Predicting the Past. Anticipatory Analysis with Remotely Sensed Data Kevin Ayers. IBM Government Analytics Forum 2014 May 22, 2014

Transcription

1 Predicting the Past Anticipatory Analysis with Remotely Sensed Data Kevin Ayers May 22, 2014 Approved for public release,

2 Outline OUTLINE What is GEOINT? Anticipatory Analysis in a Remotely Sensed World Some Challenges Using Model-based Analytic Streams Association Rules Bayesian Modeling Transforming Stories into Data Creating a Data-driven Organization Source: / 2

3 What is GEOINT? What is GEOINT? GEOINT goes beyond telling you what is happening, where it is happening and when it is happening it also reveals how it is happening, why it matters and what is likely to happen next. GEOINT is the foundation of all intelligence disciplines. NGA s highly skilled analysts apply their tradecraft and advanced tools to evaluate imagery, maps, charts, multiple layers of foundation data, such as terrain, elevation and gravity, and the full spectrum of visible and invisible light. They seek to understand what is happening at any location on the Earth and to share their insight with mission partners to protect national security and respond to natural and manmade disasters IBM Corporation

4 What is GEOINT? What is GEOINT? Analysis of remotely sensed data using all available contextual information to understand: What Where Who Why How Used to anticipate similar events Source: 4

5 Anticipatory Analysis in a Remotely Sensed World Some Challenges 1. GEOINT is sampled data 2. It s mostly counting 3. All data are dirty 4. Orbital mechanics matter 5. Mental models create bias 6. Storytellers, not data scientists Source: 5

6 Model-based Analytic Streams Association Rules Modeling Anticipating the arrival of the next vehicle Text string entries only (e.g., SPT1.CRG2_R2D2/1/180.CPA1) Focus on patterns and configurations Will be used to create models of future behavior Not enough data to generate accurate rules modeling Source: 6

7 Model-based Analytic Streams Bayesian Probability Modeling What are the probabilities of likely events? Reliant on analytic models of previous behavior Used frequencies to generate priors Simple outcomes (e.g., Is the gate open? Yes, No, Not observed) Not enough observation data to create reliable probabilities P(B A) P(A) P(A B) = P(B) 7

8 Turning Stories into Data Turning Stories into Data Historical GEOINT stored as free-text narratives Use principles of text mining to extract focused data sets Sample size, analytic bias and variable lexicons create significant challenges Key question: Once extracted, is it correct? Source: child/cheat-sheets/regularexpressions/ 8

9 Becoming a Data-driven Organization Becoming a Data-driven Organization Educate the workforce Build the infrastructure Create some data Hire data scientists Reward the data junkies Source: ages/featuredrotator/washington%20dc%20landsat_fpir.jpg 9

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