Ground Motion Prediction Equation Hazard Sensitivity Results for Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Site (PVNGS)

Transcription

1 Ground Motion Prediction Equation Hazard Sensitivity Results for Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Site (PVNGS) M.Walling SWUS GMC Workshop 3 March 11, 2013

2 Hazard ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) sensitivity results Base Case Sensitivity Tests GMPE s Sigma Mixture Model Tau, Single Station Sigma (PhiSS), Single Station Path (PhiSP) Local Source Effects km Distant Source Effects km Results PGA AFE 10-4 and Hz AFE 10-4 and 10-6

3 Base Case Faults Over 30 faults sources Main fault contributor is Cerro Prieto (*) * Spelling corrected after Workshop #3

4 Base Case Background Sources 11 Background Zones Uniform rate of earthquakes Host source is the main background zone contributor

5 Base Case Ground Motion Prediction Equations Ground Motion Prediction Equations 5 NGA (2008) GMPEs Abrahamson and Silva Boore and Atkinson Campbell and Bozorgnia Chiou and Youngs Idriss Equally weighted with Epistemic Uncertainty Vs30m = 760 m/sec

6 GMPE Sensitivity Local source effects Normal Fault Mechanism GMPE s 5 NGA-W1&2, 2013AK, 2013BN (*) Distant source effects GMPE s 5 NGA-W1&2, 2006ZH, 2006ZH Modified for M>7.1 * Corrected after Workshop #3

7 Sensitivity to GMPE PGA & 0.5 Hz at AFE 1E-4 Distant Local

8 Sensitivity to GMPE PGA & 0.5 Hz at AFE 1E-6 Distant Local

9 Sensitivity to Sigma Mixture Model Combination of two normal distributions Sigma= 0.58 and 0.72 Effect is fat tail ~ 0.65 Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA, 0.5 Hz 1E-4 Distant source effects sensitivity Results for PGA, 0.5Hz 1E-4

10 Tornado Plot 1E-4 Sigma Mixture Mixture of two normal distributions with sigma = 0.58 and 0.72 Distant Local

11 Sensitivity to Tau Model Tau Model Linda to discuss Wednesday Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA 1E-4 Distant source effects sensitivity Results for 0.5Hz 1E-4, 1E-6

12 Tornado Plot 1E-4 Tau Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model Local

13 Tornado Plot 1E-4 Tau Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model Distant

14 Tornado Plot 1E-6 Tau Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model Distant

15 Sensitivity to Single Station Sigma Model PhiSS Linda to discuss Wednesday Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA 1E-4, 1E-6 Distant source effects sensitivity Results for 0.5Hz 1E-4, 1E-6

16 Local Source Sensitivity 1E-4 PhiSS Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model Local

17 Local Source Sensitivity 1E-6 PhiSS Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model Local

18 Distant Source Sensitivity 1E-4 PhiSS Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model Distant

19 Distant Source Sensitivity 1E-6 PhiSS Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model Distant

20 Sensitivity to Path effects Sigma Single Station Path (PhiSSP) Linda to discuss Wednesday North Path South Path Results at 0.5 Hz 1E-4 Hazard Epistemic Uncertainty Upper PhiSSP Median PhiSSP Lower PhiSSP

21 Tornado Plot 1E-4 PhiSP Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSP Model Distant

22 References Abrahamson, N.A., and Silva, W, (2008). Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA Ground-Motion Relations, Earthquake Spectra. 24, Abrahamson, N. A., W. J. Silva, and R. Kamai (2014). Update of the AS08 Ground-Motion Prediction Equations Based on the NGA-West2 Data Set, Earthquake Spectra, This issue (in press). Akkar, S., M.A. Sandikkaya, and J.J. Bommer (2013). Empirical ground-motion models for point- and exetneded-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East, Bull Earthquake Eng., online publication Bindi, D., F. Pacor, L. Luzi, R. Puglia, M. Massa, G. Ameri and R. Paolucci (2011). Ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian strong motion database, Bull Earthquake Eng., Vol. 9, pp Boore, D.M. and G.M. Atkinson (2008). Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for the Average Horozontal Component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped PSA at Spectral Periods between 0.01s and 10.0s, Earthquake Spectra. 24, Boore, D. M., J. P. Stewart, E. Seyhan, and G. M. Atkinson (2014). NGA-West2 Equations for Predicting Response Spectral Accelerations for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). Campbell, K.W., and Bozorgnia, Y. (2008). NGA Ground Motion Model for the Geometric Mean Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5% Damped Linear Elastic Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 s, Earthquake Spectra. 24, Campbell, K. W. and Y. Bozorgnia (2014). NGA-West2 Campbell-Bozorgnia Ground Motion Model for the Horizontal Components of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped Elastic Pseudo-Acceleration Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 sec, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). Chiou, B.S-J and Youngs, R.R. (2008). An NGA Model for the Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra, Earthquake Spectra. 24, Chiou, B-S.J. and R. R. Youngs (2014). Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA Ground Motion Model for Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). Grazier, V. and Kalkan, E. (2013). Graizer-Kalkan Ground-motion Prediction Equations for Western United States: 2013 Updates, U.S.G.S. Report Series 2013-XXXX, in press. Idriss, I.M. (2008). An NGA Empirical Model for Estimating the Horizontal Spectral Values Generated By Shallow Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra. 24, Idriss, I. M. (2014). NGA-West2 Model for Estimating Average Horizontal Values of Pseudo-Absolute Spectral Accelerations Generated by Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, in press. Zhao, J.X., Zhang, J., Asano, A., Ohno, Y., Oouchi, T., Takahashi, T., Ogawa, H., Irikura, K., Thio, H.K., Somerville, P.G., Fukushima, Y., and Fukushima, Y. (2006). Attenuation Relations of Strong Ground Motion in Japan Using Site Classification Based on Predominate Period, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 96,