HOW TO SUPPORT SPATIAL DECISION MAKING PROCESS? Magdalena Wagner

Transcription

1 HOW TO SUPPORT SPATIAL DECISION MAKING PROCESS? Magdalena Wagner

2 Main objective The aim of the research is to support spatial planning with a set of innovative and comprehensive tools for decision making process.

3 Reasons for undertaking the research The issue of spatial management and governance is currently one of major challenges of modern urban planning.

4 Research questions What are the weaknesses of planning procedure and how the process could be improved? Which methods shall be used (and which shall be avoided)? Could the selected methods be applied in real world situations? How to take into account all essential conditions and adjust the model to the modern urban system and its doctrine?

5 Research design Structure of spatial decision making at local level (in Poland) A catalogue of possible solutions A model of parametric city governance

6 A catalogue of possible solutions Decision theory and decision making models Classical/rational model; bounded rationality model; retrospective decision making model Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) AHP, PROMETHEE, TOPSIS, and others Other methods derived from operational research, econometrics, mathematics, etc. (game theory, Monte Carlo method, graph theory, critical path analysis, decision trees, correlation, input-output model, numerical taxonomy, SWOT analysis and several techniques used in business sector (e.g. benefit cost analysis, Pareto principle and Pareto analysis, ABC classification, Eisenhower s matrix, NPV, ROI, etc.).

7 Example: consider buying a building plot f 1 utilities/services (water, electricity, etc.) if yes, then value 1; if not, then value 0; f 2 price of a plot (thousands, PLN Polish Zloty) f 3 ground surface (square metres) f 4 number of shops within d = 300 metres f 5 distance from city centre (kilometres)

8 Evaluation table

9 Global preference degree and final ranking

10 A catalogue of possible solutions Decision theory and decision making models Classical/rational model; bounded rationality model; retrospective decision making model Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) AHP, PROMETHEE, TOPSIS, and others Other methods derived from operational research, econometrics, mathematics, etc. (game theory, Monte Carlo method, graph theory, critical path analysis, decision trees, correlation, input-output model, numerical taxonomy, SWOT analysis and several techniques used in business sector (e.g. benefit cost analysis, Pareto principle and Pareto analysis, ABC classification, Eisenhower s matrix, NPV, ROI, etc.).

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13 Various criteria and various players Community Political preferences Environment Financial measures Spatial analyses Interdependies A1 A2 AX

14 Supportive and supported projects/activities A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A1 S S S A2 A3 S S A4 S A5 S S

15 Supportive and supported projects/activities Airport Logistic base Offices (business sector) R&D facilites Airport S S S S Logistic base Offices (business sector) R&D facilites Hi-tech industry facilities S S S S Hi-tech industry facilites S

16 Supportive and supported projects/activities 2nd degree R&D institute 1st degree Airport 1st degree Hi-tech facility

17 Planning Mission, vision, and mail goals Operational goals Projects/activites The balance of funds (verification of goals) and schedule

18 The process of development policy formulation Analysis Monitoring Planning Implementing

19 Expected research outcomes A comprehensive set of tools supporting decision making process in city policy making under uncertainty; The research would provide identification of strengths and weaknesses of traditional city governance; An evaluation of the discussed solutions in terms of spatial planning may probably enrich the discourse about these techniques;

20 CONCLUSIONS: The parametric city governance model The integration of selected methods with city development planning process Taking into account the spatial dimension (spatial analyses based on MCDA, i.e. selecting the best location for a project) Parameterisation of urban projects Parametric evaluation of the adopted city policy (use of the parameterised projects for evaluation of strategic goals)

21 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION