37

9 Faccioli et al. (2010); Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables FEA 2010 Global NM Four: CEN A-D V s30 Range m/s Mech. T min T max N, SS, RV PGA 20 Breakdown of M by focal mechanism (CF 2008): SS 32 events RV 12 events N 16 events Breakdown by region (CF 2008): Japan 84% California 5% Italy, Iceland, Turkey 5% Iran 6%

10 CF 2008 data by Vs30

11 Grazier and Kalkan (2007, 2009, 2011) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables GK 2011 Global N V s30 Data added to NGA db (GK 2007): Turkey events 6 CA events: Anza, Hector Mine, Northridge, Parkfield, Yucaipa Uzbekistan, Georgia, Armenia events Range m/s Mech. T min T max N, SS, RV PGA 10 # Recordings by event type: SS=668; NS=13; RV=1144 Mag range: SS: N: RV:

12 Kanno et al. (2006) GMPE KEA 2006 Data Region CL2? M min M max Mostly Japan Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables NM V s30 Range m/s Mech. T min T max NC PGA 5 Focal mechanism not considered Added data from Turkey and CA:

13 McVerry et al. (2006) GMPE MEA 2006 Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max NZ Y Categories Five: strong rock to v soft soil Cont. Variables Range Mech. N, SS, RV, RO T min T max PGA 3

14 Pankow and Peechman (2004); Spudich et al. (1999) GMPE PP 2004 Data Region CL2? M min M max Extensional Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables Y Two: rock, soil V s30 Range 310 & 620 m/s Mech. T min T max N,SS PGA 2 Reported as useful to M events 14 have rake [-60; -140]. M SS range:

15 Zhao et al. (2006) GMPE ZEA 2006 Data Region CL2? M min M max Mostly Japan Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Y Categories Four: hard rock to soft soil Cont. Variables Range Mech. N, SS, RV, U T min T max PGA 5 # crustal recordings by focal mech: Japan: RV=250 SS=1011 N=24 Overseas: RV=123 SS=73 Overseas = Western US and Iran

16 Abrahamson and Silva (2013) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables AS 2013 Global U U U U U V s30 ; z 1 U N, SS, RV PGA 10 Range Mech. T min T max

17 Boore et al. (2013) GMPE BSSA 2013 Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables Global Y V s30 ; z 1 Range m/s; 0-3 km Mech. N, SS, RV, U T min T max PGA 10 Reported as useful to M 8 (RV and SS) and M 7 (N) M range: SS & RV: N: 3-7

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21 Campbell and Bozorgnia (2013) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables CB 2013 Global N V s30 ; z 2.5 Range m/s; 0-10 km Mech. T min T max N, SS, RV PGA 10 Reported as useful to M 8.5 (SS), 8.0 (RV), and 7.5 (N) Only data with R rup < 80 km used; model reported as useful to 200 km

22 Chiou and Youngs (2013) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables CY 2013 California N V s30 ; z 1 Range m/s; km Mech. T min T max N, SS, RV Reported as useful to M 8.5 (SS) and M 8 (RV and N)

23 Idriss (2013) GMPE Data Region CL2? M min M max Mag. Distance Site PSA Periods R min R max Categories Cont. Variables I 2013 Global U U U U U V s30 >450 m/s N, SS, RV PGA 10 Range Mech. T min T max

24 Outline GMPEs considered GMPE parameter space Distribution of M, R, site condition, style of faulting parameters, periods for which GMPEs are well constrained Inclusion of Class 2 events GMPE source terms Basis for large magnitude scaling Inclusion of HW effects Other factors not compiled (dip, Z tor, etc.)

