The Response of Environmental Capacity for Malaria Transmission in West Africa to Climate Change
|
|
- Edward Byrd
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 AGU Fall Meeting December 9, 2011 The Response of Environmental Capacity for Malaria Transmission in West Africa to Climate Change Teresa K. Yamana & Elfatih A.B. Eltahir MIT Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering
2 Research Question How will environmental suitability for malaria transmission in West Africa respond to climate change scenarios predicted by current GCMs? In some scenarios, the effects of warming and changing precipitation act in opposite directions, so the overall effect of malaria transmission is unknown.
3 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND MALARIA
4 Anopheles gambiae mosquito ecology human infected by mosquito intrinsic parasite incubation 1st bloodmeal: acquire infection 2nd bloodmeal: transmit infection extrinsic parasite incubation adult oviposition pupa egg L4 larva L1 larva L3 larva L2 larva Bomblies, 2008
5 Anopheles mosquito ecology human infected by mosquito intrinsic parasite incubation 1st bloodmeal: acquire infection 2nd bloodmeal: transmit infection Adult longevity = f(t) adult extrinsic parasite incubation oviposition Temperaturedependent rates pupa egg L4 larva L1 larva L3 larva L2 larva Bomblies, 2008
6 Timescales of mosquito lifespan and malaria development EIP too long: no transmission Ideal for transmission Too hot for mosquito
7 Measure of climate suitability: Vectorial Capacity Vectorial Capacity: Number of inoculations from a single infected person per day VC ma 2 p n d m: mosquitoes per human a: bites per mosquito per day p: probability mosquito survives one day n: extrinsic incubation period d: average number of days until mosquito dies p,n and d depend on temperature m and a depend on temperature and rainfall
8 Measure of climate suitability: Vectorial Capacity Vectorial Capacity: Number of inoculations from a single infected person per day VC ma 2 p n d Temperature dependent equations m: mosquitoes per human a: bites per mosquito per day p: probability mosquito survives one day n: extrinsic incubation period d: average number of days until mosquito dies p,n and d depend on temperature m and a depend on temperature and rainfall
9 Measure of climate suitability: Vectorial Capacity Vectorial Capacity: Number of inoculations from a single infected person per day VC ma 2 p n d Temperature dependent equations Need Model m: mosquitoes per human a: bites per mosquito per day p: probability mosquito survives one day n: extrinsic incubation period d: average number of days until mosquito dies p,n and d depend on temperature m and a depend on temperature and rainfall
10 CURRENT CLIMATE IN WEST AFRICA
11 North-South Gradients in Temperature and Rainfall
12 North-South Gradients in Temperature and Rainfall North: Already hotter than ideal -> Warming decreases VC ideal temperature for malaria transmission VC ma 2 p n d South: Cooler than ideal -> Warming increases VC
13 Estimated malaria prevalence 18W,4N
14 PREDICTED CLIMATE IN WEST AFRICA
15 Change in climate predicted by IPCC Assessment Report 4 A1B emissions scenario
16 Expected effect of Climate Change Warming Current Temperature > 29C (North) < 29C (South) Change in Rainfall Less Rain More Rain Less Rain More Rain Overall Effect on Vectorial Capacity Decreased VC?? Increased VC Red: Higher Vectorial Capacity Green: Lower Vectorial Capacity Orange: Unknown
17 Changes predicted by IPCC models Box 1 Change in climate predicted by a GCM
18 Changes predicted by IPCC models Box 1 Maximum transmission Minimum transmission Change predicted by GCM
19 Changes predicted by IPCC models Box 1 Box 2 Box3 Maximum transmission Minimum transmission Change predicted by GCM
20 HYDREMATS: Hydrology Entomology & Malaria Transmission Simulator human infected by mosquito intrinsic parasite incubation 1st bloodmeal: acquire infection 2nd bloodmeal: transmit infection extrinsic parasite incubation adult oviposition pup a eg g L4 larva L1 larva L3 larva L2 larva Overland flow model will pool water and simulate pool losses to infiltration/evaporation Bomblies et al. Water Resources Research, 2008
21 PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM HYDREMATS
22
23
24
25 CONCLUSIONS
26 Conclusions Even under the worst case scenario, we do not expect to see a major increase of malaria transmission in this region Box 1: Higher VC, but still too low for transmission Box 2: Increase in VC due to increased rainfall balances the decrease in VC due to higher temperature Box 3: Small increase in VC over the 9 years The hottest and driest scenarios would eliminate transmission in Boxes 1 & 2, and substantially decrease transmission in Box 3
27
28 EXTRA SLIDES
29
30 Range of predicted changes in temperature Box CRU : temperature in rainy months Max rainy Model season increase predicting max increase Min rainy Model season increase predicting min increase GFDL/NOAA 2.3 NCAR - CCSM ECHAM 2.6 NCAR - CCSM University of Tokyo MIROC high-res 2.8 NCAR - CCSM University of Tokyo MIROC NASA/GISS - AOM high-res 2.6 University of Tokyo MIROC high-res 2.3 CSMK3
31 Range of predicted changes in rainfall Box CRU Max increase wettest Max decrease driest NCAR -105 GFDL/NOAA NCAR -206 GFDL/NOAA ECHAM + HOPEG -254 GFDL/NOAA ECHAM + HOPEG -212 GFDL/NOAA University of Tokyo MIROC NASA/GISS E-H -227 med-res
32 Temperature increases Current Temp > 29C (North) Current Temp <29 C More Rain Less Rain More Rain Less Rain? Expect Decrease Expect Increase?
33 Change in Vectorial Capacity due to temperature alone 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% -100% Chart Title Warm Wet Hot Dry VC ma Warm Wet: Maximum increase in precipitation and minimum increase in temperature Worst Case Scenario Hot Dry: Minimum Increase in precipitation and maximum increase in temperature Best Case Scenario 2 p n d
Teresa K Yamana *, Elfatih AB Eltahir. Abstract
RESEARCH Open Access Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS) Teresa K Yamana *, Elfatih AB
More informationPredicting Malaria Epidemics in Ethiopia
Predicting Malaria Epidemics in Ethiopia Eskindir Loha, Hawassa University Torleif Markussen Lunde, UoB 5th Conference on Global Health and Vaccination Research: Environmental Change and Global Health
More informationEPIDEMIOLOGY FOR URBAN MALARIA MAPPING
TELE-EPIDEMIOLOGY EPIDEMIOLOGY FOR URBAN MALARIA MAPPING @IRD/M Dukhan Vanessa Machault Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Laboratoire d Aérologie Pleiades days 17/01/2012 The concept of Tele-epidemiology The
More informationEnvironmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages
Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. Citation As
More informationMozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationThe Hydrology of Malaria: Field Observations and Mechanistic Modeling of the Malaria Transmission Response to Environmental and Climatic Variability
The Hydrology of Malaria: Field Observations and Mechanistic Modeling of the Malaria Transmission Response to Environmental and Climatic Variability by Arne Bomblies M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering
More informationFuture Climate Projection in Mainland Southeast Asia: Climate change scenario for 21 st century. Suppakorn Chinvanno
Suppakorn Chinvanno Topics Climate change scenarios development Future Climate Projection in Mainland Southeast Asia: Climate change scenario for 21st century Climate change scenarios development in Thailand
More informationTELE-EPIDEMIOLOGY URBAN MALARIA MAPPING
TELE-EPIDEMIOLOGY URBAN MALARIA MAPPING Ministère de la Défense Vanessa Machault Advances in Geospatial Technologies for Health 12-13/09/2011 Objective To develop a robust pre-operational methodology to
More informationZambia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Zambia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationVector Hazard Report: Malaria in Ghana Part 1: Climate, Demographics and Disease Risk Maps
Vector Hazard Report: Malaria in Ghana Part 1: Climate, Demographics and Disease Risk Maps Information gathered from products of The Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit (WRBU) VectorMap Systematic Catalogue
More informationSuriname. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Suriname C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationNational Cheng Kung University, Taiwan. downscaling. Speaker: Pao-Shan Yu Co-authors: Dr Shien-Tsung Chen & Mr. Chin-yYuan Lin
Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan Impact of stochastic weather generator characteristic on daily precipitation downscaling Speaker: Pao-Shan Yu Co-authors:
More informationClimate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project. November 28 th & 29 th, 2018
1 Climate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project November 28 th & 29 th, 2018 Climate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project 2 Early in the Closure Project, consensus was reached to assemble a long-term daily climate
More informationSt Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationCape Verde. General Climate. Recent Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationGrenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationMISSION DEBRIEFING: Teacher Guide
Activity 2: It s Raining Again?! Using real data from one particular location, students will interpret a graph that relates rainfall to the number of cases of malaria. Background The relationship between
More informationModeling the role of rainfall patterns in seasonal malaria transmission
Climatic Change (2012) 112:673 685 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0230-6 Modeling the role of rainfall patterns in seasonal malaria transmission Arne Bomblies Received: 7 July 2010 / Accepted: 21 August 2011 /
More informationAntigua and Barbuda. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Antigua and Barbuda C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
More informationA summary of the weather year based on data from the Zumwalt weather station
ZUMWALT PRAIRIE WEATHER 2016 A summary of the weather year based on data from the Zumwalt weather station Figure 1. An unusual summer storm on July 10, 2016 brought the second-largest precipitation day
More informationCuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Cuba C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationCLIMATE AND LAND USE DRIVERS OF MALARIA RISK IN THE PERUVIAN AMAZON,
CLIMATE AND LAND USE DRIVERS OF MALARIA RISK IN THE PERUVIAN AMAZON, 2001-2012 Ben Zaitchik Johns Hopkins University Beth Feingold, Denis Valle, Alex Sandoval, Carlos Alvarez Antonio, Rosa Patricia Zegarra
More informationtechnological change and economic growth more fragmented; slower, higher population growth middle emissions path
TACCIMO Climate Report: Flathead National Forest 08-28-2013 Table of Contents Introduction Historic National Regional Forest Metadata and Interpretive Guidance Page 1 2 3 6 9 12 Introduction The TACCIMO
More informationRegional seasonal forecasting activities at ICTP: climate and malaria
Regional seasonal forecasting activities at ICTP: climate and malaria WGSIP, MPI Hamburg, September 2012 Adrian M Tompkins (tompkins@ictp.it) Earth System Physics, ICTP, Trieste, Italy Climate and malaria
More informationMalawi. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Malawi C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationAverage temperature ( F) World Climate Zones. very cold all year with permanent ice and snow. very cold winters, cold summers, and little rain or snow
P r e v i e w Look carefully at the climagraph of Mumbai, India. What is the wettest month (or months) in Mumbai? What is the driest month (or months) in Mumbai? What effects might this city s climate
More informationClimate Variability and Malaria over the Sahel Country of Senegal
Climate Variability and Malaria over the Sahel Country of Senegal Ibrahima DIOUF CPC International Desks NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction 5830 University Research Court, College Park, Maryland
More information2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care
2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days
More informationWhat makes it difficult to predict extreme climate events in the long time scales?
What makes it difficult to predict extreme climate events in the long time scales? Monirul Mirza Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences University of Toronto at Scarborough Email: monirul.mirza@utoronto.ca
More informationImpacts of Climate Change on Public Health: Bangladesh Perspective
Global Journal of Environmental Research 5 (3): 97-15, 211 ISSN 199-925X IDOSI Publications, 211 Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health: Bangladesh Perspective M. Ruhul Amin, S.M. Tareq and S.H. Rahman
More informationKaronga Climate Profile: Full Technical Version
Karonga Climate Profile: Full Technical Version Prepared by: University of Cape Town November 2017 For enquiries regarding this Climate Profile, please contact Lisa van Aardenne (lisa@csag.uct.ac.za) or
More informationCITY OF FORT COLLINS AUGUST 2016 MONTHLY REPORT
CITY OF FORT COLLINS AUGUST 2016 MONTHLY REPORT MONTHLY REPORT: SEPTEMBER 6, 2016 COLORADO MOSQUITO CONTROL West Nile Virus Risk Contact CMC: City of Fort Collins Mosquito Control Program Broox Boze, Operations
More informationChiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC
Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.
More informationWhat is happening to the Jamaican climate?
What is happening to the Jamaican climate? Climate Change and Jamaica: Why worry? Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona Part 1 RAIN A FALL, BUT DUTTY
More informationPhysical Features of Monsoon Asia. 192 Unit 7 Teachers Curriculum Institute 60 N 130 E 140 E 150 E 60 E 50 N 160 E 40 N 30 N 150 E.
50 N 60 E 70 E 80 E 90 E 100 E 60 N 110 E 120 E 130 E 140 E 150 E 50 N 160 E 40 N 40 N 30 N 60 E 30 N 150 E Tropic of Cancer 20 N Tropic of Cancer 20 N 10 N 10 N 0 Equator 0 Equator 10 S 10 S 0 500 1,000
More informationCurrent and future climate of the Cook Islands. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Penrhyn Pukapuka Nassau Suwarrow Rakahanga Manihiki N o r t h e r n C o o k I s l a nds S o u t h e Palmerston r n C o o k I s l
More informationOn the use of satellite based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 47,, doi:10.1029/2010wr009744, 2011 On the use of satellite based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural
More informationMULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF A SOUTH INDIAN RIVER BASIN
MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF A SOUTH INDIAN RIVER BASIN P.S. Smitha, B. Narasimhan, K.P. Sudheer Indian Institute of Technology, Madras 2017 International
More informationFUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATES FROM STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING
FUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATES FROM STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING Arnoldo Bezanilla Morlot Center For Atmospheric Physics Institute of Meteorology, Cuba The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre
More informationName Period Date. Analyzing Climographs
Name Period Date Analyzing Climographs Climographs: It is often helpful to plot two different types of data on the same graph. For example, a climograph is a single graph that charts both the average temperature
More informationTemperature and rainfall changes over East Africa from multi-gcm forced RegCM projections
Temperature and rainfall changes over East Africa from multi-gcm forced RegCM projections Gulilat Tefera Diro and Adrian Tompkins - Earth System Physics Section International Centre for Theoretical Physics
More informationColorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report Month: December Year: 2016 Temperature: Mean T max was 39.7 F which is 3.1 below the 1981-2010 normal for the month. This
More informationThe CLIMGEN Model. More details can be found at and in Mitchell et al. (2004).
Provided by Tim Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK t.osborn@uea.ac.uk The CLIMGEN Model CLIMGEN currently produces 8 climate variables
More informationChanges in Timing of the South American Monsoon?
Changes in Timing of the South American Monsoon? A. Seth, UConn, Storrs M. Rojas, U Chile, Santiago S. Rauscher, ICTP, Trieste AAG 8, Boston IPCC Projections South American Monsoon analysis: - Vera et
More informationClimate modeling: 1) Why? 2) How? 3) What?
Climate modeling: 1) Why? 2) How? 3) What? Matthew Widlansky mwidlans@hawaii.edu 1) Why model the climate? Hawaii Fiji Sachs and Myhrvold: A Shifting Band of Rain 1 Evidence of Past Climate Change? Mean
More informationThe Netherlands approach for generating climate change scenarios
The Netherlands approach for generating climate change scenarios Bart van den Hurk, KNMI and many others Projections mean precipitation (2050/1990) with the MPI model A1B A2 +25% Winter Summer -50% Projections
More informationFuture pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario
Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario Kim D.W., Byun H.R., Lee S.M. in López-Francos A. (ed.). Drought management: scientific and technological innovations Zaragoza : CIHEAM Options
More informationElements of weather and climate Temperature Range of temperature Seasonal temperature pattern Rainfall
Climate Earth Science Chapter 20 Pages 560-573 Elements of weather and climate Temperature Range of temperature Seasonal temperature pattern Rainfall Overall rainfall Seasonal distribution of rainfall
More informationA Study of the Uncertainty in Future Caribbean Climate Using the PRECIS Regional Climate Model
A Study of the Uncertainty in Future Caribbean Climate Using the PRECIS Regional Climate Model by Abel Centella and Arnoldo Bezanilla Institute of Meteorology, Cuba & Kenrick R. Leslie Caribbean Community
More informationClimates of Earth. Lesson Outline LESSON 1. A. What is climate? 1. is the long-term average weather conditions that occur in a particular region.
Lesson Outline LESSON 1 A. What is climate? 1. is the long-term average weather conditions that occur in a particular region. 2. Climate depends on how average weather conditions throughout the year. B.
More informationColorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report Month: January Year: 2019 Temperature: Mean T max was 47.2 F which is 3.0 above the 1981-2010 normal for the month. This
More informationCOUNTRY CLIMATE BRIEF
COUNTRY CLIMATE BRIEF October 217 Future climate projections for Malawi Introduction This brief provides an overview of future climate change in Malawi, using results from the latest available climate
More informationCommunicating Climate Change Consequences for Land Use
Communicating Climate Change Consequences for Land Use Site: Prabost, Skye. Event: Kyle of Lochalsh, 28 th February 28 Further information: http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/ladss/comm_cc_consequences.html Who
More informationEnvironmental Influences on Infection Disease Risk: Studies at Different Spatial Scales
Environmental Influences on Infection Disease Risk: Studies at Different Spatial Scales Mark L. Wilson Department of Epidemiology Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology The University of Michigan
More informationResilience potential of the Ethiopian coffee sector under climate change
In the format provided by the authors and unedited. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION VOLUME: 3 ARTICLE NUMBER: 17081 Resilience potential of the Ethiopian coffee sector under climate change Justin Moat 1,2 *,
More informationMulti-model approach for projecting future climate change conditions in Central Vietnam
2011/03/03 at the ICSS-Asia 2011 conference Multi-model approach for projecting future climate change conditions in Central Vietnam Thanh NGO-DUC, Van Tan PHAN, Trung NGUYEN QUANG Department of Meteorology
More informationGuidance Note 3. Assessing Climate Risk. Annex 3
Guidance Note 3 Assessing Climate Risk Annex 3 e ANNEX 3 How can information on current climate conditions and trends be obtained? Example from World Bank project: KENYA ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN
More informationChapter 3 Section 3 World Climate Regions In-Depth Resources: Unit 1
Guided Reading A. Determining Cause and Effect Use the organizer below to show the two most important causes of climate. 1. 2. Climate B. Making Comparisons Use the chart below to compare the different
More informationINVESTIGATING THE SIMULATIONS OF HYDROLOGICAL and ENERGY CYCLES OF IPCC GCMS OVER THE CONGO AND UPPER BLUE NILE BASINS
INVESTIGATING THE SIMULATIONS OF HYDROLOGICAL and ENERGY CYCLES OF IPCC GCMS OVER THE CONGO AND UPPER BLUE NILE BASINS Mohamed Siam, and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir. Civil & Environmental Engineering Department,
More informationUrbanization, Land Cover, Weather, and Incidence Rates of Neuroinvasive West Nile Virus Infections In Illinois
Urbanization, Land Cover, Weather, and Incidence Rates of Neuroinvasive West Nile Virus Infections In Illinois JUNE 23, 2016 H ANNAH MATZ KE Background Uganda 1937 United States -1999 New York Quickly
More informationSouthern New England s Changing Climate. Raymond S. Bradley and Liang Ning Northeast Climate Science Center University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Southern New England s Changing Climate Raymond S. Bradley and Liang Ning Northeast Climate Science Center University of Massachusetts, Amherst Historical perspective (instrumental data) IPCC scenarios
More informationMEXICAN BROMELIAD WEEVIL REPORT 12 JANUARY 2013
1 MEXICAN BROMELIAD WEEVIL REPORT 12 JANUARY 2013 Ronald D. Cave 1, Teresa M. Cooper 1, and J. Howard Frank 2 1 Indian River Research & Education Center, UF, Ft. Pierce, FL 2 Entomology & Nematology Department,
More informationWhere is the tropical zone? What are three biomes found in the tropical zone?
Name CHAPTER 3 Class Date Climate 2 The Tropics SECTION BEFORE YOU READ After you read this section, you should be able to answer these questions: Where is the tropical zone? What are three biomes found
More informationManfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute. M. A. Lange 11/26/2008 1
Manfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute M. A. Lange 11/26/2008 1 Background and Introduction Mediterranean Climate Past and Current Conditions Tele-Connections
More informationAGROCLIMATOLOGICAL MODEL CLIMEX AND ITS APPLICATION FOR MAPPING OF COLORADO POTATO BEATLE OCCURRENCE
AGROCLIMATOLOGICAL MODEL CLIMEX AND ITS APPLICATION FOR MAPPING OF COLORADO POTATO BEATLE OCCURRENCE E. Kocmánková 1, M. Trnka 1, Z. Žalud 1 and M. Dubrovský 2 1 Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology,
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 1. Risk assessment model Those inputs (i.e. parameters that are fed to the model which are general are presented in Table S1. The outputs (i.e. parameters obtained by model calculations
More informationGLOBAL CLIMATES FOCUS
which you will learn more about in Chapter 6. Refer to the climate map and chart on pages 28-29 as you read the rest of this chapter. FOCUS GLOBAL CLIMATES What are the major influences on climate? Where
More informationClimate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them.
