INCA CE: Integrating Nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework Yong Wang ZAMG, Austria This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF
The Challenge of Severe Weather Warnings More detailed and accurate weather warning in time and space Better coordination between weather service and crisis management Optimised strategies of using weather warning information
INCA CE: multidisciplinary collaboration Nowcasting Warning Weather service Public authority Integrating nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention
INCA CE: transnational framework Real time data exchange Weather Forecast exchange Warning Warning communication Decision coordination
INCA CE: international R&D on nowcasting A state of the art, very high resolution in time and space, application oriented, real time analysis and nowcasting system INCA Operational implementation at each partner Common efforts on maintainence
INCA CE: WWRP/WMO FDP A Nowcasting Initiative: to improve public safety, the quality of life, economic prosperity and environmental quality by bringing researchers, scientists from operational centers and users together. A Nowcasting Initiative serves to demonstrate the benefits on integrating nowcasting with application in frame of a multidisciplinary and transnational cooperation.
INCA CE: WWRP/WMO FDP A Nowcasting Initiative addresses the objectives of WWRP, in particular, severe weather prediction; utilization of weather information; international and multidisciplinary research; knowledge transfer into operation, to end-users and feedback. INCA-CE evaluates the nowcasting technique and severe weather warning concepts in an operational environment to facilitate the transfer the research results into practices. Furthermore the INCA-CE contributes the overall WMO mission, which accelerates the technological transfer of innovations to developing countries through international cooperation and training.
INCA CE: WWRP/WMO FDP WWRP/WMO involvement helps INCA-CE a lot in development, information exchange and capacity building of mesoscale modeling, nowcasting tools, user-relevant verification and decision support systems and tools.
INCA CE: implementation over Central Europe A Nowcasting Initiative for Severe Weather Warnings and Improved Communication Strategies on a trans national Level The INCA-CE project is funded by Project budget: 3.3 million (4.7 million US$) Project Lead: ZAMG www.inca-ce.eu
INCA CE Objectives Reducing impact of weatherrelated natural disasters (e.g. windstorms, flooding, icing) by establishing a warnon-forecast system Improvement of risk management standards and methodology in order to enable management authorities to issue more detailed assessments and warnings. More precise estimation of weather-related risks and potential hazards in the private sector. Improvement in the accuracy and timeliness of severe weather warning
INCA CE: Relevance Operational Hydrology Civil protection Road management Prediction of heavy rainfall and associated flooding risks will help to set up efficient procedures in the management of mitigating actions for the protection of buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. Civil protection will benefit from a more comprehensive assessment of meteorological threats, and a more detailed and timely forecast, leading to more efficient warning protocols and dissemination strategies. Road safety will be enhanced by a more detailed road weather forecast made available both to the road management authorities as well as to the general public. While the frequency and strength of critical weather events and natural disasters cannot be reduced, a state-of-the-art information and warning system will be developed to better support public and private institutions in case of severe events
INCA CE project concept Building bridge between nowcasting and crisis management Feedback Communication Development Optimisation Translation Implementation Integration Evaluation Training Weather Services Public Authorities
WWRP/WMO FDP INCA CE realization The INCA CE project will be conducted in 2012 13 over Central Europe (CE) with four implementation phases: 1. Development of transnational strategy in road safety, civil protection and operational hydrology. (01. 05. 2012) Compilation and evaluation of regional methods currently in use. Provide solution strategies for optimal use of nowcasting and weather warnings in crisis management and risk prevention. 2. Optimization of nowcasting system (01. 2012 06. 2013) INCA development towards to the need of crisis management and risk prevention. Algorithmic extension; standard input and output interfaces. Improvement in data flow, quality control, computational efficiency. Observational data exchange in real time.
INCA CE realisation 3.Forecast Demonstration of the developed strategy and optimized nowcasting system through pilot implementations (06. 2012 09. 2013) National scale application and testing of the nowcasting system and warning strategies at user level. Establishment of structured feedback channels for final evaluation 4. Evaluation and feedback (06. 2012 09. 2013) Elaboration and compilation of transnational results, guidelines and recommendations Evaluation, feedback circle between nowcasting provider and crisis management and risk prevention Training for better understanding the warning strategies and nowcasting system
INCA CE core outputs Standradzied, optimised transnational warning strategies, guidelines A state of the art, very high resolution in time and space, application oriented, real time analysis and common nowcasting system INCA Nowcasting products translated into user realvant information Communication, feedback, training mechanism between nowcasting provider and application Nowcasting moduls for hydrology, civil protection and road management Real time obs. Exchange, standardized input/output interface, data flow, QC etc.
