Mapping UK. David Martin, University of Southampton. Open Data Workshop, Nottingham, 21 June 2011

Transcription

1 Mapping UK population over time David Martin, University of Southampton Open Data Workshop, Nottingham, 21 June 2011

2 Presentation overview Small area spatial population distributions The time dimension Exploiting Open Data Modelling and mapping population 24/7 Acknowledgements: Samantha Cockings, Samuel Leung, ESRC Award RES

3 Small area spatial population distributions Resource allocation: large areas > small areas Targeting services/marketing Site location decisions/transportation demand Denominator populations BUT limitations derived by traditional representational concepts and data sources: irregular geographical areas and the missing time dimension 3

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5 100% 80% 60% Conventional population map interpreted over time 5 istribution (%) Home Residence Office Work Outdoors Work All Employment Other Work Education by Stage All Education Others Roads Transport Hubs 40% 20% 0% 00:00 22:00 20:00 18:00 16:00 14:00 12:00 10:00 08:00 06:00 04:00 02:00 00:00 Time (Hour) Population D

6 Photos: David Martin, Sam Cockings 6

7 100% 80% 60% Integrated multi-source datasets interpreted over time 00:00 22:00 20:00 18:00 16:00 14:00 12:00 10:00 08:00 06:00 04:00 02:00 00:00 7 Population Distribution (% ). Home Residence Office Work Outdoors Work Retail Work Other Work School Education Higher Education Others Roads Transport Hubs 40% 20% 0% Time (Hour)

8 Photos: David Martin 8

9 Photos: David Martin 9

10 Space-time population modelling Where tried, the general approach is to start with nighttime population model/map and transfer population subgroups to specific daytime locations, e.g. schools, workplaces Various recent application examples, particularly driven by emergency planning and modelling of population exposure to hazards In reality, many different timescales to be modelled, not just simple daytime and night-time Longstanding difficulty of obtaining data with sufficient space/time resolution for the non-residential addresses

11 Modelling framework

12 Centroids, boundaries and grids Centroid locations and boundaries Centroid populations redistributed onto grid 12

13 time Origin centroid within area of influence j centroid i background layer b local extent d area of influence j t study area a

14 Data considerations

15 Residential Total population +/- external visitors Nonresidential Transport

16 Residential Locations Private dwellings Communal ests. Total population +/- external visitors Nonresidential Employment Education Temp accomm. Healthcare Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Generalised local Transport Road Rail Metro/subway Air Water

17 Residential Locations Private dwellings Communal ests. Data Sources - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) Total population +/- external visitors Nonresidential Employment Education Temp accomm. Healthcare Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Generalised local Transport Road Rail Metro/subway Air Water Acronyms: QLFS Quarterly Labour Force; DCSF Department for Children, Schools and Families; HESA Higher Education Statistics Agency; Survey; DCMS Department for Culture, Media and Sport; ALVA Association for Leading Visitor Attractions; DfT Department for Transport; TfL Transport for London; CAA Civil Aviation Authority

18 Locations Data Sources Residential Private dwellings Communal ests. - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) Total population +/- external visitors Nonresidential Employment Education Temp accomm. Healthcare Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Generalised local - Census, Annual Business Inquiry, QLFS - School pupil numbers, locations, HE statistics - Prison pops, VisitBritain, Annual Business Inquiry - Hospital Episode Statistics - VisitBritain - Annual Business Inquiry, commercial sources - ALVA Visitor Statistics, DCMS - ALVA Visitor Statistics, DCMS - Transport Road Rail Metro/subway Air Water Acronyms: QLFS Quarterly Labour Force; DCSF Department for Children, Schools and Families; HESA Higher Education Statistics Agency; Survey; DCMS Department for Culture, Media and Sport; ALVA Association for Leading Visitor Attractions; DfT Department for Transport; TfL Transport for London; CAA Civil Aviation Authority

19 Locations Data Sources Residential Private dwellings Communal ests. - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) Total population +/- external visitors Nonresidential Employment Education Temp accomm. Healthcare Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Generalised local - Census, Annual Business Inquiry, QLFS - School pupil numbers, locations, HE statistics - Prison pops, VisitBritain, Annual Business Inquiry - Hospital Episode Statistics - VisitBritain - Annual Business Inquiry, commercial sources - ALVA Visitor Statistics, DCMS - ALVA Visitor Statistics, DCMS - Transport Road Rail Metro/subway Air Water - Traffic count by road/area/vehicle, road map - National Rail station usage data - DfT Light Rail Statistics, TfL Tube customer metrics - CAA UK Airport Statistics - DfT Sea Passenger Statistics, London River Services Acronyms: QLFS Quarterly Labour Force; DCSF Department for Children, Schools and Families; HESA Higher Education Statistics Agency; Survey; DCMS Department for Culture, Media and Sport; ALVA Association for Leading Visitor Attractions; DfT Department for Transport; TfL Transport for London; CAA Civil Aviation Authority

20 Input data points Space-time centroid: hidden text Population capacity Spatial extent Time profile Area of influence e.g. primary school, output area centroid Pupil numbers Small (one cell) Term dates, school day Catchment area (modelled time/space) 20

21 Time profiles Variety of sources, but only need reasonable reference time profiles for each type of activity more detail can be added for specific sites or further subdivision of activity later Opening hours by various services readily obtainable (schools, etc.) Open but not linked! Quarterly Labour Force Survey for workforce time profiles (daytime, evening, night working, hours worked, days worked by SIC categories) - not Open or linked! 21

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23 Centroid set 1696 census OAs 3329 workplaces 211 schools and colleges 2 universities Hospitals, stations, airport, etc.

24 Transport Rasterised road background layer Meridian 2 v1.1 Release Motorway (blue) Trunk A- Road (green) Principal A- Road (grey) DfT NTM Area Type in the study area: Rural (green) Urban (peach) AADF Count Points (2006)

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26 Data considerations (DM ratings??) Some sources are explicitly Open (e.g. OS OpenData) Some sources are National Statistics : very clear definitions, standards and documentation (e.g. census); not formally Open, maybe Linked data Some sources are thoroughly documented: at least we understand the limitations, reference dates, completeness (e.g. DfT), limitations, temporal consistency (e.g. HES) Some sources are as yet not Open or Linked (e.g. ABI) or are not government sources (e.g. ALVA): varying metadata and reliability 26

27 Sample outputs

28 Southampton, 200m cells 16:00 Workplaces, FE & HE institutions still open, schools closed; low residential; very high central densities 28

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30 Conclusion Longstanding limitation of population mapping has been focus on static residential locations Availability of meaningful data describing the timegeography of population has been enduring obstacle Contemporary applications demand more realistic approach to space-time dynamics Real progress is possible in the light of increasingly Open data: might it ever be real-time? Data availability is rapidly facilitating new conceptual and methodological developments: still much further to go! 30

31 Acknowledgements ESRC Award RES ; Employee data from the Annual Business Inquiry Service, National Online Manpower Information Service, licence NTC/ABI07-P3020. Office for National Statistics 2001 Census: Standard Area Statistics (England and Wales): ESRC Census Programme, Census Dissemination Unit, Mimas (University of Manchester). National Statistics Postcode Directory Data: Office for National Statistics, Postcode Directories: ESRC Census Programme, Census Geography Data Unit (UKBORDERS), EDINA (University of Edinburgh). Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Economic and Social Data Service, usage number Meridian 2 v1.1 Release , Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database right