The Mississippi River in a Changing Climate By Paul Lehman, P.Eng., General Manager Mississippi Valley Conservation (This article originally appeared in the Mississippi Lakes Association s 212 Mississippi
More informationDownscaled Climate Change Projection for the Department of Energy s Savannah River Site
Downscaled Climate Change Projection for the Department of Energy s Savannah River Site Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference Charlotte, North Carolina: April 29 th, 2014 David Werth Atmospheric Technologies
More informationColorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report Month: December Year: 2017 Temperature: Mean T max was 47.2 F which is 4.4 above the 1981-2010 normal for the month. This
More informationWater Stress, Droughts under Changing Climate
Water Stress, Droughts under Changing Climate Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Outline of the presentation
More informationMarche Region Climate Analysis. By Danilo Tognetti 1, Leonesi Stefano 2
Marche Region. 2015 Climate Analysis. By Danilo Tognetti 1, Leonesi Stefano 2 Temperatures El Niño strongly influenced 2015, with a new average global record above the last-year record 0,14 C (for details
More informationOverview. 1 - Previous Eras 2 - Africa's current climate
Marine Science Lesson Enhancements based on Grade 11 & 12 curriculum in Physics, Chemistry & Biology Climate African climate Ocean Explorer Module 6 Copyright 2017 Climate part 2 Page! 1 of! 13 Overview
More informationAdopt a Drifter Lesson Plan by Mary Cook, Middle School Science Teacher, Ahlf Jr. High School, Searcy, Arkansas
Adopt a Drifter Lesson Plan by Mary Cook, Middle School Science Teacher, Ahlf Jr. High School, Searcy, Arkansas Do Ocean Surface Currents Influence Climate? Objectives Students will construct climographs
More informationThe hydrologic service area (HSA) for this office covers Central Kentucky and South Central Indiana.
January 2012 February 13, 2012 An X inside this box indicates that no flooding occurred within this hydrologic service area. January 2012 continued the string of wet months this winter. Rainfall was generally
More informationGlobal climate model scenarios downscaled for Canada. David Price Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton CIF e-lecture, 14 March 2012
Global climate model scenarios downscaled for Canada David Price Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton CIF e-lecture, 14 March 2012 Acknowledgements Slide 2 Dan McKenney Marty Siltanen Pia Papadopol Kevin
More informationBiomes There are 2 types: Terrestrial Biomes (on land) Aquatic Biomes (in the water)
Biomes There are 2 types: Terrestrial Biomes (on land) Aquatic Biomes (in the water) Terrestrial Biomes Grassland, Desert, and Tundra Biomes: Savanna Temperate grassland Chaparral Desert Tundra Chapter
More informationClimate Change Scenarios in Southern California. Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences
Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences Overview Climatology of Southern California Temperature and precipitation
More informationWhere is the tropical zone? What are three biomes found in the tropical zone?
Name CHAPTER 17 Class Date SECTION 2 The Tropics BEFORE YOU READ After you read this section, you should be able to answer these questions: Where is the tropical zone? What are three biomes found in the
More informationEFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON LANDSLIDE FREQUENCIES IN RATNAPURA DISTRICT, SRI LANKA- 2011
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON LANDSLIDE FREQUENCIES IN RATNAPURA DISTRICT, SRI LANKA- 2011 T. D. Rathnaweera, Student, (Email: tdr19862142@gmail.com) U. P. Nawagamuwa,Senior Lecturer, (Email: udeni@uom.lk)
More informationWHAT CAN MAPS TELL US ABOUT THE GEOGRAPHY OF ANCIENT GREECE? MAP TYPE 1: CLIMATE MAPS
WHAT CAN MAPS TELL US ABOUT THE GEOGRAPHY OF ANCIENT GREECE? MAP TYPE 1: CLIMATE MAPS MAP TYPE 2: PHYSICAL AND/OR TOPOGRAPHICAL MAPS MAP TYPE 3: POLITICAL MAPS TYPE 4: RESOURCE & TRADE MAPS Descriptions
More informationTailored Climate Information Resources for Malaria Control in Africa
Tailored Climate Information Resources for Malaria Control in Africa Emily Grover-Kopec International Research Institute for Climate and Society NOAA Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Tucson,
More informationSeasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a systematic review
DOI 10.1186/s12936-015-0849-2 RESEARCH Open Access Seasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a systematic review Robert C. Reiner Jr. 1,2,3*, Matthew Geary 4, Peter M. Atkinson 5,6,7,8, David
More informationCalifornia 120 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Tom Dunklee Global Climate Center