25 GMPE Source Terms GMPE M-scaling equation (log units) Basis for Large M-scaling M-dependent R- scaling? HW AB 2010 Empirical Yes: linear on GS term RJB AC 2010 Empirical Yes: linear on GS term RJB BEA 2011 Empirical Yes: linear on GS term RJB B 2013 CY 2008 Yes: cosh term on M CY 2008 HW term FEA 2010 Empirical Yes: additive term to Rrup No GK 2011 Empirical Effectively No No KEA 2006 Empirical Yes: additive term to Rrup No MEA 2006 AS 1997 Yes: linear on GS term PP 2004 Boore et al No RJB AS 1997 HW term ZEA 2006 & correction factor for M 2 term Empirical Yes: additive term to Rrup No

26 GMPE Source Terms GMPE M-scaling equation (log units) Basis for Large M-scaling M-dependent R- scaling? HW AS 2013 Functional form guided by simulation; coefficients from data (?) Yes: linear on GS term DA HW term BSSA 2013 Empirical (compared to simulations) Yes: linear on GS term RJB CB 2013 Empirical (compared to simulations) Yes: linear on GS term Modelspecific HW term CY 2013 Functional form guided by simulation; coefficients from CY08 (data) Yes: cosh term on M I 2013 Empirical? No DA HW term DA = Donahue and Abrahamson hanging wall model

27 Summary Models using ACR data extend to M 7.9 (SS and RV). Max M for Normal is 6.9. Multiple models extend to R 400 km Widest range of V s30 is m/s; most models narrower ( m/s) Max. periods range from 2 to 20 sec. About 50% of the considered GMPEs include Class 2 events (aftershocks)

28 Summary Most models capture M-scaling with 2 nd order polynomial with parameters set from data. Most NGA models use simulations either to help establish functional form or to check results. Some models borrow M-scaling from other models (typically having more data) HW: most often captured with use of R jb ; three NGA models have specific HW term

29 References Akkar, S. and Bommer, J. J., Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV andspectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean region and the Middle East, Seism. Res. Ltrs, 81:2, Akkar, S. and Cagnan, Z., A local ground-motion predictive model for Turkey, and its comparison with other regional and global ground-motion models, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 100:6, Bindi, D., Pacor, F., Luzi, L., Puglia, R., Massa, M., Ameri, G., Paolucci, R., Ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian strong motion database, Bull. Eqk Eng., 9, Bradley, B. A., A New Zealand-specific pseudo-spectral acceleration ground motion prediction equation for active shallow crustal earthquakes based on foreign models, Bull Seism. Soc. Am., Submitted (used with permission). Chiou, B., Youngs, R., Abrahamson, N., and Addo, K., Ground-motion attenuation model for small-to-moderate shallow crustal earthquakes in California and its implications onregionalization of ground-motion prediction models, Earthquake Spectra, 26, Facciol, E., Bianchini, A., and Villani, M New ground motion prediction equations for T > 1 s and their influence on seismic hazard assessment, Proc. Univ. Tokyo Sym. on Long-Period Ground Motion and Urban Disaster Mitigation, March 17-18, 2010 Grazier, V., and Kalkan, E., Modular filter-based approach to ground motion attenuation modeling, Seism. Res Letters, 82:1, Kanno, T., Narita, A., Morikawa, N., Fujiwara, H. and Fukushima, Y. (2006). A new attenuation relation for strong ground motion in Japan based on recorded data, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96:3, , doi: / McVerry, G.H., Zhao, J.X., Abrahamson, N.A. and Somerville, P.G. (2006). New Zealand acceleration response spectrum attenuation relations for crustal and subduction zone earthquakes, Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 39:4, Pankow, K.L., and Pechmann,.C., The SEA99 ground-motion predictive relations for extensional tectonic regimes: Revisions and a new peak ground velocity relation, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 94:1, Spudich, P., Joyner, W.B., Lindh, A.G., Boore, D.M., Margaris, B.M., and Fletcer, J.B., SEA99: A revised ground motion prediction relation for use in extensional tectonic regimes, Bull Seism. Soc. Am., 89:5, Zhao, J. X., Zhang, J, Asano, A., Ohno, Y., Oouchi, T., Takahashi,T., Ogawa, H., Irikura, K., Thio, H. K., Somerville, P. G. and Fukushima, Attenuation relations of strong ground motion in Japan using site classification based on predominant period, Bull Seism. Soc. Am, 96,

30 AB 2010 AB 2010 NGA AC 2010 BEA 2011 B 2013

31 GK 2007 FEA 2010 KEA 2006 SEA99 ZEA 2006

32 GK 2007: PGA attenuation