INCA CE core output Operational hydrology A web based, transnational weather information system using state of the art nowcasting methods Crisis management und risk prevention Civil protection Road management
WWRP/WMO FDP partnership and management Meteoswiss
INCA CE Central European Partnership Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Security Center Burgenland Provincial Government of Lower Austria - Fire Brigade and Civil Protection National Crisis and Disaster Management and Civil Protection Provincial Government of Lower Austria - Road Maintenance Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Fraunhofer-Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation Hungarian Meteorological Service Disaster Management Directorate of Somogy County Regional Agency for Environmental Protection 8 EU countries; 16 partners Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute Ministry of Interior of the Slovak Republic Environmental Agency of the republic of Slovenia CGS plus d.o.o. Innovative IT and Environmental Technologies Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Department for Crisis Management Poland
INCA CE Project: working packages Transregional strategy development Establishment of transregional working groups on hydrology, civil protection and road safety Evaluate current implementations Provide solutions strategies for similar regions Adaption and refinement of nowcasting system Algorithmic improvements in meteorological and hydrological nowcasting Precipitation nowcasting through merging of different data sources Incorporating topographic effects for wind nowcasting Realistic simulation of flash-floods and mudslide hazards Pilot implementations Implementation of the developed warning system Assessment of the added value from new developments Feedback/evaluation Quantitative and qualitative description of improvements achieved from outcomes of this project Compile recommendations for use of this system outside the CE area Strengths and limits of the system in view of hydrology, civil protection and road safety
INCA CE Project: actions
Development of strategy for civil protection Crisis management structure, tasks and the weather information chain in the partner countries Organization on country and regional level Main tasks with high weather impact Communication methods and alert systems Requirements and use of weather information Cross border cooperation, evaluation of the operations
Example: Civil Protection Recommendations INCA SWING (Severe Weather INterpretation Guide) Basic meteorological terms explained to the general public and Civil Protection authorities > increased meteorological understanding INCA MCPEX (Meteorological Civil Protection EXercise) Organization of practical exercises and trainings > information chain and communication tested INCA ISW (Impact of Severe Weather) Cross border, real time exchange of information about weather related damages to improve the preparedness and forecasting, predominantly in the bordering regions > Increased forecasting time of fast developing weather phenomena; more accurate specification of mesoscale aspects of large scale events
INCA: Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis NWP forecasts Geoinformation data Surface observations INCA Data QC, Integration, optimisation Radiosonde Satellite obsercations Radar observations Analyses and Nowcasting
Key requirments for INCA An operational nowcasting model: Straightforward with quality efficient stable, application oriented easy to maintain
Domain and Topography INCA AT Domain size 600 x 350 km Elevation range 100-4000 m Resolution Horizontal: 1 km Vertical: 150 m Time: 15 min 1h Update frequency 5 min 1h Availability + 20 min +30 min
INCA Analyses and forecasts 2-D Analyses und Forecasts Precipitation Precipitation type Cloudiness Global radiation 3-D Analyses und Forecasts Temperature Humidity Wind 2-D Convective Analyses Fields CAPE CIN LCL LFC Instability Indices (LI, Showalter,..) Trigger-Temperature-Deficit Equivalent Potential Temperature Moisture convergence Mass convergence Other derived 2-D Fields Snowfall line Icing potential Wind chill
INCA precipitation analysis
Temperature analysis 16 July 2007, 12Z 100 km MAE = 0.84 K
Cloud, Icing, Precipitation type, Visibility Snowfall Snow/Rain mix Rain Freezing rain Precip type
INCA CE: civil protection Automatic warnings for civil protection and for the general public Gust monitor Neusiedler lake Severe weather warnings http://www.interchalet.com
INCA CE: landslide warning Identification of regions with high disposition Slope Exposition Geotechnical structure Creeks history Analyse and forecast of extrem weather (INCA) Precipitation (1km, 15min) Temperature Hydrological variables Fusion of geo-related data Estimation of stability Activating Thunderstorm Several days lasting rainfall Snow melting Identification of hazard zones Warning
INCA & ensemble prediction Every 5min, very high resolution 1km + Precipitation forecast 1 Precipitation forecast 2 Precipitation. forecast 3.. Precipitation forecast n INCA CE: hydrology 1 2 + - Limit precipitation exceeded? Hydrological simulation Set of n hydrological forecast Evaluation 3 5 Continue in following time step Warning issued + - Issue warning? 4
Summary In frame of INCA CE project 24 international groups, not only from weather services, but also from hydrological services, public authorities of crisis management, civil protection and road management, will work together on: more detailed and accurate nowcasting system optimised strategies for using weather warning information by decision maker of various social and economic sectors coordinated warning of severe weather Save Life! Save Cost! Reduce Risks!
Thanks! The project has been startet: INCA Introduction to the Federal President of the Republic of Austria Dr. H. Fischer