California 120 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued 11-01-2008 Tom Dunklee Global Climate Center This is my second updated outlook for precipitation patterns and amounts for the next 4 s of the current rainy
More informationOn the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in representing Caribbean current climate
On the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in representing Caribbean current climate Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães sullyandro@gmail.com Alexandre Araújo Costa Domingo Cassain Sales Universidade Estadual
More informationPrevention of malaria transmission around reservoirs: an observational and modelling study on the effect of wind direction and village location
Prevention of malaria transmission around reservoirs: an observational and modelling study on the effect of wind direction and village location Noriko Endo, Elfatih A B Eltahir Summary Background Many
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of
More informationColorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report Month: February Year: 2017 Webcam catching a hawk watching over the station. Temperature: Mean T max was 54.4 F which
More informationNARCliM Technical Note 1. Choosing GCMs. Issued: March 2012 Amended: 29th October Jason P. Evans 1 and Fei Ji 2
NARCliM Technical Note 1 Issued: March 2012 Amended: 29th October 2012 Choosing GCMs Jason P. Evans 1 and Fei Ji 2 1 Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia 2 New
More informationEffect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of leaching rain events in Florida and implications on nutrient management
Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of leaching rain events in Florida and implications on nutrient management C. Fraisse 1, Z. Hu 1, E. H. Simonne 2 May 21, 2008 Apopka, Florida
More informationMapping Malaria Risk in Dakar, Senegal. Marion Borderon, Sébastien Oliveau
Mapping Malaria Risk in Dakar, Senegal Marion Borderon, Sébastien Oliveau When entomology meets social sciences Framework of the research - ANR ACTU PALU - interdisciplinary project Data & method Social
More informationC Y P A D A P T. M. Petrakis C. Giannakopoulos G. Lemesios.
Development of a national strategy for adaptation to climate change adverse impacts in Cyprus C Y P A D A P T National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development
More informationProjection of climate change in Cyprus using a selection of regional climate models
Projection of climate change in Cyprus using a selection of regional climate models C. Giannakopoulos, G. Lemesios, M. Petrakis, Th. Kopania, N. Roukounakis National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
More informationMore extreme precipitation in the world s dry and wet regions
More extreme precipitation in the world s dry and wet regions Markus G. Donat, Andrew L. Lowry, Lisa V. Alexander, Paul A. O Gorman, Nicola Maher Supplementary Table S1: CMIP5 simulations used in this
More informationWhat is insect forecasting, and why do it
Insect Forecasting Programs: Objectives, and How to Properly Interpret the Data John Gavloski, Extension Entomologist, Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Initiatives Carman, MB R0G 0J0 Email: jgavloski@gov.mb.ca
More informationStudying 2006 dry and 2007 wet events using surface observations and NCEP Reanalysis
Studying 2006 dry and 2007 wet events using surface observations and NCEP Reanalysis Xiquan Dong, Baike Xi, and Aaron Kennedy University of North Dakota 1 Objectives 1. How do seasonal cycles of observed
More informationNairobi Climate Profile: Full Technical Version
Nairobi Climate Profile: Full Technical Version Prepared by: University of Cape Town November 2017 For enquiries regarding this Climate Profile, please contact Lisa van Aardenne (lisa@csag.uct.ac.za) 2
More informationThe Current SLE/WN Epidemic Assesment
FMEL Arboviral Epidemic Risk Assessment: First Update for 2014 Week 18 (May 1, 2014) The Current SLE/WN Epidemic Assesment Funding for the Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory Epidemic Risk Model ended
More information2010 Growing Season. Prince Edward County Report
2010 Growing Season Prince Edward County Report WIN Staff November 10, 2010 Overview It is always remarkable how each growing season is unique as a result of yearly variations in weather. Changes occur
More informationProgram Update. Lisle Township August 2018 Status Report SEASON PERSPECTIVE
Lisle Township August 2018 Status Report SEASON PERSPECTIVE Introduction. Weather conditions critically affect the seasonal mosquito population. Excessive rainfall periods trigger hatches of floodwater
More information